Environmental Satellites
Strategy Needed to Sustain Critical Climate and Space Weather Measurements Gao ID: GAO-10-456 April 27, 2010Environmental satellites provide data on the earth and its space environment that are used for forecasting the weather, measuring variations in climate over time, and predicting space weather. In planning for the next generation of these satellites, federal agencies originally sought to fulfill weather, climate, and space weather requirements. However, in 2006, federal agencies restructured two key satellite acquisitions, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R). This involved removing key climate and space weather instruments. GAO was asked to (1) assess plans for restoring the capabilities that were removed from the two key satellite acquisitions, (2) evaluate federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided climate data, and (3) evaluate federal efforts to establish a strategy for the longterm provision of satellite-provided space weather data. To do so, GAO analyzed agency plans and reports.
After key climate and space weather instruments were removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R programs in 2006, federal agencies decided to restore selected capabilities in the near term. However, neither the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) nor the Department of Defense (DOD) has established plans to restore the full set of NPOESS capabilities over the life of the program. Further, NOAA has not made any plans to restore the advanced climate capabilities of the instrument that was removed from GOES-R. Expected gaps in coverage for the instruments that were removed range from 1 to 11 years, and begin as soon as 2015. Until these capabilities are in place, the agencies will not be able to provide key environmental data that are important for sustaining climate and space weather measurements. For over a decade, federal agencies and the climate community have clamored for a national interagency strategy to coordinate agency priorities, budgets, and schedules for environmental satellite observations over the long-term-- and the governance structure to implement that strategy. In mid-2009, a White House-sponsored interagency working group drafted a report that identifies and prioritizes near-term opportunities for environmental observations; however, the plan has not been approved by key entities within the Executive Office of the President and there is no schedule for finalizing it. In addition, the report does not address costs, schedules, or the long-term provision of satellite data, and there is no process or time frame for implementing it. Without a strategy for continuing environmental measurements over the coming decades and a means for implementing it, agencies will continue to independently pursue their immediate priorities on an ad hoc basis, the economic benefits of a coordinated approach to investments in earth observation may be lost, and our nation's ability to understand climate change may be limited. While federal agencies have taken steps to plan for continued space weather observations in the near-term, they lack a strategy for the long-term provision of space weather data. NOAA and DOD plan to replace aging satellites, and an interagency space weather program drafted two reports on how to mitigate the loss of key satellites and instruments. These reports were submitted to the Executive Office of the President's Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in the fall of 2009. However, OSTP has no schedule for approving or releasing the reports. Until OSTP approves and releases the reports, it will not be clear whether the reports provide a strategy to ensure the long-term provision of space weather data--or whether the current efforts are simply attempts to ensure short-term data continuity. Without a comprehensive longterm strategy for the provision of space weather data, agencies may make ad hoc decisions to ensure continuity in the near term and risk making inefficient investment decisions.
RecommendationsOur recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.
Director: David A. Powner Team: Government Accountability Office: Information Technology Phone: No phone on recordGAO-10-456, Environmental Satellites: Strategy Needed to Sustain Critical Climate and Space Weather Measurements
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Report to Congressional Committees:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
April 2010:
Environmental Satellites:
Strategy Needed to Sustain Critical Climate and Space Weather
Measurements:
GAO-10-456:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-10-456, a report to congressional committees.
Why GAO Did This Study:
Environmental satellites provide data on the earth and its space
environment that are used for forecasting the weather, measuring
variations in climate over time, and predicting space weather. In
planning for the next generation of these satellites, federal agencies
originally sought to fulfill weather, climate, and space weather
requirements. However, in 2006, federal agencies restructured two key
satellite acquisitions, the National Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and the Geostationary
Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R). This involved
removing key climate and space weather instruments.
GAO was asked to (1) assess plans for restoring the capabilities that
were removed from the two key satellite acquisitions, (2) evaluate
federal efforts to establish a strategy for the long-term provision of
satellite-provided climate data, and (3) evaluate federal efforts to
establish a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided
space weather data. To do so, GAO analyzed agency plans and reports.
What GAO Found:
After key climate and space weather instruments were removed from the
NPOESS and GOES-R programs in 2006, federal agencies decided to
restore selected capabilities in the near term. However, neither the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) nor the
Department of Defense (DOD) has established plans to restore the full
set of NPOESS capabilities over the life of the program. Further, NOAA
has not made any plans to restore the advanced climate capabilities of
the instrument that was removed from GOES-R. Expected gaps in coverage
for the instruments that were removed range from 1 to 11 years, and
begin as soon as 2015. Until these capabilities are in place, the
agencies will not be able to provide key environmental data that are
important for sustaining climate and space weather measurements.
For over a decade, federal agencies and the climate community have
clamored for a national interagency strategy to coordinate agency
priorities, budgets, and schedules for environmental satellite
observations over the long-term”and the governance structure to
implement that strategy. In mid-2009, a White House-sponsored
interagency working group drafted a report that identifies and
prioritizes near-term opportunities for environmental observations;
however, the plan has not been approved by key entities within the
Executive Office of the President and there is no schedule for
finalizing it. In addition, the report does not address costs,
schedules, or the long-term provision of satellite data, and there is
no process or time frame for implementing it. Without a strategy for
continuing environmental measurements over the coming decades and a
means for implementing it, agencies will continue to independently
pursue their immediate priorities on an ad hoc basis, the economic
benefits of a coordinated approach to investments in earth observation
may be lost, and our nation‘s ability to understand climate change may
be limited.
While federal agencies have taken steps to plan for continued space
weather observations in the near-term, they lack a strategy for the
long-term provision of space weather data. NOAA and DOD plan to
replace aging satellites, and an interagency space weather program
drafted two reports on how to mitigate the loss of key satellites and
instruments. These reports were submitted to the Executive Office of
the President‘s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in the
fall of 2009. However, OSTP has no schedule for approving or releasing
the reports. Until OSTP approves and releases the reports, it will not
be clear whether the reports provide a strategy to ensure the long-
term provision of space weather data”or whether the current efforts
are simply attempts to ensure short-term data continuity. Without a
comprehensive long-term strategy for the provision of space weather
data, agencies may make ad hoc decisions to ensure continuity in the
near term and risk making inefficient investment decisions.
What GAO Recommends:
GAO is making recommendations to the President‘s Assistant for Science
and Technology to establish and implement interagency strategies for
the long-term provision of environmental observations. The Assistant‘s
office neither agreed nor disagreed with the recommendations, but
noted its plan to develop a strategy for earth observations.
View [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-456] or key
components. For more information, contact David A. Powner at (202) 512-
9286 or pownerd@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Contents:
Letter:
Background:
Federal Agencies Have Not Established Plans to Restore All
Capabilities Removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R Programs:
Federal Efforts to Ensure the Long-term Provision of Satellite Climate
Data Are Insufficient:
Federal Agencies Lack a Strategy for the Long-term Provision of Space
Weather Data:
Conclusions:
Recommendations for Executive Action:
Agency Comments and Our Evaluation:
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology:
Appendix II: Key Federal Organizations with Climate and Space Weather
Responsibilities:
Appendix III: Federal Organizations That Participate in Interagency
Coordination Groups:
Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Commerce:
Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration:
Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
Tables:
Table 1: Examples of Satellite-Provided Climate Products and Their
Uses:
Table 2: Examples of Satellite-Provided Space Weather Products and
Their Uses:
Table 3: Organizations within the Executive Office of the President
That Provide Oversight of Environmental Observations:
Table 4: Instruments and Products Removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R
Programs:
Table 5: Key Federal Organizations' Roles for Climate Observation:
Table 6: Key Federal Organizations' Roles for Space Weather
Observation:
Table 7: Federal Organizations That Participate in Interagency
Coordination Groups:
Figures:
Figure 1: Characteristics of Polar and Geostationary Satellites:
Figure 2: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites:
Figure 3: Approximate GOES Geographic Coverage:
Figure 4: Stages of Satellite Data Processing:
Figure 5: Examples of Weather Products:
Figure 6: Example of a Climate Data Record:
Figure 7: Key Assets and Risks in the Earth's Space Environment:
Figure 8: Current Plans and Potential Gaps in Coverage for Instruments
Removed from NPOESS and GOES-R:
Abbreviations:
DOD: Department of Defense:
DMSP: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program:
GOES-R: Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite System-R
series:
GPS: Global Positioning System:
JPSS: Joint Polar Satellite System:
MetOp: Meteorological Operational (satellite):
NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration:
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
NPOESS: National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
System:
NPP: NPOESS Preparatory Project:
OMB: Office of Management and Budget:
OSTP: Office of Science and Technology Policy:
POES: Polar Operational Environmental Satellites:
USGEO: U.S. Group on Earth Observations:
USGCRP: U.S. Global Change Research Program:
[End of section]
United States Government Accountability Office:
Washington, DC 20548:
April 27, 2010:
The Honorable Brian Baird:
Chairman:
The Honorable Bob Inglis:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on Energy and Environment:
Committee on Science and Technology:
House of Representatives:
The Honorable Brad Miller:
Chairman:
The Honorable Paul Broun, Jr.
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight:
Committee on Science and Technology:
House of Representatives:
Environment-observing satellites provide data that are used for
weather forecasting, as well as climate monitoring, prediction, and
research. Current satellites provide measurements of the earth's
atmosphere, oceans, land, and space environment. For example,
satellites provide data on precipitation, cloud cover, sea surface
temperatures, land vegetation, snow cover, and solar flares. These
data are used to provide warnings of severe storms and hurricanes, and
to monitor and predict seasonal, annual, and decade-long changes in
the earth's temperature and ozone coverage. They are also used to
observe and forecast space weather, which is when solar activities
such as solar flares and solar winds are expected to affect space and
earth assets (including satellites, airplanes flying at high
altitudes, and the electric power grid).
In planning for the next generation of environmental satellites to
help observe and predict weather and climate, federal agencies
originally established plans for polar and geostationary satellites
that would meet a wide variety of missions. Specifically, the National
Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)
program--managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA), and the Department of Defense (DOD)--was
originally envisioned to fulfill requirements for global observations
of weather, space weather, and climate.[Footnote 1] In addition,
NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series
(GOES-R) program was originally envisioned to fulfill requirements for
continuous observations of weather, climate, and space weather for the
continental United States and adjacent oceans. However, both of these
programs were restructured due to growing costs. These restructuring
efforts involved removing selected climate and space weather
instruments and reducing the capabilities of other instruments. As a
result, the United States' ability to sustain important climate and
space weather measurements over the long term was put at risk.
