Unemployment Insurance
Information on Benefit Receipt Gao ID: GAO-05-291 March 17, 2005The Unemployment Insurance (UI) program, administered by the U.S. Department of Labor in partnership with states, plays a critical role in ensuring the financial security of America's workforce. Established in 1935, UI serves two primary objectives: (1) to temporarily replace a portion of earnings for workers who become unemployed through no fault of their own and (2) to help stabilize the economy during recessions by providing unemployed workers money for basic needs, which helps boost demand for goods and services. In fiscal year 2004, approximately 8.8 million workers received UI benefits, totaling $41.3 billion across all UI programs. To gain a better understanding of the UI program, we asked the following questions: (1) How many people ever receive UI benefits during their early working lives, and how many receive UI benefits more than once? and (2) Does UI benefit receipt change over time, and does receipt vary by industry or occupation?
In summary, we estimate that about 38 percent of workers born between 1957 and 1964 received UI at least once between 1979 and 2002, with almost half of these individuals receiving UI benefits more than once. Another 39 percent of this age group of workers were eligible to receive UI benefits at least once but never did so. Nine percent of all workers in this age group are estimated to have been unemployed at least once but never eligible for UI benefits, mostly because of the conditions under which they separated from their jobs, such as leaving a job to look for other employment. The remaining 15 percent were employed at least once and subsequently never unemployed. As this baby boom group aged, its members experienced fewer UI-eligible unemployment spells but were more likely to receive UI benefits during these spells. Late baby boom workers had the greatest number of UI-eligible unemployment spells around the time of the recessions of the early 1980s, when most were beginning their working careers. Over time, the number of UI-eligible unemployment spells declined. This is not surprising, given changes in the overall economy and age-related changes for individuals, such as increasing levels of education, training, work experience, and job tenure, that made their employment more stable and made them less likely to become unemployed. Although these workers had more unemployment when they were younger, higher proportions of those who became unemployed when they were older (up to age 45) received UI benefits. More specifically, at ages 18 to 20, 15 percent of those eligible received UI benefits; at ages 36 to 45, the rate of receipt was 30 percent. Regarding UI receipt by industries and occupations, we found that rates varied.
GAO-05-291, Unemployment Insurance: Information on Benefit Receipt
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Report to the Chairman, Subcommittee on Human Resources, Committee on
Ways and Means, House of Representatives:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
March 2005:
Unemployment Insurance:
Information on Benefit Receipt:
GAO-05-291:
Contents:
Letter:
Appendix I: Briefing Slides:
Appendix II: Confidence Intervals for Estimated Numbers of UI-Eligible
Spells of Unemployment and UI Receipt Spells:
Appendix III: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
GAO Contact:
GAO Acknowledgments:
Other Acknowledgments:
Related GAO Products:
Tables:
Table 1: Estimates and 95 Percent Confidence Intervals for UI-eligible
Spells of Unemployment among Workers Born between 1957 and 1964 (1979-
2002):
Table 2: Estimates and 95 Percent Confidence Intervals for UI benefit
Receipt of UI among Workers Born between 1957 and 1964 (1979-2002):
Figure:
Figure 1: UI Benefit Receipt and Estimated UI Eligibility among Workers
Born between 1957 and 1964 (1979-2002):
Abbreviations:
NLSY79: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979:
UI: Unemployment Insurance:
United States Government Accountability Office:
Washington, DC 20548:
March 17, 2005:
The Honorable Wally Herger:
Chairman:
Subcommittee on Human Resources:
Committee on Ways and Means:
House of Representatives:
Dear Mr. Chairman:
The Unemployment Insurance (UI) program, administered by the U.S.
Department of Labor in partnership with states, plays a critical role
in ensuring the financial security of America's workforce. Established
in 1935, UI serves two primary objectives: (1) to temporarily replace a
portion of earnings for workers who become unemployed through no fault
of their own and (2) to help stabilize the economy during recessions by
providing unemployed workers money for basic needs, which helps boost
demand for goods and services. In fiscal year 2004, approximately 8.8
million workers received UI benefits, totaling $41.3 billion across all
UI programs.
To gain a better understanding of the UI program, we agreed with your
office to provide information on the following questions:
1. How many people ever receive UI benefits during their early working
lives, and how many receive UI benefits more than once?
2. Does UI benefit receipt change over time, and does receipt vary by
industry or occupation?
