2010 Census
Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Census Would Not Be Feasible Gao ID: GAO-04-1077T September 14, 2004The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) has typically excluded from the census private citizens residing abroad, but included overseas members of the military, federal civilian employees, and their dependents (in the 1990 and 2000 Censuses, these individuals were included in the numbers used for apportioning Congress). The Bureau recently tested the practicality of counting all overseas Americans. GAO was asked to testify on the test's initial results. Our statement is based on our published reports, one of which is being released at today's hearing.
The test results suggest that counting all American citizens overseas as part of the census would require enormous resources, but still not yield data at the level of quality needed for purposes of congressional apportionment. Participation in the test was poor, with just 5,390 questionnaires returned from the three test sites. Moreover, as the Bureau's experience during the 2000 Census shows, securing better participation in a global count might not be practical. The Bureau spent $374 million on a months-long publicity campaign that consisted of television and other advertising that helped produce a 72-percent return rate. Replicating the same level of effort on a worldwide basis would be difficult, and still would not produce a complete count. Further, the low participation levels in the test made the unit cost of each response relatively high at around $1,450. The test results highlighted other obstacles to a cost-effective count including the resources needed to address country-specific problems and the difficulties associated with managing a complex operation from thousands of miles away. The approach used to count the overseas population in the 2004 test--a voluntary survey that largely relies on marketing to secure a complete count, lacks the basic building blocks of a successful census such as a complete and accurate address list and the ability to follow-up with nonrespondents. As the Bureau already faces the near-daunting task of securing a successful stateside count in 2010, having to simultaneously count Americans abroad would only add to the challenges it faces.
GAO-04-1077T, 2010 Census: Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Census Would Not Be Feasible
This is the accessible text file for GAO report number GAO-04-1077T
entitled '2010 Census: Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the
Census Would Not Be Feasible' which was released on September 14, 2004.
This text file was formatted by the U.S. Government Accountability
Office (GAO) to be accessible to users with visual impairments, as part
of a longer term project to improve GAO products' accessibility. Every
attempt has been made to maintain the structural and data integrity of
the original printed product. Accessibility features, such as text
descriptions of tables, consecutively numbered footnotes placed at the
end of the file, and the text of agency comment letters, are provided
but may not exactly duplicate the presentation or format of the printed
version. The portable document format (PDF) file is an exact electronic
replica of the printed version. We welcome your feedback. Please E-mail
your comments regarding the contents or accessibility features of this
document to Webmaster@gao.gov.
This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright
protection in the United States. It may be reproduced and distributed
in its entirety without further permission from GAO. Because this work
may contain copyrighted images or other material, permission from the
copyright holder may be necessary if you wish to reproduce this
material separately.
Testimony:
Before the Subcommittee on Technology, Information Policy,
Intergovernmental Relations and the Census, Committee on Government
Reform, House of Representatives:
For Release on Delivery Expected at 2:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, September
14, 2004:
2010 census:
Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Census Would Not Be
Feasible:
Statement of Patricia A. Dalton Director, Strategic Issues:
[Hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-1077T]:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-04-1077T, a report to the Subcommittee on
Technology, Information Policy, Intergovernmental Relations and the
Census, Committee on Government Reform, House of Representatives
Why GAO Did This Study:
The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) has typically excluded from the census
private citizens residing abroad, but included overseas members of the
military, federal civilian employees, and their dependents (in the 1990
and 2000 Censuses, these individuals were included in the numbers used
for apportioning Congress). The Bureau recently tested the practicality
of counting all overseas Americans. GAO was asked to testify on the
test‘s initial results. Our statement is based on our published
reports, one of which is being released at today‘s hearing.
What GAO Found:
The test results suggest that counting all American citizens overseas
as part of the census would require enormous resources, but still not
yield data at the level of quality needed for purposes of
congressional apportionment. Participation in the test was poor, with
just 5,390 questionnaires returned from the three test sites.
Enumerating Americans in Mexico and France:
[See PDF for image]
[End of figure]
Moreover, as the Bureau‘s experience during the 2000 Census shows,
securing better participation in a global count might not be practical.
