Mass Transit

In making crucial policy and funding decisions on the future role of public transit, Congress needs the best information available about how states and localities intend to use transit to increase mobility, reduce traffic congestion, improve air quality, and spur economic development. Congress has received four projections of overall transit needs since 1988. Two estimates came from the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) while two nonprofit associations representing state transportation and transit interests each prepared one projection. These projections varied widely--from $3 billion to $32 billion per year--because each used different cost elements and made different assumptions in calculating costs. Several factors, including legislation such as the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, the Americans With Disabilities Act, and the Energy Policy Act of 1992, could cause future transit needs to exceed all of the needs projections. FTA needs to make several short- and long-term changes to improve its transit needs projections. New planning requirements for state and local transit plans could become the basis for a nationwide estimate of transit needs. Although these data are not now being collected, the Department of Transportation has an opportunity to facilitate future data availability. GAO summarized this report in testimony before Congress; see: Mass Transit: FTA's Projections Could Better Reflect State and Local Needs, by Kenneth M. Mead, Director of Transportation Issues, before the Subcommittee on Transportation, Senate Committee on Appropriations. GAO/T-RCED-93-17, Mar. 11, 1993 (12 pages).

GAO found that: (1) FTA and the two associations' use of different definitions of transit needs resulted in projections varying from $3 billion to nearly $32 billion annually; (2) unlike the associations, FTA did not include transit systems' largest expense category, operating costs, in its projections, resulting in its greatly underestimating future transit needs; (3) operations cost estimates ranged from $0 to $16.2 billion; (4) each organization included capital expansion in its projections, but each used different approaches to calculate the costs, resulting in estimates of $2 billion to over $5 billion annually for capital expansion costs; (5) all organizations calculated costs for maintaining existing equipment and facilities, but each used different methods to calculate the costs, with some methods underestimating replacement needs; (6) none of the organizations calculated the costs of all transit needs related to transit goals or legislative requirements, partly because some laws had not been enacted at the time the projections were issued; (7) future operation costs could increase for a variety of reasons, but service may be reduced due to a lack of operating funds; and (8) the Department of Transportation (DOT) may be able to collect improved data on future transit investments and system conditions due to legislative requirements that states prepare transportation plans and improvement programs, and the establishment of a Bureau of Transportation Statistics and state transportation management systems.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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