Nuclear Weapons

Historically, the United States has detonated nuclear weapons to determine their safety and reliability. Since 1992, however, there has been a moratorium on testing. As a substitute for actual testing, the Department of Energy (DOE) developed the Stockpile Stewardship and Management Program in 1995. The program uses various methods, including computer modeling, to ensure weapon safety and reliability. The strategic computing initiative seeks to develop advanced computer models that will simulate nuclear explosions in three dimensions with higher resolution than previous models and with a more complete treatment of the underlying basic physics. The initiative is also developing the world's largest and fastest computers. GAO found that weak management and information processes have hampered oversight of this $5-billion initiative. For example, the initiative's strategic plan is out of date, annual plans have been prepared only sporadically, and milestones are not well defined. Moreover, the lack of information has made it difficult to determine which of the hundreds of milestones have been met, which are behind schedule, or even which are still relevant. Program cost estimates have risen substantially. Finally, significant technical challenges will have to be overcome before a computer simulation can determine, in the absence of nuclear testing, whether a weapon system will work as expected.

GAO noted that: (1) weak management and information processes hamper oversight of the strategic computing initiative; (2) although initiative managers report that many milestones have been met, the lack of comprehensive planning and progress tracking systems make assessment of the initiative's progress difficult and subjective; (3) the initiative's strategic plan is out of date, annual plans have been prepared only sporadically, and milestones are not well defined; (4) little information exists to track the initiative's progress or to compare its accomplishments with its milestones; (5) consequently, it is difficult to determine which of the hundreds of milestones have been met, which are behind schedule, or even which are still relevant, given changes in the initiative; (6) program cost estimates have increased substantially; (7) in 1995, DOE estimated that costs for the first 5 years of the initiative (fiscal year (FY) 1996 through FY 2001) would be $1.7 billion; (8) by 1999, estimated costs for that same 5-year period increased to $2.9 billion; (9) DOE estimates that the program will cost about $5.2 billion for FY 1996 through FY 2004; (10) some of the cost increases result from the shift to computer-based simulations, while some reflect weaknesses in DOE's cost estimation; (11) developing a computer simulation, or virtual test capability, that, in the absence of nuclear testing, can be used to determine whether a weapon system will perform as intended requires overcoming significant technical challenges; and (12) these challenges range from developing state-of-the-art hardware and software technologies, to integrating scientific data from weapons physics experiments, to recruiting and retaining staff with the needed technical expertise.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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