Joint Strike Fighter
Significant Challenges and Decisions Ahead Gao ID: GAO-10-478T March 24, 2010The F-35 Lightning II, also known as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), is the Department of Defense's (DOD) most costly and ambitious aircraft acquisition, seeking to simultaneously develop and field three aircraft variants for the Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps, and eight international partners. The JSF is critical for recapitalizing tactical air forces and will require a long-term commitment to very large annual funding outlays. The current estimated investment is $323 billion to develop and procure 2,457 aircraft. This statement draws substantively from GAO's March 19, 2010 report (GAO-10-382). That report discusses JSF costs and schedules, warfighter requirements, manufacturing performance, procurement rates, and development testing plans. This statement also provides an updated analysis of relative costs and benefits from a second (or alternate) engine program. In previous years, we recommended, among other things, that DOD rethink plans to cut test resources, improve reliability of cost estimates, and reduce the number of aircraft procured before testing demonstrates their performance capabilities. In our March 2010 report, we recommended that DOD (1) make a new, comprehensive assessment of the program's costs and schedule and (2) reassess warfighter requirements. DOD concurred with both recommendations.
The JSF program continues to struggle with increased costs and slowed progress--negative outcomes that were foreseeable as events have unfolded over several years. Total estimated acquisition costs have increased $46 billion and development extended 2 1/2 more years, compared to the approved program baseline approved in 2007. Aircraft unit costs will likely exceed the thresholds established by the statutory provision referred to as Nunn McCurdy and may require DOD to recertify the need for the JSF to Congress. The program is at risk for not delivering aircraft quantities and capabilities on time. Dates for achieving initial operational capabilities may have to be extended or some requirements deferred to future upgrades. DOD leadership is taking some positive steps that should reduce risk and provide more realistic cost and schedule estimates. Officials increased time and funding for system development, added four aircraft to the flight test program, and reduced near-term procurement quantities. If effectively implemented, these actions should improve future program outcomes. Currently, however, manufacturing JSF test aircraft continues to take more time, money, and effort than budgeted, hampering the development flight test program. Slowed by late aircraft deliveries and low productivity, the flight test program only completed 10 percent of the sorties planned during 2009. Although restructuring actions should help, there is still substantial overlap of development, test, and production activities while DOD continues to invest in large quantities of production aircraft before variant designs are proven and performance verified. Under the current plan, DOD may procure as many as 307 aircraft at a total estimated cost of $58.2 billion before development flight testing is completed. Our updated analysis on engine costs shows that, without competition, an estimated $62.5 billion will be needed over the remainder of the F135 primary engine effort to cover costs for completing system development, procuring 2,443 engines, production support, and sustainment. Additional investment of between $4.5 billion to $5.7 billion may be required should the department continue competition. Under certain assumptions, the additional costs of continuing the F136 alternate engine program could be recouped if competition were to generate approximately 10.1 to 12.6 percent savings over the life of the program. Air Force data on the first 4 years of competition for engines on the F-16 aircraft projected they would recoup at least that much. Actual savings will ultimately depend on factors such as the number of aircraft actually purchased, the ratio of engines awarded to each contractor, and when the competition begins. Competition may also provide non-quantifiable benefits with respect to better contractor responsiveness, technical innovation and improved operational readiness.
GAO-10-478T, Joint Strike Fighter: Significant Challenges and Decisions Ahead
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Testimony:
Before the Subcommittees on Air and Land Forces and Seapower and
Expeditionary Forces, Committee on Armed Services, House of
Representatives:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
For Release on Delivery:
Expected at 2:00 p.m. EDT:
Wednesday, March 24, 2010:
Joint Strike Fighter:
Significant Challenges and Decision Ahead:
Statement of Michael Sullivan, Director:
Acquisition and Sourcing Management:
GAO-10-478T:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-10-478T, a testimony before the Subcommittees on Air
and Land Forces and Seapower and Expeditionary Forces, Committee on
Armed Services, U.S. House of Representatives.
Why GAO Did This Study:
The F-35 Lightning II, also known as the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF),
is the Department of Defense‘s (DOD) most costly and ambitious
aircraft acquisition, seeking to simultaneously develop and field
three aircraft variants for the Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps, and
eight international partners. The JSF is critical for recapitalizing
tactical air forces and will require a long-term commitment to very
large annual funding outlays. The current estimated investment is $323
billion to develop and procure 2,457 aircraft.
This statement draws substantively from GAO‘s March 19, 2010 report
(GAO-10-382). That report discusses JSF costs and schedules,
warfighter requirements, manufacturing performance, procurement rates,
and development testing plans. This statement also provides an updated
analysis of relative costs and benefits from a second (or alternate)
engine program.
