2010 Census
Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway, but Continued Oversight and Risk Management Are Critical Gao ID: GAO-07-1106T July 17, 2007The decennial census is a Constitutionally-mandated activity that produces critical data used to apportion congressional seats, redraw congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal assistance. The Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates the 2010 Census will cost $11.3 billion, making it the most expensive in the nation's history after adjusting for inflation. This testimony, based primarily on GAO's issued reports and preliminary observations from our ongoing work, discusses the extent to which the Bureau has (1) developed a comprehensive project plan with the most current cost data; (2) incorporated lessons learned from Dress Rehearsal activities; (3) managed automation and technology for the reengineered census; and (4) planned for an accurate census in areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
The Bureau is conducting its Dress Rehearsal of the 2010 Census, the last opportunity it will have to test its design under census-like conditions. Given the importance of a successful enumeration and the complexities of enumerating a hard-to-count population in a more technology-dependent census, our message remains that the risks associated with the decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and managed. GAO found that the Bureau is developing but has not yet completed a comprehensive project plan that includes milestones, itemized costs, and measurable goals, nor has it updated the 2010 life-cycle cost estimate to reflect current information from testing. Having a comprehensive project plan and updated cost information will allow the Bureau to manage the operations and cost of the decennial census. Moreover, GAO observed technical problems with the handheld computing devices used in the Dress Rehearsal by field staff for address canvassing (in which the Bureau verifies addresses). If the device does not function as expected or needed, little time will be left for the Bureau to take corrective action. In addition, during the LUCA Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau did not fully test software tools intended to reduce burden on participants. Also, the Bureau's level of reliance on automation and technology for the 2010 Census, at an estimated cost of $3 billion, makes effective contractor oversight (of cost, schedule, and technical performance) and risk management activities imperative. Finally, in the Gulf Coast Region, the condition of the changing housing stock is likely to present additional challenges for the address canvassing operation and subsequent operations. However, the Bureau has not finalized plans for modifying the address canvassing operation or subsequent operations in the Gulf Coast region.
GAO-07-1106T, 2010 Census: Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway, but Continued Oversight and Risk Management Are Critical
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Testimony:
Before the Subcommittee on Federal Financial Management, Government
Information, Federal Services, and International Security, Committee on
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
For Release on Delivery Expected at 2:30 p.m. EDT:
Tuesday, July 17, 2007:
2010 Census:
Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway, but Continued Oversight and
Risk Management Are Critical:
Statement of Mathew J. Scirč, Director,
Strategic Issues:
and:
David A. Powner, Director,
Information Technology:
GAO-07-1106T:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-07-1106T, testimony before the Subcommittee on
Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services,
and International Security, Committee on Homeland Security and
Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate
Why GAO Did This Study:
The decennial census is a Constitutionally-mandated activity that
produces critical data used to apportion congressional seats, redraw
congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal
assistance. The Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates the 2010 Census will
cost $11.5 billion, making it the most expensive in the nation‘s
history after adjusting for inflation. This testimony, based primarily
on GAO‘s issued reports and preliminary observations from our ongoing
work, discusses the extent to which the Bureau has (1) developed a
comprehensive project plan with the most current cost data; (2)
incorporated lessons learned from Dress Rehearsal activities; (3)
managed automation and technology for the reengineered census; and (4)
planned for an accurate census in areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina
and Rita.
What GAO Found:
The Bureau is conducting its Dress Rehearsal of the 2010 Census, the
last opportunity it will have to test its design under census-like
conditions. Given the importance of a successful enumeration and the
complexities of enumerating a hard-to-count population in a more
technology-dependent census, our message remains that the risks
associated with the decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and
managed. GAO found that the Bureau is developing but has not yet
completed a comprehensive project plan that includes milestones,
itemized costs, and measurable goals, nor has it updated the 2010 life-
cycle cost estimate to reflect current information from testing. Having
a comprehensive project plan and updated cost information will allow
the Bureau to manage the operations and cost of the decennial census.
Moreover, GAO observed technical problems with the handheld computing
devices used in the Dress Rehearsal by field staff for address
canvassing (in which the Bureau verifies addresses). If the device does
not function as expected or needed, little time will be left for the
Bureau to take corrective action. In addition, during the LUCA Dress
Rehearsal, the Bureau did not fully test software tools intended to
reduce burden on participants. Also, the Bureau‘s level of reliance on
automation and technology for the 2010 Census, at an estimated cost of
$3 billion, makes effective contractor oversight (of cost, schedule,
and technical performance) and risk management activities imperative.
Finally, in the Gulf Coast Region, the condition of the changing
housing stock is likely to present additional challenges for the
address canvassing operation and subsequent operations. However, the
Bureau has not finalized plans for modifying the address canvassing
operation or subsequent operations in the Gulf Coast region.
Table: Timeline of Selected Key Decennial Events:
Source: GAO summary of Census Bureau data.
[End of table]
What GAO Recommends:
At this time, GAO is not making new recommendations, but past reports
recommended that the Bureau take steps to develop a project plan for
the 2010 Census, further test software for the Local Update of Census
Addresses (LUCA) program, and promote an accurate census in areas
affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The Bureau generally agreed
with these recommendations and has begun to implement some of them.
[Hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1106T].
