Drug Control
Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates in Colombia Gao ID: GAO-03-319R January 8, 2003In a letter to us, Congress noted the differing coca estimates for Colombia. In subsequent discussions, we agreed to determine the (1) purposes of the Crime and Narcotics Center's (CNC) coca cultivation estimate and the Department of State's Bureau for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, the Office of Aviation's coca eradication estimate in Colombia and (2) status of actions to implement the Executive Office of the President, Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) study's recommendations.
The coca cultivation estimate prepared by CNC and the coca eradication estimate prepared the Office of Aviation in Colombia serve different purposes and cannot be readily reconciled to one another because of differences in their respective methodologies. Annually, CNC develops cultivation estimates for coca, opium poppy, and marijuana in drug-producing countries around the world. These are published each March as part of the President's determination whether to continue providing U.S. assistance to major drug-producing and -transit countries. To prepare its estimates, CNC analyzes black and white high-resolution photographs taken primarily from satellites covering a representative sample of the target country's known or suspected drug-growing areas. This allows CNC to estimate illicit drug cultivation for the entire country. In Colombia, these images are usually taken, weather permitting, between November and January of each year. Because these cultivation estimates are used by other U.S. government agencies to help determine the amount of illicit drugs available for consumption in the United States, CNC focuses on identifying fields of healthy coca plants with leaves that are suitable for processing into cocaine. As part of its support for the Colombian National Police, the Office of Aviation uses airborne digital cameras to photograph coca fields for targeting aerial spraying and, afterwards, to help estimate the number of hectares eradicated. Through computer analysis, the Office of Aviation analyzes the light reflecting off the vegetation to identify coca. The digital photos can be taken anytime weather permits and are targeted over areas where the Colombian National Police intends to conduct or has conducted aerial eradication operations. Also, because the Office of Aviation wants to identify any coca fields for aerial eradication, it includes coca seedlings and mature, damaged, and dead plants in its definition of a coca field. The June 2002 ONDCP study recommended, among other things, that CNC and the Office of Aviation reconcile their definitions of a coca field, develop an error rate for each estimate, and enhance the technologies used for developing the respective estimates. Both CNC and Office of Aviation officials said they are in the process of implementing many of these recommendations, though the Office of Aviation said that some would require additional funding. CNC noted that it would have many of the changes necessary completed in time for its 2002 coca cultivation estimate.
GAO-03-319R, Drug Control: Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates in Colombia
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January 8, 2003:
The Honorable Charles H. Taylor:
House of Representatives:
Subject: Drug Control: Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates in
Colombia:
Dear Mr. Taylor:
Colombia is the world‘s leading producer and distributor of cocaine and
a significant supplier of heroin to the United States. According to the
Department of State, Colombia provides about 90 percent of the cocaine
entering the United States and approximately two-thirds of the heroin
found on the East Coast. A key objective of the U.S. counternarcotics
strategy is to assist Colombia in its efforts to reduce the amount of
illicit drug crops being cultivated in the country. Under the
Department of State‘s Bureau for International Narcotics and Law
Enforcement Affairs, the Office of Aviation supports the Colombian
National Police‘s efforts to eradicate coca and opium poppy through
aerial eradication.[Footnote 1]
In March 2002, the Executive Office of the President, Office of
National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP), reported that coca cultivation in
Colombia increased by 25 percent between 2000 and 2001--from 136,200
hectares[Footnote 2] to 169,800 hectares--despite Colombian
eradication efforts. These estimates were prepared by the U.S. Director
of Central Intelligence, Crime and Narcotics Center (CNC).[Footnote 3]
However, U.S. Embassy in Bogotá officials questioned the reported
increase, noting that the number of hectares of coca the Office of
Aviation estimated eradicated in 2001 had increased substantially over
previous years.[Footnote 4] As the result of earlier concerns about the
coca cultivation estimates in Colombia, in November 2001, ONDCP had
initiated an evaluation of CNC and the Office of Aviation methodologies
for estimating coca cultivation and eradication, respectively. ONDCP
completed its study in June 2002 and made a number of recommendations
to improve both estimates.