In previous years, we recommended, among other things, that DOD
rethink plans to cut test resources, improve reliability of cost
estimates, and reduce the number of aircraft procured before testing
demonstrates their performance capabilities. In our March 2010 report,
we recommended that DOD (1) make a new, comprehensive assessment of
the program‘s costs and schedule and (2) reassess warfighter
requirements. DOD concurred with both recommendations.
What GAO Found:
The JSF program continues to struggle with increased costs and slowed
progress”negative outcomes that were foreseeable as events have
unfolded over several years. Total estimated acquisition costs have
increased $46 billion and development extended 2 ½ more years,
compared to the approved program baseline approved in 2007. Aircraft
unit costs will likely exceed the thresholds established by the
statutory provision referred to as Nunn McCurdy and may require DOD to
recertify the need for the JSF to Congress. The program is at risk for
not delivering aircraft quantities and capabilities on time. Dates for
achieving initial operational capabilities may have to be extended or
some requirements deferred to future upgrades. DOD leadership is
taking some positive steps that should reduce risk and provide more
realistic cost and schedule estimates. Officials increased time and
funding for system development, added four aircraft to the flight test
program, and reduced near-term procurement quantities. If effectively
implemented, these actions should improve future program outcomes.
Currently, however, manufacturing JSF test aircraft continues to take
more time, money, and effort than budgeted, hampering the development
flight test program. Slowed by late aircraft deliveries and low
productivity, the flight test program only completed 10 percent of the
sorties planned during 2009. Although restructuring actions should
help, there is still substantial overlap of development, test, and
production activities while DOD continues to invest in large
quantities of production aircraft before variant designs are proven
and performance verified. Under the current plan, DOD may procure as
many as 307 aircraft at a total estimated cost of $58.2 billion before
development flight testing is completed.
Our updated analysis on engine costs shows that, without competition,
an estimated $62.5 billion will be needed over the remainder of the
F135 primary engine effort to cover costs for completing system
development, procuring 2,443 engines, production support, and
sustainment. Additional investment of between $4.5 billion to $5.7
billion may be required should the department continue competition.
Under certain assumptions, the additional costs of continuing the F136
alternate engine program could be recouped if competition were to
generate approximately 10.1 to 12.6 percent savings over the life of
the program. Air Force data on the first 4 years of competition for
engines on the F-16 aircraft projected they would recoup at least that
much. Actual savings will ultimately depend on factors such as the
number of aircraft actually purchased, the ratio of engines awarded to
each contractor, and when the competition begins. Competition may also
provide non-quantifiable benefits with respect to better contractor
responsiveness, technical innovation and improved operational
readiness.
View [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-478T] or key
components. For more information, contact Michael J. Sullivan at (202)
512-4841or sullivanm@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:
I am very pleased to be here today to discuss the F-35 Joint Strike
Fighter (JSF) program. The JSF is the Department of Defense's (DOD)
most costly and, arguably, its most complex and ambitious acquisition,
seeking to simultaneously develop, produce, and field three aircraft
variants for the Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps, and eight
international partners. The JSF is critical to our nation's plans for
recapitalizing the tactical air forces and will require a long-term
commitment to very large annual funding outlays. The total expected
U.S. investment is now more than $323 billion to develop and procure
2,457 aircraft.
GAO has issued annual reports on the JSF for the last 6 years. Our
most recent report was issued last week and discussed relatively poor
program cost and schedule outcomes and specific concerns about flight
testing, manufacturing, and technical challenges as the program moves
forward.[Footnote 1] A recurring theme in our work has been concern
about what we believe is undue concurrency of development, test, and
production activities and the heightened risks it poses to achieving
good cost, schedule, and performance outcomes. We have also raised
concerns about the department continuing to buy large quantities of
low rate production aircraft on cost reimbursement contracts far in
advance of flight and ground testing to verify the design and
operational performance. We are pleased that defense leadership has
lately agreed with our concerns and those of other defense offices and
task forces. The acquisition decision memorandum, dated February 24,
2010, directs numerous critical actions that we believe will, if
effectively implemented, significantly improve program outcomes and
provide more realistic projections of costs and schedule.
Today, I will discuss (1) JSF current cost and schedule estimates and
the significant challenges ahead as DOD substantially restructures the
acquisition program; and (2) our updated analysis of potential costs
and savings from pursuing a competitive engine program. This statement
draws primarily from our March 2010 report, updated to the extent
possible with new budget data and a recently revised procurement
profile directed by the Secretary of Defense. To conduct this work, we
tracked and compared current cost and schedule estimates with those of
prior years, identified changes, and determined causes. We obtained
program status reports, manufacturing data, and test planning
documents. We conducted our own analyses of the information. We
discussed results to date and future plans with DOD, JSF, and aircraft
and engine contractor officials. We obtained information on the recent
restructuring, including critical inputs from three independent
defense teams established to review program execution, manufacturing
capacity, and engine performance. For the engine cost analysis, we
employed our methodology, first reported in 2007, updated with current
cost and program data.[Footnote 2] A more detailed description of our
methodology and assumptions can be found in Appendix I. We conducted
this performance audit from May 2009 to March 2010 in accordance with
generally accepted government auditing standards. Those standards
require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient,
appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings
and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the
evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and
conclusions based on our audit objectives.
