2010 Census
Little Time Remains to Address Operational Challenges Gao ID: GAO-09-408T March 5, 2009The decennial census is a constitutionally-mandated activity that produces data used to apportion congressional seats, redraw congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal assistance. In March 2008, GAO designated the 2010 Census a high-risk area in part because of problems with the performance of handheld computers used to collect data. The U.S. Census Bureau has since strengthened its risk management efforts and made other improvements; however, the Bureau curtailed a dress rehearsal scheduled for 2008 and was unable to test key operations under census-like conditions. This testimony discusses the Bureau's readiness for 2010 and covers: (1) the importance of reliable cost estimates; (2) building a complete and accurate address list; (3) following up on missing and conflicting responses to ensure accuracy; (4) targeting outreach to undercounted populations; and (5) designing, testing, and implementing technology for the census. The testimony is based on previously issued and ongoing GAO work.
The Bureau estimates the 2010 Census will cost more than $14 billion over its life-cycle, making it the most expensive census in the nation's history, even after adjusting for inflation. Accurate cost estimates help ensure that the Bureau has adequate funds, and that Congress, the administration, and the Bureau itself have reliable information on which to base advice and decisions. However, as GAO has reported before, the Bureau has insufficient policies and procedures and inadequately trained staff for conducting high-quality cost estimation for the decennial census. A successful census requires a complete and accurate address list. The Bureau sends thousands of census workers (listers) into the field to collect and verify address information, and this year for the first time, listers will use handheld computers to collect data. During the dress rehearsal, there were significant technical problems. A small-scale field test showed that these problems appear to have been addressed; however, the test was not carried out under full census-like conditions and did not validate all address canvassing requirements. Nonresponse follow-up, the Bureau's largest and most costly field operation, was initially planned to be conducted using the handheld computers, but was recently changed to a paper-based system due to technology issues. The Bureau has not yet developed a detailed road map for monitoring the development and implementation of nonresponse follow-up under the new design. Such a plan is essential to conducting a successful nonresponse follow-up. Furthermore, the system that manages the flow of work in field offices is not yet developed. Lacking plans for the development of both nonresponse follow-up and this management system, the Bureau faces the risk of not having them developed and fully tested in time for the 2010 Census. In an effort to reduce the undercount, the Bureau is implementing a program of paid advertising integrated with other communications strategies, such as partnerships with state, local, and tribal governments and community organizations. Moving toward 2010, the Bureau faces long-standing challenges with the nation's linguistic diversity and privacy concerns, which can contribute to the undercounting of some groups. Since 2005, we have reported concerns with the Bureau's management and testing of key IT systems. We have reviewed the status and plans for the testing of key 2010 Census systems. The Bureau has made progress in conducting systems, integration, and end-to-end testing, but critical testing still remains to be performed before systems will be ready to support the 2010 Census, and the planning for the testing needs much improvement. In short, while the Bureau has made some noteworthy progress in gearing up for the enumeration, with just over a year remaining until Census Day, uncertainties surround the Bureau's overall readiness for 2010.
GAO-09-408T, 2010 Census: Little Time Remains to Address Operational Challenges
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Testimony:
Before the Subcommittee on Information Policy, Census, and National
Archives, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, House of
Representatives:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
For Release on Delivery:
Expected at 10:00 a.m. EST:
Thursday, March 5, 2009:
2010 Census:
Little Time Remains to Address Operational Challenges:
Statement of Robert Goldenkoff:
Director, Strategic Issues:
David A. Powner:
Director, Information Technology Management Issues:
GAO-09-408T:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-09-408T, a testimony before the Subcommittee on
Information Policy, Census, and National Archives, Committee on
Oversight and Government Reform, House of Representatives.
Why GAO Did This Study:
The decennial census is a constitutionally-mandated activity that
produces data used to apportion congressional seats, redraw
congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal
assistance. In March 2008, GAO designated the 2010 Census a high-risk
area in part because of problems with the performance of handheld
computers used to collect data. The U.S. Census Bureau has since
strengthened its risk management efforts and made other improvements;
however, the Bureau curtailed a dress rehearsal scheduled for 2008 and
was unable to test key operations under census-like conditions. This
testimony discusses the Bureau‘s readiness for 2010 and covers: (1) the
importance of reliable cost estimates; (2) building a complete and
accurate address list; (3) following up on missing and conflicting
responses to ensure accuracy; (4) targeting outreach to undercounted
populations; and (5) designing, testing, and implementing technology
for the census. The testimony is based on previously issued and ongoing
GAO work.
