Federal Aviation Administration
Plan Still Needed to Meet Challenges to Effectively Managing Air Traffic Controller Workforce Gao ID: GAO-04-887T June 15, 2004In the summer of 2000, the air traffic control system lacked the capacity to handle demand efficiently, and flight delays produced near-gridlock conditions at several U.S. airports. A combination of factors, including the crises instigated by the events of 9/11, temporarily reduced air traffic, but air traffic is now back to near pre-9/11 levels. The ability of the air traffic control system to handle expected traffic in coming years may depend in part on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) effectiveness in planning for a long-expected wave of air traffic controller retirements. GAO's testimony focuses on (1) the magnitude and timing of the pending wave of air traffic controller retirements, (2) the challenges FAA faces in ensuring that well-qualified air traffic controllers are ready to step into the gap created by the expected large number of retirements, and (3) challenges that will affect the ability of the air traffic controller workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of airspace. GAO's statement is based on past reports on the air traffic controller workforce, including GAO's 2002 report that surveyed controllers and analyzed controller workforce data. GAO has updated this work through interviews with and the collection of data from key stakeholders in the aviation community. This work was performed in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
FAA faces a bow wave of thousands of air traffic controller retirements over the coming decade. GAO's 2002 report warned that almost half of the controller workforce (about 7,000 controllers) would retire over the next 10 years and about 93 percent of controller supervisors would be eligible to retire by the end of 2011. In addition, GAO's analysis showed that retirements could increase dramatically at the busiest air traffic control facilities. FAA and the Department of Transportation's Inspector General have also reported that a surge in controller retirements is on the way. FAA faces numerous hiring and training challenges to ensuring that wellqualified controllers are ready to fill the gap created by the expected retirements. For example, it can take 2-4 years or more to certify new controllers, and FAA's training facility and air traffic control facilities, where years of on-the-job training occur, have limited capacity. While FAA must make hiring decisions from a long-term perspective, it has generally hired replacements only after a current controller leaves. In 2002, GAO recommended that FAA develop a comprehensive workforce plan to deal with these challenges. However, FAA has not finalized a plan, and its recent actions call into question whether it has adequate strategies to address these challenges. For example, since the beginning of this year, FAA lost nearly 400 controllers and has hired only 1 new controller. Its fiscal year 2005 budget proposal does not request any funding to hire additional controllers. Challenges will also affect the ability of the air traffic controller workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of airspace. Challenges include the need for FAA to overcome management problems with acquiring systems to modernize the air traffic control system and to adjust to shifts in the use of airspace, including increases in the use of smaller aircraft and changes in air traffic patterns around the country.
GAO-04-887T, Federal Aviation Administration: Plan Still Needed to Meet Challenges to Effectively Managing Air Traffic Controller Workforce
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Testimony:
Before the Subcommittee on Aviation, House Committee on Transportation
and Infrastructure:
United States General Accounting Office:
GAO:
For Release on Delivery Expected at 10:30 a.m. EDT:
Tuesday, June 15, 2004:
Federal Aviation Administration:
Plan Still Needed to Meet Challenges to Effectively Managing Air
Traffic Controller Workforce:
Statement of JayEtta Z. Hecker, Director, Physical Infrastructure Team:
GAO-04-887T:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-04-887T, a testimony before the Subcommittee on
Aviation, House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure
Why GAO Did This Study:
In the summer of 2000, the air traffic control system lacked the
capacity to handle demand efficiently, and flight delays produced near-
gridlock conditions at several U.S. airports. A combination of factors,
including the crises instigated by the events of 9/11, temporarily
reduced air traffic, but air traffic is now back to near pre-9/11
levels. The ability of the air traffic control system to handle
expected traffic in coming years may depend in part on the Federal
Aviation Administration‘s (FAA) effectiveness in planning for a long-
expected wave of air traffic controller retirements.
GAO‘s testimony focuses on (1) the magnitude and timing of the pending
wave of air traffic controller retirements, (2) the challenges FAA
faces in ensuring that well-qualified air traffic controllers are ready
to step into the gap created by the expected large number of
retirements, and (3) challenges that will affect the ability of the air
traffic controller workforce to meet future changes in the airline
industry and use of airspace. GAO‘s statement is based on past reports
on the air traffic controller workforce, including GAO‘s 2002 report
that surveyed controllers and analyzed controller workforce data. GAO
has updated this work through interviews with and the collection of
data from key stakeholders in the aviation community. This work was
performed in accordance with generally accepted government auditing
standards.