This report responds to your request that we (1) assess plans for
restoring the capabilities that were removed from the NPOESS and GOES-
R satellites, (2) evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to
establish a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided
climate data, and (3) evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to
establish a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided
space weather data. To assess plans for restoring the capabilities
that were removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R programs, we compared the
original program plans for sensors and products with current plans for
these and other satellite programs and identified gaps over time. To
evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy for
the long-term provision of satellite-provided climate data, we
compared plans for the provision of climate data with leading
practices and past recommendations for the development of a long-term
strategy, and we identified the shortfalls of and challenges to those
plans. To evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a
strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided space
weather data, we compared plans for the provision of space weather
data with leading practices for the development of a long-term
strategy, and we identified the shortfalls of and challenges to those
plans. We also visited key weather, space weather, and climate
facilities to obtain information related to federal strategic planning
efforts for space-based observations and interviewed relevant agency
officials. In addition, this report builds on work we have done on
environmental satellites and climate change over the last several
years.[Footnote 2]
We conducted this performance audit from June 2009 to April 2010, in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain
sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our
findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe
that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our
findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. Additional
details on our objectives, scope, and methodology are provided in
appendix I.
Background:
Since the 1960s, the United States has used satellites to observe the
earth and its land, oceans, atmosphere, and space environments.
Satellites provide a global perspective of the environment and allow
observations in areas that may be otherwise unreachable or unsuitable
for measurements. Used in combination with ground, sea, and airborne
observing systems, satellites have become an indispensable part of
measuring and forecasting weather and climate. For example, satellites
provide the graphical images used to identify current weather
patterns, as well as the data that go into numerical weather
prediction models. These models are used to forecast weather 1 to 2
weeks in advance and to issue warnings about severe weather, including
the path and intensity of hurricanes. Satellite data are also used to
warn infrastructure owners when increased solar activity is expected
to affect key assets, including communication satellites or the
electric power grid. When collected over time, satellite data can also
be used to observe trends and changes in the earth's climate. For
example, these data are used to monitor and project seasonal, annual,
and decadal changes in the earth's temperature, vegetation coverage,
and ozone coverage.
Current Environmental Satellite Programs Include Both Operational and
Research Satellites:
Environmental satellite programs generally fall into two categories:
operational satellites and research and development satellites.
Operational environmental satellites contribute to weather and climate
predictions on a regular basis, and federal agencies sustain them by
launching new satellites as older ones reach the end of their useful
lives. Alternatively, research and development satellites are designed
to test new technologies or to provide insights into environmental
science. While there is not a commitment to sustain the capabilities
demonstrated on research and development satellites on subsequent
missions, these capabilities can be included on operational satellites
if they demonstrate the usefulness of a new measurement or the
maturity of new technology. Currently, the United States operates a
fleet of operational environmental satellites, as well as multiple
research and development satellites.
Operational Environmental Satellites:
Operational environmental satellites conduct earth observations from
space in either a low-earth polar orbit or a geostationary earth
orbit. Polar-orbiting satellites circle the earth in an almost north-
south orbit within 1,250 miles of the earth, providing global coverage
of conditions that affect weather and climate. Each satellite makes
about 14 orbits a day. As the earth rotates beneath it, each satellite
views the entire earth's surface twice a day. In contrast,
geostationary satellites maintain a fixed position relative to the
earth from an orbit of about 22,300 miles in space. Figure 1 describes
key characteristics of polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites.
Figure 1: Characteristics of Polar and Geostationary Satellites:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
Illustration depicts the world and the sun, as well as the following
information:
Polar satellites:
* Low earth orbit (less than 1,250 miles above the earth);
* Take approximately 90-120 minutes to orbit the earth;
* Travel in a North-South direction.
Geostationary satellites:
* At least 22,300 miles above the earth;
* Take approximately 24 hours to orbit the earth, keeping them in a
fixed position relative to the earth's surface.
Sources: GAO and Map Art.
[End of figure]
The United States currently operates two operational polar-orbiting
meteorological satellite systems: the Polar Operational Environmental
Satellites (POES) series, which is managed by NOAA, and the Defense
Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), which is managed by the Air
Force. The POES and DMSP programs provide data that are processed to
provide graphical weather images and specialized weather products.
They also provide the predominant input into numerical weather
prediction models, a primary tool for forecasting weather. These
satellites also provide data used to monitor environmental phenomena,
such as ozone depletion, drought conditions, and energetic particle
activity in the near-earth space environment, as well as data sets
that are used by researchers to monitor climate change.
Currently, one POES and two DMSP satellites are positioned so that
they can observe the earth in early morning, midmorning, and early
afternoon polar orbits. In addition, a European satellite, called the
Meteorological Operational (MetOp) satellite, provides observations in
the midmorning orbit.[Footnote 3] Together, they ensure that, for any
region of the earth, the data provided to users are generally no more
than 6 hours old. Figure 2 illustrates the current operational polar
satellite configuration.
Figure 2: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
Illustration depicts the world and the following information:
Notional local equatorial crossing times:
DMSP: 0530 hours;
DMSP: 0800 hours;
MetOp: 0930 hours;
POES: 1330 hours.
Sources: GAO analysis of NPOESS and DOD data; MapArt (globe).
[End of figure]
NOAA, NASA, and DOD are currently developing the next generation of
operational polar-orbiting environmental satellites, called NPOESS.
This program was planned to converge the POES and DMSP satellite
programs into a single program capable of satisfying both civilian and
military requirements for earth and space weather, as well as climate
monitoring. As currently defined, NPOESS consists of a series of four
satellites, as well as a demonstration satellite called the NPOESS
Preparatory Project (NPP). NPP is intended to reduce the risk
associated with launching new sensor technologies and to ensure
continuity of climate data. The agencies plan to launch NPP in 2011,
with the other satellites following at regular intervals to ensure
satellite coverage in two orbits through 2026. Due to poor program
performance and interagency conflicts over system requirements, the
NPOESS program is currently being restructured to allow separate
acquisitions by NOAA and DOD. However, it is not yet clear how or when
this transition will take place.
In addition to the polar satellite program, NOAA also manages an
operational geostationary satellite program, called the Geostationary
Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) program. NOAA operates GOES
as a two-satellite system that is primarily focused on the United
States (see figure 3). These satellites are uniquely positioned to
provide broad, continuously updated coverage of atmospheric and
surface conditions on the earth, as well as the space environment
surrounding the earth. For example, geostationary satellites observe
the development of hazardous weather events, such as hurricanes and
severe thunderstorms, and track their movement and intensity to help
reduce or avoid major losses of property and life. In addition, the
geostationary satellites track space weather variables such as solar X-
ray fluctuations and high-energy particles that are used in
identifying emerging solar storms.
Figure 3: Approximate GOES Geographic Coverage:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
Illustration is a map of the world depicting GOES-West and GOES-East
coverage.
Sources: NOAA (data); MapArt (map).
[End of figure]
NOAA is currently developing the next generation geostationary series,
called GOES-R. GOES-R is expected to provide satellite data products
to users more quickly and to provide better clarity and precision than
prior geostationary satellites. It is expected to be a two-satellite
system, launching in 2015 and 2017, and is considered critical to the
United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for
weather forecasting through 2028.
Research Satellites:
In addition to operational polar and geostationary satellites, the
United States operates research satellites to better understand
scientific earth processes and to develop new technologies. Since the
early 1990s, NASA has launched 18 research satellites under its Earth
Observing System, and plans to launch 6 more by 2013.[Footnote 4]
These satellites continue to provide global and seasonal earth system
measurements, which have provided a better understanding of human
impacts on the earth, as well as improved disaster prediction and
mitigation technologies. They are used both by NASA's research
communities and by other agencies, including the U.S. Department of
Agriculture, for operational and decision-making purposes. NASA is now
planning the next generation of research satellites, called its Earth
Systematic Missions program. This program consists of three series of
satellites to advance understanding of the climate system and climate
change. In addition to its earth observation activities, NASA has been
working to understand and measure solar activity in the space
environment. For example, the observations of solar winds from its
Advanced Composition Explorer mission and solar X-ray images from its
Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission are used for both solar
research and space weather forecasting.
DOD also develops environmental research satellites in support of its
mission when a need is identified. For example, the Navy and others
developed the WindSat program to demonstrate new capabilities for
measuring the ocean surface wind vectors from space and to demonstrate
an instrument that was originally planned for the NPOESS mission. In
addition, DOD's Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System
satellite is expected to develop a capability for detecting and
forecasting space weather events that lead to disruptions in
communication signals in high-frequency radios and Global Positioning
System (GPS) satellites.
Environmental Satellite Data and Products:
Environmental satellites gather a broad range of data that are
transformed into a variety of products. Satellite sensors observe
different bands of radiation wavelengths, called channels, which are
used for remotely determining information about the earth's
environment. When first received, satellite data are considered raw
data. To make them usable, NOAA, NASA, and DOD operate data processing
centers that format the data so that they are time-sequenced and
include earth location and calibration information. After formatting,
these data are called raw data records. The data centers further
process the raw data records into channel-specific data sets, called
sensor data records and temperature data records. These data records
are then used to derive weather and climate products called
environmental data records and climate data records.
Environmental data records generally support near-term weather
observations and include a wide range of atmospheric products
detailing cloud coverage, temperature, humidity, and ozone
distribution; land surface products showing snow cover, vegetation,
and land use; ocean products depicting sea surface temperatures, sea
ice, and wave height; and characterizations of the space environment.
Combinations of these data records (raw, sensor, temperature, and
environmental data records) are also used to derive more sophisticated
products, including the forecasts that result from weather prediction
modeling. In contrast, climate data records identify longer term
variations in the climate and include observations of the land, ocean,
and atmosphere.
While environmental and climate data products use much of the same
data, the two user communities' needs differ. In order to deliver
timely weather forecasts and warnings, meteorologists require the
rapid delivery of environmental data. Alternatively, scientists
involved in climate monitoring, prediction, and research require
accurate, precise, and consistent data over long periods of time.
Figure 4 is a simplified depiction of the various stages of
environmental satellite data processing, and figure 5 depicts examples
of two different weather products. Figure 6 depicts an example of a
climate data record.
Figure 4: Stages of Satellite Data Processing:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
1) Raw data:
2) Raw data records: goes directly to 3 and 8.
3) Sensor data records and temperature data records: goes directly to
4, 5, and 8.
5) Calibration: goes directly to 7.
6) Environmental data records:
7) Climate data records:
8) Derived products and output from prediction models.
Sources: GAO analysis of NASA and NOAA information.
[End of figure]
Figure 5: Examples of Weather Products:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
Note: The figure on the left is a POES Image of Hurricane Katrina in
2005, and the figure on the right is an analysis of ozone
concentration produced from POES satellite data.
Source: NOAA‘s National Environmental Satellite Data and Information
Service.
[End of figure]
Figure 6: Example of a Climate Data Record:
[Refer to PDF for image: line graph overlaying a world globe]
Graph depicts annual sea ice minimum in millions of square miles, from
1978 through 2008. 1978 through 1984 depicts more than 6 million
square km each year. 1990 through 2006 vary between more than 5
million, but less than 7 million square km each year. 2007 and 2008
are each under 4 million km each year.