In your letter to us, you noted the differing coca estimates for
Colombia. In subsequent discussions with your staff, we agreed to
determine the (1) purposes of CNC‘s coca cultivation estimate and the
Office of Aviation‘s coca eradication estimate in Colombia and (2)
status of actions to implement the ONDCP study‘s recommendations. To
address these objectives, we reviewed relevant documentation and met
with cognizant officials from ONDCP, CNC, and the Office of Aviation.
Results in Brief:
The coca cultivation estimate prepared by CNC and the coca eradication
estimate prepared the Office of Aviation in Colombia serve different
purposes and cannot be readily reconciled to one another because of
differences in their respective methodologies.
˛ Annually, CNC develops cultivation estimates for coca, opium poppy,
and marijuana in drug-producing countries around the world. These are
published each March as part of the President‘s determination whether
to continue providing U.S. assistance to major drug-producing and -
transit countries. To prepare its estimates, CNC analyzes black and
white high-resolution photographs taken primarily from satellites
covering a representative sample of the target country‘s known or
suspected drug-growing areas. This allows CNC to estimate illicit drug
cultivation for the entire country. In Colombia, these images are
usually taken, weather permitting, between November and January of each
year. Because these cultivation estimates are used by other U.S.
government agencies to help determine the amount of illicit drugs
available for consumption in the United States, CNC focuses on
identifying fields of healthy coca plants with leaves that are suitable
for processing into cocaine.
˛ As part of its support for the Colombian National Police, the Office
of Aviation uses airborne digital cameras to photograph coca fields for
targeting aerial spraying and, afterwards, to help estimate the number
of hectares eradicated. Through computer analysis, the Office of
Aviation analyzes the light reflecting off the vegetation to identify
coca. The digital photos can be taken anytime weather permits and are
targeted over areas where the Colombian National Police intends to
conduct or has conducted aerial eradication operations. Also, because
the Office of Aviation wants to identify any coca fields for aerial
eradication, it includes coca seedlings and mature, damaged, and dead
plants in its definition of a coca field.
The June 2002 ONDCP study recommended, among other things, that CNC and
the Office of Aviation reconcile their definitions of a coca field,
develop an error rate for each estimate, and enhance the technologies
used for developing the respective estimates. Both CNC and Office of
Aviation officials said they are in the process of implementing many of
these recommendations, though the Office of Aviation said that some
would require additional funding. CNC noted that it would have many of
the changes necessary completed in time for its 2002 coca cultivation
estimate. As a result of CNC‘s and the Office of Aviation‘s continuing
efforts to address ONDCP‘s concerns, we are not making any
recommendations at this time.
Background:
Recognizing the seriousness of illegal drug activities in Colombia, the
Colombian government, in October 1999, announced a $7.5 billion
counternarcotics plan known as Plan Colombia. Among other things, Plan
Colombia proposed to reduce the cultivation, processing, and
distribution of illicit narcotics by 50 percent over 6 years. Achieving
this goal included undertaking a substantially increased aerial
eradication program in the primary coca-growing regions of Colombia. In
July 2000, the United States provided about $1.3 billion to Colombia,
other Andean countries, and U.S. agencies involved in drug interdiction
and law enforcement. In fiscal year 2002, the United States provided
Colombia more than $550 million for counternarcotics-related
activities; for fiscal year 2003, the administration has requested
about $670 million in additional assistance to address many of these
same purposes.
With the large infusions of counternarcotics funding into Colombia,
officials at the U.S. Embassy in Bogotá expected to demonstrate
progress in reducing the amount of coca being cultivated in Colombia.
However, as the following table indicates, CNC‘s 2001 estimate showed
an increase in coca cultivation of almost 25 percent.[Footnote 5] As
noted by the embassy, the CNC estimated increase occurred despite the
number of hectares estimated eradicated (per year) increasing
substantially in 2001 compared with recent prior years.
