2010 Census
Cooperation with Enumerators Is Critical to a Successful Headcount Gao ID: GAO-10-665T April 30, 2010On May 1, 2010, the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) will launch its massive follow-up effort with the roughly 48 million households that did not mail back their census forms (130 million forms were delivered). As part of this nonresponse follow-up effort, over 600,000 enumerators will fan out across the country, personally contacting nonresponding housing units as many as six times in an effort to ensure everyone is counted. As requested, GAO's testimony in Los Angeles (L.A.) focuses on the importance of census participation, paying particular attention to (1) the Bureau's preparedness for nonresponse follow-up in terms of workload and staffing levels, (2) why it will be critical for Angelenos and others across the country to cooperate with enumerators during nonresponse follow-up, and (3) key steps the Bureau needs to take moving forward to ensure nonresponse follow-up is timely and accurate. The testimony is based on previously issued and ongoing GAO work.
Nationally, based on workload and staffing levels, the Bureau appears to be well positioned to implement nonresponse follow-up. On both counts, the Bureau's performance is meeting its expected goals. With respect to the mail-back response rate, the Bureau expected a level of between 59 percent and 65 percent. The actual mail-back response rate when the Bureau determined the universe of houses to visit for nonresponse follow-up on April 19, was 63.2 percent, well within its estimates. The mail-back response rate for L.A. City was 61.4 percent, and L.A. County was 64.7 percent. In terms of staffing, the Bureau met its goals both nationally as well as for L.A. Still, the Bureau could encounter pockets of challenges at the local level where mail-back response rates are less than expected. Further, the reliability of a computer system needed to administer nonresponse follow-up is an open question. Participation in the census has decade-long implications for individuals, communities, and states. For example, census data are used to apportion House seats, redraw the boundaries of congressional and local election districts, and help ensure compliance with civil rights and other laws protecting our citizens. A complete count also helps ensure that L.A. and other areas obtain their fair share of federal assistance. Indeed, a number of formula grants allocate money based at least in part on census and related population data. GAO's recent analysis found that the 10 largest federal assistance programs obligated an estimated $478 billion in fiscal year 2009 based, to some extent, on census and related population data. The grants included Medicaid, Highway Planning and Construction, Head Start, and the Children's Health Insurance Program. Local governments as well as businesses use census data for planning and investment decisions, and to better tailor the services they provide. Nationally, following up on nonresponding households is a daunting task, and L.A. presents its own challenges and opportunities. For example, data from a planning database the Bureau developed placed L.A. County first on a list of the top 50 U.S. counties with the highest number of people living in hard-to-count areas, based on data from the 2000 Census. Factors contributing to the area's hard-to-count challenges include poverty, unemployment, and language barriers. Moving forward, among other activities, it will be important for the Bureau to track various production, quality, and other indicators as planned to help ensure nonresponse follow-up stays on track. In summary, participation in the census is a quick, easy, and confidential civic act that has a lasting impact on states, cities, neighborhoods, and even individuals. But the benefits that can accrue from a complete and accurate population tally can only occur if Angelenos cooperate with enumerators when they knock on nonrespondents' doors in the weeks ahead.
GAO-10-665T, 2010 Census: Cooperation with Enumerators Is Critical to a Successful Headcount
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Testimony:
Before the Subcommittee on Information Policy, Census, and National
Archives, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, House of
Representatives:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
For Release on Delivery:
Expected at 1:00 p.m. PDT:
Friday, April 30, 2010:
2010 Census:
Cooperation with Enumerators Is Critical to a Successful Headcount:
Statement of Robert Goldenkoff:
Director:
Strategic Issues:
GAO-10-665T:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-10-665T, a testimony before the Subcommittee on
Information Policy, Census, and National Archives, Committee on
Oversight and Government Reform, House of Representatives.
Why GAO Did This Study:
On May 1, 2010, the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) will launch its
massive follow-up effort with the roughly 48 million households that
did not mail back their census forms (130 million forms were
delivered). As part of this nonresponse follow-up effort, over 600,000
enumerators will fan out across the country, personally contacting
nonresponding housing units as many as six times in an effort to
ensure everyone is counted.
As requested, GAO‘s testimony in Los Angeles (L.A.) focuses on the
importance of census participation, paying particular attention to (1)
the Bureau‘s preparedness for nonresponse follow-up in terms of
workload and staffing levels, (2) why it will be critical for
Angelenos and others across the country to cooperate with enumerators
during nonresponse follow-up, and (3) key steps the Bureau needs to
take moving forward to ensure nonresponse follow-up is timely and
accurate. The testimony is based on previously issued and ongoing GAO
work.