Note: This image depicts the minimum sea ice concentration (the fewest
number of square kilometers (km) of Arctic area covered with sea ice)
in successive Septembers from 1979-2008. The data was collected by the
Special Sensor Microwave/Imager sensor on DOD's DMSP satellites.
[End of figure]
An Overview of Climate Products and Uses:
One subset of satellite-provided environmental weather information is
climate data. Satellite-provided climate data are used in combination
with ground and ocean observing systems to understand seasonal,
annual, and decadal variations in the climate. Satellites provide land
observations such as measurements of soil moisture, changes in how
land is used, and vegetation growth; ocean observations such as sea
levels, sea surface temperature, and ocean color; and atmospheric
observations such as greenhouse gas levels (e.g., carbon dioxide),
aerosol and dust particles, and moisture concentration. When these
data are obtained over long periods of time, scientists are able to
use them to determine short-and long-term trends in how the earth's
systems work and how they work together. For example, climate
measurements have allowed scientists to better understand the effect
of deforestation on how the earth absorbs heat, retains rainwater, and
absorbs greenhouse gases. Scientists also use climate data to help
predict climate cycles that affect the weather, such as El Niņo, and
to develop global estimates of food crop production for a particular
year or season. Table 1 provides examples of ways in which satellite-
provided climate products are used.
Table 1: Examples of Satellite-Provided Climate Products and Their
Uses:
Products: Precipitation analysis; Assesses the probability for
accumulation of precipitation (rainfall or snowfall) or changes from
normal precipitation amounts for given regions;
Uses:
* Agricultural industry uses for decisions such as crop mixture, crop
insurance needs, and timing and amount of irrigation needed;
* Water managers use for plans in developing and operating water
reservoirs, as well as predicting river flow;
* Health officials use for studies of impacts to human health (e.g.,
malaria, cholera, and other water-borne diseases).
Products: Land cover/vegetation and land use analysis; Assesses the
location, health, and types of plant life for given regions and areas
of land that can be developed for urbanization or other land uses;
Uses:
* Scientists and wildlife conservation managers use in studying the
impacts of changes in land cover/vegetation on wildlife (e.g., loss of
food source, habitat);
* Forestry managers use for decisions on when and where to restrict
burning in order to prevent wildfire outbreaks;
* Transportation officials use in determining placement of highways
and train routes;
* Agricultural industry and humanitarian assistance planners use crop
coverage to help predict world food supply and shortages;
* Scientists and land use planners use to determine how certain areas
will respond to changing weather, as well as to better understand
global changes in greenhouse gases and the earth's heat retention.
Products: Sea wave and wind analysis; Assesses wave heights and wind
conditions over the ocean to describe sea states and potentially
adverse tropical weather;
Uses:
* Marine cargo industry uses for routing and scheduling shipping
routes;
* U.S. Navy uses for military logistics and planning;
* Petroleum industry uses in offshore drilling operations.
Products: Sea ice analysis;
Assesses the location of ice and changes in ice characteristics;
Uses:
* Marine cargo industry uses to identify available or emerging
shipping routes;
* U.S. Navy uses in Arctic sea ice models for long-range planning for
fleet operations.
Products: Land surface temperature analysis; Assesses the probability
for surface temperature ranges and deviations from normal temperatures
for given regions;
Uses:
* Health officials use in identifying potentially adverse health
affects on humans (e.g., heat stress, disease outbreaks such as
malaria and avian influenza);
* Producers and consumers of natural gas and electricity use to
identify changing energy demand based on changes in temperatures.
Products: Cloud physics and aerosol analysis;
Assesses the presence of clouds, smoke, and dust and their impacts to
satellite or aircraft instruments;
* The U.S. Air Force uses for military airborne planning and
operations;
* Climate scientists use to account for the effects that cloud
properties may have on other satellite-based observations.
Products: Severe weather seasonal outlooks; Assesses the probability
of the number and severity of severe weather events such as
hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes;
Uses:
* Insurance industry uses in identifying potential liabilities and
risk of losses;
* The Federal Emergency Management Agency uses for emergency
preparedness and response activities;
* Weather forecasters use to help analyze the likelihood of certain
weather events such as hurricanes.
Sources: GAO analysis of data from DOD, NASA, NOAA, the U.S. Group on
Earth Observations (USGEO), the U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP), and the National Research Council.
[End of table]
An Overview of Space Weather Products and Uses:
Another subset of satellite-provided environmental weather information
is space weather. Satellite-provided observations of space weather
generally describe changes in solar activity in the space environment.
Just as scientists use observations of weather that occurs on the
earth's surface and in its atmosphere to develop forecasts, scientists
and researchers use space weather observations to detect and forecast
solar storms that may be potentially harmful to society. Examples of
space weather observations include bursts of solar energy called solar
flares, solar winds, geomagnetic activity associated with solar
storms, solar X-ray images and fluctuations, and solar ultraviolet
images and fluctuations. These activities can adversely impact space
assets (such as communication, GPS, and environmental satellites),
airplanes flying at high altitudes or over the poles, ground assets
(such as the electric energy grid), and the communications
infrastructure (including high-frequency radio communications and
transmissions between GPS satellites and ground-based receivers).
Figure 7 provides an illustration of the key assets that are affected
by solar weather and the solar weather activities that could put these
assets at risk, while table 2 provides examples of ways in which space
weather products and services are used.
Figure 7: Key Assets and Risks in the Earth‘s Space Environment:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
Illustration depicts the following on the ground:
Radar;
GPS receivers;
Electric power grid.
Assets:
Communication satellites;
Environmental satellites;
GPS satellites;
International Space Station;
Planes;
Communication links.
Risks:
Geomagnetic storm;
Electromagnetic radiation;
Ionospheric scintillation;
High-energy particles;
Solar radio burst.
Source: GAO.
[End of figure]
Table 2: Examples of Satellite-Provided Space Weather Products and
Their Uses:
Products: Energetic particle analysis; Assesses the occurrence of
energetic electrons, protons, and heavy ions in space;
Uses:
* Satellite operators use to protect satellite components from damage
and to correct for satellite disorientation;
* NASA space mission control managers use to assess potential damage
to spacecraft and potential harm to astronauts;
* The Federal Aviation Administration uses to assess potential
radiation hazards to passengers during high-altitude flights.
Products: Ionospheric disturbance analysis; Assesses how solar
activity disturbs the dynamic environment within the upper atmosphere;
Uses:
* Military forces monitor for potential disruption to the Global
Positioning System, which can affect military positioning, navigation,
and timing of military operations;
* Others interested in using GPS for land and sea-based navigation
monitor for potential errors.
Products: Solar X-rays and radio burst analysis; Assesses bursts of
solar radio waves and X-rays emitted from the sun;
Uses:
* Satellite operators use to correct satellite orbital drift and
geolocation errors;
* The military uses to monitor potential radar interference, satellite
communication interference, and high-frequency radio blackouts.
Products: Solar wind analysis; Assesses the path, severity, and timing
of space weather events that are approaching the earth's space
environment;
Uses:
* Civilian and military space weather forecasters use to send out
space weather warnings, watches, and alerts;
* NASA researchers use to investigate the sun and its effects on the
earth and solar system.
Products: Geomagnetic storm analysis; Assesses solar activity that
causes disturbances of the earth's magnetic field;
Uses:
* The military uses to assess potential launch trajectory errors and
radar interference;
* Electric power grid managers monitor for potential damage to or
failure of the power grid.
Sources: GAO analysis of DOD, NOAA, and National Research Council data.
[End of table]
Federal Responsibilities for Environmental Satellites, Satellite Data
Processing, and Climate and Space Weather Products:
Three key federal agencies--NOAA, NASA, and DOD--are responsible for
managing environmental satellite programs, processing the collected
environmental data into usable climate and space weather products and
services, and disseminating the data and products to others. Many
other agencies use these data and products to support their missions.
For example, the Department of Agriculture uses temperature,
precipitation, and soil moisture data and products to inform farmers
on what to plant, when to plant, and strategies to employ during the
growing season, while the Department of Energy uses space weather
information to help determine when the electrical grid could be
damaged by solar events. These agencies also participate in one or
more federal working groups that coordinate the agencies' needs for
and uses of environmental satellite products. These interagency
working groups are overseen by offices within the Executive Office of
the President.
Climate Responsibilities:
NOAA, DOD, and NASA manage multiple organizations with a diverse set
of climate responsibilities. Specifically, NOAA has several
organizations with responsibilities for developing and using satellite
data to monitor and predict the earth's climate.[Footnote 5] These
include the following:
* The National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service
manages the development of environmental satellite products. It also
has three data centers that archive environmental data and products
related to climate, oceans, and geophysical features and disseminate
these data and products to the public.
* The National Weather Service is responsible for weather, hydrologic,
and climate forecasts and advisories for the United States, its
territories, and adjacent waters and ocean areas for the protection of
life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Through
its National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Prediction
Center, it disseminates products and services that describe the
earth's climate and provides near-term climate predictions.
* The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research has climate
responsibilities focusing on understanding causes of global climate
change and on improving operational climate forecasting capabilities
through its Earth System Research Laboratory and Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory.
Organizations within DOD also have responsibilities for providing
climate forecasts that are specifically tailored for military planning
and operations. For example, the Air Force Weather Agency is
responsible for providing environmental outlooks to support the Air
Force and Army, including forecasts of the properties of clouds (such
as density or ice content) and ground conditions to support planning
for airborne and ground operations. In addition, the Navy's Naval
Oceanographic Office tracks ocean currents for planning ship tracking
and missions, and provides outlooks of the acoustical environment for
submarines. The Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography
Command provides environmental outlooks in support of naval
operations, including outlooks on coastal and open ocean conditions.
NASA's Earth Science Division is responsible for advancing the
understanding of the earth system and demonstrating new satellite
technologies through its environmental research and development
satellites. NASA currently demonstrates new measurements and
technologies for measuring climate through various satellite and
airborne missions, including the Earth Observing System.
In addition to NOAA, DOD, and NASA, the Department of the Interior's
U.S. Geological Survey is responsible for operating the Landsat
satellites, distributing the data, and maintaining an archive of
Landsat 7 and other remotely sensed data.
Other agencies use climate products in their operations. For example,
the Environmental Protection Agency uses sea level data and products
to examine the potential societal impacts, adaptation options, and
other decisions sensitive to sea level rise in coastal communities,
while the Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency
Management Agency uses climate research and predictions to help
develop disaster preparedness and response plans. Additional
processing and product development is done in partnership with
universities, nongovernmental organizations, and industry. See
appendix II for more information on federal agencies and their climate-
related responsibilities.
Space Weather Responsibilities:
NOAA, DOD, and NASA also manage organizations with responsibilities
for space weather satellites and prediction. NOAA and DOD both obtain
satellite and land-based measurements of solar activity and produce
operational space weather products for a variety of users.
Specifically, NOAA's National Weather Service manages the Space
Weather Prediction Center, which is responsible for continuously
monitoring space weather for civilian user communities, and provides
official space weather warnings, watches, and alerts.[Footnote 6] In
addition, NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and
Information Service has a data center that archives environmental data
related to space weather and disseminates them to the public.
