Foreign Missile Threats

Analytic Soundness of National Intelligence Estimate 95-19 Gao ID: T-NSIAD-97-53 December 4, 1996

The principal finding of a recent national intelligence estimate that no new foreign power will develop or acquire ballistic missiles that could threaten North America during the next 15 years was worded with 100 percent certainty. GAO found that because of intelligence gaps, this level of certainty was overstated--one of a number of shortcomings in the estimate. This testimony is based on an August 1996 GAO report (GAO/NSIAD-96-225) that evaluates National Intelligence Estimate 95-19, "Emerging Missile Threats to North America During the Next 15 Years."



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