To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on
the link above. For more information, contact Mathew J. Scire at (202)
512-6806 or sciremj@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman, Mr. Coburn, Members of the Subcommittee:
Thank you for the opportunity to be here today to discuss the status of
the Census Bureau's (Bureau) preparations for the 2010 Census. Our
testimony today is based on issued and ongoing work and addresses the
Bureau's efforts to prepare for the next decennial census by (1) having
a strategic plan in place to help control costs; (2) incorporating
lessons learned from the 2008 Dress Rehearsal operation underway,
including the use of handheld computing devices; (3) managing
automation and technology that are an integral part of the reengineered
census; and (4) planning how to ensure an accurate population count in
areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
As you know, Mr. Chairman, the decennial census is a critical national
effort mandated by the Constitution. Census data are used to apportion
seats in the Congress, redraw congressional districts, allocate
billions of dollars in federal assistance to state and local
governments, and for numerous other public and private sector purposes.
In addition, the census is a complicated undertaking and a substantial
investment, requiring careful planning, risk management, and oversight
to ensure its ultimate success. The Bureau estimates the 2010 Census
will cost $11.5 billion over its life cycle, making it the most
expensive census in our country's history, even after adjusting for
inflation. For example, the average cost per housing unit for 2010 is
expected to increase by about 29 percent from 2000 levels (from $56 per
housing unit to $72 per housing unit in 2000 inflation-adjusted
dollars). Since Census 2000, we have been examining how the Bureau is
preparing for the 2010 Census, including incorporating lessons learned
from the 2000 Census into its planning for the 2010 decennial. Given
the importance of a successful enumeration and the complexities of
enumerating a hard-to-count population in a more technology-dependent
census, our message remains that the risks associated with the
decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and managed. We have
long supported an approach to oversight that is timely, rigorous,
constructive, and holds the Bureau accountable to help ensure that
accurate results are delivered within projected costs.
Today's hearing is particularly timely, as the Bureau has begun 2008
Dress Rehearsal activities in California and North Carolina. Census Day
for the Dress Rehearsal is April 1, 2008. In concept, a Dress Rehearsal
should be a dry run of the full enumeration planned for 2010, and
include the testing of operations and procedures planned for the
decennial census under as close to census-like procedures as possible.
If properly executed, the Dress Rehearsal should serve as a tool to
help the Bureau identify and mitigate risk associated with the 2010
Census.
Thus, the Bureau is at an important point in planning and conducting
the 2010 Census, as it begins the first operations for 2010 while
continuing its dry run of other operations. Sound risk management is
important to a successful census because many risks are interrelated,
and a shortcoming in one operation could cause other operations to
spiral downward. We would like to highlight several areas of risk that
the Bureau needs to manage to ensure its success. For example:
* To provide the Congress, stakeholders, and others a clear picture of
the status of the 2010 Census operations and the likely cost, the
Bureau needs to complete its 2010 Census comprehensive project plan and
update the 2010 life-cycle cost estimate to reflect current information
from testing.
* During recent Dress Rehearsal operations, we observed technical
problems with the handheld mobile computers the Bureau expects to use
for the 2010 Census. If the device does not function as expected or
needed, little time will be left for the Bureau to take corrective
action. Further, in the first operation of the Dress Rehearsal--the
Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA)--the Bureau made some
improvements over the Census 2000 program; however, it did not fully
test certain tools, such as computer-based training and other new
software, with potential users. It will be important for the Bureau to
complete such software testing.
* Greater reliance on contractor-developed automation and technology
for the 2010 Census requires the Bureau to focus on sound acquisition
and management of these key investments.
* Finally, because the changing housing stock may affect the Bureau's
ability to effectively conduct address canvassing and other operations
in the Gulf Coast region, it is important for the Bureau to complete
its planning for addressing the challenges that the Bureau's temporary
field staff would likely face in such hurricane-affected geographic
areas.
Our remarks today are based primarily on reports that GAO issued from
2002 through June 2007 on the planning and development of the 2010
Census, as well as observations from our ongoing work on the
performance of the handheld mobile computing devices and the Bureau's
acquisition of monitoring of key automation and technology investments.
(Please see Related GAO Products page for a list of relevant reports.)
In addition to the Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau conducted several field
tests for its reengineered 2010 Census--including deployment of earlier
prototypes of handheld mobile computing devices. For the 2004 field
test, we visited Queens, New York, and several counties in rural south-
central Georgia. We visited the Texas and South Dakota test sites
during the Bureau's 2006 field test. During these visits we observed
several operations including address canvassing and the nonresponse
follow-up operation. During the autumn of 2006, we observed the Local
Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal in
sites located in North Carolina and California. In January 2007, we
visited areas in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas affected by
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and in June 2007 we observed the Bureau's
address canvassing operation using the handheld devices at both of the
Dress Rehearsal sites. In regard to technology acquisition and
contracts, we analyzed current project and acquisition documents,
including earned value management data, and we interviewed Bureau
officials and contractors. To determine the status of risks and whether
the Bureau is adequately managing risks, we identified sound IT risk
management processes from those developed by the Software Engineering
Institute and compared them to the Bureau's risk management practices
for the selected projects. The areas examined included risk
preparation, risk identification and analyses, and risk mitigation. We
conducted our work in accordance with generally accepted government
auditing standards.
Background:
The decennial census is the nation's largest, most complex survey. To
conduct its decennial activities, the Bureau recruits, hires, and
trains over half a million field staff based out of local census
offices nationwide, temporarily making it one of the nation's largest
employers. The first operation for the 2010 Census has already begun.
Starting in January 2007, the Bureau notified state and local
governments that it would seek their help in developing a complete
address file through the Bureau's LUCA program. Address canvassing--a
field operation to build a complete and accurate address list in which
census field workers go door to door verifying and correcting addresses
for all households and street features contained on decennial maps--
will begin in April 2009. One year later, the Bureau will mail census
questionnaires to the majority of the population in anticipation of
Census Day, April 1, 2010. Those households that do not return their
questionnaire will be contacted by census field workers during the
nonresponse follow-up operation to determine the number of people
living in the housing unit on Census Day, among other information.