The Bureau spent $374 million on a months-long publicity campaign that
consisted of television and other advertising that helped produce a 72-
percent return rate. Replicating the same level of effort on a
worldwide basis would be difficult, and still would not produce a
complete count. Further, the low participation levels in the test made
the unit cost of each response relatively high at around $1,450.
The test results highlighted other obstacles to a cost-effective count
including the resources needed to address country-specific problems and
the difficulties associated with managing a complex operation from
thousands of miles away. The approach used to count the overseas
population in the 2004 test”a voluntary survey that largely relies on
marketing to secure a complete count, lacks the basic building blocks
of a successful census such as a complete and accurate address list
and the ability to follow-up with nonrespondents. As the Bureau already
faces the near-daunting task of securing a successful stateside count
in 2010, having to simultaneously count Americans abroad would only
add to the challenges it faces.
What GAO Recommends:
In our latest report, we suggest that Congress may wish to consider
eliminating funding for additional research related to counting
Americans abroad as part of the decennial census. However, funding for
the evaluation of the 2004 test should continue as planned to inform
congressional decision making. Should Congress desire better data on
overseas Americans for certain policy-making and other
nonapportionment purposes, Congress may wish to consider funding
research on the feasibility of counting this group using alternatives
to the decennial census. To facilitate this decision making, we are
recommending that the Bureau, in consultation with Congress, research
options such as using a separate survey. The Bureau agreed with our
conclusions and recommendations.
www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-1077T.
To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on
the link above. For more information, contact Patricia A. Dalton at
(202) 512-6806 or daltonp@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:
I am pleased to be here today to discuss the feasibility of counting
Americans residing abroad. As you know, last year we named the 2010
Census a major management challenge and program risk because of the
numerous operational and other questions facing a cost-effective head
count, the price tag of which now exceeds $11 billion, according to
U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates.
The issue of whether and how to count overseas Americans are two such
questions. How they get resolved could have implications for the cost
and quality of the 2010 Census, as well as for the various purposes for
which the data are used, congressional apportionment among them.
Advocates of an overseas census believe that better demographic data on
Americans abroad would be useful for a variety of policy-making and
business purposes, and would make their unique interests more visible
to Congress. The Constitution and federal statutes give the Bureau
discretion over whether to count Americans abroad. With few exceptions,
the Bureau has historically counted only "federally affiliated"
individuals, a group consisting of members of the military, federal
civilian employees, and their dependents.
Following the 2000 Census, in response to congressional direction and
the concerns of various private organizations, the Bureau launched a
test enumeration to assess the practicality of counting both private
and federally affiliated U.S. citizens abroad. The key part of this
effort, the data collection phase, took place between February and July
2004 in three countries: France, Kuwait, and Mexico. The cost of the
test--from initial planning in 2003 through final evaluations in 2005-
-will be about $7.8 million, according to Bureau estimates.
At the Subcommittee's request, we have evaluated the test's design and
execution, and have published two reports on the subject, the latest of
which we are releasing this afternoon.[Footnote 1] My remarks today
summarize the results of our research. Our findings are based on our
on-site observations in Paris, France, and Guadalajara, Mexico; as well
as our analysis of applicable planning, legal, and other documents, and
interviews with Bureau officials and representatives of private
organizations who helped the Bureau promote the census at the three
test sites. We conducted our audit work from June 2003 through July
2004, in accordance with generally accepted government auditing
standards.
Although the complete results of the test will not be available until
next year when the Bureau expects to finalize its evaluations, two
important findings have already emerged.
First, the 2004 overseas test was an extremely valuable exercise in
that it revealed the numerous obstacles to counting Americans abroad
via the decennial census. The tools and resources the Bureau has
available to enumerate this group, largely for reasons of practicality,
cannot cost-effectively surmount these obstacles, and it is unlikely
that any refinements or additional resources would generate
substantially better data, and certainly not at the level of quality
needed for purposes of congressional apportionment. Consequently,
Congress may wish to consider eliminating funding for any additional
research and testing related to counting this group as part of the
decennial headcount, including tests planned for 2006 and 2008
(although funding for completing the evaluation of the 2004 test should
continue as planned).
Second, to the extent that better data on overseas Americans might be
useful for various policy-making and other nonapportionment purposes
that do not need as much precision, such information does not need to
be collected as part of the decennial census. It will be important for
Congress, the Bureau, and stakeholders to work together to explore the
feasibility of counting overseas Americans using alternatives to the
decennial census such as a separate survey and/or administrative
records.