Table 1: Hectares of Coca Estimated under Cultivation and Eradicated in
Colombia, 1998-2001:
: Crime and Narc; : otics Center; : Office of Aviation.
Year; Hectares under cultivation; Percent increase; Hectares
eradicated.
1998; Hectares under cultivation; 101,800; Percent increase; 28;
Hectares eradicated; 49,641.
1999; Hectares under cultivation; 122,500; Percent increase; 20;
Hectares eradicated; 39,113.
2000; Hectares under cultivation; 136,200; Percent increase;
Percent
increase; 11; Hectares eradicated; 42,283.
2001; Hectares under cultivation; 169,800; Percent increase; 25;
Hectares eradicated; 77,165.
[End of table]
Source: CNC figures are from its report titled Latin American Narcotics
Cultivation and Production, Estimates 2001 (Washington, D.C.: March
2002). The Office of Aviation figures were provided by its headquarters
office at Patrick Air Force Base, Florida.
In March 2002, the U.S. Embassy in Bogotá stated that the CNC estimates
were ’very wide of the mark and the apparent result of years of chronic
underestimation of the amount of coca being cultivated in
Colombia.“[Footnote 6] According to the embassy, CNC did not account
for significant aerial eradication operations that occurred in southern
Colombia during late 2001.[Footnote 7] CNC officials said that CNC
alerted its customers that the 2001 annual estimate did not reflect the
eradication activity. In addition, when CNC‘s coca cultivation
estimates for Colombia were publicly released, ONDCP noted that any
coca killed by aerial eradication operations conducted after CNC‘s
satellite imagery was taken was not accounted for.[Footnote 8]
Purposes of Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates:
CNC and the Office of Aviation have very different purposes in
developing their respective estimates for coca cultivation and
eradication. CNC‘s primary purpose is to determine how much coca, on an
annual basis, is available for processing into cocaine. The Office of
Aviation‘s primary purpose is to identify coca fields for aerial
eradication and then to assess the effectiveness of the spray
operations. The technologies used reflect these differences. CNC
obtains most of its information through satellites and uses a random
sampling technique to estimate coca cultivation countrywide. The Office
of Aviation uses aircraft mounted multi-spectral[Footnote 9] digital
cameras to photograph designated areas suspected of coca cultivation.
CNC‘s Coca Cultivation Estimates:
The Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as amended, requires that for major
drug-producing and -transit countries to receive U.S. assistance, the
President must annually certify that they are cooperating with the
United States to reduce the production and flow of illegal drugs into
the United States.[Footnote 10] In March of each year, as part of the
certification process, the State Department publishes the International
Narcotics Control Strategy Report that describes the major
drug-producing and -transit countries‘ counternarcotics efforts and,
among other things, reports the amount of illicit narcotics being
cultivated based on CNC estimates.
CNC has been involved in estimating crop cultivation for more than 30
years. In the late 1960s, it began developing imagery-based statistical
techniques that, by the 1970s, were used to estimate grain production
in the Soviet Union. In 1985, CNC began using these techniques to
estimate coca cultivation and, by 1990, it used them to develop
worldwide illicit crop estimates. CNC‘s annual cultivation estimates
are designed to provide U.S. decision makers an estimate of the amount
of illicit drugs being cultivated worldwide and serve as the basis for
estimating the amount of illicit narcotics available for consumption in
the United States. CNC‘s estimates are not designed to quantify or
account for activities such as eradication or replanting that may take
place throughout the year.
In preparing its Colombian estimate, CNC develops a statistical sample
of known and suspected coca-growing areas. CNC relies primarily on
high-resolution satellite imagery of these areas, but also uses
commercial satellite imagery and aerial photographs. CNC selects
targets to analyze based on prior history and information from other
sources, including the Office of Aviation and the Department of
Defense. The satellite imagery is black and white photographs that are
usually taken, weather permitting, in November through January each
year to allow time for them to be analyzed and the results incorporated
into the annual March report. Because CNC‘s coca cultivation estimates
are used to help determine the amount of cocaine available for
consumption in the United States, CNC focuses on identifying healthy
coca plants with leaves that are suitable for harvesting and processing
into cocaine.