To answer these questions, we analyzed data from the National
Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79).[Footnote 1] This survey
information offers a perspective that is not typically available from
other data sources. Spanning more than two decades (1979-2002), it
includes information from periodic interviews with a nationally
representative sample of individuals who were born between 1957 and
1964--a group we refer to as late baby boomers. Additionally, it
provides detailed information about these individuals' experiences,
including work history, UI benefit receipt, family background, and
education. This dataset allowed us to analyze a single birth cohort
over time; therefore, it does not represent the experiences of all
workers during this time period. Using the survey information, combined
with information on state UI program eligibility rules, we estimated
whether individuals were likely to have been eligible for UI benefits
following a job separation. This work was conducted from December 2003
to February 2005 in accordance with generally accepted government
auditing standards.
On February 24, 2005, we briefed your staff on the results of our work.
This report conveys the information provided during that briefing,
which is contained in appendix I.
In summary, we estimate that about 38 percent of workers born between
1957 and 1964 received UI at least once between 1979 and 2002, with
almost half of these individuals receiving UI benefits more than once
(see fig. 1). Another 39 percent of this age group of workers were
eligible to receive UI benefits at least once but never did so. Nine
percent of all workers in this age group are estimated to have been
unemployed at least once but never eligible for UI benefits, mostly
because of the conditions under which they separated from their jobs,
such as leaving a job to look for other employment. The remaining 15
percent were employed at least once and subsequently never unemployed.
Figure 1: UI Benefit Receipt and Estimated UI Eligibility among Workers
Born between 1957 and 1964 (1979-2002):
[See PDF for image]
[End of figure]
As this baby boom group aged, its members experienced fewer UI-eligible
unemployment spells but were more likely to receive UI benefits during
these spells. Late baby boom workers had the greatest number of UI-
eligible unemployment spells around the time of the recessions of the
early 1980s, when most were beginning their working careers. Over time,
the number of UI-eligible unemployment spells declined. This is not
surprising, given changes in the overall economy and age-related
changes for individuals, such as increasing levels of education,
training, work experience, and job tenure, that made their employment
more stable and made them less likely to become unemployed. Although
these workers had more unemployment when they were younger, higher
proportions of those who became unemployed when they were older (up to
age 45) received UI benefits. More specifically, at ages 18 to 20, 15
percent of those eligible received UI benefits; at ages 36 to 45, the
rate of receipt was 30 percent. Regarding UI receipt by industries and
occupations, we found that rates varied.
We provided a draft of this report to officials at the Department of
Labor for their technical review and incorporated their comments where
appropriate.
As agreed with your office, unless you publicly announce the contents
of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution of it until 30
days from its date. At that time, we will send copies of this report to
relevant congressional committees, the Secretary of Labor, and other
interested parties. We will also make copies available to others upon
request. The report will be available at no charge on GAO's Web site at
http://www.gao.gov. If you or members of your staff have any questions
about this report, please contact me at (202) 512-7215 or Gale Harris
at (202) 512-7235. Other major contributors are listed in appendix III.
Sincerely yours,
Signed by:
Sigurd R. Nilsen, Director:
Education, Workforce, and Income Security Issues:
[End of section]
Appendix I: Briefing Slides:
Unemployment Insurance: Information on Benefit Receipt:
Briefing for Staff of the House Subcommittee on Human Resources:
Committee on Ways and Means:
February 24, 2005:
Key Questions:
* How many people ever receive unemployment insurance (UI) benefits
during their early working lives, and how many receive UI benefits more
than once?
* Does UI benefit receipt change over time, and does receipt vary by
industry or occupation?
Scope and Methodology: Longitudinal Survey Offers Unique Perspective:
We analyzed data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth of 1979
(NLSY79),[NOTE 1] which:
-includes regular interviews with people from the same nationally
representative sample of 12,686, beginning in 1979 (at ages 14-22),
through 2002 (ages 37-45);
-provides detailed data on people's experiences over time, including
work history, family background, and education, offering perspective
typically not available in other data sources;
-allows for analysis over time for a single birth cohort but is not
representative of all workers during this time period.
NOTE:
[1] U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics directs and
sponsors this survey. For more information, go to
http://www.bls.gov/nls/nlsy79.htm.
Over Time, Respondents Approach Middle Age:
[See PDF for image]
Source: NLSY79 User's Guide and GAO analysis.
[End of figure]
Scope and Methodology: Estimating Eligibility for UI Benefits:
We also estimated whether individuals in this sample who were
unemployed would likely have been eligible for UI benefits.