In addition to these operations, the Bureau conducts other operations,
including gathering data from residents in group quarters such as
prisons or military bases. The Bureau also employs different
enumeration methods in certain settings, such as remote Alaska
enumeration, in which people living in inaccessible communities must be
contacted in January 2010 in anticipation of the spring thaw, which
makes travel difficult, or update/enumerate, a data collection method
involving personal interviews that is used in communities where many
housing units may not have typical house number-street name mailing
addresses.
The decennial census is conducted against a backdrop of immutable
deadlines. The census's elaborate chain of interrelated pre-and post-
Census Day activities is predicated upon those dates. To meet these
mandated reporting requirements, census activities must occur at
specific times and in the proper sequence. The Secretary of Commerce is
legally required to (1) conduct the census on April 1 of the decennial
year, (2) report the state population counts to the President for
purposes of congressional apportionment by December 31 of the decennial
year, and (3) send population tabulations to the states for purposes of
redistricting no later than 1 year after the April 1 census date. (See
table 1 for dates of selected key decennial activities.)
Table 1: Timeline of Selected Key Decennial Events:
Beginning and end dates: Jan. 2007-Jan. 2010;
Decennial activity: Local Update of Census Addresses (localities assist
in updating address lists and maps).
Beginning and end dates: Feb. 2006-June 2009;
Decennial activity: 2008 Dress Rehearsal (Bureau's rehearsal of all
planned decennial operations).
Beginning and end dates: Jan. 2008;
Decennial activity: Opening of 12 Regional Census Centers.
Beginning and end dates: Oct. 2008;
Decennial activity: Opening of 455 Local Census Offices.
Beginning and end dates: Apr.-Sept. 2009;
Decennial activity: Address list activities (Bureau field staff
validate all address lists and maps).
Beginning and end dates: Apr. 1, 2010;
Decennial activity: Census Day.
Beginning and end dates: Apr.-July 2010;
Decennial activity: Nonresponse follow-up (Field staff follow-up in
person at housing units of nonresponding persons).
Beginning and end dates: Dec. 31, 2010;
Decennial activity: Delivery of apportionment counts to the President.
Beginning and end dates: Mar. 31, 2011;
Decennial activity: Complete delivery of redistricting data to states.
Source: GAO summary of Census Bureau data.
[End of table]
The Bureau estimates that it will spend about $3 billion in information
technology investments to support collections, processing and
dissemination of census data and will be undertaking four major systems
acquisitions--totaling about $2 billion. The major acquisitions include
the Decennial Response Integration System (DRIS); Field Data Collection
Automation (FDCA) program, which includes the handheld mobile computing
devices to be used by the Bureau's temporary field staff; Data Access
and Dissemination System (DADS II); and Master Address File/
Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing Accuracy
Improvement Project (MTAIP) system. The four systems were planned to be
available for the Dress Rehearsal so that their functionality could be
tested in an operational environment. (See table 2.)
Table 2: Major Information Technology Contracts:
Contract: DRIS;
Contractor: Lockheed Martin Corporation;
Contract purpose: Providing a solution for data capture and respondent
assistance;
Estimated contract cost (dollars in millions): More than $500;
Award dates: October 2005.
Contract: FDCA;
Contractor: Harris Corporation;
Contract purpose: Providing automated resources for supporting field
data collection, including the provision of mobile computing devices
used by enumerators;
Estimated contract cost (dollars in millions): $600;
Award dates: March 2006.
Contract: DADS II;
Contractor: To be determined;
Contract purpose: Develop a replacement for legacy tabulation and
dissemination system;
Estimated contract cost (dollars in millions): To be determined;
Award dates: Delayed by 1 year to September 2007.
Contract: MTAIP;
Contractor: Harris Corporation;
Contract purpose: Modernizing the system which provides the address
list, maps, and other geographic support services for the Census and
other Bureau surveys;
Estimated contract cost (dollars in millions): $209;
Award dates: June 2002.
Source: GAO analysis of Census Bureau documents.
[End of table]
In June 2005, we reported on the Bureau's progress in five information
technology (IT) areas--investment management, systems development/
management, enterprise architecture management, information security,
and human capital.[Footnote 1] These areas are important because they
have substantial influence on the effectiveness of organizational
operations and, if applied effectively, can reduce the risk of cost and
schedule overruns, and performance shortfalls. We reported that, while
the Bureau had many practices in place, much remained to be done to
fully implement effective IT management capabilities. We made several
recommendations to improve the Bureau's management.
Subsequently, in March 2006, we testified on the Bureau's acquisition
and management of two key information technology system acquisitions
for the 2010 Census--FDCA and DRIS.[Footnote 2] We reported on the
Bureau's progress in implementing acquisitions and management
capabilities for these initiatives. To effectively manage major IT
programs, organizations should use sound acquisition and management
processes, minimize risk, and thereby maximize chances for success.
Such processes include project and acquisition planning, solicitation,
requirement development and management, and risk management. We
reported that, while the project offices responsible for these two
contracts have carried out initial acquisition management activities,
neither office had the full set of capabilities they needed to
effectively manage the acquisitions, including a full risk management
process. We also made recommendations for the Bureau to implement key
activities needed to effectively manage acquisitions. The Bureau agreed
with the recommendations but is still in the process of implementing
them.