Significant Challenges Remain as DOD Restructures Program:
Continuing cost increases and schedule delays culminated in the
extensive restructuring of the JSF program recently announced.
Restructuring is not complete and further cost growth and schedule
extensions are likely. Manufacturing test aircraft continues to take
more time, money, and effort than budgeted, contributing to
substantial flight testing delays and raising questions about the
ability to ramp up production as rapidly and steeply as planned. There
is still substantial overlap of development, test, and production
activities while DOD continues to push ahead and invest in large
quantities of production aircraft before variant designs are proven
and system performance verified.
Cost Increases and Schedule Delays Increase Risk of Not Meeting
Warfighter Requirements on Time:
The JSF program continues to struggle with increased costs and slowed
progress--negative outcomes that were foreseeable as events have
unfolded over several years. Total estimated acquisition costs have
increased $46 billion and development extended 2½ years, compared to
the program baseline approved in 2007. DOD is now taking some positive
steps that, if effectively implemented, should improve future outcomes
and provide more realistic cost and schedule estimates. Officials
increased time and funding for system development, added four aircraft
to the flight test program, and reduced near-term procurement
quantities by 122 aircraft. However, there is still substantial risk
that the program will not deliver the expected number of aircraft and
required capabilities on time. Dates for achieving initial operational
capabilities may have to be extended or some requirements deferred to
future upgrades. Also, aircraft unit costs will likely exceed the
thresholds established by the statutory provision commonly referred to
as Nunn-McCurdy[Footnote 3] and require the department to certify the
need for the JSF to Congress. Program setbacks in costs, deliveries,
and performance directly impact modernization plans and retirement
schedules of the legacy aircraft the JSF is slated to replace.
Table 1 summarizes changes in program cost, quantities, and schedules
at key stages of acquisition. The 2004 replan estimates reflect a
quantity reduction and a major restructuring of the program after
integration efforts and design review identified significant weight
problems. The 2007 data is the current approved acquisition baseline
and the 2011 budget request reflects cost increases stemming from a
major reassessment of the program by a joint team comprised of the
Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), Air Force, and Navy
representatives.
Table 1: Changes in Reported JSF Program Costs, Quantities, and
Deliveries:
Expected quantities: Development quantities;
October 2001 (system development start): 14;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): 14;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): 15;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: 14.
Expected quantities: Procurement quantities (U.S. only);
October 2001 (system development start): 2,852;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): 2,443;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): 2,443;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: 2,443.
Total quantities;
October 2001 (system development start): 2,866;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): 2,457;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): 2,458;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: 2,457.
Cost estimates (then-year dollars in billions): Development;
October 2001 (system development start): $34.4 billion;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): $44.8 billion;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): $44.8 billion;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: $49.3 billion.
Cost estimates (then-year dollars in billions): Procurement;
October 2001 (system development start): $196.6 billion;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): $199.8 billion;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): $231.7 billion;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: $273.3 billion.
Total program Acquisition(see note);
October 2001 (system development start): $231.0 billion;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): $244.6 billion;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): $276.5 billion;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: $322.6 billion.
Unit cost estimates (then-year dollars in millions): Program
acquisition;
October 2001 (system development start): $81 million;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): $100 million;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): $113 million;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: $131 million.
Unit cost estimates (then-year dollars in millions): Average
procurement;
October 2001 (system development start): $69 million;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): $82 million;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): $95 million;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: $112 million.
Estimated delivery dates: First operational aircraft delivery;
October 2001 (system development start): 2008;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): 2009;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): 2010;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: 2010.
Estimated delivery dates: Initial operational capability;
October 2001 (system development start): 2010-2012;
December 2003 (2004 Replan): 2012-2013;
March 2007: (Approved Baseline): 2012-2015;
Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: 2012-2015.
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.
Note: Military construction costs, typically part of total program
acquisition costs, are not included in this table. Construction cost
estimates for the JSF program are incomplete and have been
inconsistently portrayed at various stages.
[End of table]
Table 2 shows the extension of major milestone dates for completing
key acquisition activities. The February 2010 restructure reflects the
direction ordered by the Secretary in an acquisition decision
memorandum issued on February 24 and revised on March 3. Completing
system development and approving full-rate production is now expected
in April 2016, about 2 ½ years later than planned in the acquisition
program baseline approved in 2007.
Table 2: Changes in Major Milestones:
Major milestones: Development testing complete;
Program of record December 2007: October 2012;
Program of record December 2008: October 2013;
Restructure February 2010: March 2015.