Background:
Historically, the census has focused on counting people stateside,
although various overseas population groups have been included in the
census at different times. For example, as shown in table 1, over the
last century, the Bureau has generally included federally affiliated
individuals and their dependents, but except for the 1960 and 1970
Censuses, has excluded private citizens such as retirees, students, and
business people. In addition, only the 1970, 1990, and 2000 Censuses
used counts of federally affiliated personnel for purposes of
apportioning Congress. As a result, although estimates exceed four
million people, the precise number of Americans residing abroad is
unknown.
Table 1: Treatment of Certain Population Groups Living or Working
Overseas in the Decennial Censuses, 1900-2000:
Population group[A]: U.S. military personnel stationed abroad or at
sea and their dependents;
1900: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1910: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1920: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1930: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1940: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1950: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1960: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1970: Included in the population count used for congressional
apportionment;
1980: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1990: Included in the population count used for congressional
apportionment;
2000: Included in the population count used for congressional
apportionment.
Population group[A]: Federal civilian employees stationed abroad and
their dependents;
1900: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1910: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1950: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1960: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1970: Included in the population count used for congressional
apportionment;
1980: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1990: Included in the population count used for congressional
apportionment;
2000: Included in the population count used for congressional
apportionment.
Population group[A]: Persons abroad working for the American Red Cross
or in the consular service and their dependents;
1920: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1930: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1940: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment.
Population group[A]: Private U.S. citizens abroad for an extended
period;
1960: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment;
1970: Counted in the census, but not included in the population
totals used for apportionment.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Americans Overseas in the U.S.
Censuses, Technical Paper 62 (Washington, D.C.: November 1993).
[A] This table excludes the officers and crew of merchant marine
vessels because available data were unclear as to whether these groups
were included in the overseas enumerations or the stateside counts in
the decennial censuses.
[End of table]
The Constitution and federal statutes give the Bureau discretion over
whether to count Americans overseas.[Footnote 2] Thus, Congress would
need to enact legislation if it wanted to require the Bureau to include
overseas Americans in the 2010 Census. Nevertheless, in recent years,
the Bureau's policy of excluding private citizens from the census has
been questioned. For example, advocates of an overseas census claim
that better data on this population group would be useful for a variety
of policy-making and other purposes. Moreover, the overseas population
could, in some instances, affect congressional apportionment.
More generally, the rights and obligations of overseas Americans under
various federal programs vary from activity to activity. For example,
U.S. citizens residing overseas are taxed on their worldwide income,
can vote in federal elections, and can receive Social Security
benefits, but they are generally not entitled to Medicare benefits, or,
if they reside outside of the United States for more than 30 days,
Supplemental Security Income.
Cost-Effectiveness Would be Problematic:
The initial results of the overseas census test suggest that counting
Americans abroad on a global basis would require enormous resources and
still not yield data that are comparable in quality to the stateside
count. Indeed, participation in the test was low and relatively costly
to obtain, and on-site supervision of field activities proved
difficult. The test made clear that the current approach to counting
Americans abroad--a voluntary survey that relies largely on marketing
to get people to participate--by itself cannot secure a successful head
count.
Securing an Acceptable Response Rate Would Be Challenging and Costly:
To promote the overseas census test the Bureau relied on third parties-
-American organizations and businesses in the three countries--to
communicate to their members and/or customers that an overseas
enumeration of Americans was taking place and to make available to U.S.
citizens either the paper questionnaire or Web site address where
Americans could complete their forms via the Internet.
Still, the response to the overseas census test was disappointing. The
5,390 responses the Bureau received from the three test countries was
far below what the Bureau planned for when it printed the
questionnaires. While the Bureau ordered 520,000 paper forms for the
three test sites, only 1,783 census forms were completed and returned.
Of these, 35 were Spanish language forms that were made available in
Mexico. The remaining 3,607 responses were completed via the Internet.
Table 2 shows the number of census questionnaires that the Bureau
printed for each country and the number of responses it actually
received in both the paper format and via the Internet.