2010 Comprehensive Project Plan with Updated Cost Information Still Not
Firm:
Careful planning and monitoring are key to successfully managing a
complex undertaking such as the decennial census. In January 2004, we
recommended that the Bureau develop a comprehensive integrated project
plan. Specifically, we recommended that such a project plan be updated
as needed and include: (1) detailed milestones that identify all
significant interrelationships; (2) itemized estimated costs of each
component, including a sensitivity analysis, and an explanation of
significant changes in the assumptions on which these costs are based;
(3) key goals translated into measurable, operational terms to provide
meaningful guidance for planning and measuring progress; and (4) risk
and mitigation plans that fully address all significant potential
risks. We reported that although some of this information is available
piecemeal, to facilitate a thorough, independent review of the Bureau's
plans and hold the agency accountable for results, having a single,
comprehensive document would be important. In May 2007, we met with
Bureau officials to discuss the status of the 2010 project plan. At
that time officials indicated that they planned to finalize the project
plan over the next several months. We look forward to reviewing the
2010 Census project plan once it becomes available, and we will
continue to monitor the Bureau's planning efforts.
Among the elements of that plan, we specifically recommended that the
Bureau itemize the then-estimated $11.3 billion in costs for completing
key activities for the upcoming decennial census. However, in June 2006
before this subcommittee, we testified that the Bureau's $11.3 billion
life-cycle cost estimate for the 2010 Census lacked timely and complete
supporting data. Specifically, the supporting data of the estimate were
not timely because the data did not contain the most current
information from testing and evaluation, and were not complete because
sufficient information on how changing assumptions could affect cost
was not provided.
In its Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Estimates, the Bureau updated its
estimate to about $11.5 billion. According to Bureau documents, the
estimated life-cycle cost for the entire 2010 Census remained
relatively unchanged between 2001, when the $11.3 billion estimate
first was released, and 2006.
In our testimony last year, we noted that the September 2005 estimate
was based on assumptions made in 2001 that had not been borne out by
testing. One such assumption pertained to the testing of a new handheld
mobile computing device that is intended to automate and streamline
address canvassing, nonresponse follow-up, coverage measurement, and
payroll operations. After its 2004 Census Test the Bureau found that
local office space and staff savings of 50 percent as a result of using
the handheld computers were not realized. Nonetheless, the 2005
estimate continued to assume the 50 percent savings. In our view,
revising cost estimates with the most current information allows the
Bureau to better manage the cost of the census and make necessary
resource trade-offs. Most recently, the Bureau tested a new prototype
of the handheld mobile computing devices during the address canvassing
operation of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. This experience should provide
the Bureau additional data on productivity and space needs when using
the new devices.
Table 3 shows the Bureau's cost estimate released in June 2006. Based
on the table, most spending will occur between fiscal years 2008
through 2013.
Table 3: Bureau's Revised June 2006 Estimate of Life-cycle Costs for
the 2010 Decennial Census Program (nominal year dollars, in millions):
Program Component: American Community Survey;
FY 2001 Enacted: $23.6;
FY 2002 Enacted: $29.0;
FY 2003 Enacted: $56.8;
FY 2004 Enacted: $64.1;
FY 2005 Enacted: $144.1;
FY 2006 Enacted: $167.8;
FY 2007 Request: $179.8;
Subtotal FY01-07: $665.2;
FY 2008-FY 2013 (est.) $1,036.7;
Total (est.) $1,701.9.
Program Component: MAF/TIGER Enhancements Program;
FY 2001 Enacted: $0;
FY 2002 Enacted: $15.0;
FY 2003 Enacted: $47.0;
FY 2004 Enacted: $82.4;
FY 2005 Enacted: $81.2;
FY 2006 Enacted: $78.8;
FY 2007 Request: $73.7;
Subtotal FY01-07: $378.1;
FY 2008-FY 2013 (est.) $156.2;
Total (est.) $534.3.
Program Component: 2010 Census;
FY 2001 Enacted: $0;
FY 2002 Enacted: $21.0;
FY 2003 Enacted: $41.6;
FY 2004 Enacted: $106.0;
FY 2005 Enacted: $163.0;
FY 2006 Enacted: $201.2;
FY 2007 Request: $258.3;
Subtotal FY01-07: $791.1;
FY 2008-FY 2013 (est.) $8,227.3;
Total (est.) $9,018.4.
Program Component: Total;
FY 2001 Enacted: $23.6;
FY 2002 Enacted: $65.0;
FY 2003 Enacted: $145.4;
FY 2004 Enacted: $252.5;
FY 2005 Enacted: $388.3;
FY 2006 Enacted: $447.8;
FY 2007 Request: $511.8;
Subtotal FY01-07: $1,834.4;
FY 2008-FY 2013 (est.) $9,420.2;
Total (est.) $11,254.6.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Note: These figures have not been audited by GAO. Moreover, the
Bureau's updated $11.525 billion life-cycle cost estimate, as contained
in the agency's Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Estimates to the Congress,
assumes cost increases in the American Community Survey, Data Access
and Dissemination System, and Field Data Collection Automation.
[End of table]
Mr. Chairman, as you can see, given the projected increase in spending,
it will be imperative that the Bureau effectively manage the 2010
Census, as the risk exists that the actual, final cost of the census
could be considerably higher than anticipated. Indeed, this was the
case for the 2000 Census, when the Bureau's initial cost projections
proved to be too low because of such factors as unforeseen operational
problems or changes to the fundamental design. For example, the Bureau
estimated that the 2000 Census would cost around $4 billion if sampling
was used, and a traditional census without sampling would cost around
$5 billion. However, the final price tag for the 2000 Census (without
sampling) was over $6.5 billion, a 30 percent increase in cost. Large
federal deficits and other fiscal challenges underscore the importance
of managing the cost of the census, while promoting an accurate, timely
census.
At the request of the House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee
on Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies, we are reviewing
the life-cycle cost estimate of the 2010 Census to determine whether it
is comprehensive, credible, accurate, and adequately supported.
