Ballistic Missile Defense

Computation of Number of Patriot PAC-3 Interceptors Needed Is Flawed Gao ID: NSIAD-95-45 March 17, 1995

The theater missile defense is intended to protect U.S. forces overseas and their allies from ballistic missile attacks. The Ballistic Missile Defense Organization (BMDO) argues that an improved defense capability is urgently because of the proliferation of theater ballistic missiles to countries that could pose a threat to U.S. forces. BMDO has established as its top priority a "core program" or improvements for the theater missile defense consisting of the Theater High Altitude Area Defense, seabased lower tier, and the Patriot Advanced Capability-Three interceptors. BMDO plans to produce 1,200 of the interceptors. This reports assesses (1) how the number of interceptors needed was determined and (2) whether the issue of affordability was adequately resolved.

GAO found that: (1) the actual number of PAC-3 interceptors needed is uncertain; (2) the Department of Defense (DOD) used inaccurate assumptions and made mathematical errors in its affordability analysis; (3) if the estimated quantity is greater than 1,200 PAC-3 interceptors, the program could be underfunded by between $700 million and $3.4 billion; and (4) to avoid spending on programs that may require more funding than is available, DOD must determine the number of interceptors needed and adjust its program within budget constraints.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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