DOD Should Provide Congress and the American Public with Monthly Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq in a Timely Manner
Gao ID: GAO-07-1048R September 28, 2007In January 2007, the President stated that the high levels of violence in Iraq had overwhelmed the political gains that the Iraqis had made and required a new U.S. strategy for stabilizing the country. The new strategy recognized that until the Iraqi people have a basic measure of security, they would not be able to make significant and sustainable political and economic progress. To help Iraqi leaders provide security for their population, the United States deployed about 30,000 additional troops to Iraq during the spring of 2007, bringing the total number of U.S. military personnel up to about 160,000 as of mid-June 2007. Enemy-initiated attacks data are a key indicator of progress in improving Iraq's security situation, an important condition that, according to the administration, must be met before the United States can reduce its military presence in Iraq. While attacks data alone may not provide a complete picture of Iraq's security situation, Department of Defense (DOD) and Multinational Force-Iraq (MNF-I) officials state that the data provide a reasonably sound depiction of general security trends in the country. Since 2004, we have periodically provided this information to Congress in classified and unclassified briefings, reports, and testimonies. In response to GAO's requests, various DOD components--most recently the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)--have assisted GAO in publicly reporting trends in the security situation by declassifying the attacks data on a monthly basis. In our report on the status of the achievement of Iraqi benchmarks, we provided attacks data through July 31, 2007.2 This report provides data through August 31, 2007.
Overall security conditions in Iraq have deteriorated and grown more complex, since May 2003, as evidenced by the increased numbers of attacks and the Sunni-Shi'a sectarian strife that followed the February 2006 bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra. Enemy-initiated attacks against the coalition and its Iraqi partners increased through October 2006 and have remained at high levels since that time. These attacks have increased around major religious and political events, including Ramadan3 and elections. Coalition forces are still the primary target of attacks, but the number of attacks on Iraqi security forces and civilians also has increased since 2003.
RecommendationsOur recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.
Director: Joseph A. Christoff Team: Government Accountability Office: International Affairs and Trade Phone: (202) 512-8979GAO-07-1048R, DOD Should Provide Congress and the American Public with Monthly Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq in a Timely Manner
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September 28, 2007:
Congressional Committees:
Subject: DOD Should Provide Congress and the American Public with
Monthly Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq in a Timely Manner:
In January 2007, the President stated that the high levels of violence
in Iraq had overwhelmed the political gains that the Iraqis had made
and required a new U.S. strategy for stabilizing the country. The new
strategy recognized that until the Iraqi people have a basic measure of
security, they would not be able to make significant and sustainable
political and economic progress. To help Iraqi leaders provide security
for their population, the United States deployed about 30,000
additional troops to Iraq during the spring of 2007, bringing the total
number of U.S. military personnel up to about 160,000 as of mid-June
2007.
Enemy-initiated attacks data are a key indicator of progress in
improving Iraq's security situation, an important condition that,
according to the administration, must be met before the United States
can reduce its military presence in Iraq. While attacks data alone may
not provide a complete picture of Iraq's security situation, Department
of Defense (DOD) and Multinational Force-Iraq (MNF-I) officials state
that the data provide a reasonably sound depiction of general security
trends in the country. Since 2004, we have periodically provided this
information to Congress in classified and unclassified briefings,
reports, and testimonies.[Footnote 1] In response to GAO's requests,
various DOD components--most recently the Defense Intelligence Agency
(DIA)--have assisted GAO in publicly reporting trends in the security
situation by declassifying the attacks data on a monthly basis. In our
report on the status of the achievement of Iraqi benchmarks, we
provided attacks data through July 31, 2007.[Footnote 2] This report
provides data through August 31, 2007.
While the administration has provided the Congress with aggregated
attacks data in DOD's quarterly reports and more limited attacks
information in the July and September 2007 benchmarks reports, it is
important that the Congress and the American public receive the monthly
attacks data routinely from the Department of Defense. We are
recommending that DOD make the data publicly available each month in a
timely manner.
The updated attacks data we provide in this letter are sufficiently
reliable for establishing general trends in the number of enemy-
initiated attacks in Iraq. To determine the reliability of the data, we
reviewed MNF-I's attacks reporting guidance, compared the unclassified
data to classified sources, and discussed how the data are collected,
analyzed, and reported with DIA and MNF-I officials. While the attacks
data provide a reasonably sound depiction of security trends, DOD
documents and officials acknowledge that these data provide only a
partial picture of the violence in Iraq because not all attacks against
civilians and Iraqi security forces are observed by or reported to
coalition forces. Our latest analysis of attacks data was conducted
from June through August 2007 in accordance with generally accepted
government auditing standards.
