Illegal Immigration

INS Overstay Estimation Methods Need Improvement Gao ID: PEMD-95-20 September 26, 1995

Reliable and valid estimates of the number of overstays--persons who entered the United States legally as visitors but did not leave under the terms of their admissions--are important to public policy-making. Higher number of overstays might suggest, for example, the need for stricter policies or laws for issuing temporary U.S. visas to citizens of those countries whose travelers tend to overstay their visas in significant numbers. Overstay data are also needed to monitor travel from countries whose citizens are not required to obtain a U.S. tourist visa. This report examines the basis for the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) estimates of overstays and suggests ways in which estimates of immigrant overstays can be improved by INS.

GAO found that INS: (1) devised a creative approach for estimating overstays by estimating the number of uncounted departures; (2) determined that the number of uncounted departures could be estimated by using system data from countries for which it seems safe to assume there are few or no overstays; (3) applied its strategy using a global approach that requires the assumption that a single rate of system error applies to all countries worldwide; and (4) global approach provided a good starting point for estimating overstays, but INS should develop improved procedures for estimating overstays among foreign visitors arriving by air.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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