Major milestones: Initial operational test and evaluation complete;
Program of record December 2007: October 2013;
Program of record December 2008: October 2014;
Restructure February 2010: January 2016.
Major milestones: System development and demonstration phase complete;
Program of record December 2007: October 2013;
Program of record December 2008: October 2014;
Restructure February 2010: April 2016.
Major milestones: Full-rate production decision;
Program of record December 2007: October 2013;
Program of record December 2008: October 2014;
Restructure February 2010: April 2016.
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.
[End of table]
Manufacturing and Engineering Challenges Continue to Slow Aircraft
Deliveries and Put the Production Schedule at Risk:
Manufacturing JSF test aircraft continues to take more time, money,
and effort than budgeted. By December 2009, only 4 of 13 test aircraft
had been delivered and total labor hours to build the aircraft had
increased more than 50 percent above earlier estimates. Late
deliveries hamper the development flight test program and affect work
on production aircraft, even as plans proceed to significantly ramp up
annual procurement rates. Some improvement is noted, but continuing
manufacturing inefficiencies, parts problems, and engineering
technical changes indicate that design and production processes may
lack the maturity needed to efficiently produce aircraft at planned
rates. An independent manufacturing review team determined that the
planned production ramp rate was unachievable absent significant
improvements. While the restructuring has reduced near-term
procurement, annual aircraft quantities are still substantial. In
addition, the program is procuring a substantial number of low rate
initial production (LRIP) aircraft using cost-reimbursement contracts,
a contract type that places most of the cost risk on the government.
Continued use of cost reimbursement contracts beyond initial LRIP
quantities indicate that uncertainties in contract performance exist
that do not permit costs to be estimated with sufficient accuracy for
the contractor to assume the risk under a fixed price contract. Figure
1 compares labor hour estimates for test aircraft in 2007 and the
revised manufacturing plan in 2009.
Figure 1: JSF Labor Hours for Manufacturing Test Aircraft:
[Refer to PDF for image: multiple line graph]
Aircraft: BF-1;
2007 budget, labor hours: 342,647;
2009 estimated actual hours: 341,296.
Aircraft: BF-2;
2007 budget, labor hours: 233,319;
2009 estimated actual hours: 331,238.
Aircraft: BF-3;
2007 budget, labor hours: 179,892;
2009 estimated actual hours: 292,318.
Aircraft: BF-4;
2007 budget, labor hours: 155,420;
2009 estimated actual hours: 296,165.
Aircraft: AF-1;
2007 budget, labor hours: 187,781;
2009 estimated actual hours: 288,772.
Aircraft: AF-2;
2007 budget, labor hours: 145,607;
2009 estimated actual hours: 259,655.
Aircraft: AF-3;
2007 budget, labor hours: 130,955;
2009 estimated actual hours: 264,973.
Aircraft: CF-1;
2007 budget, labor hours: 239,351;
2009 estimated actual hours: 274,391.
Aircraft: CF-2;
2007 budget, labor hours: 125,602;
2009 estimated actual hours: 228,672.
Aircraft: CF-3v
2007 budget, labor hours: 118,153;
2009 estimated actual hours: 200,933.
Aircraft: BF-5;
2007 budget, labor hours: 102,505;
2009 estimated actual hours: 203,701.
Aircraft: AF-4;
2007 budget, labor hours: 91,218;
2009 estimated actual hours: 178,723.
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.
BF= Short take-off and vertical landing aircraft for the Marine Corps.
AF= Conventional take-off and landing aircraft for the Air Force.
CF= Carrier variant for the Navy.
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.
[End of figure]
Little Progress in Development Testing While Program Continues to Face
Technical Challenges:
Although DOD's restructuring actions should help, there is still
substantial overlap of development, test, and production activities
while DOD continues to push ahead and invest in large quantities of
production aircraft before variant designs are proven and system
performance verified. Given the extended development time and reduced
near-term procurement, DOD still intends to procure up to 307 aircraft
at an estimated cost of $58.2 billion before completing development
flight testing by the beginning of fiscal year 2015 (see figure 2). At
the same time, progress on flight testing is behind schedule--slowed
by late aircraft deliveries and low productivity, the flight test
program completed only 10 percent of the sorties planned during 2009.
Other technical challenges include (1) relying on an extensive but
largely unproven and unaccredited network of ground test laboratories
and simulation models to evaluate system performance; (2) developing
and integrating very large and complex software requirements; and (3)
maturing several critical technologies essential to meet operational
performance and logistical support requirements. Collectively, testing
and technical challenges will likely add more costs and time to
development, slowing delivery of capabilities to warfighters and
hampering start up of pilot and maintainer training and initial
operational testing.