Complementing NOAA's responsibilities for civilian space weather
forecasts, DOD's Air Force Weather Agency is responsible for
continuously monitoring space weather for defense and intelligence
user communities. The Air Force Weather Agency and NOAA products are
similar, and the majority of the space weather data they use are the
same. However, the Air Force customizes specialized products to
provide space situational awareness for its users.[Footnote 7] Both
the Air Force and NOAA work together to ensure that both the civilian
and military sectors understand and can respond to changes in the
space environment.
NASA conducts space weather research and development activities using
environmental satellites. For instance, NASA observes solar wind data
from its Advanced Composition Explorer mission[Footnote 8] and solar X-
ray images from its Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission to
better understand the sun and its effects on the earth and solar
system. Data from these satellites are used for solar research and are
also used by other agencies for operational space weather forecasting,
including watches and warnings.
Other federal agencies use space weather products to support their
respective missions. For example, the Department of Transportation's
Federal Aviation Administration examines radiation exposure at high
altitudes, while the Department of Energy uses observations from space
weather satellites to study possible impacts on electrical energy
transmission through the energy grid. See appendix II for more
information on federal agencies and their space-weather-related
responsibilities.
Interagency Coordination of Satellite-Provided Environmental
Observations:
In addition to agencies with responsibilities for acquiring,
processing and disseminating environmental data and information, there
are two organizations--the U.S. Group on Earth Observations (USGEO)
and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)--that are
primarily responsible for coordinating federal efforts with respect to
observations of the earth's environment. The National Space Weather
Program serves as the coordinating body for space weather.
* USGEO is made up of representatives from federal agencies with a
role in earth observations, as well as liaisons from the Executive
Office of the President. The group's responsibilities include
developing and coordinating an ongoing process for planning,
developing, and managing an integrated U.S. earth-observing system
consisting of ground, airborne, and satellite measurements.[Footnote
9] USGEO reports to the National Science and Technology Council's
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources.
* USGCRP consists of representatives from 13 federal departments and
agencies, as well as liaisons from the Executive Office of the
President and USGEO. Congress established USGCRP in 1990 to coordinate
and integrate federal research on changes in the global environment
and to discuss its implications for society. USGCRP reports to the
National Science and Technology Council's Committee on Environment and
Natural Resources.
* The National Space Weather Program is responsible for coordinating
federal efforts and leveraging resources with respect to space weather
observation. The program consists of representatives from eight
federal agencies, who coordinate their activities through NOAA's
Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology.
Appendix III identifies the federal organizations that participate in
these interagency coordination groups.
Executive Oversight of Federal Environmental Observations:
The Executive Office of the President provides oversight for federal
space-based environmental observation. Within the Executive Office of
the President, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), the
Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and the Council on
Environmental Quality carry out these governance responsibilities. In
addition, the National Science and Technology Council and its
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources provide the Executive
Office of the President with executive-level coordination and advice.
Table 3 identifies roles and responsibilities of organizations within
the Executive Office of the President that provide oversight of
federal environmental observation efforts.
Table 3: Organizations within the Executive Office of the President
That Provide Oversight of Environmental Observations:
Organization: OSTP;
Oversight responsibility: OSTP is responsible for, among other things,
providing scientific and technical analysis with respect to major
policies, plans, and programs of the federal government; leading an
interagency effort to develop and implement sound science and
technology policies and budgets; and building partnerships among
federal, state, and local governments, other countries, and the
scientific community; The Assistant to the President for Science and
Technology is also the Director of OSTP.
Organization: OMB;
Oversight responsibility: OMB is responsible for overseeing federal
program budget planning; evaluating the effectiveness of agency
programs, policies, and procedures; assessing competing funding
demands among agencies; and setting funding priorities.
Organization: Council on Environmental Quality;
Oversight responsibility: The council coordinates federal
environmental efforts and works with agencies and other White House
offices in the development of environmental policies and initiatives.
Organization: National Science and Technology Council;
Oversight responsibility: This is a cabinet-level council that
coordinates science and technological policies among federal research
and development entities and sets national goals for science and
technology investments. The council's Committee on Environment and
Natural Resources provides advice on federal research and development
efforts in the area of environment and natural resources. The
Assistant to the President for Science and Technology functions as the
head of the council and its committees, while OSTP provides
administrative support.
Source: GAO analysis of Executive Office of the President
responsibilities.
[End of table]
Prior GAO Reports Recommended Developing Plans to Restore Canceled
Instruments:
In recent years, we have issued a series of reports on the NPOESS and
GOES-R satellite programs.[Footnote 10] Both programs are critical to
United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for
weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the years
2026 and 2028, respectively. However, both of these programs were
restructured due to their complexity and growing costs. These
restructuring efforts involved removing selected climate and space
weather instruments. Specifically, on the NPOESS program, four
instruments were removed and four had their capabilities reduced. On
the GOES-R program, NOAA removed an advanced instrument that was
important to the weather and climate community. In May 2008, we
recommended that the agencies develop a long-term strategy for
restoring the NPOESS sensors in order to guide short-term decision
making and to avoid an ad hoc approach to restoring capabilities.
[Footnote 11] In addition, in April 2009, we recommended that NOAA
develop a plan for restoring the advanced GOES-R capabilities that
were removed from the program, if feasible and justified.[Footnote 12]
Federal Agencies Have Not Established Plans to Restore All
Capabilities Removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R Programs:
Federal agencies have not yet established plans to restore all of the
capabilities removed from the NPOESS[Footnote 13] and GOES-R programs.
As originally planned, the NPOESS and GOES-R programs included
instruments and products to meet a wide range of user needs through
2026 and 2028, respectively. Specifically, both NPOESS and GOES-R were
envisioned to fulfill requirements for weather, space weather, and
climate monitoring. However, in 2006, both of these programs were
restructured due to growing costs. These restructuring efforts
involved removing selected climate and space weather instruments--and,
in some cases, replacing them with a less-capable instrument. Table 4
lists the instruments that were removed or degraded.
Table 4: Instruments and Products Removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R
Programs:
Satellite program: NPOESS;
Instrument: Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor;
Instrument description: Retrieves specific measurements of clouds and
aerosols (liquid droplets or solid particles suspended in the
atmosphere, such as sea spray, smog, and smoke);
Restructuring decision/status: This instrument was canceled from the
two afternoon satellites (C1 and C3). Two products (aerosol refractive
index and cloud particle size and distribution) will no longer be
produced.
Satellite program: NPOESS;
Instrument: Conical-Scanning Microwave Imager/Sounder;
Instrument description: Collects microwave images and data needed to
measure rain rate, ocean surface wind speed and direction, amount of
water in the clouds, and soil moisture, as well as temperature and
humidity at different atmospheric levels;
Restructuring decision/status: This instrument was canceled from all
four NPOESS satellites and is to be replaced by a less complex
Microwave Imager/Sounder instrument on the second, third, and fourth
NPOESS satellites. In combination with another instrument, the
Microwave Imager/Sounder is expected to provide all of the products
that were originally planned, except for a soil moisture product
(which will be degraded).
Satellite program: NPOESS;
Instrument: Earth Radiation Budget Sensor;
Instrument description: Measures solar short-wave radiation and long-
wave radiation released by the earth back into space on a worldwide
scale to enhance long-term climate studies;
Restructuring decision/status: This instrument was canceled from the
two afternoon satellites (C1 and C3) and replaced by a legacy sensor
(called the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System) on the first
satellite only. The legacy sensor is expected to provide all of the
products that were originally planned.
Satellite program: NPOESS;
Instrument: Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (nadir/limb);
Instrument description: Collects data needed to measure the amount and
distribution of ozone in the earth's atmosphere. Consists of two
components (limb and nadir) that can be provided separately;
Restructuring decision/status: One part of this instrument (nadir) is
to be included on NPP and on the first and third NPOESS satellites.
The other part (limb) was canceled, but it will be included on NPP.
Without the limb component, one product (ozone total column/profile)
will be degraded.
Satellite program: NPOESS;
Instrument: Radar Altimeter;
Instrument description: Measures variances in sea surface
height/topography and ocean surface roughness, which are used to
determine sea height, significant wave height, and ocean surface wind
speed and to provide critical inputs to ocean forecasting and climate
prediction models;
Restructuring decision/status: This instrument was canceled from the
two early morning satellites (C2 and C4). NOAA and the Navy are
planning to procure separate altimetry satellites.
Satellite program: NPOESS;
Instrument: Space Environmental Sensor Suite;
Instrument description: Collects data to identify, reduce, and predict
the effects of space weather on technological systems, including
satellites and radio links;
Restructuring decision/status: This sensor suite was canceled from
three NPOESS satellites (C2, C3, and C4) and replaced by a less
capable and less expensive legacy sensor suite (called the Space
Environment Monitor) on the first and third NPOESS satellites (C1 and
C3). The legacy sensor will provide 5 of the 13 planned products. The
8 products that will no longer be produced include electric fields,
geomagnetic fields and in situ plasma fluctuations.
Satellite program: NPOESS;
Instrument: Total Solar Irradiance Sensor;
Instrument description: Monitors and captures total and spectral solar
irradiance data;
Restructuring decision/status: This sensor was canceled from the two
early morning satellites (C2 and C4). NOAA plans to include a
replacement sensor on the first NPOESS satellite. However, one
product, solar irradiance, will no longer be produced by the second
and fourth satellites.
Satellite program: GOES-R;
Instrument: Hyperspectral Environmental Suite;
Instrument description: Measures atmospheric moisture and temperature
profiles to develop weather products such as severe thunderstorm
warnings and to monitor coastal regions for ecosystem health, water
quality, coastal erosion, and harmful algal blooms;
Restructuring decision/status: This instrument was canceled. This
instrument was envisioned to provide a number of products that will be
provided by another instrument. Fourteen products will not be
provided. These include cloud base height, ozone layers, ocean color,
turbidity, and cloud imagery.
Sources: GAO analysis of NOAA, NASA, and DOD data.
[End of table]
Since June 2006, the agencies have taken steps to restore selected
capabilities that were removed from NPOESS in the near-term; however,
they do not yet have plans to restore capabilities for the full length
of time covered by the NPOESS program. Specifically, the agencies
decided to restore the capabilities of three NPOESS instruments
through 2016 or 2021, the capabilities of a fourth instrument through
2018 for NOAA and through 2025 for the Navy, and to accept degraded
capabilities in replacing a fifth instrument between 2019 and 2024.
[Footnote 14] The agencies have not yet made any plans to restore the
capabilities of a sixth NPOESS instrument, and NOAA has not yet made
plans to restore the capabilities of the GOES-R instrument. This
leaves gaps in promised capabilities ranging from 1 to 11 years,
depending on the instrument. Figure 8 provides a visual summary of
plans and gaps in plans for key instruments through 2026.
