Space Acquisitions

In a multibillion-dollar effort, the Department of Defense (DOD) plans to build a space-based communications system that leverages technologies never before used in space. Such a system would enable DOD to transform how information is collected on potential U.S. adversaries and how military forces are warned of hostile action. The backbone of this system will be the Transformational Satellite (TSAT), which is expected to play a pivotal role in connecting communications networks on the ground, in the air, on ships, and in space. TSAT represents a potential leap forward in communications speed, security, and availability. The Air Force, which heads up DOD's space programs, intends for TSAT to be interoperable with similar systems being acquired for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the intelligence agencies. The initial TSAT program is expected to cost about $12 billion from 2003 to 2015 for development and production. Several billions more are to be spent acquiring and supporting the associated ground infrastructure, including thousands of user terminals. The Air Force intends to start the acquisition program in December 2003 and expects to launch the first TSAT in 2011. To help pay for TSAT, the Air Force has scaled back its acquisition of the Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) satellites currently under development. However, because of senior military commanders' concerns about TSAT's risks and the potential delay in delivering improved space communications, the Air Force plans to reassess the need for future AEHF funding in November 2004. If TSAT is considered too high a risk to meet the warfighter's expectations, the contingency plan is to take TSAT's funding--thereby delaying TSAT's development--and use it to buy another AEHF satellite. The Air Force has targeted November 2004 as the latest date such a decision could be made and still include funds for AEHF in the DOD budget submission for fiscal year 2006. We conducted this assessment in response to the large investment planned and the importance of the communications capabilities promised by TSAT and AEHF. Specifically, we assessed the Air Force's readiness to (1) initiate a TSAT acquisition program in December 2003 and (2) make a decision in November 2004 about whether to take TSAT funding and use it to buy another AEHF satellite.

Air Force officials have set two imminent deadlines: starting the TSAT program in December 2003, and deciding whether to shift funding from TSAT to AEHF in November 2004. The Air Force is currently not prepared to make an informed decision in either case. Air Force officials are not ready to initiate the TSAT program in December 2003 because they do not have the knowledge to reliably establish cost, schedule, and performance goals. At program start, program managers are required by law to establish such goals. Our past work on successful acquisition programs has found that these goals cannot be set reliably unless the critical technologies and design have been determined to meet minimum performance requirements. Programs that do not have this knowledge at program start have a much greater risk of resorting to costly design changes later in the development process, asking the warfighter to compromise on desired capabilities, or incurring schedule overruns to correct problems. Realizing that TSAT's schedule is ambitious, the Air Force added 2 years to the acquisition program. However, the extra time was mostly allocated to the latter part of the development process, not to the front end, when program managers typically need the time to become reasonably certain that technologies and early designs will work as envisioned. We are concerned about the Air Force's readiness to make the planned decision in November 2004 to take TSAT funding to buy another AEHF satellite in case the TSAT program falters. Air Force officials have not defined what evaluation criteria they intend to use in making this decision. Senior military commanders want assurance that they will get at least the level of capabilities promised by AEHF early in the next decade. However, senior DOD and Air Force officials told us that if funds were shifted from TSAT back to AEHF, then TSAT--the linchpin of its plan to transform military communications--would be substantially delayed. To promote well-informed and objective investment decisions, our past work has found that decision makers establish and use measurable criteria for evaluating the costs, benefits, and risks of various alternatives.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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