What GAO Found:
Nationally, based on workload and staffing levels, the Bureau appears
to be well positioned to implement nonresponse follow-up. On both
counts, the Bureau‘s performance is meeting its expected goals. With
respect to the mail-back response rate, the Bureau expected a level of
between 59 percent and 65 percent. The actual mail-back response rate
when the Bureau determined the universe of houses to visit for
nonresponse follow-up on April 19, was 63.2 percent, well within its
estimates. The mail-back response rate for L.A. City was 61.4 percent,
and L.A. County was 64.7 percent. In terms of staffing, the Bureau met
its goals both nationally as well as for L.A. Still, the Bureau could
encounter pockets of challenges at the local level where mail-back
response rates are less than expected. Further, the reliability of a
computer system needed to administer nonresponse follow-up is an open
question.
Participation in the census has decade-long implications for
individuals, communities, and states. For example, census data are
used to apportion House seats, redraw the boundaries of congressional
and local election districts, and help ensure compliance with civil
rights and other laws protecting our citizens. A complete count also
helps ensure that L.A. and other areas obtain their fair share of
federal assistance. Indeed, a number of formula grants allocate money
based at least in part on census and related population data. GAO‘s
recent analysis found that the 10 largest federal assistance programs
obligated an estimated $478 billion in fiscal year 2009 based, to some
extent, on census and related population data. The grants included
Medicaid, Highway Planning and Construction, Head Start, and the
Children‘s Health Insurance Program. Local governments as well as
businesses use census data for planning and investment decisions, and
to better tailor the services they provide.
Nationally, following up on nonresponding households is a daunting
task, and L.A. presents its own challenges and opportunities. For
example, data from a planning database the Bureau developed placed
L.A. County first on a list of the top 50 U.S. counties with the
highest number of people living in hard-to-count areas, based on data
from the 2000 Census. Factors contributing to the area‘s hard-to-count
challenges include poverty, unemployment, and language barriers.
Moving forward, among other activities, it will be important for the
Bureau to track various production, quality, and other indicators as
planned to help ensure nonresponse follow-up stays on track.
In summary, participation in the census is a quick, easy, and
confidential civic act that has a lasting impact on states, cities,
neighborhoods, and even individuals. But the benefits that can accrue
from a complete and accurate population tally can only occur if
Angelenos cooperate with enumerators when they knock on nonrespondents‘
doors in the weeks ahead.
What GAO Recommends:
GAO is not making new recommendations in this testimony, but past
reports recommended that the Bureau could build on lessons learned
from 2000 to improve its 2010 nonresponse follow-up operation. The
Bureau concurred with these recommendations and has taken steps to
implement them.
View [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-665T] or key
components. For more information, contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202)
512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:
I am pleased to be here today at the Center for Healthy Communities in
Los Angeles (L.A.), to discuss the importance of participating in the
2010 Census. As you know, the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) goes to
great lengths to secure a complete and accurate enumeration of the
more than 300 million people that live in our country. In fact, the
decennial census is an enterprise that few, if any, peacetime
endeavors can match in terms of its size, scope, complexity, and fixed
deadlines.
For the 2010 Census, the Bureau needed to successfully print 360
million questionnaires, hire a million temporary employees, partner
with over 200,000 public and private sector entities across the
country, and align thousands of disparate activities. The Bureau needs
to do all of this and more, do it right, and do it under an extremely
tight schedule. Perhaps most importantly, however, the Bureau cannot
do it alone. To the contrary, participation in the census, just like
voting and jury duty, is a civic responsibility that helps sustain a
democratic society. What does this mean, exactly? After all, the
census is fundamentally a head count. Does the participation of any
one person really make a difference?
For Angelenos, as with people across the country, a complete count has
implications for political representation and getting their fair share
of federal assistance. This is because data from the census--a
constitutionally mandated effort--are used to apportion seats in
Congress, redraw congressional districts, help allocate more than $400
billion in federal aid to state and local governments each year, and
remake local political boundaries. Census data are also used for
planning purposes by the public and private sectors. The bottom line
is that everything from House seats, to housing assistance, to
investment decisions by L.A. businesses are determined, in whole or in
part, by census data.