Figure 2: JSF Procurement Investments and Progress of Flight Testing:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustrated table]
Cumulative procurement:
2007: $0.9 billion;
2008: $3.6 billion;
2009: $7.1 billion;
2010: $14.4 billion;
2011: $23.6 billion;
2012: $33.2 billion;
2013: $45.2 billion;
2014: $58.2 billion;
2015: $72.4 billion.
Cumulative aircraft procured:
2007: 2;
2008: 14;
2009: 28;
2010: 58;
2011: 101;
2012: 146;
2013: 217;
2014: 307;
2015: 420.
Development flight testing schedule: 2007 through 2015; ongoing.
Source: GAO analysis of DOD data.
Note: U.S. investments only.
[End of table]
Updated Analysis Shows that Competition Savings Still Has Potential to
Outweigh Costs Depending on Acquisition Approach:
The JSF program began with an acquisition strategy that called for a
competitive engine development effort. In the fiscal year 2007 budget
submission, DOD stopped requesting funding for the alternate engine
(F136). At that time, DOD determined that the risks of a single point
failure in a sole source environment were very low and did not justify
the extra costs to maintain a second source. Each year since then,
Congress has subsequently recommended funding for alternate engine
development. We have previously testified on our assessment that,
based on past defense competitions (including a fighter engine
competition started in the 1980s between these same manufacturers) and
making certain assumptions about relative quantities purchased from
each, competition could reasonably be expected to yield enough savings
across the JSF life cycle to offset the remaining investments required
to sustain a second source.[Footnote 4] Prior studies also indicate a
number of nonfinancial benefits from competition, including better
performance, increased reliability, and improved contractor
responsiveness.
As noted in our prior testimonies, the acquisition strategy for the
JSF engine must weigh expected costs against potential rewards”both
quantifiable and non quantifiable. As a result, we have updated our
prior studies conducted in 2007, and later updated in 2008, to assess
whether changes in the JSF program have impacted the costs and
benefits of the sole-source and competitive scenarios for acquisition
and sustainment of the JSF engine. We updated our analysis to include
(1) new estimates for Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation
(RDT&E) and additional sunk costs, (2) a slower production ramp as a
result of the recent program restructure, (3) increased engine unit
recurring costs, and (4) updated production support costs. Based on
schedule delays with the program, we moved the starting point of the
procurement competition to fiscal year 2015, a 3-year slip from our
past analysis. This adjustment aligns with the completion of the JSF
development flight test program and would start the competition with
the last low-rate initial production aircraft buy. We were not
provided information that allowed us to update operations and support
costs.
Our updated analysis, based largely on data provided by the JSF
program office, found that, without competition, an estimated $62.5
billion will be needed over the remainder of the F135 primary
(current) engine to cover costs for completing system development,
procuring 2,443 engines, production support, and sustainment. An
additional investment of between $4.5 billion to $5.7 billion
(depending on the competitive scenario) may be required should the
department continue competition. Depending on assumptions, the
additional costs of the alternate engine investment could be recouped
if competition were to generate approximately 10.1 to 12.6 percent
savings over the life of the program. Air Force data on the first 4
years of competition for engines on the F-16 aircraft projected they
would recoup at least that much. Actual savings will ultimately depend
on factors such as the number of aircraft actually purchased, the
ratio of engines awarded to each contractor, and when the competition
begins. Competition may also provide non-quantifiable benefits with
respect to better contractor responsiveness, technical innovation and
improved operational readiness. Recent engine cost concerns and past
test failures are other factors that should be considered in deciding
whether to continue the engine competition.
Costs of Sole Source Approach:
Our updated analysis estimates the remaining costs for the Pratt &
Whitney F135 engine is estimated to be $62.5 billion over the life of
the program. This includes cost estimates for the completion of system
development, procurement of engines, production support, and
sustainment. Table 3 shows the costs remaining to acquire and support
the Pratt & Whitney F135 engine on a sole-source basis in our updated
analysis.
Table 3: Costs to Complete Pratt & Whitney F135 Engine Program (Fiscal
year 2002 dollars in billions):
Cost element: System development and demonstration costs;
Cost: $0.5 billion.
Cost element: Total engine recurring flyaway costs;
Cost: $24.7 billion.
Cost element: Production support costs (including initial spares,
training, manpower, and depot standup);
Cost: $5.7 billion.
Cost element: Sustainment costs of fielded aircraft;
Cost: $31.6 billion.
Cost element: Total;
Cost: $62.5 billion.
Source: JSF program office or other DOD data; GAO analysis.
Note: Based on 2,443 installed engines and spares.
[End of table]
In addition to development of the F135 engine design, Pratt & Whitney
also has responsibility for the common components that will be
designed and developed to go on all JSF aircraft, regardless of which
contractor provides the engine core. This responsibility supports the
JSF program level requirement that the engine be interchangeable--
either engine can be used in any aircraft variant. In the event that
Pratt &Whitney is made the sole-source engine provider, future
configuration changes to the aircraft and common components could be
optimized for the F135 engine.