What GAO Found:
The Bureau estimates the 2010 Census will cost more than $14 billion
over its life-cycle, making it the most expensive census in the
nation‘s history, even after adjusting for inflation. Accurate cost
estimates help ensure that the Bureau has adequate funds, and that
Congress, the administration, and the Bureau itself have reliable
information on which to base advice and decisions. However, as GAO has
reported before, the Bureau has insufficient policies and procedures
and inadequately trained staff for conducting high-quality cost
estimation for the decennial census.
A successful census requires a complete and accurate address list. The
Bureau sends thousands of census workers (listers) into the field to
collect and verify address information, and this year for the first
time, listers will use handheld computers to collect data. During the
dress rehearsal, there were significant technical problems. A small-
scale field test showed that these problems appear to have been
addressed; however, the test was not carried out under full census-like
conditions and did not validate all address canvassing requirements.
Nonresponse follow-up, the Bureau‘s largest and most costly field
operation, was initially planned to be conducted using the handheld
computers, but was recently changed to a paper-based system due to
technology issues. The Bureau has not yet developed a detailed road map
for monitoring the development and implementation of nonresponse follow-
up under the new design. Such a plan is essential to conducting a
successful nonresponse follow-up. Furthermore, the system that manages
the flow of work in field offices is not yet developed. Lacking plans
for the development of both nonresponse follow-up and this management
system, the Bureau faces the risk of not having them developed and
fully tested in time for the 2010 Census.
In an effort to reduce the undercount, the Bureau is implementing a
program of paid advertising integrated with other communications
strategies, such as partnerships with state, local, and tribal
governments and community organizations. Moving toward 2010, the Bureau
faces long-standing challenges with the nation‘s linguistic diversity
and privacy concerns, which can contribute to the undercounting of some
groups.
Since 2005, we have reported concerns with the Bureau‘s management and
testing of key IT systems. We have reviewed the status and plans for
the testing of key 2010 Census systems. The Bureau has made progress in
conducting systems, integration, and end-to-end testing, but critical
testing still remains to be performed before systems will be ready to
support the 2010 Census, and the planning for the testing needs much
improvement. In short, while the Bureau has made some noteworthy
progress in gearing up for the enumeration, with just over a year
remaining until Census Day, uncertainties surround the Bureau‘s overall
readiness for 2010.
What GAO Recommends:
GAO is not making new recommendations, but past reports recommended the
Bureau improve its cost estimation procedures and accuracy of its
address list, take steps to ensure the readiness of handheld computers,
better manage its partnership programs, and conduct end-to-end testing
of IT systems. The Bureau generally agreed with the recommendations.
View [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-408T] or key
components. For more information, contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202)
512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov or David Powner at (202) 512-9286 or
pownerd@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:
We are pleased to be here today to discuss the Census Bureau's
readiness for conducting the decennial census. Today's hearing is
particularly timely because in 2009 the Bureau transitions from
planning the 2010 Census to implementing early activities and
operations. The Bureau has already initiated large-block canvassing--an
operation where temporary field staff validate address lists and maps
for census blocks with more than 1,000 housing units in them. Next
month, the Bureau is scheduled to conduct address canvassing for
remaining census blocks when about 140,000 temporary employees will
walk every known street in the country trying to update and verify the
Bureau's address list and maps for the country. Later in the year, in a
separate effort, the Bureau is scheduled to update the locations of
approximately 200,000 "group quarters" including homeless shelters,
college residence halls, and group homes. The Bureau will also be
opening hundreds of local census offices and refining plans for later
operations.
Although the Bureau has made considerable progress in gearing up for
the 2010 Census, the path to the decennial has been a difficult one.
For example, in April 2008, technical problems with handheld computers
used to collect data led the Bureau to redesign its approach to taking
the census. While the Bureau had initially planned to use the handheld
computers for address canvassing and to collect data from the millions
of households that fail to mail back their census questionnaires (an
operation called nonresponse follow-up), the handheld computers now
will only be used for address canvassing, and the Bureau will instead
rely on paper forms to conduct nonresponse follow-up.
Today is the first anniversary of when we designated the 2010 Census to
be on our high-risk list because of (1) long-standing weaknesses in the
Bureau's information technology (IT) acquisition and contract
management function, (2) problems with the performance of handheld
computers used to collect data, and (3) uncertainty over the ultimate
cost of the census, currently estimated at more than $14 billion.
[Footnote 1] In the past year, the Bureau has strengthened its risk
management efforts and made other improvements. Still, the 2010 Census
remains high risk, in part because the poor performance of the handheld
computers drove the Bureau to curtail a critical risk management
exercise planned for 2008--a "dress rehearsal" of all census
operations.[Footnote 2] As a result, the Bureau missed its only
opportunity to demonstrate that the full complement of census-taking
activities will work in concert with one another under near-census-like
conditions.