Table 2: Comparison of Responses Received for 2004 Overseas Census
Test:
Test sites: Mexico;
Number of forms printed for each test site: 430,000[A];
Number of responses by mode: Paper: 869[B];
Number of responses by mode: Internet: 1,130;
Total number of responses received: 1,999.
Test sites: France;
Number of forms printed for each test site: 75,000;
Number of responses by mode: Paper: 886;
Number of responses by mode: Internet: 2,219;
Total number of responses received: 3,105.
Test sites: Kuwait;
Number of forms printed for each test site: 15,000;
Number of responses by mode: Paper: 28;
Number of responses by mode: Internet: 258;
Total number of responses received: 286.
Total;
Number of forms printed for each test site: 520,000;
Number of responses by mode: Paper: 1,783;
Number of responses by mode: Internet: 3,607;
Total number of responses received: 5,390.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
[A] This includes 100,000 forms printed in Spanish.
[B] This includes 35 Spanish forms returned.
[End of table]
In May, to help boost the lagging participation, the Bureau initiated a
paid advertising campaign that included print and Internet ads in
France, and print and radio ads in Mexico. (See fig. 1 for examples of
the ads used in the paid advertising campaign). According to a Bureau
official, the ads had only a slight impact on response levels.
Figure 1: Census Bureau Ads Placed in the International Herald Tribune:
[See PDF for image]
[End of figure]
Moreover, the Bureau's experience during the 2000 Census suggests that
securing a higher return rate on an overseas census would be an
enormous challenge and may not be feasible. The Bureau spent $374
million on a comprehensive marketing, communications, and partnership
effort for the 2000 Census. The campaign began in the fall of 1999 and
continued past Census Day (April 1, 2000). Specific elements included
television, radio, and other mass media advertising; promotions and
special events; and a census-in-schools program. Thus, over a period of
several months, the American public was on the receiving end of a
steady drumbeat of advertising aimed at publicizing the census and
motivating them to respond. This endeavor, in concert with an ambitious
partnership effort with governmental, private, social service, and
other organizations helped produce a return rate of 72
percent.[Footnote 3]
Replicating this level of effort on a worldwide basis would be
impractical, and still would not produce a complete count. Indeed, even
after the Bureau's aggressive marketing effort in 2000, it still had to
follow-up with about 42 million households that did not return their
census forms.
Unit Costs Were High:
Because the overseas test had such low participation levels, the unit
cost of each response was high--roughly $1,450 for each returned
questionnaire, based on the $7.8 million the Bureau spent preparing
for, implementing, and evaluating the 2004 overseas test. Although the
two surveys are not directly comparable because the 2000 Census costs
covered operations not used in the overseas test, the unit cost of the
2000 Census--which was the most expensive in our nation's history--was
about $56 per household.
Ensuring a Smooth Enumeration Could Stretch the Bureau's Resources:
Not surprisingly, as with any operation as complex as the overseas
enumeration test, various unforeseen problems arose. The difficulties
included grappling with country-specific issues and overseeing the
contractor responsible for raising public awareness of the census at
the three test sites. While the Bureau was able to address them, it is
doubtful that the Bureau would have the ability to do so in 2010 should
there be a full overseas enumeration.
Country-specific Issues Created Implementation Problems:
The Bureau encountered a variety of implementation problems at each of
the test sites. Although such difficulties are to be expected given the
magnitude of the Bureau's task, they underscore the fact that there
would be no economy of scale in ramping up to a full enumeration of
Americans abroad. In fact, just the opposite would be true. Because of
the inevitability of country-specific problems, rather than conducting
a single overseas count based on a standard set of rules and procedures
(as is the case with the stateside census), the Bureau might end up
administering what amounts to dozens of separate censuses--one for each
of the countries it enumerates--each with its own set of procedures
adapted to each country's unique requirements. The time and resources
required to do this would likely be overwhelming and detract from the
Bureau's stateside efforts.
For example, addressing French privacy laws that restrict the
collection of personal data such as race and ethnic information took a
considerable amount of negotiation between the two countries, and was
ultimately resolved after a formal agreement was developed. Likewise,
in Kuwait, delivery of the census materials was delayed by several
weeks because they were accidentally addressed to the wrong contractor.
