Weather Forecasting

The National Weather Service's (NWS) $351 million Automated Surface Observing System is intended to automate the observation and dissemination of data on temperature and dew point, visibility, wind direction and speed, pressure, clouds, and precipitation. However, the system has not met all of its specified requirements, and it does not provide capabilities that some users say are critical to ensuring safe aviation, effective weather-related decisions, and accurate climatological analysis. NWS has steps under way to correct shortfalls in meeting specifications and is addressing other user concerns. However, because of the volume and severity of these problems, NWS temporarily halted further system commissionings and has delayed the release of human weather observers. Further, NWS has not determined the full range of problems that it will address or how much the system enhancements will cost. Moreover, it has yet to establish explicit, user-based system performance and cost/benefit criteria for releasing observers. Until NWS does so, it runs the risk of spending money on a system that may not be cost-effective and providing weather observations that could impair important public safety and environmental decisions.

GAO found that: (1) six of the eight sensors in the ASOS system do not meet key performance specifications; (2) ASOS shortfalls are caused by contractor failure to deliver products that meet specifications and government failure to furnish sufficient equipment; (3) ASOS reliability problems surfaced after deployment because NWS did not perform reliability testing prior to deployment; (4) NWS does not have adequate personnel or integrated information systems for it to isolate and correct ASOS failures at Federal Aviation Administration sites; (5) ASOS does not satisfy the weather observation needs of many users; (6) ASOS users state that incorrect ASOS observations could risk aviation efficiency and safety, and skew national climate research; (7) in March 1995, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) resumed the commissioning of observers on the basis of expected system and equipment improvements; (8) although NWS has recently begun to recognize user needs that go beyond ASOS specifications, it has not yet determined how it will enhance or supplement ASOS to address user needs; (9) NWS cannot reliably assess whether system enhancements will continue to be cost beneficial without a complete cost estimate; (10) ASOS problems have delayed NWS plans for releasing human weather observers; and (11) although ASOS officials stated that user needs will be met before observers are released, NWS does not have a strategy to ensure that the information needs of all users will be met.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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