2008 Dress Rehearsal Experience Points to Further Testing of Software
for LUCA Operations:
During the address canvassing phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal, the
Bureau tested a prototype of the handheld computers that it intends to
use for 2010. The devices are a keystone to the reengineered census
because they allow the Bureau to automate operations, and eliminate the
need to print millions of paper questionnaires and maps used by
temporary field staff to conduct address canvassing and nonresponse
follow-up as well as to manage the payroll for field staff. Automating
operations allows the Bureau to reduce the cost of operations; thus, it
is critical that the risks surrounding the use of the handheld devices
be closely monitored and effectively managed to ensure their success.
However, during the address canvassing phase of the 2008 Dress
Rehearsal, we observed some technical difficulties with the handheld
mobile computing device. We observed that it took an inordinate amount
of time for field staff using the handheld devices to link multiple
units to one mapspot, which occurs when listing units within apartment
buildings. In North Carolina, for example, we observed a field staffer
take 2 hours to verify 16 addresses in one apartment building. The
device was also slow to process addresses that were a part of a large
assignment area. These inefficiencies affect productivity and
ultimately the cost of the census. Over the next several weeks, we will
be working with the Bureau to understand the root cause of the problems
we observed. Given the lateness in the testing cycle, the Bureau now
runs the risk that if problems do emerge, little time will be left to
develop, test, and incorporate refinements to the handheld devices
before 2010.
To date, the Bureau, in its 2008 Dress Rehearsal, has completed nearly
all LUCA activities, and while the Bureau has taken many steps to
improve LUCA since 2000, additional steps could be taken to address
possible new challenges. To reduce participant workload and burden, the
Bureau provided a longer period for reviewing and updating LUCA
materials; provided options for submitting materials for the LUCA
program; and created MAF/TIGER[Footnote 3] Partnership Software (MTPS),
which is designed to assist LUCA program participants in reviewing and
updating address and map data. This software will enable users to
import address lists and maps for comparison to the Bureau's data and
participate at the same time in both the LUCA and another geographic
program, the Boundary and Annexation Survey.[Footnote 4] However,
during the Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau tested MTPS with only one local
government. The Bureau also planned improvements to LUCA by offering
specialized workshops for informational and technical training and
supplementing the workshops with new computer-based training. However,
the Bureau did not test its computer-based training software in the
Dress Rehearsal.[Footnote 5] Properly executed user-based methods for
software testing can give the truest estimate of the extent to which
real users can employ a software application effectively, efficiently,
and satisfactorily. In June 2007, we recommended the Bureau better
assess the usability of the MTPS and test the computer-based training
software with local governments. The Bureau has agreed to do so, and in
August 2007 is expected to provide an action plan for how it will
implement this recommendation.
Additionally, not all participants will rely on the MTPS. For these
participants, the Bureau could do more to help them use their own
software. We found that participants in the LUCA Dress Rehearsal
experienced problems converting files from the Bureau's format to their
respective applications; our survey of participants in the LUCA Dress
Rehearsal showed that the majority of respondents had, to some extent,
problems with file conversions to appropriate formats. For example, one
local official noted that it took him 2 days to determine how to
convert the Bureau's files. At present, the Bureau does not know how
many localities that participate in LUCA will opt not to use MTPS, but
those localities may face the same challenges faced by participants in
the LUCA Dress Rehearsal. In response to our recommendations, the
Bureau agreed to disseminate instructions on file conversion on its Web
site and provide instructions to help-desk callers.
Bureau's Plans for Greater Use of Automation and Technology Demand
Greater Risk Management:
The Bureau's reengineered approach for the 2010 Census involves greater
use of automation, which offers the prospect of greater efficiency and
effectiveness; however, these actions also introduce new risks. The
automation of key census processes involves an extensive reliance on
contractors. Consequently, contract oversight and management become a
key challenge to a successful census. We are (1) determining the status
and plans for DRIS, FDCA, MTAIP, and DADS II (including cost, schedule,
and performance); and (2) assessing whether the bureau is adequately
managing risks associated with these key contracts including efforts to
integrate systems. We are scheduled to report the results of our work
by September 2007. Effective risk management includes identifying and
analyzing risks, assigning resources, and developing risk mitigation
plans and milestones for key mitigation deliverables, briefing senior-
level managers on high-priority risks, and tracking risks to closure.
Risk management is an important project management discipline to ensure
that among other things, key technologies are delivered on time, within
budget, and with the promised functionality.
The Bureau has awarded three of four 2010 decennial census contracts:
MTAIP (June 2002), DRIS (October 2005), and FDCA (March 2006). For DADS
II, the Bureau delayed the contract award by 1 year (the contract is
now scheduled to be awarded in September 2007). In March 2006, Bureau
officials said that this 1-year delay occurred to gain a clearer sense
of budget priorities before initiating the request for proposal
process.
Our preliminary results on the status and plans for the three awarded
2010 decennial census system contracts show that the contractors are
making mixed progress in meeting cost, schedule, and functional
performance. Specifically, the DRIS, FDCA, and MTAIP contractors are
delivering products on schedule. For example, as of March 2007, the
MTAIP contractor delivered 2,513 of the 3,232 improved county map files
to the Bureau's repository of the location of every street, boundary,
and other map features (known as the TIGER database). In addition, the
DRIS contractor has delivered certain program management documents on
schedule, including the External Interface Control document, which
documents the interfaces between DRIS and the other 2010 Census
systems, such as FDCA. Also, the FDCA contractors provided the 1,400
handheld mobile computing devices on schedule for conducting the May
2007 address canvassing for the Dress Rehearsal sites in North Carolina
and California.