On-site Supervision of Contractor Was Problematic:
The Bureau hired a public relations firm to help market participation
in the test. Its responsibilities included identifying private
companies, religious institutions, service organizations, and other
entities that have contact with Americans abroad and could thus help
publicize the census test. Although the public relations firm appeared
to go to great lengths to enlist the participation of these various
entities--soliciting the support of hundreds of organizations in the
three countries--the test revealed the difficulties of adequately
overseeing a contractor operating in multiple sites overseas.
For example, the public relations firm's tracking system indicated that
around 440 entities had agreed to perform one or more types of
promotional activities. However, our on-site inspections of several of
these organizations in Paris, France, and Guadalajara, Mexico, that had
agreed to display the census materials and/or distribute the
questionnaires, uncovered several glitches. Of the 36 organizations we
visited that were supposed to be displaying promotional literature, we
found the information was only available at 15. In those cases, as
shown in Figure 2, the materials were generally displayed in prominent
locations, typically on a table with posters on a nearby wall.
Figure 2: Census Materials Were Prominently Displayed in Various
Locations in France and Mexico:
[See PDF for image]
[End of figure]
However, at 21 sites we visited, we found various discrepancies between
what the public relations firm indicated had occurred, and what
actually took place. For example, while the firm's tracking system
indicated that questionnaires would be available at a restaurant and an
English-language bookstore in Guadalajara, none were present.
Likewise, in Paris, we went to several locations where the tracking
system indicated that census information would be available. None was.
In fact, at some of these sites, not only was there no information
about the census, but there was no indication that the organization we
were looking for resided at the address we had from the database.
Overseas Census Design Does Not Have the Capacity to Overcome
Enumeration Obstacles:
The Bureau's longstanding experience in counting the nation's stateside
population has shown that specific operations and procedures together
form the building blocks of a successful census. The design of the
overseas test--a voluntary survey that relies heavily on marketing to
secure a complete count--lacks these building blocks largely because
they are impractical to perform in other countries. Thus, the
disappointing test results are not surprising. What's more, refining
this basic design or adding more resources would probably not produce
substantially better outcomes. The building blocks include the
following:
* Mandatory participation: Under federal law, all persons residing in
the United States regardless of citizenship status are required to
respond to the stateside decennial census. By contrast, participation
in the overseas test was optional. The Bureau has found that response
rates to mandatory surveys are higher than the response rates to
voluntary surveys. This in turn yields more complete data and helps
hold down costs.
* Early agreement on design: Both Congress and the Bureau need to agree
on the fundamental design of the overseas census to help ensure
adequate planning, testing and funding levels. The design of the census
is driven in large part by the purposes for which the data will be
used. Currently, no decisions have been made on whether the overseas
data will be used for purposes of congressional apportionment,
redistricting, allocating federal funds, or other applications. Some
applications, such as apportionment, would require precise population
counts and a very rigorous design that parallels the stateside count.
Other applications, however, could get by with less precision and thus,
a less stringent approach.
* A complete and accurate address list: The cornerstone of a successful
census is a quality address list. For the stateside census, the Bureau
goes to great lengths to develop what is essentially an inventory of
all known living quarters in the United States, including sending
census workers to canvass every street in the nation to verify
addresses. The Bureau uses this information to deliver questionnaires,
follow up with nonrespondents, determine vacancies, and identify
households the Bureau may have missed or counted more than once.
Because it would be impractical to develop an accurate address list for
overseas Americans, these operations would be impossible and the
quality of the data would suffer as a result.
* Ability to detect invalid returns: Ensuring the integrity of the
census data requires the Bureau to have a mechanism to screen out
invalid responses. Stateside, the Bureau does this by associating an
identification number on the questionnaire to a specific address in the
Bureau's address list, as well as by field verification. However, the
Bureau's current approach to counting overseas Americans is unable to
determine whether or not a respondent does in fact reside abroad. So
long as a respondent provides certain pieces of information on the
census questionnaire, it will be eligible for further processing. The
Bureau is unable to confirm the point of origin for questionnaires
completed on the Internet, and postmarks on a paper questionnaire only
tell the location from which a form was mailed, not the place of
residence of the respondent. The Bureau has acknowledged that ensuring
such validity might be all but impossible for any reasonable level of
effort and funding.