In light of this difficult operational environment, effective
stewardship of the Bureau is essential to help ensure the census stays
on track and the agency continues to embrace a culture of performance
and accountability. Key to this will be the timely appointment of a
Census Director who is an efficient administrator, a respected
technical professional, a strategic leader, and capable of working
constructively with Congress, officials at all levels of government, as
well as nongovernmental organizations and the statistical community.
At your request, we will discuss the state of the census, paying
particular attention to the following:
* the importance of using reliable cost estimates and justifications
for spending on census activities;
* building a complete and accurate address list to know where to count
people;
* following up on missing and conflicting responses to ensure
completeness and accuracy;
* targeting communications and outreach efforts to reduce the
differential undercount; and:
* designing, testing, and implementing technology to support the
census.
Our testimony today is based on our ongoing and recently completed
work. See the last page of this statement for a list of our recently
issued census reports. To determine the readiness of the Bureau to
conduct the 2010 Census, we reviewed and analyzed scheduling, design,
operational and testing plans for the various census operations, data
from the dress rehearsal sites, and documents related to the December
2008 field test of the handheld computers in Fayetteville, North
Carolina, and we interviewed Bureau staff. At the field test, we
observed the handheld computers' ability to collect and transmit
address data by accompanying census workers as they went door-to-door.
In February 2009, we also observed census workers conduct large-block
canvassing using laptop computers. This work was conducted in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Those
standards require that we plan and perform the audits to obtain
sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our
findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that
the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and
conclusions.
In summary, the Bureau has made commendable progress in rolling out key
components of the census, making improvements to the handheld
computers, certain risk management efforts, and how it will print the
80 million maps needed by temporary field staff to carry out the
enumeration. Nevertheless, at a time when planning activities should be
reaching completion, major testing should be winding down, and there
should be confidence in the functionality of census-taking activities,
the Bureau instead finds itself lacking sufficient policies,
procedures, and trained staff to develop high-quality cost estimates,
and a number of operations and support systems still need to be
designed, planned, or tested. In the 13 months leading up to Census
Day, the Bureau will be challenged to implement early operations,
complete the final preparations for various activities, make
refinements, and address any glitches that arise. With little time
remaining, uncertainties surround the Bureau's readiness for 2010.
Background:
As you know, Mr. Chairman, the decennial census is a critical national
effort mandated by the Constitution. Census data are used to apportion
seats in Congress, redraw congressional districts, allocate billions of
dollars in federal assistance to state and local governments, and for
numerous other public and private sector purposes.
Importantly, the census is conducted against a backdrop of immutable
deadlines. In order to meet legally mandated reporting requirements,
census activities need to take place at specific times and in the
proper sequence. For example, the group quarters validation operation,
where census workers verify the location of group quarters, such as
nursing homes and college dormitories, needs to be completed after the
address canvassing operation. As a result, it is absolutely critical
for the Bureau to stay on schedule. Figure 1 shows some dates for
selected decennial events.
Figure 1: Timeline of Selected Decennial Events:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
Operation or activity: Local update of census addresses (LUCA):
Localities assist in updating address lists and maps;
Date: starting January 2007 through February 2010.
Operation or activity: Opening of 494 local census offices;
Date: October 2008 through December 2009.
Operation or activity: Large block canvassing: Field staff validate
addresses for blocks containing over 1,000 housing units;
Date: January 2009 through June 2009.
Operation or activity: Address canvassing: Field staff validate address
lists and maps;
Date: April 2009 through July 2009.
Operation or activity: Group quarters validation: Field staff validate
addresses for group housing such as prisons and nursing facilities;
Date: September 2009 through October 2009.
Operation or activity: Mailout/mailback: Most households are mailed
census questionnaires;
Date: March 2009 through October 2010.
April 1, 2010: Census Day.
Operation or activity: Update/enumerate: Field staff visit housing
units that do not have house numbers and/or street names;
Date: March 2010 through May 2010.
Operation or activity: Group quarters enumeration: Field staff visit
group housing such as prisons and nursing facilities;
Date: March 2010 through May 2010.
Operation or activity: Nonresponse follow-up: Field staff follow-up in
person with nonresponding households;
Date: May 2010 through July 2010.
Operation or activity: Coverage follow-up: Staff follow-up by telephone
to resolve conflicting information provided on census forms;
Date: April 2010 through August 2010.
December 31, 2010: Delivery of apportionment counts to the President.
April 1, 2011: Complete delivery of redistricting data to states.
Source: GAO summary of U.S. Census Bureau information.
[End of figure]
The Bureau estimates that the 2010 Census will cost more than $14
billion over its life-cycle, making it the most expensive census in our
nation's history. According to the Bureau, the increasing cost of the
census is caused in part by various societal trends--such as increasing
privacy concerns, more non-English speakers, and people residing in
makeshift and other nontraditional living arrangements--making it
harder to find people and get them to participate in the census.