Concerning costs, two projects--DRIS and MTAIP--are in line with the
projected budget. For example, as of March 2007, of the $66 million
planned for DRIS during this period, the Bureau has obligated $37
million and disbursed $19 million with the project 36 percent
completed. Further, our analyses of cost performance reports show no
projected cost overrun for DRIS by the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. However,
the FDCA project is projected to experience cost overruns by the 2008
Dress Rehearsal. Our analyses of earned value management (EVM)[Footnote
6] data show a projected FDCA cost overrun by between $17 million and
$22 million, with the most likely cost overrun being about $18 million.
According to the contractor, the overrun is occurring primarily due to
the increase in system requirements. We are concerned that this is an
indication of additional cost increases that are forthcoming, given
requirements growth associated with FDCA.
The Bureau has delayed delivering some key functionality that was
expected to be delivered for the Dress Rehearsal. For example, some key
functionality expected to be delivered with DRIS contract including the
2010 Census telephone assistance system has been delayed until fiscal
year 2009. The Bureau has stated that it will not have a robust
telephone assistance system in place for the Dress Rehearsal. The
Bureau has also delayed selecting data capture center sites for the
2010 Census, building-out data capture facilities (including physical
security, hardware, furniture, and telecommunications), and recruiting
and hiring data capture center staff. According to the Bureau, this
delay will affect areas, such as hardware installation and staffing
training. Further, the Dress Rehearsal will not include all collection
forms for the 2010 Census. According to project team officials, changes
to the DRIS original functionality were due to the Bureau's fiscal year
2006 budget constraints, and therefore changed their priorities for the
2008 Dress Rehearsal.
The importance of testing is particularly important, since systems and
functionality planned for the 2010 Census will not be available for the
2008 Dress Rehearsal. The Bureau has plans to conduct system tests,
such as the interfaces between FDCA and DRIS. The Bureau has not
finalized plans for other tests to be performed for the 2010 Census,
such as end-to-end testing. End-to-end testing is performed to verify
that a defined set of interrelated systems that collectively support an
organizational core business function interoperate as intended in an
operational environment. The failure to conduct end-to-end testing
increases the risks of systems performance failure occurring during the
2010 Census operations.
Our preliminary results also show that the Bureau's project teams have
made progress in risk management activities, but weaknesses remain.
According to the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) Capability
Maturity ModelŪ Integration (CMMISM), the purpose of risk management is
to identify potential problems before they occur so that risk-handling
activities can be executed as needed to mitigate adverse
impacts.[Footnote 7] Risk management activities can be divided into key
areas, including identifying and analyzing risks, mitigating risks, and
executive oversight. The discipline of risk management is important to
help ensure that projects are delivered on time, within budget, and
with the promised functionality. It is especially important for the
2010 Census, given the immovable deadline.
Our preliminary results on the Bureau's risk management processes show
that the project teams have performed many practices associated with
establishing sound and capable risk management processes. Specifically,
most of the projects (DRIS, FDCA, and DADS II) had developed a risk
management strategy to identify the methods or tools to be used for
risk identification, risk analysis and prioritization, and risk
mitigation. However, some projects did not fully identify risks,
establish mitigation plans that identified planned actions and
milestones, and report risk status to higher level officials.
* All four projects were identifying and analyzing risks, but one
project team was not adequately performing this activity. As of May
2007, the most significant risks for DRIS included the possibility of a
continuing budget resolution for fiscal year 2008, new system security
regulations, and disagreement between the Bureau and contractor on
functionality implementation. For FDCA, as of May 2007, the most
significant risks included insufficient funding, late development of
training materials, and untimely completion of IT Security
Certification and Accreditation. However, as part of our ongoing work,
we question the completeness of the reported risks. For example,
although the FDCA project had experienced a major increase in the
number of requirements, the project team did not identify this as a
significant risk. In addition, the project office did not identify any
risks associated with using the handheld mobile computing devices.
* All four projects are developing risk mitigation plans as a response
strategy for the handling of risks, but three project teams (DADS II,
FDCA, and MTAIP) developed mitigation plans that were often untimely or
had incomplete activities and milestones. For example, although
mitigation plans were developed for all high-level risks, they did not
always identify milestones for implementing mitigating activities. In
addition, the FDCA project has yet to provide any evidence of
mitigation plans to handle their medium-level risks as described in
their risk management strategy.
* Two projects (MTAIP and FDCA) have yet to provide evidence that risks
were reported regularly to higher-level Department of Commerce and
Bureau officials. For example, although both project teams had met with
Commerce and Bureau officials to discuss the status of the projects,
the meetings did not include discussions about the status of risks.
The failure to develop timely and complete mitigation plans increases
the project's exposure to risks and reduces the project team's ability
to effectively control and manage risks during the work effort.
Further, failure to report a project's risks to higher level officials
reduces the visibility of risks to executives that should be playing a
role in mitigating them. Until the project teams implement effective
and consistent risk management processes, the Bureau faces increased
risks that system acquisition projects will incur cost overruns,
schedule delays, and performance shortfalls.
Bureau Is Designing Decennial Activities in the Geographic Area
Affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, but Needs to Finalize Plans
and Related Milestones:
As part of our evaluation of the Bureau's LUCA Dress Rehearsal, we
visited the localities along the Gulf Coast to assess the effect that
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita might have on decennial activities in these
geographic areas, and we found that the damage and devastation of these
hurricanes will likely affect the Bureau's LUCA program and possibly
other operations. The Bureau has begun to take steps toward addressing
these issues by developing proposed actions. However, the Bureau has
not yet finalized plans and milestones related to changes in actions
for modifying address canvassing or subsequent operations in hurricane-
affected areas.