Enemy-Initiated Attacks Remain at High Levels:
Overall security conditions in Iraq have deteriorated and grown more
complex, since May 2003, as evidenced by the increased numbers of
attacks and the Sunni-Shi'a sectarian strife that followed the February
2006 bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra. Enemy-initiated attacks
against the coalition and its Iraqi partners increased through October
2006 and have remained at high levels since that time (see fig. 1).
These attacks have increased around major religious and political
events, including Ramadan[Footnote 3]and elections. Coalition forces
are still the primary target of attacks, but the number of attacks on
Iraqi security forces and civilians also has increased since 2003.
Figure 1: Enemy-Initiated Attacks against the Coalition, Iraqi Security
Forces, and Civilians (May 2003 through August 2007):
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO analysis of DIA-reported Multi-National Force-Iraq data,
August 2007.
Note: Attacks against infrastructure account for less than 1 percent of
enemy-initiated attacks.
[End of figure]
Following the President's announcement of the new U.S. strategy, the
average number of daily attacks[Footnote 4] decreased slightly from
about 170 in January 2007 to about 160 in March 2007 but then increased
to about 180 in June 2007 (see fig. 2). The average number of daily
attacks in June 2007 was about the same level as the prior high of
about 180 attacks per day, which occurred in October 2006 around the
time of Ramadan. The average number of daily attacks decreased to 123
in August 2007--the lowest level since June 2006 when the average
number of attacks was 121 per day. The decrease in the average total
number of daily attacks in August 2007 was primarily due to a decrease
in the number of attacks against coalition forces. Further, the average
number of daily attacks against civilians decreased to 22 in August
compared to an average of approximately 30 per day over the preceding
14 months. Although the average number of daily attacks has declined in
recent months, data from previous years indicates the number of attacks
typically increases during the month of Ramadan. Ramadan began on
September 13, 2007.
Figure 2: Average Number of Daily Attacks against the Coalition, Iraqi
Security Forces, and Civilians (May 2003 through August 2007):
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO analysis of DIA-reported Multi-National Force-Iraq data,
August 2007.
Note: The Baghdad security plan was implemented in February 2007.
[End of figure]
The enemy-initiated attacks counted in DIA's reporting include car,
suicide, and other bombs; ambushes; murders, executions, and
assassinations; sniper fire; indirect fire (mortars or rockets); direct
fire (small arms or rocket-propelled grenades); surface-to-air fire
(such as man-portable air defense systems or MANPADS); and other
attacks on civilians. They do not include violent incidents that
coalition or Iraqi security forces initiate, such as cordon and
searches, raids, arrests, and caches cleared. DIA derives its attack
trend data from an MNF-I data base. According to DIA, the incidents
captured in military reporting do not account for all violence
throughout Iraq. For example, they may underreport incidents of Shi'a
militias fighting each other and attacks against Iraqi security forces
in southern Iraq and other areas with few or no coalition forces. DIA
officials stated, however, that they represent a reliable and
consistent source of information that can be used to identify trends in
enemy activity and the overall security situation.[Footnote 5]
In DOD's quarterly reports to Congress, the department has provided
highly aggregated attacks data to portray security trends.[Footnote 6]
For example, in its June 2007 report, DOD provides information on
average weekly attacks since April 2004 for inconsistent time periods
that range from 6 to 32 weeks and coincide with political events and
recent military operations in Iraq (see encl. 1). Further, the
administration's July and September 2007 Iraq benchmarks reports
discuss some types of attacks but do not provide specific information
on overall changes in monthly attack levels over time. We believe that
more detailed monthly attacks data would provide routine and up-to-date
information that would allow Congress to regularly track changes in
Iraq's security situation.
Recommendation for Executive Action:
Given the importance of congressional oversight and the American
public's interest in progress in stabilizing Iraq, we are recommending
that DOD should, on a monthly basis, make data on the enemy-initiated
attacks available to Congress, the American public, and GAO in a timely
manner.
Agency Comments:
The Department of Defense concurred with our recommendation stating
that it will provide the attack data specified in the report to GAO and
Congress (see encl. 2). On September 14, 2007, the department included
monthly attacks data for the period June 2004 through August 2007 in
its quarterly report to Congress, Measuring Stability and Security in
Iraq.
We distributed copies of this letter to appropriate congressional
committees. This letter will also be available at no charge on our Web
site at [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov]. If you or your staff have any
questions about this letter, please contact Joseph Christoff, director
of GAO's International Affairs and Trade team, at (202) 512-8979 or by
email at christoffj@gao.gov. Other key contributors to the report
include Judith McCloskey, David Bruno, Lynn Cothern, Mattias Fenton,
Dorian Herring, Melissa Pickworth, and Jena Sinkfield.