Figure 8: Current Plans and Potential Gaps in Coverage for Instruments
Removed from NPOESS and GOES-R:
[Refer to PDF for image: timelines in a graph format]
Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor: Glory;
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2010-2015;
Capability gap: 2015-2024.
Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (replaced by the Clouds and the Earth's
Radiant Energy System):
Aqua:
Satellite provides capability but is beyond its expected mission life:
201--2013;
NPP:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2011-2016;
NPOESS C1:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2014-2021;
Capability gap: 2021-2024.
Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (limb):
Aura:
Satellite provides capability but is beyond its expected mission life:
2010-2013;
NPP:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2011-2016;
Capability gap: 2016-2024.
Radar Altimeter:
OSTM/Jason-2:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2010-2013;
Jason-3:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2013-2018;
Capability gap: 2019-2026;
GFO-2 altimeter:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2014-2019;
GFO-3 altimeter:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2020-2025;
Capability gap: 2026.
Space Environmental Sensor Suite/Space Environment Monitor:
DMSP F-17:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2010;
DMSP F-18:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2010-2013;
DMSP F-19:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2012-2017;
DMSP F-20:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2014-2019;
NPOESS C1:
Satellite provides limited capability: 2014-2021;
NPOESS C3:
Satellite provides limited capability: 2018-2024;
Capability gap: 2025-2026.
Total Solar Irradiance Sensor:
SORCE:
Satellite provides capability but is beyond its expected mission life:
2010-2013;
Glory:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2010-2015;
NPOESS C1:
Satellite has or is expected to have this capability: 2014-2021;
Capability gap: 2021-2026.
Hyperspectral Environmental Suite:
Capability gap: 2015-2026.
Sources: GAO analysis of DOD, NOAA, and NASA information.
Notes: The Aqua, Aura, Glory, Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/
Jason-2, and the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE)
satellites are part of NASA's Earth Observing System mission. The
Geodectic/Geophysical Satellite Follow-On (GFO) missions (GFO-2 and
GFO-3) are Navy satellites. Jason-3 is a NOAA satellite.
The Conical-Scanning Microwave Imager/Sounder is not included in this
chart because NOAA, NASA and DOD agreed to include a less complex
sensor on the second, third, and fourth NPOESS satellites, ensuring
coverage through 2026.
[End of figure]
Both DOD and NOAA officials reiterated their commitment to look for
opportunities to restore the capabilities that were removed from
NPOESS and GOES-R. However, agency officials acknowledge that they do
not have plans to restore the full set of capabilities because of the
complexity and cost of developing new satellite programs.
Until the capabilities that were removed from NPOESS and GOES-R are
restored, there will be future gaps in key atmospheric measurements,
including aerosols and key cloud properties. There will also be future
gaps in oceanic measurements, including sea surface height and wave
height. These gaps will reduce the accuracy of key climate and space
weather products--and could lead to interruptions in the continuity of
data needed for accurate climate observations over time.
Meteorologists, oceanographers, and climatologists reported that these
gaps will seriously impact ongoing and planned earth monitoring
activities.
Federal Efforts to Ensure the Long-term Provision of Satellite Climate
Data Are Insufficient:
For over a decade, the climate community has clamored for an
interagency strategy to coordinate agency priorities, budgets, and
schedules for environmental satellites over the long term--and the
governance structure to implement that strategy. Specifically, in
1999, the National Research Council reported on the need for a
comprehensive long-term earth observation strategy and, in 2000, for
an effective governance structure that would balance interagency
issues and provide authority and accountability for implementing the
strategy.[Footnote 15] The National Research Council has repeated
these concerns in multiple reports since then.[Footnote 16] Similarly,
in 1999, the Administrators of NOAA and NASA wrote letters to the
White House's OSTP noting the need for an interagency strategy and the
means to implement it. They called for OSTP to work with OMB to better
define agency roles and responsibilities and to align a satellite
strategy with agency budgets. More recently, in 2008, a strategic
policy research center recommended that the United States develop an
overall plan for an integrated, comprehensive, and sustained earth
observation system and the governance structure to support it.
[Footnote 17]
While progress has been made in developing near-term interagency
plans, this initiative is languishing without a firm completion date,
and federal efforts to establish and implement a strategy for the long-
term provision of satellite data are insufficient. Specifically, in
2005, the National Science and Technology Council's Committee on
Environment and Natural Resources established USGEO to develop an
earth observation strategy and coordinate its implementation.[Footnote
18] Since that time, USGEO assessed current and evolving requirements,
evaluated them to determine investment priorities, and drafted the
Strategic Assessment Report--a report delineating near-term
opportunities and priorities for earth observation from both space and
ground.[Footnote 19] According to agency officials, this report is the
first in a planned series, and it was approved by OSTP and multiple
federal agencies in May 2009. However, OSTP has not yet forwarded the
draft to the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources and the
President's National Science and Technology Council because it is
reconsidering whether to revise or move forward with the plan. USGEO
officials could not provide a schedule for completing this near-term
interagency plan.
This draft report is an important first step in developing a national
strategy for earth observations, but it is not sufficient to ensure
the long-term provision of data vital to understanding the climate.
The draft report integrates different agencies' requirements and
proposes continuing or improving earth observations in 17 separate
areas, using both satellite and land-based measuring systems. However,
the report does not include costs, schedules, or plans for the long-
term provision of satellite data. For example, it does not fully
address the capabilities that were removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R
missions. While the report notes the importance of continuing current
plans to fly the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor on the NPP satellite
and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System sensor on the NPP
and first NPOESS satellites, it does not make recommendations for what
to do over the long term.
In addition, the federal government lacks a clear process for
implementing an interagency strategy. Key offices within the Executive
Office of the President with responsibilities for environmental
observations, including OSTP and the Council for Environmental
Quality, have not established processes or time frames for
implementing an interagency strategy--including steps for working with
OMB to ensure that agencies' annual budgets are aligned with the
interagency strategy. As a result, even if an interagency strategy was
finalized, it is not clear how OSTP and OMB would ensure that the
responsibilities identified in the interagency strategy are consistent
with agency plans and are funded within agency budgets.
Agency officials cite multiple reasons for the difficulties they have
encountered over the last decade in establishing a national
interagency plan for long-term earth observations. One issue involves
conflicting priorities between and among agencies, including
disconnects between the research and operational communities and
between the weather and climate communities. Another issue is the lack
of agreement on how and when to transition research capabilities to
operational satellites--and how to fund them.
Without a long-term interagency strategy for satellite observations,
and a means for implementing it, agencies face gaps in satellite data
and risk making ad hoc decisions on individual satellites. For
example, until recently, NASA's QuikScat research satellite provided
measurements of the effect of wind on ocean surfaces, which were used
by the National Weather Service to improve tropical and midlatitude
storm warnings and by the National/Naval Ice Center to improve its
understanding of Arctic and Antarctic ice environments.[Footnote 20]
However, NOAA does not plan to replace the satellite until at least
2014. This extended gap leaves the organizations that used QuikScat
with degraded measurements. As another example, Landsat satellites
have provided data on land cover change, vegetation mapping, and
wildfire effects for over 35 years.[Footnote 21] Currently, there are
two Landsat satellites in operation, and both are long past their
expected life spans. While there is a plan to develop and launch the
Landsat Data Continuity Mission by June 2013, there is no commitment
to ensure continuity after that mission.[Footnote 22] Without Landsat
or a similar satellite program, there will be a significant gap in
land cover images and other important global climate data ranging from
water management to agriculture.
Until an interagency strategy for earth observation is established,
and a clear process for implementing it is in place, federal agencies
will continue to procure their immediate priorities on an ad hoc
basis, the economic benefits of a coordinated approach to investments
in earth observation may be lost, and the continuity of key
measurements may be lost. This will hinder our nation's ability to
understand long-term climate changes.
Federal Agencies Lack a Strategy for the Long-term Provision of Space
Weather Data:
While key federal agencies have taken steps to plan for continued
space weather observations in the near term, they lack a strategy for
the long-term provision of space weather data. Similar to maintaining
satellite-provided climate observations, maintaining space weather
observations over the long term is important. The National Space
Weather Program, the interagency coordinating body for the United
States space weather community, has repeatedly recommended taking
action to sustain the space weather observation infrastructure on a
long-term basis.
Agencies participating in the National Space Weather Program have
taken short-term actions that may help alleviate near-term gaps in
space weather observations, but OSTP has not approved or released two
reports that are expected to establish plans for obtaining space
weather observations over the long term. Both NOAA and DOD are seeking
to replace key experimental space-observing satellites.[Footnote 23]
In addition, at OSTP's request, the National Space Weather Program
reported in 2008 on the impacts for both operations and research of
not having NASA's aging Advanced Composition Explorer or the planned
space weather capabilities from the NPOESS program. It subsequently
developed, again at the request of OSTP, two reports documenting
specific recommendations for the future of space weather, one on what
to do about the Advanced Composition Explorer and the other on the
replacement of the space weather capabilities removed from the NPOESS
program. The program submitted the reports in October and November of
2009, respectively. However, OSTP officials do not have a schedule for
approving or releasing the reports.
While the agencies' short-term actions and the pending reports hold
promise, federal agencies do not currently have a comprehensive
interagency strategy for the long-term provision of space weather
data. Until OSTP releases the reports, it will not be clear whether
they provide a clear strategy to ensure the long-term provision of
space weather data--or whether the current efforts are simply ad hoc
attempts to ensure short-term data continuity. Without a comprehensive
long-term strategy for the provision of space weather data, agencies
may make ad hoc decisions to ensure continuity in the near term and
risk making inefficient decisions on key investments.
Conclusions:
Almost 4 years after key climate and space weather instruments were
removed from the NPOESS and GOES-R satellite programs, there are still
significant gaps in future satellite coverage. While individual
agencies have taken steps to restore selected capabilities in the near
term, gaps in coverage ranging from 1 to 11 years are expected
beginning as soon as 2015. The gaps in satellite coverage are expected
to affect the continuity of important climate and space weather
measurements, such as our understanding of how weather cycles impact
global food production, and when radio and GPS satellite
communications are likely to be affected by space weather.
Looking more broadly, despite repeated calls for interagency
strategies for the long-term provision of environmental data (both for
climate and space weather purposes), our nation still lacks such
plans. Efforts to develop even short-term strategies have languished
in committees and offices supporting the Executive Office of the
President, and there is no schedule for them to be approved or
released. Further, even if an interagency strategy for the long-term
provision of environmental observations was established, there are not
clear processes in place to implement it or align it with individual
agencies' plans and annual budgets. Specifically, key organizations
within the Executive Office of the President, including the Office of
Science and Technology Policy, the Office of Management and Budget,
and the Council on Environmental Quality, lack a coordinated process
for ensuring that individual agencies align their plans and budgets to
the greater good identified in an interagency plan.
Until the Executive Office of the President establishes comprehensive
interagency strategies and internal processes that foster the
implementation of these strategies, individual agencies will continue
to address their most pressing priorities as they arise and
opportunities to effectively and efficiently plan ahead will be lost.