Automation and IT will play a critical role in the success of the 2010
Census by supporting data collection, analysis, and dissemination.
According to the Bureau's estimates, it is spending more than $3
billion on IT acquisitions for the census. The Bureau is relying on
both the acquisition of new systems and the enhancement of existing
legacy systems for conducting operations for the 2010 Census. These
systems are to play important roles with regard to different aspects of
the process, such as providing geographic information to establish
where to count, capturing and integrating census responses, supporting
field operations such as address canvassing, and tabulating and
publicly disseminating census data.
Providing Reliable Cost Estimates and Justifications for Spending as
2010 Approaches Presents a Major Challenge for the Bureau:
Accurate cost estimates are essential to a successful census because
they help ensure that the Bureau has adequate funds, and so that
Congress, the administration, and the Bureau itself can have reliable
information on which to base or advise decisions. However, as we have
reported before, the Bureau has insufficient policies and procedures
and inadequately trained staff for conducting high-quality cost
estimation for the decennial census.[Footnote 3] The Bureau does not
have cost estimation guidance and procedures in place or staff that is
certified in cost estimation techniques. The Bureau is developing a new
budget management tool that will support the cost estimation process
beyond 2010. As part of that, the Bureau will need to establish
rigorous cost estimation policies and procedures and use skilled
estimators to ensure that future cost estimates are reliable and of
high quality.
For example, to help manage the 2010 census and contain costs, over 5
years ago we recommended that the Bureau develop a comprehensive,
integrated project plan for the 2010 Census that should include the
itemized, estimated costs of each component and a sensitivity analysis
[Footnote 4] and an explanation of significant changes in the
assumptions on which these costs were based.[Footnote 5] In response,
the Bureau provided us with the 2010 Census Operations and Systems
Plan, dated August 2007. This plan represented an important step
forward by including operational inputs and outputs and describing
linkages among operations and systems. However, that document did not
include itemized cost estimates of each component or sensitivity
analysis, and thus did not provide a valid baseline or range of
estimates for the Bureau and Congress. The Bureau has provided annual
cost updates as part of its budget submission process, but these too
have lacked cost analyses to support them. As the Bureau approaches the
final surge in the current decade-long decennial spending cycle,
providing reliable cost estimates accompanied by sound justification,
as we have recommended, will be important if Congress is to make
informed decisions about the levels at which to fund the remainder of
the 2010 Census.
Effective Address Canvassing Is Essential for a Complete and Accurate
Count:
A complete and accurate list of all addresses where people live in the
country is the cornerstone of a successful census because it identifies
all households that are to receive a census questionnaire and serves as
the control mechanism for following up with households that fail to
respond. The Bureau goes to great lengths to develop a quality address
list and maps, working with the U.S. Postal Service; federal agencies;
state, local, and tribal governments; local planning organizations; the
private sector; and nongovernmental entities. For example, under the
Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program, the Bureau is
authorized to partner with state, local, and tribal governments,
tapping into their knowledge of local populations and housing
conditions in order to secure a more complete count.[Footnote 6]
Between November 2007 and March 2008, over 8,000 state, local, and
tribal governments provided approximately 8 million address updates
through the LUCA program. The Bureau will send thousands of temporary
census workers, known as listers, into the field to collect and verify
address information and update maps on-site, including verifying
address updates provided through the LUCA program.
Despite the Bureau's efforts, an inherent challenge is locating
unconventional and hidden housing units, such as converted basements
and attics. For example, as shown in figure 2, what appears to be a
small, single-family house could contain an apartment, as suggested by
its two doorbells. The Bureau has trained listers to look for extra
mailboxes, utility meters, and other signs of hidden housing units and
is developing training guides for 2010 to help listers locate hidden
housing. Nonetheless, decisions on what is a habitable dwelling are
often difficult to make--what is habitable to one worker may seem
uninhabitable to another. According to Bureau estimates, approximately
1.4 million housing units were missed in the 2000 Census. If an address
is not in the Bureau's address file, its residents are less likely to
be included in the census.
Figure 2: Single or Multi-unit Housing?
[Refer to PDF for image: photograph]
Photograph of single family home. Two doorbells could indicate two
housing units.
Source: GAO.
[End of figure]
Performance of Handheld Computers Has Improved in Field Testing, but
More Information Is Needed to Evaluate Readiness for Address
Canvassing:
A nationwide address canvassing operation for the 2010 Census is
scheduled to begin this spring, when listers will use handheld
computers for the first time to collect address data. Listers will add
addresses that do not already appear on the Bureau's list and mark for
deletion any that they cannot verify according to the rules and
guidance developed by the Bureau.