What GAO Found:
FAA faces a bow wave of thousands of air traffic controller retirements
over the coming decade. GAO‘s 2002 report warned that almost half of
the controller workforce (about 7,000 controllers) would retire over
the next 10 years and about 93 percent of controller supervisors would
be eligible to retire by the end of 2011. In addition, GAO‘s analysis
showed that retirements could increase dramatically at the busiest air
traffic control facilities. FAA and the Department of Transportation‘s
Inspector General have also reported that a surge in controller
retirements is on the way.
Past and Projected Air Traffic Controller Retirement Eligibility, by
Fiscal Year (2002 Report):
[See PDF for image]
[End of figure]
FAA faces numerous hiring and training challenges to ensuring that
well-qualified controllers are ready to fill the gap created by the
expected retirements. For example, it can take 2-4 years or more to
certify new controllers, and FAA‘s training facility and air traffic
control facilities, where years of on-the-job training occur, have
limited capacity. While FAA must make hiring decisions from a long-term
perspective, it has generally hired replacements only after a current
controller leaves. In 2002, GAO recommended that FAA develop a
comprehensive workforce plan to deal with these challenges. However,
FAA has not finalized a plan, and its recent actions call into question
whether it has adequate strategies to address these challenges. For
example, since the beginning of this year, FAA lost nearly 400
controllers and has hired only 1 new controller. Its fiscal year 2005
budget proposal does not request any funding to hire additional
controllers.
Challenges will also affect the ability of the air traffic controller
workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of
airspace. Challenges include the need for FAA to overcome management
problems with acquiring systems to modernize the air traffic control
system and to adjust to shifts in the use of airspace, including
increases in the use of smaller aircraft and changes in air traffic
patterns around the country.
What GAO Recommends:
www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO 04-887T.
To view the full testimony, click on the link above. For more
information, contact JayEtta Hecker, (202) 512-2834 or heckerj@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:
We appreciate the opportunity to participate in today's hearing on the
challenges the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) faces in
effectively managing its air traffic controller workforce: in
particular, challenges in planning effectively to address the large
number of controller retirements expected over the next decade in order
to help avoid any related disruptions to air travel. We all recall that
in the summer of 2000, the air traffic control system lacked the
capacity to handle demand efficiently, and flight delays produced near-
gridlock conditions at several U.S. airports. A combination of factors-
-the downturn in travel caused by the general economic slowdown and of
course the crises instigated by the events of 9/11--temporarily reduced
traffic significantly and reduced pressure on the air traffic control
system--but air traffic is now back to near pre 9/11 levels.
The ability of the air traffic control system to handle expected
traffic in coming years, including the status of FAA's preparations for
handling the long-expected wave of air traffic controller retirements,
has again become a pressing issue. Air traffic controllers play an
integral role in maintaining the safety and efficiency of the nation's
air traffic control system, and ensuring an appropriately sized and
trained workforce is of high importance. We applaud the subcommittee's
focus on this critical issue and seek to contribute to the discussion
by focusing on the following three topics: (1) the magnitude and timing
of the pending wave of air traffic controller retirements, (2)
challenges FAA faces in ensuring that well-qualified air traffic
controllers are ready to step into the gap created by the expected
large number of retirements, and (3) challenges that will affect the
ability of the air traffic controller workforce to meet future changes
in the airline industry and use of airspace.
Our statement is based on our past reports in three areas: the air
traffic controller workforce, including our 2002 report in which we
surveyed controllers and analyzed controller workforce data;[Footnote
1] air traffic control modernization; and airline competition. We have
updated this work through interviews with and collection of data from
key stakeholders in the aviation community, including several current
and former senior FAA officials. We performed our work in accordance
with generally accepted government auditing standards.
In summary, Mr. Chairman, we found that:
* FAA faces a bow wave of thousands of air traffic controller
retirements over the coming decade. Our 2002 report warned that almost
half of the controller workforce (about 7,000 controllers) would retire
over the next 10 years and that FAA estimated it would experience
retirements of controllers at a level 3 times higher than that
experienced over the 5-year period from 1996-2000. On top of the
substantial retirements, at the time, FAA also projected that an
additional 2,000 controllers would be needed by 2010 to address
forecasted increases in demand for air travel. We also found that about
93 percent of the 1,862 controller supervisors would be eligible to
retire by the end of 2011, which could exacerbate the problem of
maintaining adequate controller staffing. In addition, our analysis
showed that the busiest terminal facilities and the "en route" centers,
used to manage aircraft beyond a 50-nautical-mile radius from airports,
would experience a sizable increase in controllers reaching retirement
eligibility. FAA and the Department of Transportation Inspector General
have also reported that a surge in controller retirements is on the
way; the question is - Will FAA be ready for it?