* For each unemployment spell reported, we compared the relevant survey
data for that individual with the eligibility criteria for their state
in the year they were unemployed, as reported in the Department of
Labor's "Significant Provisions of State Unemployment Insurance Laws."
* We took steps to ensure that our estimates were reasonable, given
available data. However, because the NLSY79 did not provide all
information that would typically be available to state officials who
evaluate claims, our estimates may over-or understate who is eligible.
Unless noted, estimated percentages have sampling errors of +/-1
percentage point at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Scope and Methodology: Definitions:
Late baby boomers: NLSY79 survey respondents, all of whom were born
between 1957 and 1964, the later years of the baby boom that occurred
from 1946 to 1964.
Employed: A respondent who reported at least 1 week of employment
between 1979 and 2002.
Job separation: Any change in employment, whether voluntary,
involuntary, temporary or permanent.
Unemployed: A respondent who reported a period of at least 1 week of
unemployment, following a job separation, and who is still in the labor
force.
UI-eligible unemployment spell: A period of unemployment that met state
eligibility criteria for the relevant state and time, based on our
estimates.
Scope and Methodology: Additional Information:
We assessed the reliability of the NLSY79 dataset and found it to be
sufficiently reliable for this analysis. In doing so, we - reviewed
existing documentation and critiques of the dataset by other
researchers,
- performed electronic testing of the data, and:
-interviewed the survey coordinator at Ohio State University, which is
contracted to maintain the data.
Much of this analysis was performed under contract with Dr. Brian
McCall of the University of Minnesota.
Our work was performed from December 2003 to February 2005 in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
Summary of Results:
* Over one-third (38 percent) of workers born between 1957 and 1964
have received UI benefits at least once. Of those who received UI
benefits, 44 percent received them more than once. This represents
about 17 percent of all of the workers in this age group.
* Although these workers had more unemployment when they were younger,
higher proportions of those who became unemployed when they were older
(up to age 45) received UI benefits. Rates of benefit receipt varied
across industries and occupations.
Background:
UI Program Goals and Coverage:
* UI was established in 1935 to serve two primary objectives:
-to provide temporary wage replacement for eligible workers when they
are involuntarily unemployed, and:
-to promote a stable economy by providing an infusion of consumer
dollars during times of recession.
* Since the program began, coverage has expanded to include most wage
and salary workers.
* About 8.8 million workers received UI benefits totaling $41.3 billion
across all UI programs in fiscal year 2004.
Background:
UI Is a State-Administered Program Subject to Federal Oversight:
* UI is a system of 53 state-administered programs that are subject to
federal guidelines and oversight. [NOTE 1]
* Federal law establishes the requirements for approval of state
programs, and authorizes grants to states for program administration;
the federal government monitors state UI revenues and spending.
* States design their own programs within the guidelines of federal
law, and determine key program characteristics:
-conditions for eligibility,
-benefit levels and duration, and:
-employer tax rates and exemptions.
NOTE:
[1] This includes programs in the 50 states, the District of Columbia,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.
Background:
Unemployed Workers Must Meet Several Requirements to Be Eligible for
Benefits:
Nonmonetary eligibility.
- experienced a job loss through no fault of their own, and:
- are able, available, and actively looking for work.
Monetary eligibility:
-had wages of a particular amount or work over a specified time (base
period), and:
-have not exhausted maximum benefit within a particular benefit period.
* In addition to meeting all applicable state-defined eligibility
criteria, an eligible person must apply for benefits to receive them; U
I benefits are not provided automatically.
Background:
State Taxes on Employers Fund Most Regular UI Program Benefits:
* Regular UI benefits are funded primarily by state taxes on nonexempt
employers.
* Basic UI Extended Benefits, triggered by levels of very high
unemployment in individual states, are funded jointly with federal and
state taxes.
* Temporary extended unemployment compensation benefits are paid for
with federal revenues.
* Federal and state administrative costs are funded, in part, by
federal appropriations and grants to states. Some states supplement
federal grants with state funds.
Question 1: Over a Third of Workers Born between 1957 and 1964 Received
UI at Least Once (1979-2002):
[See PDF for image] -- graphic text:
Pie chart with 5 items.