When the handheld computers were tested during the dress rehearsal of
the address canvassing operation, the devices experienced such problems
as slow or inconsistent data transmission, freeze-ups, and difficulties
collecting mapping coordinates.[Footnote 7] The software that managers
used to review worker productivity and assign work was also
troublesome.[Footnote 8] For example, management reports were
unreliable because they pulled data from incorrect sources, and Bureau
staff had difficulty using the work management software to reassign
work.
The Bureau took steps to fix these issues and, in December 2008,
conducted a limited field test in Fayetteville, North Carolina, to test
the functionality and usability of the handheld computer, including
whether the handheld computer problems encountered earlier had been
resolved. Although the Bureau's final evaluation of the field test was
due by the end of February 2009, we were not able to review it for this
testimony. From our observations of the December 2008 field test and
interviews with Bureau officials, the Bureau appears to have addressed
many of the handheld computer performance issues, as well as the
problems with the work management software, observed during the dress
rehearsal. This is an important and noteworthy development.
Nonetheless, more information is needed to determine the Bureau's
overall readiness for address canvassing as the field test was not an
end-to-end systems evaluation, did not validate all address canvassing
requirements, such as training and help desk support, and did not
include urban areas. Additionally, the scale of the field test was a
fraction of that of the address canvassing operation. The Bureau was to
conduct a review of the readiness of the handheld computers in January
2009 but has not yet reported the results of that review. Finally, the
Bureau's actual workload for address canvassing--about 144.7 million
addresses--is 11 million addresses more than the Bureau had planned
for, leaving the Bureau with too few handheld computers to complete the
workload in the time originally scheduled. In response, the Bureau will
be extending the amount of time listers will be working in the field in
affected areas, although not extending the end date of the operation,
to compensate for the larger workload.
During the dress rehearsal, listers also experienced problems when
collecting address data for large blocks having more than 1,000 housing
units. According to the Bureau, the handheld computer did not have the
capacity to efficiently collect data for large blocks. The Bureau has
taken steps to mitigate this problem. Specifically, in January 2009,
the Bureau began using laptop computers and software already used in
other operations to canvass the 2,086 blocks it identified as large
blocks, and by the end of February 2009, the Bureau had completed
approximately 80 percent of large-block canvassing.[Footnote 9] In
February 2009 we observed large-block canvassing in Atlanta, Georgia;
Boston, Massachusetts; New York, New York; San Francisco, California;
and Washington, D.C. From our preliminary observations, the laptops
appear to work well, and listers reported their training was
satisfactory. We are in the process of discussing these and other
observations with the Bureau.
Bureau Needs to Finalize Field Data Collection Plans:
The Bureau's largest and most costly field operation is nonresponse
follow-up. The Bureau estimates that it will employ over 600,000
temporary workers to collect data from about 47 million nonresponding
households over the course of 10 weeks in 2010. On April 3, 2008, the
Bureau announced that it would no longer use handheld computers for
nonresponse follow-up and would instead change to a paper-based
nonresponse follow-up operation. According to the Bureau, this change
added between $2.2 billion to $3 billion to the total cost of the
census.
In May 2008, the Bureau issued a plan that covered major components of
the paper-based nonresponse follow-up. Bureau officials said that they
are developing a more detailed plan that would describe 2010
nonresponse follow-up operations and systems, workflow, major
milestones, and roles and responsibilities of different census
divisions. Although the plan was due in January 2009, it has yet to be
completed. Because this plan serves as a road map for monitoring the
development and implementation of nonresponse follow-up, it will be
important for the Bureau to complete this plan.
The Bureau has changed plans for many aspects of nonresponse follow-up,
and officials are determining which activities and interfaces will be
tested and when that testing will occur. Although the Bureau has
carried out a paper-based follow-up operation in past decennials, the
2010 Census includes new procedures and system interfaces that have not
been tested under census-like conditions because they were dropped from
the dress rehearsal. Bureau officials acknowledged the importance of
testing new and modified nonresponse follow-up activities and system
interfaces in order to reduce risk but have not yet developed detailed
testing plans. Given the number of tasks at hand and the increasingly
shorter time frame in which to accomplish them, it will be important
for the Bureau to monitor the development of these testing plans,
coordinate this testing with other activities, and ensure that testing
occurs in time to take corrective actions, if needed.
In our previous work, we have highlighted the importance of sound risk
management in planning for the decennial census.[Footnote 10] The
Bureau has strengthened aspects of its risk management process. For
example, in July 2008, the Bureau identified 31 nonresponse follow-up
risks, such as lower than expected enumerator productivity. However, it
has not developed mitigation plans for these risks. Officials said that
they are reevaluating these risks and plan to develop mitigation plans
for high-and medium-priority nonresponse follow-up risks starting in
spring 2009. However, the Bureau has not yet determined when these
plans will be completed.