Sincerely yours,
Signed by:
David M. Walker:
Comptroller General of the United States:
cc: The Honorable Robert M. Gates:
List of Recipients:
The Honorable Carl Levin:
Chairman:
The Honorable John S. McCain:
Ranking Member:
Committee on Armed Services:
United States Senate:
The Honorable Joseph R. Biden, Jr.:
Chairman:
The Honorable Richard G. Lugar:
Ranking Member:
Committee on Foreign Relations:
United States Senate:
The Honorable Daniel Inouye:
Chairman:
The Honorable Ted Stevens:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on Defense:
Committee on Appropriations:
United States Senate:
The Honorable Patrick J. Leahy:
Chairman:
The Honorable Judd Gregg:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs:
Committee on Appropriations:
United States Senate:
The Honorable Ike Skelton:
Chairman:
The Honorable Duncan L. Hunter:
Ranking Member:
Committee on Armed Services:
House of Representatives:
The Honorable Tom Lantos:
Chairman:
The Honorable Ileana Ros-Lehtinen:
Ranking Member:
Committee on Foreign Affairs:
House of Representatives:
The Honorable Henry A. Waxman:
Chairman:
The Honorable Tom Davis: Ranking Member:
Committee on Oversight and Government Reform:
House of Representatives:
The Honorable John F. Tierney:
Chairman:
The Honorable Christopher Shays:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs:
Committee on Oversight and Government Reform:
House of Representatives:
The Honorable Joseph P. Murtha:
Chairman:
The Honorable C.W. Bill Young:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on Defense:
Committee on Appropriations:
House of Representatives:
The Honorable Nita M. Lowey:
Chairman:
The Honorable Frank R. Wolf:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs:
Committee on Appropriations:
House of Representatives:
[End of section]
Enclosure 1:
Attacks Data Presented in DOD's June 2007 Quarterly Report to Congress:
[See PDF for image]
Source: DOD, Measuring Stability in Iraq, June 2007, Report to Congress
in Accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations Act of
2007, Section 9010, Public Law 109-289 (Washington, D.C.: June 2007).
[End of figure]
[End of section]
Enclosure 2:
Comments from the Department of Defense:
Office Of The Assistant Secretary Of Defense:
2400 Defense:
Pentagon Washington, DC 20301-2400:
International Security Affairs:
August 17, 2007:
Mr. Joseph A. Christoff:
Director, International Affairs and Trade:
U.S. Government Accountability Office:
441 G Street N.W.:
Washington, DC 20548:
Dear Mr. Christoff:
This is the Department of Defense (DoD) response to the GAO draft
report, GAO- 07-1048R, "DOD Should Provide Congress and the American
Public with Monthly Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq," dated
July 20, 2007 (GAO Code 320498). The Department appreciates the
opportunity to comment on the draft report.
Recommendation 1: The GAO recommends that DoD should, on a monthly
basis, make data on the enemy-initiated attacks available to Congress,
the American public, and GAO.
DoD Response: Concur. The Department will continue to provide the
attack data specified in the draft report to Congress and to the GAO on
a monthly basis. The Department will continue to provide the monthly
data available to the American public in the quarterly report to
Congress, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, available at
[hyperlink, http://www.defenselink.mil.
If you have any questions concerning these comments, my point of
contact is Mr. Peter Velz at 703-571-2525.
Sincerely,
Signed by:
Mark T. Kimmitt:
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East:
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] For example, see GAO, Rebuilding Iraq: Resource, Security,
Governance, Essential Services, and Oversight Issues, GAO-04-92R
(Washington, D.C.: June 2004); GAO, Securing, Stabilizing, and
Stabilizing Iraq: Key Issues for Congressional Oversight, GAO-07-308SP
(Washington, D.C.: Jan. 2007); GAO, DOD Reports Should Link Economic,
Governance, and Security Indicators to Conditions for Stabilizing Iraq,
GAO-06-152C (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 2005).
[2] GAO, Securing, Stabilizing, and Rebuilding Iraq: Iraqi Government
Has Not Met Most Legislative, Security, and Economic Benchmarks, GAO-
07- 1195 (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 2006).
[3] Ramadan is the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. Over the past 4
years, the month of Ramadan began about October 27, 2003; October 16,
2004; October 5, 2005; and September 24, 2006. In 2007, Ramadan began
on September 13.
[4] The average number of daily attacks is calculated by dividing the
total number of enemy-initiated attacks against the coalition, Iraqi
security forces, and civilians for a specific month by the number of
days in the month.
[5] In June 2007, DIA notified GAO that its April 2007 attack data were
incorrect because it had excluded attacks from a new subordinate
command established on April 1, 2007. According to DIA, Multi-National
Division-Center did not properly forward its April attack data because
of inadequate reporting procedures; it has since corrected the problem.
This report contains the corrected April data.
[6] DOD, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, June 2007, Report to
Congress in Accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations
Act of 2007, Section 9010, Public Law 109-289 (Washington, D.C.: June
2007).
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