This afternoon's hearing is particularly timely as tomorrow the Bureau
will launch its massive follow-up effort with the roughly 48 million
households that did not mail back their census forms. As you know, the
Bureau mailed out census questionnaires to around 120 million
households in mid-March and hand delivered an additional 12 million
questionnaires, mainly in rural areas, as well as in areas along the
Gulf Coast affected by recent hurricanes. Both types of forms were to
be returned by mail. On May 1, the Bureau's nonresponse follow-up
operation begins. As part of the operation, over 600,000 enumerators
will fan out across the country, personally contacting each
nonresponding housing unit as many as six times in an effort to ensure
everyone is counted.
Cooperation with census enumerators during this next phase of data
collection will be especially important. The city of L.A.'s mail-back
response rate as of April 19, 2010, when the Bureau determined the
nonresponse follow-up workload, was 61.4 percent[Footnote 1]
(nationally, the mail-back response rate was just over 63 percent).
During the 2000 Census, the city's mail-back response rate when it
determined its nonresponse follow-up workload was 62.8 percent (the
national mail-back response rate for the short form, at that time, was
66.4 percent).[Footnote 2] For those who did not mail back their
census forms, nonresponse follow-up will be the last opportunity to be
directly counted in the census.
As requested, my remarks today will focus on the importance of census
participation, paying particular attention to (1) the Bureau's
preparedness for nonresponse follow-up in terms of workload and
staffing levels, (2) why it will be critical for Angelenos and others
across the country to cooperate with enumerators during nonresponse
follow-up, and (3) key steps the Bureau needs to take moving forward
to ensure nonresponse follow-up is timely and accurate.
My testimony today is based on our ongoing and completed reviews of
key census-taking operations (see "Related GAO Products" at the end of
this statement). In these reviews we analyzed key documents--including
plans, procedures, and guidance for the selected activities--and
interviewed cognizant Bureau officials at headquarters and local
census offices. In addition, we made on-site observations of certain
census activities across the country. These observations included the
Bureau's nonresponse follow-up efforts during the 2000 Census in
various locations across the country, among them three sections of
L.A.: Hollywood/Mid-Wilshire, L.A. Downtown, and Santa Monica. For the
2010 Census, we observed key census-taking activities in L.A., as well
as in Fresno and San Bernardino, California; plus Atlanta, Georgia;
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; and Washington, D.C., among other
locations. We selected these cities because of their geographic and
demographic diversity, among other factors. Further, to gain greater
insight into the local census operations, we surveyed the Bureau's 494
local census office managers using a series of online questionnaires
about their experience in managing local census office activities.
On April 19, 2010, we provided the Bureau with a statement of facts
for our audit work, and on April 22, 2010, the Bureau provided
technical comments, which we included as appropriate. We conducted our
work in accordance with generally accepted government auditing
standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audits
to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable
basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for
our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
Background:
The Bureau takes extraordinary measures to produce a complete and
accurate census. To date, for example, the Bureau has sent
questionnaires to 120 million housing units for occupants to complete
and mail back. The Bureau also hand-delivered around 12 million
questionnaires--mostly in rural areas as well as in areas along the
Gulf Coast affected by recent hurricanes--for residents to fill out
and return via mail. In March and April, the Bureau simultaneously
launched operations aimed at counting people in migrant worker
housing, boats, tent cities, homeless shelters, nursing homes,
dormitories, prisons, and other diverse dwellings, all in an effort to
secure a complete count.
For those individuals who do not mail back their census forms, the
Bureau attempts to include them through its nonresponse follow-up
operation, which is scheduled to run from May 1 through July 10.
During this operation, over 600,000 enumerators are to go door-to-door
collecting census information from each address from which a
questionnaire was not received. Nonresponse follow-up is the most
costly and labor-intensive of all census-taking operations. The Bureau
expects nonresponse follow-up will cost around $2.3 billion, or around
16 percent of the decennial's total estimated lifecycle cost of around
$14.7 billion. By comparison, according to Bureau data on the 2000
nonresponse follow-up operation, labor, mileage, and certain
administrative costs alone amounted to around $1.76 billion (in 2010
dollars), or about 22 percent of the total $8.15 billion (in 2010
dollars) lifecycle cost of the 2000 Census.
Importantly, nonresponse follow-up is the last opportunity for people
to be directly counted in the census. Those individuals who are missed
by, or who do not respond to, census enumerators, are included through
methods that are indirect and not as accurate. In cases of refusal,
enumerators may be instructed to try to find a proxy respondent who
might know something about the occupants of a household. If this is
infeasible, data on the household are statistically imputed based on
the demographic characteristics of surrounding housing units.