* Ability to follow up with non-respondents: Because participation in
the decennial census is mandatory, the Bureau sends enumerators to
those households that do not return their questionnaires. In cases
where household members cannot be contacted or refuse to answer all or
part of a census questionnaire, enumerators are to obtain data from
neighbors, a building manager, or other nonhousehold member presumed to
know about its residents. The Bureau also employs statistical
techniques to impute data when it lacks complete information on a
household. As noted above, because the Bureau lacks an address list of
overseas Americans, it is unable to follow-up with nonrespondents or
impute information on missing households, and thus, would never be able
to obtain a complete count of overseas Americans.
* Cost model for estimating needed resources: The Bureau uses a cost
model and other baseline data to help it estimate the resources it
needs to conduct the stateside census. Key assumptions such as response
levels and workload are developed based on the Bureau's experience in
counting people decade after decade. However, the Bureau has only a
handful of data points with which to gauge the resources necessary for
an overseas census, and the tests it plans on conducting will only be
of limited value in modeling the costs of conducting a worldwide
enumeration in 2010. The lack of baseline data could cause the Bureau
to over-or underestimate the staffing, budget, and other requirements
of an overseas count.
* Targeted and aggressive marketing campaign: The key to raising public
awareness of the census is an intensive outreach and promotion
campaign. As noted previously, the Bureau's marketing efforts for the
2000 Census were far-reaching, and consisted of more than 250 ads in 17
languages that were part of an effort to reach every household,
including those in historically undercounted populations. Replicating
this level of effort on a global scale would be both difficult and
expensive, and the Bureau has no plans to do so.
* Field infrastructure to execute census and deal with problems: The
Bureau had a vast network of 12 regional offices and 511 local census
offices to implement various operations for the 2000 Census. This
decentralized structure enabled the Bureau to carry out a number of
activities to help ensure a more complete and accurate count, as well
as deal with problems when they arose. Moreover, local census offices
are an important source of intelligence on the various enumeration
obstacles the Bureau faces on the ground. The absence of a field
infrastructure for an overseas census means that the Bureau would have
to rely heavily on contractors to conduct the enumeration, and manage
the entire enterprise from its headquarters in Suitland, Maryland.
* Ability to measure coverage and accuracy: Since 1980, the Bureau has
measured the quality of the decennial census using statistical methods
to estimate the magnitude of any errors. The Bureau reports these
estimates by specific ethnic, racial, and other groups. For
methodological reasons, similar estimates cannot be generated for an
overseas census. As a result, the quality of the overseas count, and
thus whether the numbers should be used for specific purposes, could
not be accurately determined.
Policy and Conceptual Questions Need Resolution:
So far I've described the logistical hurdles to counting overseas
citizens as part of the census. However, there are a series of policy
and conceptual questions that need to be addressed as well. They
include:
* Who should be counted? U.S. citizens only? Foreign-born spouses?
Children born overseas? Dual citizens? American citizens who have no
intention of ever returning to the United States? Naturalized citizens?
* What determines residency in another country? To determine who should
be included in the stateside census, the Bureau applies its "usual
residence rule," which it defines as the place where a person lives and
sleeps most of the time. People who are temporarily absent from that
place are still counted as residing there. One's usual residence is not
necessarily the same as one's voting residence or legal residence. The
Bureau has developed guidelines, which it prints on the stateside
census form, to help people determine who should and should not be
included. The Bureau has not yet developed similar guidance for
American citizens overseas. Thus, what should determine residency in
another country? Duration of stay? Legal status? Should students
spending a semester abroad but who maintain a permanent residence
stateside be counted overseas? What about people on business or
personal trips who maintain stateside homes? Quality data will require
residence rules that are transparent, clearly defined, and consistently
applied.
* How should overseas Americans be assigned to individual states? For
certain purposes, such as apportioning Congress, the Bureau would need
to assign overseas Americans to a particular state. Should one's state
be determined by the state claimed for income tax purposes? Where one
is registered to vote? Last state of residence before going overseas?
These and other options all have limitations that would need to be
addressed.
* How should the population data be used? To apportion Congress? To
redistrict Congress? To allocate federal funds? To provide a count of
overseas Americans only for general informational purposes? The answers
to these questions have significant implications for the level of
precision needed for the data and, ultimately, the enumeration
methodology.