Additional Costs of Competition:
Our updated analysis estimated the additional costs under two
competitive scenarios; one in which contractors are each awarded 50
percent of the total engine purchases (50/50 split) and one in which
there is an annual 70/30 percent award split of total engine purchases
to either contractor, beginning in fiscal year 2015. Without
consideration of potential savings, the additional costs of
competition total about $5.7 billion under the first scenario and
about $4.5 billion under the second scenario. Table 4 shows the
additional cost associated with competition under these two scenarios.
Table 4: Additional Costs for Competition in JSF Engine Program
(Fiscal year 2002 dollars in billions):
Additional costs: System development and demonstration costs;
50/50 Aircraft award split: $1.3 billion;
70/30 Aircraft award split: $1.3 billion.
Additional costs: Total engine recurring flyaway costs;
50/50 Aircraft award split: $4.3 billion;
70/30 Aircraft award split: $3.1 billion.
Additional costs: Production support costs (including initial spares,
training, manpower, and depot standup);
50/50 Aircraft award split: $0.1 billion;
70/30 Aircraft award split: $0.1 billion.
Additional costs: Sustainment costs of fielded aircraft[A];
50/50 Aircraft award split: N/A;
70/30 Aircraft award split: N/A.
Additional costs: Total;
50/50 Aircraft award split: $5.7 billion;
70/30 Aircraft award split: $4.5 billion.
Source: JSF program office or other DOD data; GAO analysis.
Notes: Based on 2,443 installed engines and spares.
[A] No additional sustainment costs were considered because the number
of aircraft and cost per flight hour would be the same under either
scenario.
[End of table]
The disparity in costs between the two competitive scenarios reflects
the loss of learning resulting from lower production volume that is
accounted for in the projected recurring flyaway costs used to
construct each estimate. The other costs include approximately $1.3
billion for remaining F136 development and $140 million in additional
standup costs, which would be the same under either competitive
scenario.
Level of Savings Needed to Recoup Additional Costs Varies Based on
Assumptions:
Competition may incentivize the contractors to achieve more aggressive
production learning curves, produce more reliable engines that are
less costly to maintain, and invest additional corporate money in
technological improvements to remain competitive. However, it is
important to consider that many of the additional investments
associated with competition are often made earlier in the program's
life cycle, while much of the expected savings do not accrue for
decades. As such, we include a net present value calculation (time
value of money) in the analysis that, once applied, provides for a
better estimate of program rate of return. Our analysis indicates that
recoupment of those initial investment costs would occur at somewhere
between 10.1 and 12.6 percent, depending on the number of engines
awarded to each contractor. A competitive scenario, where one
contractor receives 70 percent of the annual procurement and the other
receives 30 percent, reaches the breakeven point at 10.1 percent
savings. A competitive scenario where both contractors receive 50
percent of the procurement reaches this point at 12.6 percent savings.
The government's ability to recoup the additional investments required
to support competition depends largely on (1) the number of aircraft
procured,[Footnote 5] (2) the ratio that each contractor wins out of
that total, and (3) the savings rate that competitive pressures drive.
Another key variable is when the competition actually begins. In our
analysis described above, we assume competition begins with the fiscal
year 2015 buy which would be after system development flight test
program is currently scheduled to be completed and would be the last
low rate initial production order. However, we ran an alternative
scenario where competition did not begin until 2017, or 2 years later.
Such a delay would increase the level of savings needed to recoup the
additional investments. This was primarily due to the fact that
savings from the competition began later in the life cycle and fewer
engines from the total 2,443 procurement would be available for
competition. Recoupment under the assumption that competition begins
in 2017 would occur at 11.3 to 14.1 percent savings depending on the
scenario whether competitive buys was a 70/30 or 50/50 split between
contractors, this is compared to 10.1 to 12.6 percent if the
competition begins in 2015.
Prior experience indicates that it is reasonable that competition of
the JSF engine program could yield savings of at least that much.
While we did not do an in-depth analysis of the competition, the
"Great Engine War", may provide a good example of the potential
savings achievable. The competition was between Pratt & Whitney and
General Electric to supply military engines for the F-16 and other
fighter aircraft programs. At that time, all engines for the F-14 and
F-15 aircraft were being produced on a sole-source basis by Pratt &
Whitney, which was criticized for increased procurement and
maintenance costs, along with a general lack of responsiveness to
government concerns about those programs. Beginning in 1983, the Air
Force initiated a competition that resulted in significant cost
savings in the program. For example, in the first 4 years of the
competition, when comparing actual costs to the program's baseline
estimate, results included:
* Nearly 30 percent cumulative savings for acquisition costs,
* Roughly 16 percent cumulative savings for operations and support
costs, and:
* Total savings of about 21 percent in overall life cycle costs.