This is significant for Angelenos for two reasons. First, for 2010,
the mail-back response rate, used for determining the nonresponse
follow-up workload, of 61.4 percent for the city of L.A. is lagging
the national rate of 63.2 percent. Second, in 2000, minority groups,
which comprise a large share of L.A.'s population, tended to return
their questionnaires at a lower rate compared to other groups, and
were more likely to be missed by the census. For example, as shown in
figure 1, nationally in 2000, whites had a higher mail return rate
(77.5 percent) than the rate for all groups (74.1 percent), while
nearly every other race/ethnic group had lower return rates than the
total mail return rate.[Footnote 3] The lowest mail return rates were
those of Pacific Islander (54.6 percent) and multi-racial (57.7
percent) households. Participating in nonresponse follow-up represents
an important opportunity to improve the quality of census data.
Figure 1: Mail Return Rates by Race/Ethnic Groups during the 2000
Census:
[Refer to PDF for image: vertical bar graph]
Race/Ethnicity: White;
Percent return rate: 77.5%.
Race/Ethnicity: Black:
Percent return rate: 59.7%.
Race/Ethnicity: American Indian;
Percent return rate: 64.5%.
Race/Ethnicity: Asian;
Percent return rate: 69.8%.
Race/Ethnicity: Pacific Islander;
Percent return rate: 54.6%.
Race/Ethnicity: Other race;
Percent return rate: 58.7%.
Race/Ethnicity: Two or more races;
Percent return rate: 57.5%.
Race/Ethnicity: Hispanic;
Percent return rate: 64.5%.
Race/Ethnicity: Non-Hispanic;
Percent return rate: 75%.
Return rate for all groups:
Percent return rate: 74.1%.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
[End of figure]
Despite these elaborate efforts to obtain a complete count, some
amount of error is unavoidable. However, what makes these errors
particularly problematic is their differential impact on various
subgroups. Minorities, renters, and children, for example, are more
likely to be missed by the census while more affluent groups, such as
people with vacation homes, are more likely to be included more than
once.
The Bureau Is Positioned to Conduct Nonresponse Follow-up but Could
Encounter Local and Other Challenges:
Nationally, in terms of workload (as measured by the mail-back
response rate) and staffing levels, the Bureau appears to be well
positioned to implement nonresponse follow-up. On both counts, the
Bureau's performance is meeting its expected goals. Nevertheless,
national-level data can mask challenges occurring at the local level,
and there are areas throughout the country where either the mail-back
response rate or staffing levels are lagging.
With respect to the mail-back response rate, the Bureau expected a
level of between 59 percent and 65 percent.The actual mail-back
response rate when the Bureau determined the universe of houses to
visit for nonresponse follow-up on April 19, was just over 63 percent,
well within its estimates.[Footnote 4] This translates into a workload
of around 48 million housing units. Achieving this mail-back response
rate is an important accomplishment as the nation's population is
growing steadily larger, more diverse, and according to the Bureau,
increasingly difficult to find and reluctant to participate in the
census.
High mail-back response rates are important because they save taxpayer
dollars. According to the Bureau, for every one-percentage point
increase in mail response in 2010, the Bureau saves $85 million that
would otherwise have been spent on nonresponse follow-up. According to
the Bureau, it costs 42 cents to mail back each census form in a
postage-paid envelope, compared with $57 for census takers to visit
each home. Moreover, mail returns tend to have better quality data.
Key factors aimed at improving the mail-back response rate included
the mailing of a reminder postcard; sending a second or "replacement"
questionnaire to around 30 million households in census tracts that
had the lowest response rates in the 2000 Census, and 12-million
replacement questionnaires to nonresponding households in other census
tracts that had low-to-moderate response rates in 2000; and an
aggressive marketing and outreach program.
The Bureau also appears to be in good shape nationally from the
perspective of enumerator staffing. In terms of recruiting, the
Bureau's goal was to recruit 3.7 million applicants to fill over
600,000 enumerator and other positions by April 25. As of April 11,
the Bureau had recruited 3,717,757 applicants, or 101 percent of its
target.
While the Bureau appears to be well-positioned from a national
perspective to carry out nonresponse follow-up, the decennial is
essentially a local endeavor, where the operational environment and
challenges the Bureau faces vary markedly from one locale to another.
In this regard, several locations stand out. For example, the mail-
back response rates in some large cities trail the 2010 national
response rate of 63.2 percent, and/or the response rate they achieved
during the 2000 Census. They include Detroit, New Orleans, San
Antonio, and San Diego (see table 1).