Coverage Follow-up Operation Needs to Be Finalized:
One of the Bureau's long-standing challenges is resolving conflicting
information respondents provide on census forms. This problem can
occur, for example, when the number of household members reported on a
completed form differs from the number of persons for whom information
is provided. In such instances, the Bureau attempts to reconcile the
data during the coverage follow-up operation. For 2010, the Bureau
plans to expand the scope of this operation and include two questions-
-known as coverage probes--on the census form to help identify
households where someone may have been missed or counted incorrectly
(see figure 3).
Figure 3: Example of Coverage Probes from Draft 2010 Census Form:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
Undercount probe:
2. Were there any additional people staying here April 1, 2010 that you
did not include in Question 1? Mark all that apply:
Children, such as new born babies or foster children;
Relatives, such as adult children, cousins, or in-laws;
People staying here temporarily;
No additional people.
Overcount probe:
10. Does person 1 sometimes live or stay somewhere else?
No:
Yes: Mark all that apply:
In college housing;
In the military;
At a seasonal or second residence;
For child custody;
In jail or prison;
In a nursing home;
For another reason.
Source: GAO presentation of U.S. Census Bureau information.
[End of figure]
However, after testing the probes earlier in the decade, the Bureau
found one of the probes was problematic in identifying persons
potentially missing from the count. Although these probes were included
on the forms mailed out during the dress rehearsal, the coverage follow-
up operation did not include cases from nonresponse follow-up, which
was canceled from the dress rehearsal. In the absence of a final test
of the coverage probes in nonresponse follow-up, the effectiveness of
the information generated by the probes is uncertain.
Fieldwork Management System for Most Operations Still Needs to Be
Specified and Programmed:
A successful census depends, in large part, on the work carried out in
the local census offices.[Footnote 11] For the 2010 Census, this field
work cannot be accomplished without a properly functioning OCS. This
system is intended to provide managers with essential, real-time
information, such as worker productivity and completion rates for field
operations. It also allows managers to assign and reassign cases among
workers. If the system does not work as intended, it could bog down or
delay field operations and introduce errors into data collected.
Initially, the Bureau had planned to use a contractor to develop OCS to
manage the workflow for those operations relying on paper-based
processes, such as group quarters enumeration and nonresponse follow-
up. However, in August 2008, the Bureau created an internal program to
develop OCS and other related infrastructure that are needed to support
these operations. The Bureau is still in the process of developing OCS
for paper-based operations.
Although the Bureau has established a high-level schedule for testing
OCS, it has not yet finalized the requirements needed to begin its
programming or developed a detailed schedule for conducting additional
tests. Further, the Bureau has not yet fully defined how OCS will work
together with other systems. According to Bureau officials, the lack of
detailed plans for operations, such as nonresponse follow-up, makes it
difficult to finalize requirements for OCS or its testing plans. Our
work on IT systems testing has shown that without adequate oversight
and more comprehensive guidance, the Bureau cannot ensure that it is
thoroughly testing its systems and properly prioritizing testing
activities before the 2010 Census.
The Bureau Has Taken Steps to Improve Map Production but Faces a Tight
Schedule:
The Bureau estimates that it will need to produce approximately 30
million different map files from which 80 million paper maps will be
printed to assist census workers in locating addresses in major census
operations. The quality of maps and the timing of map printing are
critical to the success of the census. In addition, many map production
and printing activities must be conducted in sequence with no time to
spare, putting at risk the Bureau's ability to print its maps on time.
The Bureau has taken positive steps to meet its requirements for map
production and printing for 2010. For example, in June 2008, the Bureau
decided to produce a generic map type in lieu of several operation-
specific versions to reduce the number of map files to be produced.
Furthermore, the Bureau is preparing to print most of its maps at the
local census offices rather than at the regional offices, reducing the
need to coordinate map delivery to the local census offices. In
addition, the Bureau has replaced its labor-intensive quality assurance
process with integrated, automated processes. These steps taken to
improve workflow will become particularly important as the Bureau works
to produce and print maps on an already compressed schedule.
The Bureau's schedule for producing and printing maps does not allow
for any delays in receiving data from other operations or from the
contractor delivering map files. For example, the Bureau intends to
include map information from address canvassing, which ends in July
2009, in maps that will be used to validate locations of group
quarters, which begins in September 2009. Bureau officials have stated
that the turnaround time between these operations allows no slippage,
and if these data are received late, an entire chain of subsequent map
production steps would be thrown off schedule. Furthermore, according
to the Bureau, local census offices need to receive map files from the
contractor in time to print maps for certain field operations by
January 8, 2010. However, the contractor is not scheduled to finish
delivering the map files until January 19, 2010. Bureau officials said
that they have taken steps to ensure that the necessary map files are
delivered in time for printing but are still working to resolve the
discrepancy.