It is difficult to estimate the costs that would have been incurred if
there never were a competition. However, prior to the competition,
there was an upward trend in the expected unit costs of the F-16
primary engine. When the alternate engine was introduced as a
competitor, the upward trend stopped.
Multiple Studies and Analyses Show Additional Benefits from
Competition:
Competition for the JSF engines may provide benefits that do not
result in immediate financial savings, but could result in reduced
costs or other positive outcomes over time. Our prior work, along with
studies by DOD and others, indicated there are a number of
nonfinancial benefits that may result from competition, including
better performance, increased reliability, and improved contractor
responsiveness. DOD and others have performed studies and have
widespread concurrence as to these other benefits, including better
engine performance, increased reliability, and improved contractor
responsiveness. In fact, in 1998 and 2002, DOD program management
advisory groups assessed the JSF alternate engine program and found
the potential for significant benefits in these and other areas. While
the benefits highlighted may be more difficult to quantify, they were
strongly considered in an earlier recommendation to continue the
alternate engine program. These studies concluded that the program
would:
* Maintain the industrial base for fighter engine technology,
* Enhance readiness,
* Instill contractor incentives for better performance,
* Ensure an operational alternative if the current engine developed
problems, and:
* Enhance international participation.
In the OSD Cost Analysis Improvement Group's (now Cost Assessment and
Program Evaluation) 2007 Joint Strike Fighter Alternate Engine
Acquisition and Independent Cost Analyses Report, it also concluded
that there are nonfinancial benefits to competition.
Another potential benefit of having an alternate engine program cited
by the program management advisory group studies is the hedge against
a catastrophic risk that a single point, systemic failure in the
engine design could substantially affect the fighter aircraft fleet.
Though current data indicate that it is unlikely that engine problems
would lead to fleet wide groundings in modern aircraft, having two
engine sources for the single-engine JSF further reduces this risk as
it is less likely that such a problem would occur to both engine types
at the same time. Because the JSF is expected to be the primary
fighter aircraft in the U.S. inventory, and Pratt & Whitney will also
be the sole-source provider of F119 engines for the F-22A aircraft,
DOD is faced with the potential scenario where most of the fleet could
be dependent on similar engine cores, produced by the same contractor
in a sole-source environment.
JSF Engine Costs and Flight Test Progress Have Not Met Expectations:
Both the F135 and F136 have experienced cost growth and delays. The
F135 primary engine development effort--a separate contract from the
airframe development effort--is now estimated to cost about $7.3
billion, about a 50 percent increase over the original contract award.
This includes an $800 million contract cost overrun in 2008. Engine
development cost increases primarily resulted from higher costs for
labor and materials, supplier problems, and the rework needed to
correct deficiencies with an engine blade during redesign. Engine
redesigns and test problems caused slips in engine deliveries,
according to program officials. Officials note that these late engine
deliveries have not yet critically affected the delivery of test
aircraft because airframe production lagged even further behind.
However, the prime contractor has been forced to perform out-of-
station engine installations and other workarounds as a result of
engine issues. As of January 2010, 17 of 18 F135 development flight
test engines have been delivered, seven of which have flown. However,
release date for short take-off and vertical landing variant has
slipped about 21 months from 2007 plans until third quarter 2010.
Engine procurement unit costs are higher than earlier budget
estimates. For example, the most recent negotiated unit cost for the
conventional take-off and landing variant is now $17.7 million--42
percent higher than the original budget estimate of $12.5 million.
Similarly, the unit cost for the short take-off and vertical landing
(STOVL) engine (including lift fan and related parts) rose from $27.6
million, to $33.4 million, a 21 percent increase. JSF program
officials cite several reasons for the higher than budgeted unit
costs, including configuration changes and quantity reductions. Based
on recent data provided by the program office, the average unit costs
projected through the end of procurement has increased by 45 to 55
percent since 2006, depending on the variant.
As planned, the F136 second engine development is about 3 years behind
F135 engine development. While the time lag and funding instability
make precise assessments more difficult, the second engine contractor
is also facing cost and schedule challenges. Through fiscal year 2010,
the government has invested about $2.9 billion in developing the
second engine and DOD cost analysts estimate that about $1.6 billion
more would be needed to complete F136 development in 2016. F136
contractor officials told us that funding stability, engine
affordability, and testing issues are key concerns for the program to
go forward. According to the F136 contractor, it believes system
development could be completed by 2014 and requires less than $1
billion, not including other government costs. While the F136 engine
has not yet been flown, it has experienced some delays. For example,
its initial release for flight testing for the short take-off and
vertical landing variant has slipped by about 21 months (about same
length as the F135 delay) to late 2011.