Table 1: Selected Cities with Mail-Back Response Rates for 2010 That
Are Lower Than 2000:
City: Detroit;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: 2000 Census: 61.4%;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: 2010 Census: (as of April 19, 2010):
45.9%;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: Difference: 15.5%.
City: New Orleans;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: 2000 Census: 50.1%;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: 2010 Census: (as of April 19, 2010):
42.5%;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: Difference: 7.6%.
City: San Antonio;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: 2000 Census: 66.9%;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: 2010 Census: (as of April 19, 2010):
61.0%;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: Difference: 5.9%.
City: San Diego;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: 2000 Census: 71.5%;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: 2010 Census: (as of April 19, 2010):
64.5%;
City Mail-Back Response Rates: Difference: 7%.
Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
[End of table]
Likewise, there are three local census offices that have less than two
qualified applicants per field position--the Bureau's recruitment
target. These offices continue their recruiting efforts, and the
Bureau has plans to staff operations with recruits from neighboring
local census offices, if necessary.
With respect to L.A., as shown in table 2, L.A. City is trailing the
state and national mail-back response rates as of April 19, 2010, as
well as comparable benchmarks from the 2000 Census.
Table 2: 2010 Census Mail-Back Response Rates Compared to 2000:
Level of Geography: National;
Census Mail-Back Response Rates: 2000 Census: 66.4%;
Census Mail-Back Response Rates: 2010 Census (as of April 19, 2010):
63.2%.
Level of Geography: California;
Census Mail-Back Response Rates: 2000 Census: 68.9%;
Census Mail-Back Response Rates: 2010 Census (as of April 19, 2010):
64.6%.
Level of Geography: L.A. County;
Census Mail-Back Response Rates: 2000 Census: 68.3%;
Census Mail-Back Response Rates: 2010 Census (as of April 19, 2010):
64.7%.
Level of Geography: L.A. City;
Census Mail-Back Response Rates: 2000 Census: 62.8%;
Census Mail-Back Response Rates: 2010 Census (as of April 19, 2010):
61.4%.
Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
[End of table]
In terms of recruiting, the L.A. region has met its recruiting goals.
For example, the Bureau's recruiting goal for the L.A. region was
266,370, and as of April 18, 2010, the Bureau had recruited 350,187 or
131 percent of its goal. Starting pay for enumerators, which is based
on local labor markets, is $17 per hour in the L.A. area.
Aside from workload and staffing, the reliability of the Bureau's
automated systems, and in particular an information technology (IT)
system used for managing the Bureau's field operations, is an open
question. In earlier tests and prior activities, the operational
control system did not function reliably, and the Bureau had to
restrict the number of users in local census offices because of
capacity limitations. The Bureau has taken steps to mitigate the risks
posed by the unreliable IT systems, including upgrading hardware and
software, but time will tell whether they will be able to perform as
needed under full operational loads.
Cooperation with Enumerators Will Help California Count in the 2010
Census:
Census Data Are Critical for Representative Democracy:
The Constitution requires a census every 10 years in order to
apportion seats in the House of Representatives. Moreover, while not
required by the Constitution, states use census data to redraw the
boundaries of congressional districts. Although a few missed
households might not seem particularly problematic, especially in a
nation of more than 300 million people, a complete count is necessary
because, in some cases, small differences in population totals could
potentially impact apportionment or redistricting decisions, or both.
Indeed, during the 2000 Census, the last House seat could have gone to
Utah rather than North Carolina if Utah's population had around 850
more people.
More broadly, census data are used to help protect our democratic
system of government. For example, block-by-block census data were
used in reapportioning state legislatures in the 1960s, as discussed
in the Supreme Court's "one person, one vote" landmark case of
Reynolds v. Simms.[Footnote 5] Further, census data are used to help
ensure compliance with federal civil rights and other laws protecting
our citizens.
Census Data Are Used to Allocate Federal Aid to States and Localities:
Many federal assistance programs are funded by formula grants that
have historically relied, at least in part, on census and related
population data to allocate funds. In our recent analysis, we found
that the 10 largest federal assistance programs obligated an estimated
$478 billion in fiscal year 2009 based, to some extent, on census and
related population data.[Footnote 6] This amount represents about 84
percent of total federal assistance. The grants included Medicaid,
Highway Planning and Construction, Head Start, and the Children's
Health Insurance Program.