The Office of Aviation‘s Coca Eradication Estimates:
Under Section 481 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as
amended,[Footnote 11] the State Department provides assistance to
various drug-producing and -transit countries to support their efforts
in reducing drug-trafficking, production, and related:
activities. As part of this assistance, the Office of Aviation has
supported the Colombian National Police in conducting aerial
eradication missions since 1995.
In 1998, the Office of Aviation began using two airborne multi-spectral
high-resolution digital cameras to photograph and locate coca fields in
Colombia. Through sophisticated computer analysis of the light
reflecting off the ground vegetation, the Office of Aviation is able to
identify suspected coca fields for planning spray missions. After the
fields have been sprayed, the targeted areas are often photographed
again to help the Office of Aviation estimate how much of the coca has
been eradicated.[Footnote 12] The Office of Aviation also applies an
effectiveness factor or ’kill rate“ to the fields sprayed to estimate
how much coca was eradicated.[Footnote 13] In identifying coca fields,
the Office of Aviation includes coca seedlings, mature coca, coca that
may be dying or dead because of spray operations, and unkempt coca
(fields of irregular size and shape not neatly maintained).
The ONDCP Study:
In November 2001, ONDCP initiated an evaluation of CNC‘s methodology
for estimating coca cultivation and the Office of Aviation‘s
methodology for identifying coca fields and estimating the amount of
coca being eradicated through its aerial eradication program. ONDCP
completed its study in June 2002 and made numerous recommendations to
improve the estimates developed by CNC and the Office of
Aviation.[Footnote 14]
As reported in the ONDCP study, CNC compared its analysis of coca
fields in a predefined area of southern Colombia with the Office of
Aviation‘s analysis of the same area. The results highlighted the
dramatic differences in the two approaches. Out of 764 coca fields in
the designated area, CNC and the Office of Aviation differed on the
identification of 603 of the fields or about 79 percent. The
discrepancy was largely based on differences in definition of what
should be counted as a coca field. According to the ONDCP team, the CNC
definition was ’very conservative“ and only classified a field as coca
’when the field is active and contains only coca.“ According to the
team, this likely led to undercounting. The Office of Aviation used a
’liberal“ definition of coca fields that includes coca seedlings and
mature plants, as well as coca that is damaged or dead. As a result,
the team concluded that the Office of Aviation tended to overcount
coca.
The ONDCP team also reported that neither CNC nor the Office of
Aviation had adopted a statistically rigorous accuracy assessment,
commonly known as an error:
rate, for their respective methodologies. Based on available data, the
ONDCP team could not determine the statistical accuracy associated with
either the cultivation or eradication estimates.
Additionally, the ONDCP team reported that the technologies used by CNC
and the Office of Aviation were insufficient for the purposes they were
being used. For example, CNC‘s technology does not allow it to account
for image distortions or changes in terrain and the
atmosphere,[Footnote 15] and the Office of Aviation‘s technology does
not allow it to accurately account for not only coca that may be
present, but also other vegetation that, according to the ONDCP team,
should be separately identified.
The ONDCP team made nearly 20 recommendations to improve the estimates
developed by CNC and the Office of Aviation. Overall, the team
recommended that CNC and the Office of Aviation:
˛ agree on definitions of what constitutes a coca field and the various
types of other vegetation that may be present,
˛ conduct quantitative accuracy assessments, and:
˛ improve their respective methodologies to take advantage of state-of-
the-art advancements in the respective technologies used.