Census Marketing Programs Will Need to Improve Response Rates of
Historically Undercounted Groups:
The Bureau goes to great lengths to reduce the undercount, especially
for those groups likely to be undercounted at a higher rate than
others, such as minorities and renters. For example, the Bureau plans
to provide language assistance guides in 59 languages for completing
the census, an increase from 49 languages in 2000. For the first time
in 2010, the Bureau plans to send bilingual questionnaires to
approximately 13 million households that are currently likely to need
Spanish language assistance, as determined by analyzing recent data
from a related Bureau survey program.
The Bureau also plans to deploy a multifaceted communications campaign
consisting of, among other efforts, paid advertising and the hiring of
as many as 680 partnership staff who will be tasked with reaching out
to local governments, community groups, and other organizations in an
effort to secure a more complete count. Overall, the Bureau estimates
it will spend around $410 million on its communication efforts for the
2010 Census. However, in constant 2010 dollars, this amount is somewhat
less than the approximately $480 million that the Bureau spent
marketing the 2000 Census.
Although the effects of the Bureau's communication efforts are
difficult to measure, the Bureau reported some positive results from
its 2000 Census marketing efforts with respect to raising awareness of
the census. For example, four population groups--non-Hispanic Blacks,
non-Hispanic Whites, Asians, and Native Hawaiians--indicated they were
more likely to return the census form after the 2000 Census partnership
and marketing program than before its onset. However, a Bureau
evaluation demonstrated only a limited linkage between the partnership
and marketing effort and improvements in actual census mail return
behavior for these or other groups. Put another way, while the Bureau's
marketing activities might raise awareness of the census, a remaining
challenge is converting that awareness into an actual response. Other
marketing challenges include long-standing issues such as the nation's
linguistic diversity and privacy concerns, as well as a number of newly
emerging concerns, such as local campaigns against illegal immigration
and a post-September 11 environment that could heighten some groups'
fear of government agencies.
Managing and Testing Information Technology Systems Remain a Concern:
Since 2005, we have reported on weaknesses in the Bureau's management
of its IT acquisitions, and we remain concerned about the Bureau's IT
management and testing of key 2010 Census systems. For example, in
October 2007, we reported on the status of and plans for key 2010
Census IT acquisitions and whether the Bureau was adequately managing
associated risks.[Footnote 12] We found critical weaknesses in the
Bureau's risk management practices, including those associated with
risk identification, mitigation, and oversight. We later presented
multiple testimonies on the Bureau's progress in addressing significant
risks facing the 2010 Census. In particular, the Field Data Collection
Automation (FDCA) program, which includes the development of handheld
computers for the address canvassing operation and the systems,
equipment, and infrastructure that field staff will use to collect
data, has experienced significant problems. For example, in March 2008,
we testified that the FDCA program was experiencing schedule delays and
cost increases, and was contributing significant risk to the 2010
Census. At that time, we highlighted our previous recommendations to
better manage FDCA and the other IT acquisitions.[Footnote 13]
In response to our findings and recommendations, the Bureau has taken
several steps to improve its management of IT for the 2010 Census. For
example, the Bureau has sought external assessments of its activities
from independent research organizations, implemented a new management
structure and management processes and brought in experienced personnel
to key positions, and improved several reporting processes and metrics.
In part due to our review of the FDCA program, the Bureau requested a
revised cost proposal for the FDCA program, which resulted in a cost
reduction of about $318 million for the remaining 5-year life-cycle of
the program.
As we have previously reported, operational testing planned during the
census dress rehearsal would take place without the full complement of
systems and functionality that was originally planned, and it was
unclear whether the Bureau was developing plans to test all
interrelated systems and functionality. At your request, we reviewed
the status and plans of testing of key 2010 Census systems. As stated
in our report, which we are releasing today, we found that the Bureau
has made progress in conducting systems, integration, and end-to-end
testing, but critical testing still remains to be performed before
systems will be ready to support the 2010 Census, and the planning,
execution, and monitoring of its testing needs much improvement.
[Footnote 14] We are making 10 recommendations for strengthening the
Bureau's testing of 2010 Census systems. Those recommendations address
improvements needed in test planning, management, and monitoring. In
response to our report, the Department of Commerce and the Bureau
stated they had no significant disagreements with our recommendations.