A recent study by the Brookings Institution calculated that in fiscal
year 2008, federal assistance programs distributed a total of $19.8
billion in total program expenditures, or $1,988 for each person in
L.A. County.[Footnote 7] Medicaid, a joint federal-state program that
finances health care for certain low-income individuals, was by far
the single largest program, accounting for $14.7 billion, or around 75
percent of total expenditures. Other assistance went to programs that
included transportation, education, training, employment, social
services, and income security.
Beyond these specific numbers, this much is clear: While population is
one of several factors that can affect the distribution of federal
assistance, boosting the participation rate, especially for hard-to-
count groups, helps ensure that Angelenos obtain their fair share of
federal assistance. This is a particularly important goal given the
fiscal challenges that L.A. and the state of California are facing.
Local Governments Use Census Data to Plan for and Provide Services:
The decennial census yields data that states use not only to determine
boundaries for congressional districts, but also to establish
boundaries for smaller jurisdictions such as local election and school
districts. The census is also a rich source of data to help county and
city governments plan for and provide a variety of services. For
Angelenos, this could mean help in answering such questions as:
* Will the population of preschoolers in various neighborhoods warrant
building additional elementary schools?
* Are the mass transit systems reaching the people likely to use
public transport?
* Where and when should the next senior citizen facility be built?
Without federal census data, state and local governments would have to
undertake their own headcounts, a costly alternative given the Census
Bureau's experience and economies of scale. Further, a less-than-
complete count could result in the inefficient allocation of taxpayer
dollars.
Census Data Help Businesses Make Investment and Planning Decisions:
Businesses use the aggregated census data to plan for and provide
their services and goods. Census data about population trends help
businesses succeed--and provide jobs in the process--by alerting them
of opportunities to provide new services and products and to tailor
existing ones to reflect demographic changes. Census data also help
businesses efficiently target their advertising dollars and better
meet the needs of their clients and customers. For example, a free
issue of a magazine focused on the interests of Hispanic readers can
be distributed based on information at the census block level.
Likewise, retail chains can use census data to inform decisions on
what mix of multicultural products--from cosmetics to music--they
should carry. Companies also use population data to locate where to
place new stores, as well as where to place production facilities
where they can expect to find a suitable labor force.
Census Participation Is Safe:
While the Bureau does a lot with the information people report, there
are a number of things the Bureau will not do with it. For example,
the answers that are provided cannot be shared with anyone, including
law enforcement or tax collection agencies. The answers cannot be used
in court, and they cannot be obtained with a Freedom of Information
Act request. Federal law protects respondents' privacy and keeps the
information confidential.
Further, in March 2010, the U.S. Justice Department confirmed that
provisions of the Patriot Act[Footnote 8] that pertain to the
gathering and sharing of information do not override legal provisions
that protect the confidentiality of census data. In short, everyone
who lives in the country should feel safe about participating in the
census, regardless of their immigration status.
Key Steps Could Help Ensure Timely and Accurate Follow-up Operations:
Nationally, following up on nonresponding households is a daunting
task, and L.A. presents its own challenges and opportunities. For
example, data from a planning database the Bureau developed placed
L.A. County first on a list of the top 50 U.S. counties with the
highest number of people living in hard-to-count areas, based on data
from the 2000 Census. Specifically, 4.4 million people of L.A.
County's total population of more than 9 million people (46 percent)
lived in hard-to-count census tracts in 2000. Factors contributing to
the area's hard-to-count challenges include poverty, unemployment, and
language barriers.
In our review of nonresponse follow-up during the 2000 Census, we
noted that the Bureau has historically faced the combined challenge of
(1) collecting quality data directly from household members, while (2)
completing the operation on schedule, before error rates can increase
as people move or have trouble remembering who was living at their
homes on Census Day (April 1, 2010), as well as for keeping subsequent
operations on track. For methodological reasons, the Bureau needs to
complete its field data collection workload before a subsequent
accuracy check can begin.[Footnote 9]
During the 2000 Census, finding the optimal balance between these two
objectives was sometimes a challenge for the Bureau. Indeed, to help
ensure that local census offices completed nonresponse follow-up on
schedule, the Bureau developed ambitious interim "stretch" goals that
called on local census offices to complete 80 percent of their
nonresponse follow-up workload within the first 4 weeks of the
operation and be completely finished by the end of the 8th week of the
10-week long effort. We found that these production goals generated
mixed results.