Concluding Remarks:
The JSF is DOD's largest and most complex acquisition program and the
linchpin of the United States and its allies' long-term plans to
modernize tactical air forces. It will require exceptional levels of
funding for a sustained period through 2035, competing against other
defense and nondefense priorities for the federal discretionary
dollar. The Department has recently taken some positive steps that, if
effectively implemented, should improve outcomes and provide more
realistic, executable program. However, the program will still be
challenged to meet cost and schedule targets. To date, the Department
does not have a full, comprehensive cost estimate for completing the
program. Credible costs and schedules estimates are critical because
they allow DOD management to make sound trade-off decisions against
competing demands and allow Congress to perform oversight and hold DOD
accountable. Because the JSF is expected to eventually make up most of
the tactical aircraft fleet, the services should have a high degree of
confidence in their ability to meet their initial operational
capability requirements and to acquire JSFs in quantity so that DOD
can plan its overall tactical aircraft force structure strategy.
However, the Department has not yet defined reasonable expectations
for achieving initial operational capabilities for each of the
services given the recent restructuring. While the Department has
lowered cost risk by reducing near term procurement quantities, there
is still substantial overlap of development, test, and production
activities now stretching into 2016. Constant program changes and
turbulence have made it difficult to accurately and confidently
measure program progress in maturing the aircraft system. Tying annual
investments more directly to demonstrated progress in developing,
testing, and manufacturing aircraft may be a prudent fiscal measure
for ensuring government funds are invested wisely.
In previous years, we recommended, among others, that DOD rethink
plans to cut test resources, improve cost estimates, and reduce the
number of aircraft procured before testing demonstrates their
performance capabilities. In light of these circumstances, we
recommended in our March 2010 JSF report that DOD (1) make a new,
comprehensive and independent assessment of the costs and schedule to
complete the program, including military construction, JSF-related
expenses in other budgets, and life cycle costs; and (2) reassess
warfighter requirements and, if necessary, defer some capabilities to
future increments. GAO may also have a matter for congressional
consideration to address some of the issues raised in this testimony.
Decisions made on whether to continue the alternate engine program
will likely have long term implications for the JSF program,
industrial base, and fleet readiness. Expected costs must be weighed
against potential benefits, both quantifiable and unquantifiable. Last
year, Congress enacted legislation to help improve weapons acquisition
outcomes. The legislation, referred to as the Weapon Systems
Acquisition Reform Act of 2009, included a provision requiring DOD to
ensure that the acquisition strategy for each major defense
acquisition program includes measures to ensure competition, or the
option of competition, throughout the life of the program. The long-
term impact on the industrial base is likely to be high given the size
of the JSF program, international participation, and the expected
supplier base. Depending on the assumptions made, a competitive
environment could yield enough financial savings over the life of the
program to offset the immediate cost of investing in competition.
Specifically, key assumptions include the number of aircraft
purchased, the ratio of engines each contractor wins, and savings
competitive pressures drive. The timing of when a competition occurs
will also have a direct bearing on the amount of savings that is
needed to recoup the additional costs of competition. Competition
could also provide many intangible benefits that do not result in
immediate financial savings but could result in reduced costs or other
positive outcomes over time. It is important that DOD and Congress
reach an agreement on the best path forward.
Mr. Chairman, this completes my prepared statement. I would be pleased
to respond to any questions you or other Members of the Committee may
have.
For further information on this statement, please contact Michael
Sullivan at (202) 512-4841 or sullivanm@gao.gov. Contact points for
our Office of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found
on the last page of this statement. Individuals making key
contributions to this statement are Bruce Fairbairn, Matt Lea, Kris
Keener, Ridge Bowman, Charlie Shivers, Charles Perdue, and Greg
Campbell.
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] GAO, Joint Strike Fighter: Additional Costs and Delays Risk Not
Meeting Warfighter Requirements on Time, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-382] (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 19,
2010).
[2] For a detailed discussion on our analytical approach and
methodology,
see our original testimony GAO, Defense Acquisitions: Analysis of Costs
for the Joint Strike Fighter Engine Program, GAO-07-656T (Washington,
D.C.: March 22, 2007).
[3] 10 U.S.C. § 2433 establishes the requirement for DOD to prepare
unit cost reports on major defense acquisition programs or designated
major defense subprograms. If a program exceeds cost growth thresholds
specified in the law, this is known as a Nunn-McCurdy breach. DOD is
required to report breaches to Congress and, in certain circumstances,
DOD must reassess the program and submit a certification to Congress
in order to continue the program, in accordance with 10 U.S.C. § 2433a.
[4] GAO, Joint Strike Fighter: Strong Risk Management Essential as
Program Enters Most Challenging Phase, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-711T] (Washington, D.C.: May, 20,
2009) is our most recent testimony on engine issues.
[5] In conducting our cost analysis of the alternate engine program,
we presented the cost of only 2,443 U.S. aircraft currently expected
for production.
[End of section]
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