According to CNC and Office of Aviation officials, many of the
recommendations are in the process of being implemented. CNC officials
told us they plan to implement all of the recommendations pertaining to
CNC and have contracted with one of the ONDCP team members to help. CNC
expects to have many of the recommended changes in place for its 2002
analysis (for release in March 2003). Officials from the Office of
Aviation said some of the recommendations pertaining to it would
probably not be fully implemented in the foreseeable future because of
insufficient funding. For example, upgrading its technology to identify
more types of vegetation will not be undertaken at this time because of
the expense involved. A meeting between CNC and Office of Aviation
officials to discuss recommendations affecting both organizations--
such as coca field definitions--is planned for early 2003.[Footnote 16]
Agency Comments:
The Department of State provided written comments on a draft of this
report (see appendix). State noted that we provide a useful description
of the differences and limitations of measuring aspects of illegal drug
cultivation in Colombia. State also commented that this is an extremely
important issue that directly affects U.S. drug policies, programs, and
budgets. It went on to elaborate on some of the limitations associated
with estimating coca cultivation and production.
In addition, ONDCP, CNC, and Office of Aviation officials provided
technical comments that we have incorporated into this report, as
appropriate.
Scope and Methodology:
To determine the purposes of the Colombian coca estimates prepared by
CNC and the Office of Aviation and the status of the ONDCP team‘s
recommendations, we reviewed relevant documentation and met with
cognizant officials at ONDCP and CNC in Washington, D.C., and at the
Office of Aviation headquarters at Patrick Air Force Base, Florida. In
connection with other work, we also traveled to Colombia and discussed
the coca cultivation and eradication estimates with the Narcotics
Affairs Section at the U.S. Embassy in Bogotá.
Our review was conducted from April through December 2002 in accordance
with generally accepted government auditing standards.
- - - - -:
We are sending copies of this report to appropriate congressional
committees, the Secretary of State, the Director of Central
Intelligence, and the Director of ONDCP. We will also make copies
available to others upon request. In addition, this report will be
available at no charge on our Web site at http://www.gao.gov.
If you or your staff have any questions concerning this report, please
contact me at (202) 512-4268 or Al Huntington, Assistant Director, at
(202) 512-4140. Other key contributors to this report were Allen
Fleener and Ronald Hughes.
Sincerely yours,
Jess T. Ford, Director:
International Affairs and Trade:
Comments From the Department of State:
Signed by Jess T. Ford:
(320115):
APPENDIX:
United States Department of State Washington, D. C. 20520:
JAN 6 2003:
Dear Ms. Westin:
We appreciate the opportunity to review your draft report, ’DRUG
CONTROL: Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates in Columbia,“ GAO-
03-319R, GAO Job Code 320115.
The enclosed Department of State comments are provided for
incorporation with this letter as an appendix to the final report.
If you have any questions concerning this response, please contact
Rogers Woolfolk, Aviation Advisor, Office of Aviation, Bureau of
International Narcotics and Law at (202) 776-8704.
Sincerely,
Christopher B. Burnham:
Assistant Secretary and Chief Financial Officer:
Signed by Christopher B. Burnham:
Enclosure:
As stated.
cc: GAO/IAT - Al Huntington State/OIG - Mr. Berman State/INL/LP - Mr.
Thomas Martin:
Ms. Susan S. Westin, Managing Director, International Affairs and
Trade, U.S. General Accounting Office.
Department of State Comments on GAO Draft Report:
DRUG CONTROL: Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates in Colombia
(GAO-03-319R, GAO Code 320115):
The Department of State considered the GAO report ’Drug Control: Coca
Cultivation and Eradication Estimates in Colombia“ a useful evaluation
of the differences and limitations among the different mechanisms
measuring aspects of illegal drug cultivation in Colombia. This is an
extremely important issue for the Department of State, one that
directly affects US drug policies, programs and budgets. We appreciate
the opportunity to comment on this report.
The Department of State notes that the annual CNC coca cultivation and
cocaine potential production estimates are often considered the
official yearly benchmark for US counter-drug programs. As noted in the
report, the CNC data collection method does not allow analysis based on
the condition of the coca plant - whether it is dying because of spray
or newly replanted following eradication.
