National Defense Stockpile

While the Defense Department (DOD) has tried to improve its methodology for estimating stockpile requirements, the process is limited in providing specific estimates of stockpile requirements. GAO is most concerned about the representation of uncertainty associated with goal estimates and the use of outdated data in the models. Although these shortcomings cast doubt on the specifics of DOD's proposed requirements goals, changes in the U.S. security threats, reductions in force structure, and increasing warning times indicate that cautious disposal of some material is prudent. At the same time, these factors also tend to support a temporary curtailment of uncommitted purchases until better estimates of requirements are developed. After reviewing different proposals, GAO believes that DOD can proceed with most proposed disposals until a new stockpile study is produced that incorporates updated material consumption ratios and more thorough sensitivity analyses. GAO sees no need to retain such obsolete materials as asbestos, vegetable tannins, and thorium nitrate or materials that are of an inferior grade by today's standards. GAO also suggests that DOD dispose of materials like cobalt, ferroalloys, chromium, and manganese ores after consulting with experts in other federal agencies and with producers and users.