Minerals Critical to Developing Future Energy Technologies, Their Availability, and Projected Demand]

Comments were presented on a self-initiated survey undertaken by GAO to identify materials implications of accelerated solar power, synthetic fuel, and energy conservation programs. The scope included minerals; raw and bulk materials; and processed, fabricated, and finished products. It focused on materials availability and supply including recycling, technological capability including substitutes, and cost in relation to the viability of these future alternative energy sources. GAO was asked to concentrate its efforts on identifying minerals critical to developing future energy technologies, their availability, and projected demand to the year 2000. To respond to the request, GAO has planned and implemented a two-phased examination. The methodology, which GAO has employed through an interagency agreement with the Department of Energy (DOE), modifies and interlinks two accepted computer models to project the demand for 26 selected nonfuel minerals in 5-year intervals to the year 2000 under DOE technology scenarios. In the interim, GAO has requested and obtained from commodity specialists the U.S. and world production and capacity projections for each of the 26 minerals. GAO is also developing data on various supply indicators such as import dependency, construction lead time, reserves and resources, and pending technological developments to assist in identifying and analyzing potential constraints or uncertainties.