Recommendations for Executive Action:
In order to effectively address our country's need for sustained
environmental observations, we recommend that the Assistant to the
President for Science and Technology, in collaboration with key
Executive Office of the President entities (including the Office of
Science and Technology Policy, the Office of Management and Budget,
the Council on Environmental Quality, and the National Science and
Technology Council), take the following four actions:
* Establish a firm deadline for the completion and release of three
key reports on environmental observations:
- USGEO's report on near-term priorities and opportunities in earth
observations, called the Strategic Assessment Report;
- The National Space Weather Program's report on how to address the
loss of the Advanced Composition Explorer capabilities; and:
- The National Space Weather Program's report on how to address the
space weather capabilities that were removed from the NPOESS program.
* Direct USGEO to establish an interagency strategy to address the
long-term provision of environmental observations from satellites that
includes costs and schedules for the satellites, as well as a plan for
the relevant agencies' future budgets.
* Establish an ongoing process, with timelines, for obtaining approval
of the interagency strategy and aligning it with agency plans and
annual budgets.
* Direct the National Space Weather Program Council to establish an
interagency strategy for the long-term provision of space weather
observations.
Agency Comments and Our Evaluation:
A senior policy analyst from the Office of Science and Technology
Policy/Executive Office of the President provided comments on a draft
of this report via e-mail. In addition, we received written comments
on a draft of this report from the Secretary of Commerce, who
transmitted NOAA's comments (see app. IV), and the NASA Associate
Administrator for its Science Mission Directorate (see app. V). DOD
officials declined to comment on a draft of the report.
The Executive Office of the President did not agree or disagree with
our recommendations; however, officials noted that OSTP is currently
revising USGEO's Strategic Assessment Report to update information on
launch schedules and on the availability of certain measurements that
have changed since completion of the report a year ago. Further,
officials agreed that the Strategic Assessment Report is a first step
in developing a strategy for earth observations, and noted that they
plan to use the report as a basis for meeting congressional reporting
requirements directing OSTP to develop a strategy on earth
observations. In crafting this strategy, it will be important for OSTP
to address long-term interagency needs and to work with OMB to ensure
that the long-term plans are aligned with individual agencies' plans
and budgets. If the plan does not include these elements, individual
agencies will continue to address only their most pressing priorities,
other agencies' needs may be ignored, and the government may lose the
ability to effectively and efficiently address its earth observation
needs.
In its comments, NOAA noted that it had completed its actions relative
to delivering input to the Executive Office of the President for
developing strategies for climate and space weather observations. We
agree; it is now up to the Executive Office of the President to
establish and implement an interagency strategy for the long-term
provision of these observations. The agency also responded to our
statement that it had not established plans to restore all of the
capabilities that were removed from the GOES-R and NPOESS programs.
Regarding GOES-R, NOAA stated that it will continue to evaluate the
feasibility and priority of addressing requirements and determine the
appropriate means to meet them.
Regarding NPOESS, NOAA noted that, in fiscal year 2009, the agency
restored the highest priority climate sensors that were removed from
the NPOESS program. NOAA also reported that the fiscal year 2011
President's Budget Request includes plans to restore additional key
climate sensors on JPSS and other satellite programs. However, as
discussed in our report, NOAA's efforts to restore sensors in 2009
addressed only selected near-term needs and did not address the full
set of capabilities over the life of the NPOESS program. Further,
regarding the fiscal year 2011 President's Budget Request, at the time
of our review the full set of capabilities planned for the JPSS
program had not yet been determined. For example, the Total Solar
Irradiance Sensor (which was one of the high-priority sensors that was
restored to the NPOESS program in fiscal year 2009) will not be
included on the JPSS satellite, but could instead be included on
another to-be-determined satellite. As noted several times in our
report, we focused on the capabilities that were planned for the
NPOESS program because plans for JPSS had not yet been finalized. We
have ongoing work to examine the JPSS program, which will further
evaluate NOAA's plans as they are solidified. In a final comment, NOAA
stated that we did not distinguish between potential data gaps in
existing and new capabilities, and suggested that we only use the term
"gap" to describe the potential loss of an existing capability. Given
that the requirements for the NPOESS programs were developed and
validated by multiple agencies nearly a decade ago, and requirements
for the GOES-R sensor were revalidated by NOAA in 2007, we believe it
is appropriate to view the removal of these requirements as gaps--
whether they represent existing or new capabilities.
In its written comments, NASA provided further details on its efforts
to advance the understanding of earth systems and Heliophysics through
environmental research satellites, and provided clarification on plans
for future missions that are included in the fiscal year 2011
President's Budget Request. The agency also noted that OSTP developed
a plan for the future of the land-imaging program, under which NASA
would develop future Landsat-like satellites on behalf of the
Department of the Interior. However, this plan was established in 2007
and has not yet been funded or implemented. It is not clear that it
will be implemented. This situation illustrates that having an
approved plan is not enough to ensure that critical satellite
capabilities are obtained, and reiterates the need for an ongoing
process that aligns interagency strategies with individual agencies'
plans and annual budgets.
OSTP, NOAA, and NASA also provided technical comments on the report,
which we incorporated as appropriate.
As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents
of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days
from the report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report
to interested congressional committees, the Secretary of Commerce, the
Secretary of Defense, the Administrator of NASA, the Director of the
Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Director of the Office of
Management and Budget, and other interested parties. The report also
will be available on the GAO Web site at [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov].
If you or your staff members have questions about this report, please
contact me at (202) 512-9286 or pownerd@gao.gov. Contact points for
our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found
on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made key contributions
to this report are listed in appendix VI.
Signed by:
David A. Powner:
Director, Information Technology Management Issues:
[End of section]
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology:
Our objectives were to (1) assess plans to restore capabilities that
were originally planned for, but then removed from, the National Polar-
orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R)
satellites; (2) evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish
a strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided climate
data; and (3) evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a
strategy for the long-term provision of satellite-provided space
weather data. To assess plans for restoring capabilities from the
NPOESS and GOES-R programs, we compared the original program plans for
sensors and products with current plans and identified gaps over time.
We also observed monthly senior-level management review meetings,
reviewed documentation from those meetings, and interviewed agency
officials to obtain information on any changes in program plans.
To evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy
for the long-term provision of satellite-provided climate data, we
compared plans developed by the Department of Defense (DOD), National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and a draft strategy developed by
the Executive Office of the President's Office of Science and
Technology Policy (OSTP) and the U.S. Group on Earth Observations for
the provision of climate data with recommendations made by the
National Research Council and GAO for the development of a long-term
strategy. We identified the shortfalls of and challenges to those
plans. We also visited NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, Climate
Prediction Center, and Earth System Research Laboratory; the Navy's
Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and Naval
Oceanographic Office; and the Air Force Weather Agency to obtain
information on the uses and users of satellite data for climate
monitoring and prediction, as well the need for interagency strategic
planning for space-based climate observations. We also interviewed
relevant agency officials.
To evaluate the adequacy of federal efforts to establish a strategy
for the long-term provision of satellite-provided space weather data,
we compared DOD, NASA, and NOAA plans for the provision of space
weather data to leading practices for the development of a long-term
strategy, and we identified the potential shortfalls of and challenges
to those plans. We also identified OSTP plans for space weather. We
attended a space weather events workshop to determine key issues
related to long-term plans for space weather observations. We also
visited the Air Force Weather Agency, the Space Weather Prediction
Center, and NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center to obtain
information on the uses and users of satellite data for space weather
monitoring and prediction, as well the need for interagency strategic
planning for space weather observations. We also interviewed relevant
agency officials.
We conducted our work at NOAA, NASA, DOD, and OSTP facilities in the
Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. In addition, we conducted work at
satellite data processing facilities in Asheville, North Carolina;
Monterey, California; Boulder, Colorado; Bay Saint Louis, Mississippi;
and Omaha, Nebraska. We selected these facilities because they host
key military and civilian users of satellite data for weather,
climate, and space weather forecasting. We conducted this performance
audit from June 2009 to April 2010, in accordance with generally
accepted government auditing standards. Those standards require that
we plan and perform the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate
evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our findings and
conclusions based on our audit objectives. We believe that the
evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and
conclusions based on our audit objectives.
[End of section]
Appendix II: Key Federal Organizations with Climate and Space Weather
Responsibilities:
Multiple agencies have a role in developing or using climate and space
weather products. Table 5 lists key federal organizations' roles with
respect to climate observation, while table 6 lists key federal
organizations' roles with respect to space weather observation.
Table 5: Key Federal Organizations‘ Roles for Climate Observation:
Federal agency/organization: Department of Agriculture;
Role/responsibility: Monitors environmental conditions and exploits
environmental observations and land remote sensing to map and monitor
the health, quality, and production of US and global crop conditions
for many applications including commodity price stabilization and food
security. Environmental observations are used to aid in making
payments to producers and as an input for monitoring program integrity
for farm, conservation, and insurance programs. Environmental
conditions are used as an input to monitoring forest health, wildland
fire fuels, and fire behavior.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Commerce/National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration;
Role/responsibility: Monitors and predicts changes in the earth's
environment and oceans and acquires and operates environmental
satellites, including polar-orbiting and geostationary environmental
satellites; also has multiple subagencies with responsibilities for
using this satellite data to develop weather and climate products;
manages the Polar Operational Environmental Satellite and
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite programs, which
provide environmental data used for developing graphical weather
images and specialized weather products, forecasting weather through
numerical weather prediction models and monitoring other environmental
phenomena.
Federal agency/organization: National Environmental Satellite, Data,
and Information Service;
Role/responsibility: Manages the development and operations of
satellites and remote-based observations; its National Climatic Data
Center stores and disseminates climate data observed through
satellites and makes them accessible to the nation and public.
Federal agency/organization: National Weather Service;
Role/responsibility: Provides weather and climate forecasts for the
protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national
economy. One of several National Centers for Environmental Prediction
within the National Weather Service, the Climate Prediction Center
provides products and services that describe, assess, monitor, and
predict (e.g., forecasts/outlooks ranging from days to seasons to
years) the earth's environment.
Federal agency/organization: Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric
Research;
Role/responsibility: Conducts analytical and theoretical climate
research experiments to better understand and predict climate
variability and change and to enhance society's ability to plan and
respond to global change; includes labs, like the Earth System
Research Laboratory, which conduct research to develop new or improved
products/services and models.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Commerce/National Institute
of Standards and Technology;
Role/responsibility: Provides measurements and standards that support
accurate and reliable climate observations; also performs calibrations
and special tests of a wide range of instruments and techniques for
accurate measurements.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Defense;
Role/responsibility: Manages the defense polar-orbiting operational
satellite program, called the Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program, which provides environmental data used for developing
graphical weather images and specialized weather products, forecasting
weather through numerical weather prediction models, and monitoring
other environmental phenomena.