Eligible and received UI once: 21%;
Eligible and received UI more than once: 17%;
Unemployed at least once but never eligible for UI: 9%;
Employed at least once and subsequently never unemployed: 15%;
Unemployed and eligible at least once but never received UI: 39%.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
Note: Sampling errors for these estimates were within plus or minus 1.1
percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.
[End of figure]
Question 1: Most of These Late Baby Boom Workers Had at Least One Week
of Unemployment:
[See PDF for image] --graphic text:
Pie chart with two items.
Unemployed or eligible for UI at least once: 85%;
Employed at least once and subsequently never unemployed: 15%.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
[End of figure]
* Most (85 percent) workers born between 1957 and 1964 experienced
unemployment, whether voluntary or involuntary, at least once between
1979 and 2002.
Question 1: About One-Tenth of Late Baby Boom Workers Were Never
Eligible for UI:
[See PDF for image] --graphic text:
Unemployed but never eligible for UI: 9%;
Employed at least once and subsequently never unemployed: 15%;
Unemployed or eligible for UI benefits at least once: 76%.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
[End of figure]
About one-tenth (9 percent) of workers born between 1957 and 1964 were
unemployed at least once between 1979 and 2002 but are estimated to
have never been eligible for UI benefits.
The job separations that this 9 percent experienced would not have made
them eligible for UI, such as those where workers left jobs, whether
for better jobs or for personal reasons.
Question 1: Ineligibility for UI Was Mostly for Nonmonetary Reasons,
Such as Voluntarily Quitting a Job:
All ineligible unemployment spells:
[See PDF for image]
[End of figure]
Stacked bar chart with one group of three items.
-Did not meet states' non-monetary eligibility requirements: 81%;
-Did not meet either type of requirement: 10%;
-Did not meet monetary requirements: 9%.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
Note: This analysis includes only the 45 percent of unemployment spells
occurring between 1979 and 2002 that are estimated to have not met
states' eligibility criteria in the year the unemployment spell
occurred. Percentages apply only to unemployment spells and not to
workers, who may have had more than one unemployment spell.
[End of figure]
Most (81 percent) of the unemployment spells that late baby boom
workers had between 1979 and 2002 are estimated to have been ineligible
solely for nonmonetary reasons, such as voluntarily quitting a job.
* Few (9 percent) were estimated to be ineligible solely for monetary
reasons, such as not having enough earnings.
Question 1: About Three-Quarters of Late Baby Boom Workers Were
Eligible for UI at Least Once:
[See PDF for image] --graphic text:
Pie chart with two items.
Eligible for UI benefits at least once: 76%;
Never eligible: 24%.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
[End of figure]
* About three-quarters (76 percent) of workers born between 1957 and
1964 are estimated to have been eligible for UI benefits at least once
between 1979 and 2002.
Question 1: About Half of Late Baby Boom Workers Who Were Eligible for
UI Benefits Collected Them:
Estimated UI eligibility and actual receipt from 1979 through 2002, for
workers born between 1957 and 1964:
[See PDF for image] --graphic text:
Two pie charts with two items each.
Eligible at least once: 76%;
Never eligible: 24%;
Eligible and received UI at least once: 49%;
Eligible at least once but never received UI: 51%.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
[End of figure]
Question 1: Many Unemployed Workers Do Not Apply for UI Benefits
Because of Perceived Ineligibility:
* The Employment and Training Administration and the Bureau of Labor
Statistics collaborated on two supplements to the Current Population
Survey in the late 1980s and early 1990s to explore why some unemployed
workers did not file for UI benefits and found that the most cited
reasons for not applying for benefits were:
-perceived ineligibility (over half of nonfilers) and:
-optimism about becoming employed again quickly (under 15 percent of
nonfilers).
Source: Stephen Wandner and Andrew Stettner, "Why Are Many Jobless
Workers Not Applying for Benefits?" Monthly Labor Review, June 2000,
pp. 21-33.
Question 1: Over Half of the Late Baby Boom Workers Who Received UI
Benefits Did So Only Once:
Incidence of UI benefit receipt from 1979 through 2002, for workers
born between 1957 and 1964:
[See PDF for image] -- graphic text:
Two pie charts; one with two items and another with 5 items.
Received UI: 38%;
Did not receive UI: 62%.
Received UI one time: 56%;
Twice: 23%;
3 times: 12%;
4 times: 5%;
5 or more times: 5%.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
Note: Sampling errors were within plus or minus 2 percentage points at
the 95 percent confidence interval.