* FAA faces numerous challenges related to ensuring that well-qualified
controllers are ready to step into the gap created by the expected wave
of retirements but it has not implemented strategies to meet them. Key
among these challenges is efficiently hiring and training new
controllers in numbers large enough to meet anticipated shortfalls. For
example, since it takes 2-4 years and sometimes longer for a newly
hired controller to become certified, hiring and training decisions
need to be made from a longer-term perspective. However, we found in
prior work that FAA's process of generally hiring replacements only
after a current controller leaves does not adequately take into
consideration this training time. Hiring challenges include effectively
screening candidates to help ensure that they have the aptitude needed
to control air traffic. Efficiency in hiring will become even more
important as FAA faces the large surge in controller retirements, for
hiring people who do not make it through the training process wastes
money and time--and may affect both the cost of the controller
workforce and the ability of FAA to fill positions quickly enough to
maintain a sufficient controller workforce to meet its mission.
Training challenges include the limited capacity at the training center
in Oklahoma City and at the air traffic control facilities. In
addition, because of the significant amount of on-the-job training that
currently occurs through one-on-one training, to effectively handle a
large number of new controllers, there needs to be an overlap period
during which experienced controllers likely to retire soon and newly
hired controllers are both on board. While this will result in a
temporary increase in the cost of the air traffic controller workforce,
eventually more senior, high salary controllers will retire and be
replaced by new controllers at lower salaries, possibly reducing
expenses; and the need for overlap between these two groups can be
reduced. Our 2002 report recommended that FAA develop a comprehensive
workforce plan to deal with these challenges, but FAA has not finalized
a plan and its recent actions call into question whether it will have
adequate strategies to address these challenges. For example, last
year, FAA hired 762 controllers, but according to a senior National Air
Traffic Controllers Association official, many of these hires took
place at the end of the year, and because of limited space in training
facilities, many of those hired were unable to begin entry level
training immediately. Moreover, since hiring those controllers at the
end of the year to reach a level of 15,635, FAA has lost nearly 400
controllers and has hired only 1 new controller through May of this
year. Its fiscal year 2005 budget proposal does not request any funding
to hire additional controllers to address the wave of retirements.
* Challenges will also affect the ability of the air traffic controller
workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of
airspace, and these challenges underscore the importance of
comprehensive workforce planning that considers and addresses the
entire context in which air traffic controllers operate. Among these
challenges is the need for FAA to overcome significant and longstanding
management problems it has had with acquiring new air traffic control
modernization systems within cost, schedule, and performance goals,
including the need to effectively involve controllers in the
development, deployment, and refinement of these new systems and
consider how these new systems will affect the workforce. Another
challenge will be adjusting to shifts in the types of aircraft used in
commercial aviation (e.g., more flights by smaller aircraft, such as
regional jets or air taxis), general aviation, and fractional
ownership, where individuals or companies purchase a share in an
aircraft for their occasional use. These shifts could have implications
for the Aviation Trust Fund. Another challenge likely to impact the
controller workforce will be keeping pace with the dynamic nature of
the airline industry, in which major and low cost airlines are likely
to change flight patterns, in part by adding or removing hubs. For
example, industry sources have recently reported that US Airways plans
to reduce service to Pittsburgh. Such changes may alter the flow of air
traffic in particular areas, emphasizing the need for an air traffic
control system that is nimble and can seamlessly continue to provide
services as demand shifts.
FAA Faces a Pending Wave of Air Traffic Controller Retirements:
Although the exact number and timing of the controllers' departures are
impossible to determine, scenarios we developed indicate that the total
attrition of controllers from FAA will grow substantially in the short
and long terms. As a result, FAA will likely need to hire thousands of
air traffic controllers in the next decade. At the end of fiscal year
2003, FAA had 15,635 controllers, and according to its staffing
standard, it is targeting a controller staffing level of 15,136 in
fiscal year 2004, 15,300 in fiscal year 2005, and 16,109 in fiscal year
2009. However, so far this year, the agency has lost nearly 400
controllers due to retirements and as of May had hired only 1
controller. FAA has reported similar projections of a wave of air
traffic controller retirements, and in a 2004 report, the Inspector
General also reported on the coming wave, citing FAA's estimate that
nearly 7,100 controllers could leave the agency by 2012.[Footnote 2]
Our 2002 report found that FAA estimated it would experience
retirements of controllers at a level three times higher than that
experienced over the 5-year period from 1996-2000. On top of the
substantial number of retirements, at the time, FAA also projected that
an additional 2,000 controllers would be needed by 2010 to address
forecasted increases in demand for air travel.
