Food Stamp Program

Statistical Validity of Agriculture's Payment Error-Rate Estimates Gao ID: RCED-87-4 October 30, 1986

In response to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the quality control (QC) system that the Food and Nutrition Service (FNS) used to set fiscal year (FY) 1984 error rates in Food Stamp Program benefit payments and to assess sanctions against states for their errors.

GAO noted that FNS annually estimates each state's food stamp payment error rate in a two-step process, using statistically selected FNS and state case samples. FNS: (1) computes a regressed error rate based on a review of its subsample of the state's sample; (2) adjusts the regressed error rate upward if the state did not complete the number of sample case reviews prescribed in its approved QC review plan; and (3) determines the state's sanction from the resulting number, which is the official error rate. A sanction involves reducing the federally funded share of a state's administrative costs by a predetermined percentage tied to a target error rate. GAO found that, overall, FNS statistical policies for estimating the regressed and official error rates generally conformed with accepted statistical theory. GAO believes that, because small changes in the official error rates could affect sanction amounts, FNS should use the soundest practical statistical methods in developing the payment error-rate estimates.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

Director: Team: Phone:


The Justia Government Accountability Office site republishes public reports retrieved from the U.S. GAO These reports should not be considered official, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Justia.