In visiting localities along the Gulf Coast earlier this year, we
observed that the effects of the hurricanes are still visible
throughout the Gulf Coast region. Hurricane Katrina alone destroyed or
made uninhabitable an estimated 300,000 homes; in New Orleans, local
officials reported that Hurricane Katrina damaged an estimated 123,000
housing units. Such changes in housing unit stock continue to present
challenges to the implementation of the 2010 LUCA Program and address
canvassing operations in the Gulf Coast region. Many officials of local
governments we visited in hurricane-affected areas said they have
identified numerous housing units that have been or will be demolished
as a result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and subsequent
deterioration. Conversely, many local governments estimate that there
is new development of housing units in their respective jurisdictions.
The localities we interviewed in the Gulf Coast region indicated that
such changes in the housing stock of their jurisdictions are unlikely
to subside before local governments begin reviewing and updating
materials for the Bureau's 2010 LUCA Program--in August 2007.[Footnote
8] As a result, local governments in hurricane-affected areas may be
unable to fully capture reliable information about their address lists
before the beginning of LUCA.
The mixed condition of the housing stock in the Gulf Coast could
decrease productivity rates during address canvassing. We observed that
hurricane-affected areas have many neighborhoods with abandoned and
vacant properties mixed in with occupied housing units. Bureau field
staff conducting address canvassing in these areas may have decreased
productivity due to the additional time necessary to distinguish
between abandoned, vacant, and occupied housing units. We also observed
many areas where lots included a permanent structure with undetermined
occupancy as well as a trailer. Bureau field staff may be presented
with the challenge of determining whether a residence or a trailer (see
fig. 1), or both, are occupied. Another potential issue is that, due to
continuing changes in the condition in the housing stock, housing units
that are deemed uninhabitable during address canvassing may be occupied
on Census Day, April 1, 2010. Bureau officials said that they recognize
there are issues with identifying uninhabitable structures in hurricane-
affected zones. Further, workforce shortages may also pose significant
problems for the Bureau's hiring efforts for address canvassing. The
effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused a major shift in
population away from the hurricane-affected areas, especially in
Louisiana. This migration displaced many low-wage workers. Should this
continue, it could affect the availability of such workers for address
canvassing and other decennial census operations.
Figure 1: Trailers in Front of Damaged Housing Units in New Orleans,
Louisiana:
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO (January 2007).
[End of figure]
In June 2006, we recommended that the Bureau develop plans (prior to
the start of the 2010 LUCA Program in August 2007) to assess whether
new procedures, additional resources, or local partnerships, may be
required to update the MAF/TIGER database along the Gulf Coast--in the
areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.[Footnote 9] The Bureau
consulted with state and regional officials from the Gulf Coast on how
to make LUCA as successful as possible, and held additional promotional
workshops for geographic areas identified by the Bureau as needing
additional assistance.
The Bureau has also considered changes to address canvassing and
subsequent operations in the Gulf Coast region. For example, Bureau
officials stated that they recognize issues with identifying
uninhabitable structures in hurricane-affected zones and, as a result,
that they may need to change procedures for address canvassing. The
Bureau is still brainstorming ideas, including the possibility of using
its "Update/Enumerate"[Footnote 10] operation in areas along the Gulf
Coast. Bureau officials also said that they may adjust training for
field staff conducting address canvassing in hurricane-affected areas
to help them distinguish between abandoned, vacant, and occupied
housing units. Without proper training, field staff can make errors and
will not operate as efficiently.[Footnote 11]
The Bureau's plans for how it may adjust address canvassing operations
in the Gulf Coast region can also have implications for subsequent
operations. For example, instructing its field staff to be as inclusive
as possible in completing address canvassing could cause increased
efforts to contact nonrespondents because the Bureau could send
questionnaires to housing units that could be vacant on Census Day. In
terms of the Bureau's workforce in the Gulf Coast region, Bureau
officials also recognize the potential difficulty of attracting field
staff, and have recommended that the Bureau be prepared to pay hourly
wage rates for future decennial field staff that are considerably
higher than usual. However, Bureau officials stated that there are "no
concrete plans" to implement changes to address canvassing or
subsequent decennial operations in the Gulf Coast region.
Mr. Chairman, the Bureau faces formidable challenges in successfully
implementing a redesigned decennial. It must also overcome significant
challenges of a demographic and socioeconomic nature due to the
nation's increasing diversity in language, ethnicity, households, and
housing type, as well a reluctance of the population to participate in
the census. The need to enumerate in the areas devastated by Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita is one more significant difficulty the Bureau faces.
We have stated in the past, and believe still, that the Bureau's
reengineering effort, if effectively implemented, can help control
costs and improve cost effectiveness and efficiency. Yet, there is more
that the Bureau can do in managing risks for the 2010 Census.
The Dress Rehearsal represents a critical stage in preparing for Census
2010--a time when the Bureau's plans will be tested as close to census-
like conditions as is possible. This is a time when the Congress, the
Department of Commerce, and others should have the information needed
to know how well the design is working. This is a time for making
transparent the risks that the Bureau must manage to ensure a
successful census. We have highlighted some of these risks today.
First, the Bureau's planning and reporting of milestones and estimated
costs could be made more useful. Second, the performance of key
contractors needs more oversight. Third, the Bureau can build on
lessons learned early in the Dress Rehearsal by further testing new
software that will help localities participating in the LUCA program.
The functionality and usability of the handheld computing device--a key
piece of hardware in the reengineered census--also bears watching. If,
after the 2008 Dress Rehearsal, the handheld computers are found to not
be reliable, the Bureau could be faced with the remote but daunting
possibility of having to revert, in whole or in part, to the costly,
paper-based census used in 2000. Finally, the Bureau must complete
plans for ensuring an accurate population count in areas affected by
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. All told, these areas continue to call for
risk mitigation plans by the Bureau and careful monitoring and
oversight by the Commerce Department, Office of Management and Budget,
the Congress, GAO, and other key stakeholders. As in the past, we look
forward to supporting this subcommittee's oversight efforts to promote
a timely, complete, accurate, and cost-effective census.