The health of the coca plant and whether it has been recently replanted
are significant distinctions. Eradicated fields that are not replanted
represent a permanent full production loss. Those sprayed fields that
are replanted also suffer major yearly production losses. Mature coca
fields are capable of roughly 4 to 5 harvests a year (depending on type
of coca plant and local climate). Fields replanted with 1-yr-old
seedlings can, at best, be harvested at the end of 9 to 12 months -
producing only about 20 percent of a full harvest during its first
year. Fields that are reseeded will take up to 2 years to yield their
first coca leaf harvest. As calculated, the CNC estimates of coca
cultivation do not reflect any reduction of productivity of coca which
results from replanting of eradicated fields. This in turn could lead
to a substantial overestimate of total coca production.
The Colombia spray eradication program is designed to inflict
significant
economic damage to both the farming and refining segments of the
cocaine
industry long enough to force both to dramatically reduce cocaine
production
in the medium term and face bankruptcy in the long term. With the vast
spraying undertaken (nearly 130,000 hectares of coca in 2002 and up to
200,000
hectares planned for 2003) eradication has become the single greatest
factor in
our war against Colombian cocaine.
we recognize that both coca farmers and the cocaine industry are able
and willing to absorb major losses in production for a short period
(perhaps for as much as 2-3 years), while still keeping up the area
under cultivation and supply the world market with drugs. Until the
eradication program operates successfully long enough to exhaust their
ability to absorb losses and use up product and financial reserves, it
is likely that there will not be significant reduction to the acreage
of coca cultivation (which can be replanted almost immediately
following successful spray eradication).
[End of Section]
FOOTNOTES
[1] The leaves of the coca plant are the raw ingredient of cocaine and
opium poppy is used to produce heroin. The plants are sprayed from low-
flying airplanes with an herbicide that attacks the root system.
[2] A hectare is 2.47 acres.
[3] CNC‘s estimates are presented in its report titled Latin American
Narcotics Cultivation and Production, Estimates 2001 (Washington, D.C.:
March 2002).
[4] At about the same time, the government of Colombia‘s coca
cultivation estimate for the same period showed a net decrease of 11
percent. The Colombian government numbers are from the United Nations‘
Drug Control Program‘s report Colombia: Annual Coca Cultivation Survey
2001 (Bogotá: March 2002).
[5] According to CNC, slightly more than 33 percent of the increase was
the addition of a growing area not previously included. The increase in
the ’traditional“ growing areas was 16 percent.
[6] U.S. Embassy, Bogotá cable 2020, March 4, 2002.
[7] CNC officials noted, however, that CNC had concluded that coca
cultivation in southern Colombia was reduced 22 percent by aerial
eradication operations that took place the prior year between
December 19, 2000, and February 5, 2001.
[8] According to Office of Aviation officials, it may take 45 days or
more for coca plants to show the effects of aerial eradication. Most of
the imagery CNC analyzed for its 2001 estimate was taken before or less
than 45 days after the major aerial eradication effort in southern
Colombia and would not likely have shown the effects of the spraying.
[9] The multi-spectral cameras the Office of Aviation uses allow it to
examine three different light-band settings.
[10] 22 U.S.C. 2291j. Alternatively, the President may certify that
vital U.S. national interests require that assistance be provided.
[11] 22 U.S.C. 2291.
[12] Selected fields are also visually examined either by flying low
over the field in helicopters or, occasionally, by landing and more
closely inspecting the plants.
[13] Based on prior experience, the Office of Aviation estimates that
87 percent of the coca sprayed eventually dies, but the ONDCP team
questioned this effectiveness factor.
[14] ONDCP contracted with four experts in imagery and remote sensing.
For purposes of this report, we refer to them as the ONDCP team. Its
final report was titled Methodological and Technological Evaluation -
Assessing Coca Cultivation and Eradication Impact in Colombia (Putumayo
Region) (Washington, D.C.: June 11, 2002).
[15] CNC pointed out that the distortions do not present too much of a
problem when the images are visually interpreted. However, CNC is
upgrading its technology to correct for these distortions in 2002 as it
moves toward a digital imaging system.
[16] An October 2002 meeting was canceled because of scheduling
conflicts.
