Weather Service Modernization

At an estimated cost of $4.5 billion, the National Weather Service's (NWS) systems modernization program is one of the largest modernization efforts in the federal government. Modernization is vital if NWS is to improve its operations and streamline its organization. GAO sees clear benefits in the NWS modernization--improved weather forecasts and warnings. GAO also sees risks--risks that can only be reduced through the development and enforcement of a systems modernization architecture, careful implementation of planned mitigation techniques in the case of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System, and commitment to earlier planning in the case of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. GAO has included the NWS effort in its list of government programs at high risk for waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement. (See GAO/HR-97-9, Feb. 1997.)

GAO noted that: (1) to reach the goal of better forecasting and earlier warnings with a smaller, downsized operation, the Weather Service has been acquiring new observing systems, including radars, satellites, and ground-based sensors, as well as powerful forecaster workstations; (2) the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) integrates, for the first time, satellite, radar, and other data to support weather forecaster decision-making and communications, and it is the linchpin of the NWS modernization; (3) operating under a $550-million funding cap, the system is expected to be fully deployed in 1999; (4) AWIPS development systems have been delivered to 16 locations nationwide, which represents the first two of six modules, or "builds"; (5) AWIPS is planned for a total of 152 locations once fully deployed; (6) the Next Generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite is a program to acquire, launch, and control five satellites for identifying and tracking severe weather events, such as hurricanes; (7) the first satellite was launched in 1994, and the second in 1995; (8) three more satellites are planned for launch between now and 2002; (9) the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) is a program to acquire 163 Doppler radars; (10) scheduled for completion this year, 121 of the planned 123 NWS NEXRAD radars have been delivered to operational locations; (11) the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) is a program to automate and enhance methods for collecting, processing, and displaying surface weather conditions, such as temperature and precipitation, and to replace human weather observers; (12) scheduled for completion in fiscal year 1998, the ASOS system has been installed at 265 of the 314 planned NWS operational locations; (13) the Weather Service has generated better data, particularly with the new radars and satellites, and greatly improved forecasts and warnings; (14) notwithstanding such successes, however, each of the four programs has experienced cost increases and schedule delays; and (15) some of these delays can be attributed to changes in requirements; others were caused by program management and development problems.