[End of figure]
Question 2: UI Experiences Have Changed as Workers Age and Also Varied
by Industry and Occupation:
* As this baby boom group aged, its members experienced fewer UI-
eligible unemployment spells but were more likely to receive UI
benefits during these spells.
* The percentage of UI-eligible unemployment spells resulting in
receipt of UI benefits varied by industry and occupation.
Question 2: First-Time UI Receipt for Late Baby Boom Workers Was Most
Common at Ages 21-25:
Percent of first-time UI receipt, by age 50:
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
[End of figure]
* Workers born between 1957 and 1964 who received UI benefits between
1979 and 2002 were most likely to receive benefits for the first time
when they were in their early 20s.
Question 2: As They Aged, Late Baby Boom Workers Had Fewer UI-Eligible
Spells of Unemployment:
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data. See app. II for confidence
intervals for estimated numbers of spells in each year.
Note: Shaded bands indicate periods of recession as determined by the
National Bureau of Economic Research.
[End of figure]
* Late baby boom workers had the greatest number of UI-eligible spells
of unemployment around the time of the recession of the early 1980s,
when most were beginning their working careers.
* Over time, the number of job losses declined. This is not surprising,
given changes in the overall economy and age-related changes for
individuals, such as increasing levels of education, work experience,
and job tenure.
Question 2: Distribution of UI Receipt for Unemployed Late Baby Boom
Workers, by Age (1979 - 2002):
[See PDF for image] --graphic text:
Bar chart with six items.
Percentage of UI-eligible unemployment spells with UI receipt:
Age: Under 18: 3%;
Age: 18 to 20: 15%;
Age: 21 to 25: 26%;
Age: 26 to 30: 26%;
Age: 31 to 35: 31%;
Age: 36 to 45: 30.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
Note: Sampling errors for these estimates were within plus or minus 2.5
percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.
[End of table]
Question 2: Employment Patterns for Late Baby Boom Workers Have Changed
over Time:
* The types of jobs that workers born between 1957 and 1964 have had
has changed over the last two decades:
- Initially, higher proportions were employed in blue-collar
occupations; over time, more have become employed as professional and
technical workers and as managers.
- Initially, more were employed in the retail trade and manufacturing
sectors; now, more are in the professional and business services
sectors.
* Some of this change may be related to age-related changes for
individuals, such as increasing levels of education, training, and work
experience or to changes in the overall economy.
Rates of UI Receipt and Relative Shares of UI Receipt Spells Vary by
Industry:
* The percentages of UI-eligible spells of unemployment resulting in UI
benefit receipt between 1979 and 2002 varied by industry.
* However, the distribution of all receipt spells across industries
shows that more UI spells occurred in manufacturing, wholesale and
retail trade, and construction than in other industries.
Percentage of UI receipt spells within an industry:
[See PDF for image]
[End of figure]
Percentage of all UI receipt spells:
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
Note: Sampling errors for these estimates were within plus or minus 4.5
percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval, except mining,
which had a confidence interval of -6.2 to 6.4 percentage points.
[End of figure]
Rates of UI Receipt and Relative Shares of UI Receipt Spells Also Vary
by Occupation:
* The percentages of UI-eligible spells of unemployment resulting in UI
benefit receipt between 1979 and 2002 were highest for machine
operators and managers.
Percentage of UI receipt spells within an occupation:
[See PDF for image]
[End of figure]
The distribution of all receipt spells across occupations shows that
more UI spells occurred for machine operators, craftsmen, and clerical
and unskilled workers than for other occupational groups.
Percentage of all UI receipt spells:
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
Note: Sampling errors for these estimates were within plus or minus 4
percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.
[End of figure]
[End of section]
Appendix II: Confidence Intervals for Estimated Numbers of UI-Eligible
Spells of Unemployment and UI Receipt Spells:
Table 1: Estimates and 95 Percent Confidence Intervals for UI-Eligible
Spells of Unemployment among Workers Born between 1957 and 1964 (1979-
2002):
Number in thousands:
Year: 1979;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 2,697;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 2,368;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 3,026.
Year: 1980;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 4,809;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 4,363;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 5,255.
Year: 1981;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 4,912;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 4,476;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 5,349.
Year: 1982;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 5,930;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 5,458;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 6,403.
Year: 1983;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 5,385;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 4,923;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 5,848.
Year: 1984;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 4,476;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 4,061;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 4,891.
Year: 1985;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 4,043;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 3,639;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 4,446.
