Decennial Census

Preliminary Observations on the Results to Date of the Dress Rehearsal and the Census Bureau's Readiness for 2000 Gao ID: T-GGD-98-178 July 30, 1998

The census dress rehearsal now underway at three sites is the last remaining field test before the decennial census is administered. Within the constraints and limitations imposed by the dress rehearsal's setting, the Census Bureau so far has generally shown an ability to carry out the dress rehearsal at the three locations according to its operational timetable and plan. Some census activities, such as staffing the dress rehearsal operations and completing field operations on schedule, appear to have gone well. However, the dress rehearsal experiences also have underscored the fact that the Bureau still faces major obstacles to a cost-effective census. For example, mail response rates remain problematic, and local partnerships had limited success. Moreover, the Bureau's general ability to conduct the dress rehearsal according to its operational plan, although encouraging, is not necessarily a predictor of success in 2000. Because the dress rehearsal was performed at three sites, the capacity of regional and headquarters offices, as well as several essential census-taking operations, could not be fully tested under census-like conditions. Finally, the most important outcome measure--the quality of the census data collected--is not yet available.

GAO noted that: (1) when it last testified before Congress in March 1998, GAO noted that although the Census Bureau had made progress in addressing some of the problems that occurred during the 1990 Census, key decennial census activities faced continuing challenges; (2) the census dress rehearsal, under way at three sites, is the last remaining field test before the decennial census is administered; (3) within the constraints and limitations imposed by the dress rehearsal setting, the Bureau to date has shown a general ability to implement the dress rehearsal at the three locations according to its operational timetable and plan; (4) certain census activities, such as staffing the dress rehearsal operations and completing field operations on schedule, appear to have gone well; (5) however, the dress rehearsal experiences also have underscored the fact that the Bureau still faces major obstacles to a cost-effective census; (6) for example, mail response rates remain problematic, and local partnerships had limited success; (7) further, the Bureau's general ability to conduct the dress rehearsal according to its operational plan, while encouraging, is not necessarily a predictor of success in 2000; (8) because the dress rehearsal was performed at three sites, the capacity of regional and headquarters offices, as well as a number of essential census-taking operations, could not be fully tested under census-like conditions; and (9) the most important outcome measure--the quality of the census data collected--is not yet available.



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