Specifically, 17 percent of the sample of local census office managers
we surveyed during the 2000 Census believed that the pressure had a
positive or significantly positive impact; 41 percent believed that
scheduling pressure had little or no impact on the quality of the
operation; and 40 percent of the respondents believed that the
pressure during nonresponse follow-up had a negative or significantly
negative impact on the quality of the enumeration. Of those managers
in the latter group, a common perception appeared to be that
production was emphasized more than accuracy and that the schedule
required local census offices to curtail procedures that could have
improved data quality. Further, a small number of local census offices
improperly collected less complete data and took other shortcuts
(which the Bureau took steps to rectify).
Nationally, however, our analysis of Bureau data showed that those
local census offices that completed their 2000 Census nonresponse
follow-up workloads faster than the others did not collect larger
quantities of less-than-complete data, such as partial interviews.
For the 2010 Census, the Bureau will conduct a quality assurance
procedure it refers to as "outlier reinterviews," where the Bureau is
to revisit or "reinterview" those households where characteristics of
an enumerator's work differ from other enumerators collecting data in
the same vicinity. In such cases, enumerators could be fabricating
data. Outlier reinterviews are one of several types of reinterviews
the Bureau plans to use for 2010.
Although the Bureau had procedures for various types of reinterviews,
including a form of outlier reinterviews, for the 2000 Census, local
census office managers often decided against conducting them. Indeed,
52 local census offices--about 10 percent of all local offices--did
not conduct any reinterviews after a random check of enumerators'
initial work. For the 2010 Census, the outlier interview cases will be
automatically selected as opposed to being controlled by clerks in the
local census offices. This could help ensure that outlier cases are
investigated per the Bureau's reinterview procedures.
More generally, as the Bureau completes its nonresponse follow-up
workload, it will be important for it to closely track various
indicators of the pace, production levels, and quality of the
operation as planned, and quickly investigate and appropriately
address any peculiarities that could be indicative of falsification or
other data quality issues. At the same time, it will be important for
the Bureau to fully leverage its partnership program--an effort where
specially trained Bureau employees engage key government and community
organizations to support the census--to help pave the way for
nonresponse follow-up and improve cooperation with enumerators. For
example, based on our review of the 2000 Census, partnership staff
could, among other activities, reach out to building managers and
community leaders to gain access to secure apartment buildings and
gated communities, and take other steps to deal with enumeration
challenges.
However, the initial results of our 2010 survey on local census office
managers suggest that there is room for improvement, in many cases, in
the relationships between the local census offices and partnership
staff. For example, of the 395 of 494 local census office managers who
responded to our question about their satisfaction with the
communication between the local census office and with partnership
staff, 39 percent indicated they were generally or very satisfied, 46
percent were generally or very dissatisfied, and 14 percent were
neither satisfied or dissatisfied.
Likewise, when asked about the partnership staff's assistance with
local challenges, 39 percent of responding local census office
managers were generally or very satisfied, 43 percent were generally
or very dissatisfied, while 18 percent were neither satisfied nor
dissatisfied.
The 26 local census office managers in the Bureau's L.A. region--an
area extending from L.A. proper south to the Mexican border--held
views similar to managers nationwide. Moving forward, it will be
important for the Bureau to take appropriate steps to ensure that the
efforts of the partnership staff are aligned with and fully supportive
of the activities carried out by local census offices. For example,
one partnership specialist we met with noted that having weekly, in-
person meetings with local census office managers helped coordinate
the work they were doing.
Concluding Observations:
As measured by workload and staffing levels, the Bureau is generally
well-positioned to launch nonresponse follow-up. The operation starts
tomorrow and will have more than 600,000 enumerators fan out across
the country, collecting census information from those households that
did not mail back their forms.
That said, the success of the enumeration is determined as much by
what happens at the local level, as by national trends. With that in
mind, the level of cooperation that occurs in the coming weeks on
doorsteps across the country--as well as right here in downtown and
South L.A.; Echo Park and Westlake; Wilshire and East Hollywood; and
in neighborhoods all across L.A. City and County--will determine, to a
large degree, the ultimate cost and quality of the decennial census.
Mr. Chairman and members of this Subcommittee, this concludes my
statement. I would be happy to respond to any questions that you might
have at this time.
Contacts and Acknowledgments:
If you have any questions on matters discussed in this statement,
please contact Robert Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 or by e-mail at
goldenkoffr@gao.gov. Other key contributors to this testimony include
David Bobruff, Sara Daleski, Dewi Djunaidy, Ronald Fecso, Richard
Hung, Kirsten Lauber, Andrea Levine, Kathleen Padulchick, Lisa
Pearson, and Timothy Wexler.