Year: 1986;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 3,442;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 3,066;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 3,818.
Year: 1987;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 2,699;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 2,357;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 3,041.
Year: 1988;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 2,351;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 2,048;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 2,653.
Year: 1989;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 2,517;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 2,199;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 2,835.
Year: 1990;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 2,475;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 2,152;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 2,798.
Year: 1991;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 2,719;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 2,365;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 3,073.
Year: 1992;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 2,839;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 2,462;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 3,215.
Year: 1993;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 2,238;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 1,909;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 2,568.
Year: 1994;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 1,857;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 1,554;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 2,161.
Year: 1995;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 1,444;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 1,171;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,718.
Year: 1996;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 1,594;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 1,301;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,887.
Year: 1997;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 1,208;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 945;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,471.
Year: 1998;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 1,295;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 1,023;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,568.
Year: 1999;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 876;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 646;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,105.
Year: 2000;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 1,066;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 816;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,316.
Year: 2001;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 1,251;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 971;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,532.
Year: 2002;
Estimated UI-eligible spells of unemployment: 750;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 547;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 954.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
[End of table]
Table 2: Estimates and 95 Percent Confidence Intervals for UI Benefit
Receipt of UI among Workers Born between 1957 and 1964 (1979-2002):
Number in thousands:
Year: 1979;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 520;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 368;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 672.
Year: 1980;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 1,135;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 905;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,365.
Year: 1981;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 1,103;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 883;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,323.
Year: 1982;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 1,563;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 1,299;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,826.
Year: 1983;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 1,091;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 865;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,316.
Year: 1984;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 1,091;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 869;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,312.
Year: 1985;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 1,060;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 834;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,285.
Year: 1986;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 915;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 709;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,121.
Year: 1987;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 184;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 93;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 275.
Year: 1988;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 518;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 358;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 678.
Year: 1989;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 605;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 427;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 782.
Year: 1990;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 741;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 526;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 956.
Year: 1991;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 870;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 646;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,094.
Year: 1992;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 826;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 597;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 1,054.
Year: 1993;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 720;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 510;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 931.
Year: 1994;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 555;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 364;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 746.
Year: 1995;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 507;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 322;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 693.
Year: 1996;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 423;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 253;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 593.
Year: 1997;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 380;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 210;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 550.
Year: 1998;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 245;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 121;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 368.
Year: 1999;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 303;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 150;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 456.
Year: 2000;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 318;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 166;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 470.
Year: 2001;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 397;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 232;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 563.
Year: 2002;
Estimated UI receipt spells: 190;
Lower bound for confidence interval: 81;
Upper bound for confidence interval: 299.
Source: GAO analysis of NLSY79 data.
[End of table]
[End of section]
Appendix III: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
GAO Contact:
Gale Harris, Assistant Director (202) 512-7235;
Regina Santucci, Analyst in Charge (202) 512-6317:
GAO Acknowledgments:
In addition to the individuals mentioned above, the following staff
members made major contributions to this report: Karyn Angulo, William
Bates, Cheri Harrington, Gene Kuehneman, Lise Levie, Edward Nannenhorn,
James Pearce, Dan Schwimer, and Shana Wallace.
Other Acknowledgments:
We contracted with Dr. Brian McCall from the University of Minnesota
for analysis of the NLSY and other technical assistance.
[End of section]
Related GAO Products:
Unemployment Insurance: Survey of State Administrators and Contacts
with Companies Promoting Tax Avoidance Practices. GAO-03-819T.
Washington, D.C.: June 19, 2003.
Unemployment Insurance: States' Use of the 2002 Reed Act Distribution.
GAO-03-496. Washington, D.C.: March 6, 2003.
Unemployment Insurance: Enhanced Focus on Program Integrity Could
Reduce Overpayments. GAO-02-820T. Washington, D.C.: June 11, 2002.
Unemployment Insurance: Increased Focus on Program Integrity Could
Reduce Billions in Overpayments. GAO-02-697. Washington, D.C.: July 12,
2002.
Unemployment Insurance: Role as Safety Net for Low-Wage Workers Is
Limited. GAO-01-181. Washington, D.C.: December 29, 2000.
FOOTNOTES
[1] U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics directs and
sponsors this survey. (For more information on the NLSY79, go to
http://www.bls.gov/nls/nlsy79.htm.) Much of the analysis was performed
under our direction through a contract with Dr. Brian McCall of the
University of Minnesota.
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