Nuclear Forensics

The detonation of a nuclear weapon or radiological dispersal device (RDD) in the United States or elsewhere would cause decision makers to immediately demand information on the nature of the device--including its design, the materials used to build it, and the materials' source--as well as the identification of the perpetrators. Technical nuclear forensics--the analysis of nuclear or radiological materials that are intercepted or the radioactive debris and prompt output signals (such as gamma rays) produced by a nuclear event--can contribute to the identification of the sources of these materials and the processes used to create them. Analytical techniques developed to determine the nature of nuclear tests can be used if terrorists were to detonate a nuclear device or RDD and radioactive debris samples were recovered (known as "postdetonation" nuclear forensics). Nuclear forensic techniques also could potentially be used to determine the origin of nuclear or radiological materials or devices seized prior to their use in a weapon (known as "predetonation" nuclear forensics). The U.S. government's predetonation nuclear forensics capabilities have been demonstrated in investigations on seized nuclear material from illicit smuggling operations. In addition, it is important to note that nuclear forensics represents a key piece of the overall effort to identify specific perpetrators of a nuclear event, in a process known as attribution. The combination of nuclear forensics conclusions, law enforcement findings (e.g., traditional forensics, such as fingerprint analysis), and intelligence information can be used to attribute an event to specific perpetrators. The departments of Defense (DOD), Energy (DOE), Homeland Security (DHS), and State (State), as well as the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the intelligence community, would play key roles in a nuclear forensics investigation. The specific roles these agencies would play were established in August 2007 through a presidential decision directive. This directive also formally established the National Technical Nuclear Forensics Center (NTNFC) within DHS's Domestic Nuclear Detection Office to coordinate planning, integration, assessment, and stewardship of the U.S. government's nuclear forensics capabilities. NTNFC has chartered a number of interagency groups to guide policy making for the National Technical Nuclear Forensics (NTNF) program and has led the development of key interagency documents such as the NTNF strategic plan. In this context, Congress asked GAO to assess the (1) challenges the U.S. government faces in developing and maintaining a comprehensive nuclear forensics capability and (2) current and future costs associated with the U.S. government's nuclear forensics efforts.

Agencies implementing the NTNF program face challenges in reducing the time needed to arrive at nuclear forensics conclusions and addressing human capital shortages in key disciplines--such as radiochemistry--needed for nuclear forensics. Agencies are working to significantly reduce the time needed to collect, transport, and analyze nuclear forensics samples after an event. For example, DOD has supported a variety of research and development efforts to make sample collection more efficient. In addition, DOE national laboratories are engaged in research and development initiatives to automate laboratory techniques used to analyze radioactive samples and to modernize aging equipment. With regard to human capital challenges, agencies lack a comprehensive interagency plan to guide their efforts. DHS has led interagency efforts to promote the development of trained nuclear forensics experts, including funding summer schools and internships. However, the agency has not fully assessed the demand for these specialists from competing areas outside the NTNF program, such as private industry. In addition, DHS-led efforts to promote radiochemistry have not been well coordinated with similar programs at DOE and NRC. To address the human capital challenges facing the program, we are recommending that DHS work with other agencies to develop a comprehensive interagency plan. According to DHS, agencies implementing the NTNF program planned to spend about $60 million and $59 million in fiscal years 2008 and 2009, respectively, but the future budgetary needs to support the program are unknown. Regarding current program costs, the projected spending total DHS provided underestimates the program's true costs because it does not include costs associated with many DOD, DOE, and State programs that are critical to supporting nuclear forensics. The long-term future budget for the NTNF program is undetermined, in part, because agencies have not developed a plan to mitigate any possible reductions in the funding streams for activities that currently pay for the infrastructure, equipment, and personnel upon which the nation's nuclear forensics capabilities depend. GAO is recommending that agencies more fully account for the amounts spent on other DOD, DOE, and State efforts that the NTNF program relies upon and take steps to mitigate potential effects of budget reductions for these efforts.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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