[End of section]
Related GAO Products:
2010 Census: Data Collection Is Under Way, but Reliability of Key
Information Technology Systems Remains a Risk. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-567T]. Washington, D.C.: March 25,
2010.
2010 Census: Operational Changes Made for 2010 Position the U.S.
Census Bureau to More Accurately Classify and Identify Group Quarters.
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-452T]. Washington,
D.C.: February 22, 2010.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Made Progress on Schedule and
Operational Control Tools, but Needs to Prioritize Remaining System
Requirements. [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-59].
Washington, D.C.: November 13, 2009.
2010 Census: Efforts to Build an Accurate Address List Are Making
Progress, but Face Software and Other Challenges. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-140T]. Washington, D.C.: October
21, 2009.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Continues to Make Progress in Mitigating
Risks to a Successful Enumeration, but Still Faces Various Challenges.
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-132T]. Washington,
D.C.: October 7, 2009.
2010 Census: Communications Campaign Has Potential to Boost
Participation. [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-525T].
Washington, D.C.: March 23, 2009.
2010 Census: Fundamental Building Blocks of a Successful Enumeration
Face Challenges. [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-430T].
Washington, D.C.: March 5, 2009.
Information Technology: Census Bureau Testing of 2010 Decennial
Systems Can Be Strengthened. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-262]. Washington, D.C.: March 5,
2009.
2010 Census: The Bureau's Plans for Reducing the Undercount Show
Promise, but Key Uncertainties Remain. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-1167T]. Washington, D.C.: September
23, 2008.
2010 Census: Census Bureau's Decision to Continue with Handheld
Computers for Address Canvassing Makes Planning and Testing Critical.
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-936]. Washington, D.C.:
July 31, 2008.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Take Action to Improve the
Credibility and Accuracy of Its Cost Estimate for the Decennial
Census. [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-554].
Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2008.
2010 Census: Census at Critical Juncture for Implementing Risk
Reduction Strategies. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-659T]. Washington, D.C.: April 9,
2008.
Information Technology: Census Bureau Needs to Improve Its Risk
Management of Decennial Systems. [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-79]. Washington, D.C.: October 5,
2007.
2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining Challenges Need
Prompt Resolution. [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-05-9].
Washington, D.C.: January 12, 2005.
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] The boundaries of the census tracts used to generate these
estimates are not identical to the actual political boundaries of the
city so the actual value for the city may differ slightly.
[2] In the 2000 Census, the Bureau mailed out both long-and short-form
questionnaires. The short-form questionnaire had a higher response
rate because it had fewer questions. For the 2010 Census, the Bureau
used only a short-form questionnaire. For this testimony we use the
2000 Census short-form mail response rate when comparing 2000 and 2010
mail-back response rates.
[3] The mail return rate differs from the mail response rate in that
the mail response rate is calculated as a percentage of all the
housing units in the mail-back universe, including those that are
later discovered to be nonexistent or unoccupied. The Bureau uses this
mail-back response percentage as an indicator of its nonresponse
follow-up workload.
[4] As discussed in the previous footnote, the mail-back response rate
is calculated as a percentage of all forms in the mail-back universe
from which the Bureau received a questionnaire. Although it includes
households whose forms were returned by the U.S. Postal Service as
"undeliverable" and thus might be vacant or nonexistent, the Bureau
still sends enumerators to follow-up on them to ensure a complete
count. We report the mail-back response rate because it is a measure
of the nonresponse follow-up workload; the workload, in turn, has
implications for the final cost of the census. On its Web site, the
Bureau reports what it refers to as the "participation rate." This
number differs from the mail-back response rate in that it excludes
undeliverable questionnaires. The Bureau reports this figure because
it is a better indicator of the public's cooperation with the census.
[5] 377 U.S. 533 (1964).
[6] GAO, Formula Grants: Funding for the Largest Federal Assistance
Programs Is Based on Census-Related Data and Other Factors,
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-263] (Washington, D.C.:
Dec. 15, 2009).
[7] Andrew Reamer, Counting for Dollars: The Role of the Decennial
Census in the Distribution of Federal Funds, Brookings (Washington,
D.C.: March 2010).
[8] Pub. L. No. 107-56, 115 Stat. 272. The Patriot Act was enacted
following the September 11, 2001, attacks in order to assist in the
prevention of future terrorist incidents.
[9] GAO, 2000 Census: Best Practices and Lessons Learned for More Cost-
Effective Nonresponse Follow-up, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-02-196] (Washington, D.C.: Feb. 11,
2002).
[End of section]
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