Mr. Chairman that concludes our statement. We would be glad to answer
any questions you and the committee members may have.
[End of section]
Related GAO Products:
2010 Census: Census Bureau Is Making Progress on the Local Update of
Census Addresses Program, but Improvements Are Needed. GAO-07-1063T.
Washington, D.C.: June 26, 2007.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Improved the Local Update of Census
Addresses Program, but Challenges Remain. GAO-07-736. Washington, D.C.:
June 14, 2007.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Refine Recruiting and Hiring Efforts
and Enhance Training of Temporary Field Staff. GAO-07-361. Washington,
D.C.: April 27, 2007.
2010 Census: Design Shows Progress, but Managing Technology
Acquisitions, Temporary Field Staff, and Gulf Region Enumeration
Require Attention. GAO-07-779T. Washington, D.C.: April 24, 2007.
2010 Census: Redesigned Approach Holds Promise, but Census Bureau Needs
to Annually Develop and Provide a Comprehensive Project Plan to Monitor
Costs. GAO-06-1009T. Washington, D.C.: July 27, 2006.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to Resolve Long-
standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges. GAO-06-272.
Washington, D.C.: June 15, 2006.
2010 Census: Costs and Risks Must be Closely Monitored and Evaluated
with Mitigation Plans in Place. GAO-06-822T. Washington, D.C.: June 6,
2006.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Generally Follows Selected Leading
Acquisition Planning Practices, but Continued Management Attentions Is
Needed to Help Ensure Success. GAO-06-277. Washington, D.C.: May 18,
2006.
Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management of Key
2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done. GAO-06-444T. Washington,
D.C.: March 1, 2006.
2010 Census: Planning and Testing Activities Are Making Progress. GAO-
06-465T. Washington, D.C.: March 1, 2006.
Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has Implemented Many
Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed. GAO-05-661.
Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005.
2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining Challenges Need
Prompt Resolution. GAO-05-09. Washington, D.C.: January 12, 2005.
Data Quality: Census Bureau Needs to Accelerate Efforts to Develop and
Implement Data Quality Review Standards. GAO-05-86. Washington, D.C.:
November 17, 2004.
Census 2000: Design Choices Contributed to Inaccuracies in Coverage
Evaluation Estimates. GAO-05-71. Washington, D.C.: November 12, 2004.
American Community Survey: Key Unresolved Issues. GAO-05-82.
Washington, D.C.: October 8, 2004.
2010 Census: Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Decennial
Census Would Not Be Cost-Effective. GAO-04-898. Washington, D.C.:
August 19, 2004.
2010 Census: Overseas Enumeration Test Raises Need for Clear Policy
Direction. GAO-04-470. Washington, D.C.: May 21, 2004.
2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon. GAO-04-
37. Washington, D.C.: January 15, 2004.
Decennial Census: Lessons Learned for Locating and Counting Migrant and
Seasonal Farm Workers. GAO-03-605. Washington, D.C.: July 3, 2003.
Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Hispanic
Subgroup Data Need Refinement. GAO-03-228. Washington, D.C.: January
17, 2003.
Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Data on the
Homeless and Others Without Conventional Housing Need Refinement. GAO-
03-227. Washington, D.C.: January 17, 2003.
2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective 2010
Census. GAO-03-40. Washington, D.C.: October 31, 2002.
The American Community Survey: Accuracy and Timeliness Issues. GAO-02-
956R. Washington, D.C.: September 30, 2002.
FOOTNOTES
[1] GAO, Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has
Implemented Many Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed, GAO-
05-661 (Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005).
[2] GAO, Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management
of Key 2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done, GAO-06-444T
(Washington, D.C.: Mar. 1, 2006).
[3] The Bureau's address list is known as the Master Address File
(MAF); its associated geographic information system is called the
Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing (TIGER)
database. TIGER is a registered trademark of the U.S. Census Bureau.
[4] The Bureau conducts the Boundary and Annexation Survey annually to
collect information about selected defined geographic areas. This
survey is used to update information about the legal boundaries and
names of all governmental units in the United States.
[5] Respondents to our survey ranked computer-based training higher
than classroom training, in terms of being "extremely" or "very"
useful. Additionally, local officials told us that this training was
more convenient for them because they need not leave their offices or
adjust their schedules to learn how the LUCA program works.
[6] EVM is a project management tool that integrates the investment
scope of work with schedule and cost elements for investment planning
and control. The method compares the value of work accomplished during
a given period with that of work expected in the period. Differences in
expectations are measured in both cost and schedule variances. OMB
requires agencies to use EVM as part of their performance-based
management system for any investment under development or with system
improvements under way.
[7] The CMMI is SEI's process model, which describes how to develop
processes needed for software development and specific practices that
organizations should follow.
[8] The period for local review and update of addresses and maps for
the 2010 LUCA Program is August 2007-March 2008.
[9] GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to
Resolve Long-standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges, GAO-
06-272 (Washington, D.C.: June 15, 2006), and GAO, 2010 Census: Costs
and Risks Must be Closely Monitored and Evaluated with Mitigation Plans
in Place, GAO-06-822T (Washington, D.C.: June 6, 2006).
[10] In an "Update/Enumerate" operation, interviewers enumerate a
housing unit and update address registers and census maps at the time
of their visit.
[11] GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Refine Recruiting and
Hiring Efforts and Enhance Training of Temporary Field Staff, GAO-07-
361 (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 27, 2007).
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