Federal agency/organization: U.S. Navy;
Role/responsibility: Monitors environmental conditions that may impact
military operations in the oceans and near coastal communities;
its Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center monitors
atmospheric and oceanographic data to provide tailored global weather
forecasts and analyses on environmental conditions ranging from days
to several months in advance that may affect Navy, Marine Corps, and
other military planning and operations;
its Naval Oceanographic Office analyzes oceanographic and hydrographic
data to develop products that detail environmental conditions (e.g.,
acoustics and physics) from the ocean's floor to its surface.
Federal agency/organization: Air Force Weather Agency;
Role/responsibility: Monitors environmental conditions that may impact
military operations on land, in the air, and in space; collects,
analyzes, and predicts environmental information to provide tailored
regional and global weather forecasts and effects caused by
environmental conditions ranging from hours to several months in
advance that may affect Air Force, Army, Special Operations, and
intelligence community planning and operations.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Energy;
Role/responsibility: Conducts climate research in order to understand
how energy production and use (e.g., changes in greenhouse gas and
aerosol concentrations) may impact the global climate system. Develops
models that simulate the effects of climate change and uses field and
laboratory observations to interpret and extend the results of such
model simulations.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Health and Human Services;
Role/responsibility: Uses satellite observations to conduct research
related to environmental health and the health effects of climate
changes, including effects of ultraviolet radiation/exposure (skin,
eyes, immune system) and emerging infectious diseases.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Homeland Security/Federal
Emergency Management Agency;
Role/responsibility: Uses climate research and predictions to develop
disaster preparedness and response plans.
Federal agency/organization: Department of the Interior/U.S.
Geological Survey;
Role/responsibility: Focuses on understanding past and present climate
and their effects on landscapes, land cover and use, and ecosystems.
Manages the Landsat satellite programs in conjunction with the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Federal agency/organization: Department of State;
Role/responsibility: Contributes to and participates in international
coordination bodies, such as the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
which use U.S. climate assessments as the basis of certain findings in
their international climate assessments, and helps facilitate federal
agency coordination with international climate research efforts.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Transportation;
Role/responsibility: Conducts climate research to (1) examine the
potential impacts of climate variability and change on transportation
infrastructure and services; (2) increase energy efficiency and reduce
greenhouse gases; and (3) improve transportation-related greenhouse
gas data and modeling.
Federal agency/organization: Environmental Protection Agency;
Role/responsibility: Assesses the impacts of climate variability and
change on air quality, water quality, aquatic ecosystems, and human
health. From these assessments, it develops options for adaptation to
be considered by decision makers.
Federal agency/organization: National Aeronautics and Space
Administration/Earth Science Division;
Role/responsibility: Operates research satellites under the Earth
Observing System program. Many of these satellites provide climate
observations used by a variety of federal agencies, universities, and
nongovernmental organizations. The agency's climate mission is to
advance the state of science of the global integrated earth system,
including interactions among the global and regional atmosphere,
oceans, sea ice, lands, and ecosystems.
Federal agency/organization: National Science Foundation;
Role/responsibility: Educates the public and funds research to advance
the state of science, including understanding climate elements such as
physical, chemical, biological, and human systems and the interactions
among them.
Federal agency/organization: Smithsonian Institution;
Role/responsibility: Conducts research of atmospheric processes,
ecosystem dynamics, natural and anthropogenic environmental change,
and historical museum records/artifacts, as well as geologic records;
its research is intended to have a long-term (i.e., decadal)
perspective.
Federal agency/organization: U.S. Agency for International Development;
Role/responsibility: Uses satellite observations to provide U.S. and
foreign decision makers--both in the United States and in the
developing world--with information designed to support policy and
program interventions for effective and timely response to drought and
food insecurity.
Sources: GAO analysis of agency information from DOD, NASA, NOAA, the
U.S. Group on Earth Observations (USGEO), and the U.S. Global Change
Research Program (USGCRP).
[End of table]
Table 6: Key Federal Organizations‘ Roles for Space Weather
Observation:
Federal agency/organization: Department of Commerce/National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration;
Role/responsibility: Monitors the space weather environment and
provides operational forecasts, warnings, and alerts. Within the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Weather
Service is responsible for providing weather forecasts for the
protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national
economy. Its Space Weather Prediction Center provides forecasts and
warnings of space weather events that may impact space-based assets
such as Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites, and earth-based
assets such as the energy grid.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Defense;
Role/responsibility: Conducts space weather monitoring through the Air
Force to mitigate and minimize adverse space weather impacts on
operational readiness, mission operations, and military capabilities,
as well as to provide military planners with space situational
awareness.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Energy;
Role/responsibility: Uses observations from space weather satellites
to detect nuclear events; in addition, it uses space weather data to
examine possible impacts on electrical energy transmission (i.e., the
energy grid).
Federal agency/organization: Department of the Interior;
Role/responsibility: Provides ground-based magnetometer data
continuously from 14 observatories distributed across the United
States and its territories through the U.S. Geological Survey;
collects, transports, and disseminates these data for global-scale
monitoring of the earth's magnetic field, which can be affected by
space weather.
Federal agency/organization: Department of State;
Role/responsibility: The Department of State's Office of Space and
Advanced Technology (OES/SAT) ensures that U.S. space policies and
multilateral science activities, including space weather, support U.S.
foreign policy objectives and enhance U.S. space and technological
competitiveness. OES/SAT has primary responsibility for U.S.
representation to the United Nations' Committee on the Peaceful Uses
of Outer Space. The office also leads interagency coordination on all
civil space-related international agreements and plays a key role in
the implementation of National Space Policy focused on dual-use space
applications such as space-based positioning, navigation, and timing,
satellite-based remote sensing and earth observation, and space
weather monitoring.
Federal agency/organization: Department of Transportation;
Role/responsibility: Examines space weather impacts to navigation
(e.g., GPS) and radiation exposure at high altitudes; its Federal
Aviation Administration considers space weather impacts in optimizing
national and international aviation weather systems and services.
Federal agency/organization: National Aeronautics and Space
Administration;
Role/responsibility: Develops and manages satellite operations that
contribute to space weather observations; conducts research of the
solar-terrestrial system to improve and advance our understanding of
events and conditions in space and to develop and use new technology;
explores how solar activity may potentially impact humans in space, as
well as space-based assets such as solar research satellites like the
Advanced Composition Explorer and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory
and robotic assets that explore characteristics of other planets.
Federal agency/organization: National Science Foundation;
Role/responsibility: Conducts research to increase fundamental
understanding of space environment processes and to improve space
weather predictive capabilities.
Source: GAO analysis of agency information from the National Space
Weather Program, Air Force Weather Agency, and Space Weather
Prediction Center.
[End of table]
[End of section]
Appendix III: Federal Organizations That Participate in Interagency
Coordination Groups:
Interagency committees coordinate the interests of the multiple
federal agencies whose missions involve environmental monitoring and
research. These include the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which
coordinates federal climate research efforts; the U.S. Group on Earth
Observations, which plans for and coordinates earth observations; and
the National Space Weather Program, which coordinates federal space
weather monitoring, research, and forecasts. Table 7 identifies
federal organizations that participate in these interagency
coordination groups.
Table 7: Federal Organizations That Participate in Interagency
Coordination Groups:
Federal organizations: Agency: Department of Agriculture;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Empty].
Federal organizations: Agency: Department of Commerce;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Federal organizations: Agency: Department of Defense;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Federal organizations: Agency: Department of Energy;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Federal organizations: Agency: Department of Health and Human Services;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Empty].
Federal organizations: Agency: Department of Homeland Security;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Empty];
National Space Weather Program: [Check][A].
Federal organizations: Agency: Department of the Interior;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Federal organizations: Agency: Department of State;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Federal organizations: Agency: Department of Transportation;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Federal organizations: Agency: Environmental Protection Agency;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Empty].
Federal organizations: Agency: National Aeronautics and Space
Administration;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Federal organizations: Agency: National Science Foundation;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Federal organizations: Agency: Smithsonian Institution;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Empty].
Federal organizations: Agency: U.S. Agency for International
Development;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Empty].
Federal organizations: Agency: Executive Office of the President:
Council on Environmental Quality;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Empty];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Empty].
Federal organizations: Agency: Executive Office of the President:
Office of Management and Budget;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Federal organizations: Agency: Executive Office of the President:
Office of Science and Technology Policy;
U.S. Group on Earth Observations: [Check];
U.S. Global Change Research Program: [Check];
National Space Weather Program: [Check].
Source: GAO based on interagency group documents.
[A] Agency officials noted that they are working with Homeland
Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency to have it participate
in the National Space Weather Program.
[End of table]
[End of section]
Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Commerce:
United States Department Of Commerce:
The Secretary of Commerce:
Washington, D.C. 20230:
April 9, 2010:
Mr. David A. Powner:
Director:
Information Technology Management Issues:
U.S. Government Accountability Office:
441 G Street, NW:
Washington, DC 20548:
Dear Mr. Powner:
Thank you for the opportunity to review and comment on the Government
Accountability Office's draft report entitled "Environmental
Satellites: Strategy Needed to Sustain Critical Climate and Space
Weather Measurements" (GA0-10-456). On behalf of the Department of
Commerce, I have enclosed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's comments on the draft report.
Sincerely,
Signed by:
Gary Locke:
Enclosure:
[End of letter]
Department of Commerce:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
Comments to the Draft GAO Report Entitled "Environmental Satellites:
Strategy Needed to Sustain Critical Climate and Space Weather
Measurements" (GAO-10-456, April 2010):
General Comments:
The Department of Commerce and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) appreciate the opportunity to review this report
on environmental satellites. The report describes four ongoing
activities at the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and
Information Service: (a) the full set of National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) capabilities
removed in 2006; (b) advanced climate capabilities for Geostationary
Orbiting Environmental Satellite, Series R (GOES-R) removed in 2006;
(c) a report submitted to the Executive Office of the President, which
identifies and prioritizes near-term opportunities for environmental
observations; and (d) two reports submitted to the White House's
Office of Science and Technology Policy on how to mitigate the loss of
key satellites and instruments.
The report accurately describes the status of items (c) and (d), as
listed above. Our actions are complete. For item (a), the report
states that NOAA has not established plans for recovering capabilities
lost when NPOESS was restructured in 2006. NOAA does have a plan to
restore capabilities for the climate sensors, which was implemented in
fiscal year (FY) 2009, when NOAA began funding the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) instrument development
projects to restore the highest priority climate sensors that were
removed from NPOESS in 2006. The FY 2011 President's budget request
includes a plan for NOAA to continue restoring key climate sensors
removed from NPOESS and host the climate sensors on a NOAA satellite
program called the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). Also included
in the FY 2011 request is a plan to complete the development of the
Jason 3 satellite with NASA and our European partners and plan for a
continuity altimetry mission after Jason 3.
