The Army's Risk Assessment of Chemical Munitions Transportation

Gao ID: T-NSIAD-88-2 October 19, 1987

GAO discussed the Army's chemical munitions disposal program to determine whether the Army's draft impact statement fully addressed all of the aspects of risk involved in disposing of or transporting chemical munitions. GAO found that the analysis was incomplete because the Army did not: (1) cover alternative accident and transportation probabilities; (2) provide adequate emergency response capabilities; and (3) adequately disclose its limited air monitoring technology. GAO also found that the: (1) statement contained uncertainties that affected the accuracy of the accident and environmental impact estimates; (2) limited available data affected the assessment results; and (3) Army did not include any assessment of the risk of sabotage or terrorism. GAO believes that the Army should explicitly indicate data and methodological weaknesses and their impacts in its statement.

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