ICBM Modernization

Minuteman III Guidance Replacement Program Has Not Been Adequately Justified Gao ID: NSIAD-93-181 June 25, 1993

The Minuteman III weapon system is expected to be the nation's only fielded land-based intercontinental ballistic missile system after 2003. The Pentagon plans to modify the system--at a cost of $4.6 billion--so that it can continue operating until 2020. By then, the weapon system will be 50 years old, a far cry from the original plans envisioning a 10-year life span for the Minuteman. GAO believes that it would be premature to begin engineering and manufacturing development of the first phase of the guidance replacement program in August 1993. These efforts should be delayed until the Air Force has completed the necessary studies and analyses to justify proceeding. The program's second phase is uncertain at this time, pending a better definition of the post-Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty mix of U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces and capabilities. Even if enhanced operational capabilities are agreed upon and the Minuteman III will need to be upgraded, it remains to be seen whether the planned advanced inertial measurement system is the best way of delivering these capabilities.

GAO found that: (1) the Air Force has not justified proceeding with engineering and manufacturing development of the Minuteman III guidance electronics replacement program; (2) program assessments have not indicated current or future degradation of missile guidance system-level performance; (3) the most troublesome electronic circuitry concerns are being corrected and the severity of remaining anomalies is not apparent; (4) the deterioration of Minuteman II electronic components may not be relevant to Minuteman III performance, since many problems have been corrected in the development and manufacture of Minuteman III; and (5) the Air Force has not finalized its justification and plans for replacing inertial instrumentation because of uncertainty over treaty ratification and implementation and the capabilities of U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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