For item (b), the report states that NOAA has not made any plans to
restore the advanced climate capabilities of the instrument that was
removed from GOES-R. The referenced instrument is the Hyperspectral
Environmental Suite (HES), an instrument concept for measuring high-
resolution vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor and
providing images of the coastal ocean. Early GOES-R instrument concept
studies proved that the HES concept was too technically advanced to be
accommodated on the GOES-R spacecraft. NOAA will continue to evaluate
the feasibility and priority of addressing HES requirements and
determine the most appropriate methods to meet them.
In general, the report does not differentiate between gaps in existing
operational observation and delays, potential or real, in bringing new
observations into operational use. We would suggest that the term
"gap" only be utilized to describe potential loss of an existing
operational capability or established climate record.
[End of section]
Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration:
National Aeronautics and Space Administration:
Headquarters:
Washington, DC 20546-0001:
April 8, 2010:
Reply to Attn of: SMD/Strategic Integration and Management Division:
Mr. David A. Powner:
Director, Information Technology Management Issues:
U.S. Government Accountability Office:
Washington, DC 20548:
Dear Mr. Powner:
NASA appreciates the opportunity to comment on your draft report
entitled, "Environmental Satellites: Strategy Needed to Sustain
Critical Climate and Space Weather Measurements," (GA0-10-456).
While no recommendations in the report were directed to NASA, the
report contains several points that require clarification.
NASA's Earth Science Division, as described on Page 20, is responsible
for advancing the understanding of the Earth system and the science
and technology of remote sensing through its environmental research
satellites. NASA makes new measurements and creates new technologies
for measuring climate through various satellite and airborne missions,
including the Earth Observing System. With these new measurements,
NASA uncovers the mechanics and interrelationships of Earth system
processes, creates climate data records that can be extended by
subsequent research or operational satellites, and pioneers the use of
new observations in climate models to improve their assessment and
predictive capabilities. NASA's Heliophysics Division, as described on
Page 21, conducts space weather research and development activities
using research satellites. Data from these satellites are used for
Heliophysics research and are also provided to other agencies for
operational space weather forecasting.
With regards to future research satellites, as detailed on Page 11,
NASA's Earth Science Division currently has five "foundational"
missions (Glory, Aquarius, NPOESS Preparatory Project, Landsat Data
Continuity Mission (LDCM), and Global Precipitation Measurement)
scheduled for launch between 2010 and 2013. The Fiscal Year (FY) 2011
President's Budget Request includes funding for a replacement to the
Orbiting Carbon Observatory, to launch in February 2013. Of the
missions recommended by the National Research Council in its 2007
Decadal Survey, "Earth Science and Applications from Space: National
Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond," the FY2011 Budget Request
funds all Tier 1 missions to be launched in the three-year period from
late 2014 to late 2017, achieving the scientific synergies intended by
the Decadal Survey for those missions. Tier 2 missions are also
accelerated by the Budget Request, with two to be launched by the end
of 2020.
With regard to the Landsat family of satellites described on Page 20,
the Landsat program is a joint effort between NASA and the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS). NASA develops and launches the Landsat
satellites, while USGS is responsible for operating the satellites and
distributing and archiving the data. The next Landsat mission, LDCM,
is currently scheduled for launch between December 2012 and June 2013.
With regards to the future of the Landsat program, as discussed on
Page 32, in 2007, the Office of Science and Technology Policy issued a
plan for a Department of the Interior-led U.S. National Land Imaging
Program to acquire Landsat-type data beyond LDCM, but that plan has
not yet been implemented. Under this construct, future Landsat-type
satellites would be developed by NASA on a reimbursable basis, much
like the civil weather satellites.
Thank you again for the opportunity to review and comment on this
draft report. We look forward to your final report to Congress.
Sincerely,
Signed by:
Edward J. Weiler:
Associate Administrator for Science Mission Directorate:
[End of section]
Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
GAO Contact:
David A. Powner, (202) 512-9286, or pownerd@gao.gov:
Staff Acknowledgments:
In addition to the individual named above, Colleen M. Phillips,
Assistant Director; Bill Carrigg; Neil Doherty; Joshua Leiling;
Kathleen S. Lovett; Lee McCracken; and Joseph D. Thompson made key
contributions to this report.
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] During our review, the White House announced plans to restructure
the NPOESS program so that NOAA and DOD would no longer continue to
jointly procure the satellite system. The NOAA portion of this
restructured program is called the Joint Polar Satellite System
(JPSS). However, detailed plans about what the restructuring entails
and when it will occur have not yet been established. Thus, in this
report, we will continue to refer to this program as the NPOESS
program.
[2] GAO, Climate Change Adaptation: Strategic Federal Planning Could
Help Government Officials Make More Informed Decisions, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-10-113] (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 7,
2009); Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellites: With Costs Increasing
and Data Continuity at Risk, Improvements Needed in Tri-Agency
Decision Making, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-564]
(Washington, D.C.: June 17, 2009); Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellites: Acquisition is Under Way but Improvements
Needed in Management and Oversight, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-323] (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 2,
2009); Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition
Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure Climate
Data Continuity, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-899T]
(Washington, D.C.: June 19, 2008); Environmental Satellites: Polar-
orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on
Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-518] (Washington, D.C.: May 16,
2008); Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: Progress
Has Been Made, but Improvements Are Needed to Effectively Manage
Risks, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-18] (Washington,
D.C.: Oct. 23, 2007); Environmental Satellite Acquisitions: Progress
and Challenges; [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-1099T]
(Washington, D.C.: July 11, 2007); Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellites: Restructuring Is Under Way, but Challenges
and Risks Remain, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-910T]
(Washington, D.C.: June 7, 2007); Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellites: Restructuring Is Under Way, but Technical
Challenges and Risks Remain, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-07-498] (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 27,
2007); Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Cost
Increases Trigger Review and Place Program's Direction on Hold,
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-573T] (Washington,
D.C.: Mar. 30, 2006); Geostationary Operational Environmental
Satellites: Additional Action Needed to Incorporate Lessons Learned
from Other Satellite Programs, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-1129T] (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 29,
2006); Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: Steps
Remain in Incorporating Lessons Learned from Other Satellite Programs,
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-993] (Washington, D.C.:
Sept. 6, 2006); and Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellites: Technical Problems, Cost Increases, and Schedule Delays
Trigger Need for Difficult Trade-off Decisions, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-249T] (Washington, D.C.: Nov. 16,
2005).
[3] The European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological
Satellites' MetOp program is a series of three polar-orbiting
satellites dedicated to operational meteorology. The first of the
MetOp satellites was launched in 2006; others are planned to be
launched sequentially over 14 years.
[4] NASA's Earth Observing System program consists of 24 coordinated
polar-orbiting satellites designed to monitor and understand key
components of the climate system and their interactions through long-
term global observations. Many of these missions also have
international partners. Key satellites within the Earth Observing
System include the Aura satellite, which focuses on atmospheric
chemistry and composition; the Aqua satellite, which focuses on the
earth's water cycle, atmosphere, and land; and the Terra satellite,
which focuses on land, oceans, and atmosphere.
[5] In February 2010, NOAA announced that it would create a NOAA
Climate Service. However, it is not yet clear what the service's
responsibilities will include.
[6] According to agency officials, space weather warnings predict
solar activities that are expected to have an impact within minutes to
hours, while watches predict solar activities that are expected to
have impact within 24 to 72 hours, and alerts indicate activity that
has been observed or is currently ongoing.
[7] Space situational awareness is an understanding of activity that
is occurring in the space environment, including potential threats to
space exploration and national defense readiness.
[8] The Advanced Composition Explorer is well beyond its design life
and could fail at any time.
[9] USGEO also supports the Global Earth Observation System of
Systems, an international effort to share environmental data to
support decision-making in nine societal benefit areas: agriculture,
biodiversity, climate, disasters, ecosystems, energy, health, water,
and weather. According to its charter, the Global Earth Observation
System of Systems is to provide the overall conceptual and
organizational framework needed to move toward integrated global earth
observations to meet user needs.
[10] The most recent GAO reports include [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-564], [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-323], [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-518], and [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-18].
[11] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-518].
[12] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-323].
[13] During our review, the White House announced plans to restructure
the NPOESS program so that it would no longer be jointly procured.
Because detailed plans for the NOAA portion (JPSS) and DOD portion
have not been established, we focused on the NPOESS program.
[14] The program restored the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (limb)
to NPP; a Total Solar Irradiance Sensor to the first NPOESS satellite;
and the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System sensor (replacing
the Earth Radiation Budget Sensor) to NPP and the first NPOESS
satellite. In addition, both NOAA and the Navy have taken steps to
procure radar altimetry sensors to be included on other satellites.
The Space Environment Monitor replaces 5 of the 13 space weather
products that were to be provided by the Space Environmental Sensor
Suite.
[15] National Research Council, Climate Research Committee, Adequacy
of Climate Observing Systems (Washington, D.C.: 1999); National
Research Council, Space Studies Board: Committee on Earth Studies,
Issues in the Integration of Research and Operational Satellite
Systems for Climate Research: Part I. Science and Design (Washington,
D.C.: 2000).
[16] For example, see: National Research Council, Committee on a
Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Sensor Descopes and Demanifests on
the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft, Ensuring the Climate Record from the
NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: Elements of a Strategy to Recover
Measurement Capabilities Lost in Program Restructuring, (Washington,
D.C.: 2008); National Research Council, Committee on Earth Science and
Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategy for the
Future, Earth Science and Applications from Space: National
Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond (Washington, D.C.: 2007);
National Research Council, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,
From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical
Weather Prediction: Crossing the Valley of Death (Washington, D.C.:
2000).
[17] Center for Strategic and International Studies (Wigbels, Lyn
et.al.), Earth Observations and Global Change: Why? Where Are We? What
Next?: A Report of CSIS Space Initiatives (Washington, D.C.: July
2008).
[18] Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations, National Science
and Technology Council, Committee on Environment and Natural
Resources, Strategic Plan for the U.S. Integrated Earth-Observation
System (Washington, D.C.: 2005).
[19] USGEO, Observing Earth's Vital Signs, USGEO Strategic Assessment
of Earth Observations: Near-Term Gaps and Opportunities (Draft)
(Washington, D.C.: May 2009).
[20] The main antenna on the QuikScat satellite failed in November
2009, rendering it useless to forecasters. The satellite was 8 years
past its expected life span.
[21] The Landsat program is jointly managed by NASA and the U.S.
Geological Survey.
[22] In August 2007, a White House working group called the Future of
Land Imaging Interagency Working Group issued A Plan for a U.S.
National Land Imaging Program. This report recommended that the
Department of the Interior manage future Landsat programs and have
NASA develop future satellites. However, this plan has not yet been
implemented.
[23] NOAA has requested funding in fiscal year 2011 to refurbish
NASA's Deep Space Climate Observatory spacecraft to replace the
experimental Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft and has
requested funding to replace its Constellation Observing System for
Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate. DOD issued a request for
information to replace its experimental Communication/Navigation
Outage Forecasting System satellite, which is designed to sense space
weather that affects how the Global Positioning System, high-frequency
radio, and other communications devices work in low latitude areas.
[End of section]
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