In summary, little more than a year remains until Census Day. At a time
when major testing should be completed and there should be confidence
in the functionality of key operations, the Bureau instead finds itself
managing late design changes and developing testing plans. The Bureau
has taken some important steps toward mitigating some of the challenges
that it has faced to date, yet much remains uncertain, and the risks to
a successful decennial census remain. Addressing these risks and
challenges will be critical to the timely completion of a cost-
effective census, and it will be essential for the Bureau to develop
plans for testing systems and procedures not included in the dress
rehearsal, and for Congress to monitor the Bureau's progress.
As always, we look forward to working with Congress in assessing the
Bureau's efforts to overcome these hurdles to a successful census and
providing regular updates on the rollout of the decennial in the
critical months that lie ahead.
Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee, this concludes our
statement. We would be happy to respond to any questions that you or
members of the Subcommittee may have at this time.
If you have any questions on matters discussed in this testimony,
please contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 or David A. Powner
at (202) 512-9286 or by e-mail at goldenkoffr@gao.gov or
pownerd@gao.gov. Other key contributors to this testimony include
Sher'rie Bacon, Thomas Beall, Steven Berke, Vijay D'Souza, Elizabeth
Fan, Richard Hung, Andrea Levine, Signora May, Ty Mitchell, Catherine
Myrick, Lisa Pearson, Kathleen Padulchick, Crystal Robinson, Melissa
Schermerhorn, Cynthia Scott, Karl Seifert, Jonathan Ticehurst, Timothy
Wexler, and Katherine Wulff.
[End of section]
Related GAO Products:
High Risk: An Update. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-271]. Washington, D.C.: January
2009.
2010 Census: The Bureau's Plans for Reducing the Undercount Show
Promise, but Key Uncertainties Remain. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-1167T]. Washington, D.C.: September
23, 2008.
2010 Census: Census Bureau's Decision to Continue with Handheld
Computers for Address Canvassing Makes Planning and Testing Critical.
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-936]. Washington, D.C.:
July 31, 2008.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Take Action to Improve the
Credibility and Accuracy of Its Cost Estimate for the Decennial Census.
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-554]. Washington, D.C.:
June 16, 2008.
2010 Census: Plans for Decennial Census Operations and Technology Have
Progressed, But Much Uncertainty Remains. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-886T]. Washington, D.C.: June 11,
2008.
2010 Census: Bureau Needs to Specify How It Will Assess Coverage Follow-
up Techniques and When It Will Produce Coverage Measurement Results.
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-414]. Washington, D.C.:
April 15, 2008.
2010 Census: Census at Critical Juncture for Implementing Risk
Reduction Strategies. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-659T]. Washington, D.C.: April 9,
2008.
Information Technology: Significant Problems of Critical Automation
Program Contribute to Risks Facing 2010 Census. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-550T]. Washington, D.C.: March 5,
2008.
Information Technology: Census Bureau Needs to Improve Its Risk
Management of Decennial Systems. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-259T]. Washington, D.C.: December
11, 2007.
2010 Census: Planning and Testing Activities Are Making Progress.
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-465T]. Washington, D.C.:
March 1, 2006.
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] GAO, Information Technology: Significant Problems of Critical
Automation Program Contribute to Risks Facing 2010 Census, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-550T] (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 5,
2008).
[2] GAO, High-Risk Series: An Update, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-271] (Washington, D.C.: January
2009).
[3] GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Take Action to Improve the
Credibility and Accuracy of Its Cost Estimate for the Decennial Census,
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-554] (Washington, D.C.:
June 16, 2008).
[4] Sensitivity analysis examines the effect of changing one assumption
or cost driver at a time while holding all other variables constant.
[5] GAO, 2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon,
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-04-37] (Washington, D.C.:
Jan. 15, 2004).
[6] Census Address List Improvement Act of 1994, Pub. L. No. 103-430.
[7] GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau's Decision to Continue with
Handheld Computers for Address Canvassing Makes Planning and Testing
Critical, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-936]
(Washington, D.C.: July 31, 2008).
[8] GAO, 2010 Census: Plans for Decennial Census Operations and
Technology Have Progressed, But Much Uncertainty Remains, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-886T] (Washington, D.C.: June 11,
2008).
[9] These 2,086 large blocks are located in 332 counties and are
concentrated in the following regions: Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas,
Denver, Los Angeles, and New York.
[10] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-886T].
[11] For all decennial census operations, the Bureau plans to hire 1.4
million temporary employees who will receive their training and work
assignments through 494 local census offices, as well as the 12
regional census centers throughout the country.
[12] GAO, Information Technology: Census Bureau Needs to Improve Its
Risk Management of Decennial Systems, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-79] (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 5,
2007).
[13] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-550T].
[14] GAO, Information Technology: Census Bureau Testing of 2010
Decennial Systems Can Be Strengthened, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-262] (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 5,
2009).
[End of section]
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