Alternatives to an Overseas Census:
Congress will need to decide whether or not to count overseas
Americans, and how the results should be used. These decisions, in
turn, will drive the methodology for counting this population group. As
I've already mentioned, no decisions have been made on whether the
overseas data will be used for purposes of congressional apportionment,
redistricting, allocating federal funds, or other applications. Some
uses, such as apportionment, would require precise population counts
and a very rigorous design that parallels the stateside count. Other
applications do not need as much precision, and thus a less rigorous
approach would suffice.
The basis for these determinations needs to be sound research on the
cost, quality of data, and logistical feasibility of the various
options. Possibilities include counting Americans via a separate
survey, administrative records such as passport and voter registration
forms; and/or records maintained by other countries such as published
census records and work permits.
The Bureau's initial research has shown that each of these options has
coverage, accuracy, and accessibility issues, and some might introduce
systemic biases into the data. Far more extensive research would be
needed to determine the feasibility of these or other potential
approaches.
In summary, the 2004 overseas census test was an extremely valuable
exercise in that it showed how counting Americans abroad as an integral
part of the decennial census would not be cost-effective. Indeed, the
tools and resources available to the Bureau cannot successfully
overcome the inherent barriers to counting this population group, and
produce data comparable to the stateside enumeration. Further, an
overseas census would introduce new resource demands, risks, and
uncertainties to a stateside endeavor that is already costly, complex,
and controversial. Securing a successful count of Americans in Vienna,
Virginia, is challenging enough; a complete count of Americans in
Vienna, Austria, and in scores of other countries around the globe,
would only add to the difficulties facing the Bureau as it looks toward
the next national head count. Consequently, the report we released
today suggests that Congress should continue to fund the evaluation of
the 2004 test as planned, but eliminate funding for any additional
tests related to counting Americans abroad as part of the decennial
census.
However, this is not to say that overseas citizens should not be
counted. Indeed, to the extent that Congress desires better data on the
number and characteristics of Americans abroad for various policy-
making and other nonapportionment purposes that do not need as much
precision, such information does not necessarily need to be collected
as part of the decennial census, and could, in fact, be acquired
through a separate survey or other means.
To facilitate congressional decision-making on this issue, our report
recommends that the Bureau, in consultation with Congress, research
such options as counting people via a separate survey; administrative
records such as passport data; and/or data exchanges with other
countries' statistical agencies subject to applicable confidentiality
considerations. Once Congress knows the tradeoffs of these various
alternatives, it would be better positioned to provide the Bureau with
the direction it needs so that the Bureau could then develop and test
an approach that meets congressional requirements at reasonable
resource levels. The Bureau agreed with our conclusions and
recommendations.
Successfully counting the nation's population is a near-daunting task.
As the countdown to the next census approaches the 5-year mark, the
question of enumerating Americans overseas is just one of a number of
issues the Bureau needs to resolve. On behalf of the Subcommittee, we
will continue to assess the Bureau's progress in planning and
implementing the 2010 Census and identify opportunities to increase its
cost-effectiveness.
Mr. Chairman, this concludes my prepared statement. I would be pleased
to respond to any questions that you or other Members of the
Subcommittee might have.
Contacts and Acknowledgments:
For further information regarding this testimony, please contact
Patricia A. Dalton on (202) 512-6806, or by e-mail at
[Hyperlink, daltonp@gao.gov].
Individuals making contributions to this testimony included Jennifer
Cook, Robert Goldenkoff, Ellen Grady, Andrea Levine, Lisa Pearson, and
Timothy Wexler.
(450352):
FOOTNOTES
[1] GAO, 2010 Census: Overseas Enumeration Test Raises Need for Clear
Policy Direction, GAO-04-470 (Washington, D.C.: May 21, 2004); GAO,
2010 Census: Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Decennial
Census Would Not Be Cost-Effective, GAO-04-898 (Washington, D.C.:
August 19, 2004).
[2] U.S. Const. Art I, § 2, cl. 3; 13 U.S.C. § 141(a).
[3] For more information on the Bureau's Census 2000 outreach and
promotion program, see GAO, 2000 Census: Review of Partnership Program
Highlights Best Practices for Future Operations, GAO-01-579
(Washington, D.C.: August 20, 2001).
