Early Warning Satellites

Funding for Follow-on System Is Premature Gao ID: NSIAD-92-39 November 7, 1991

The Defense Support Program is a surveillance and warning satellite system with an infrared capability to detect ballistic missile launches. GAO found that the Department of Defense's (DOD) plans to develop a follow-on system for the program may provide more capability than the existing system, but providing funding to start the development effort in fiscal year 1992 would be premature. DOD has not completed its selection process, which will consider several system alternatives. Although the best alternative is still unknown, five separate studies suggest that an enhanced Defense Support Program could be nearly as effective and would cost billions less than a fully capable Follow-on Early Warning System. The Air Force has estimated the cost of the initial Follow-on Early Warning System and an Advanced Early Warning System but has not estimated the incremental costs to move from the initial Follow-on Early Warning System to a fully capable system meeting the validated requirements. This lack of complete information and the incomplete selection process raise concerns about DOD's plans to spend $166 million to initiate development of the Follow-on Early Warning System at this time.

GAO found that: (1) DOD favors a Follow-on Early Warning System (FEWS) which could provide more capability than the DSP system; (2) providing funds to start FEWS development efforts in fiscal year (FY) 1992 would be premature because DOD has not considered several system alternatives; (3) the best alternative is still unknown, but five separate studies indicate that an enhanced DSP could be nearly as effective and would cost billions less than a fully capable FEWS; (4) the Air Force is faced with an affordability problem and has proposed a design-to-budget solution for a less capable system; (5) the Air Force has not estimated the incremental costs to transition from the initial FEWS to a fully capable FEWS and cannot make a sound decision without those factors; and (6) the Air Force plans to spend $166 million to initiate the FEWS program in FY 1992.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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