Our 2002 report analyzed, among other things, the retirement
eligibility levels for various portions of the controller workforce and
found that the annual number of controllers first becoming eligible for
retirement would peak in fiscal year 2007, when about 10 percent of the
air traffic controllers will become eligible to retire. (See fig. 1.)
In addition, we found that by 2011, about 68 percent of the current
controllers would be eligible to retire.
Figure 1: Past and Projected Air Traffic Controller Retirement
Eligibility, by Fiscal Year:
[See PDF for image]
Note: This figure appeared in Air Traffic Control: FAA Needs to Better
Prepare for Impending Wave of Controller Attrition (GAO-02-591, June
14, 2002).
[End of figure]
We found a similar situation with the retirement eligibility of
supervisors. Because supervisors are important to air traffic control
operations and because they tend to be older than others controlling
traffic, we examined retirement eligibility and survey results of
supervisors at FAA as of June 2001. We found that supervisors will also
become eligible to leave FAA in very high numbers over the next decade.
Specifically, we found that 1,205, or 65 percent of current
supervisors, would become eligible to retire between 2002 and 2011.
(See fig. 2.) However, with 28 percent of current supervisors already
eligible to retire and another 65 percent reaching eligibility by 2011,
a total of about 93 percent of 1,862 current supervisors will be
eligible to retire by the end of fiscal year 2011. As a result, FAA may
face substantial turnover in its supervisory ranks over the next
decade. This turnover could put a further strain on FAA's ability to
maintain a sufficient certified controller workforce, as experienced
controllers will be tapped to fill open supervisory positions, leaving
fewer to control air traffic or provide training for new controllers.
Figure 2: Past and Projected Retirement Eligibility for Supervisory Air
Traffic Controllers:
[See PDF for image]
Note: This figure appeared in Air Traffic Control: FAA Needs to Better
Prepare for Impending Wave of Controller Attrition (GAO-02-591, June
14, 2002).
[End of figure]
Because of the crucial role certain facilities play in the national air
space system, we analyzed the impact of retirement eligibility on the
21 major "en route" centers (air route traffic control centers used to
manage aircraft beyond a 50-nautical-mile radius from airports), the 10
busiest airport towers, and the 10 busiest TRACON facilities (terminal
radar approach control facilities used to track airplanes and manage
the arrival and departure of aircraft within a 5-to-50 nautical mile
radius of airports). Based on our analysis of FAA's employee database,
we found the en route centers and the busiest terminal facilities will
experience a sizeable increase in the number of controllers reaching
retirement eligibility. As figure 3 shows, retirement eligibility in
these facilities grows over the next decade.
Figure 3: Past and Projected Retirement Eligibility for En Route
Centers, 10 Busiest Towers and 10 Busiest TRACONs, by Fiscal Year:
[See PDF for image]
Note: This figure appeared in Air Traffic Control: FAA Needs to Better
Prepare for Impending Wave of Controller Attrition (GAO-02-591, June
14, 2002).
[End of figure]
Based on our analysis for the towers, we found that the Denver tower
had the highest proportion of retirement-eligible controllers as of
September 30, 2001, with 14 of its 51 controllers (27 percent) eligible
to retire. We found that by the end of fiscal year 2006, 45 percent of
Denver's current controllers would be eligible to retire, and by the
end of fiscal year 2011, 46 of its 51 controllers (90 percent), will
reach retirement eligibility.
Our analysis of the 10 busiest TRACON facilities showed that the
Dallas/Fort Worth TRACON had the highest level of current controllers
eligible to retire at the end of fiscal year 2001, with 36 of its 147
controllers (24 percent) eligible. We found that by the end of fiscal
year 2006, the cumulative percentage would grow to 46 percent, and by
the end of fiscal year 2011 would reach 87 percent, as 128 of the 147
controllers currently at the facility would reach retirement
eligibility.
In examining the 21 major en route centers, we found that the
Jacksonville center had the highest proportion of retirement-eligible
controllers at the end of fiscal year 2001, with 79 of its 376
controllers (21 percent) eligible for retirement. According to our
analysis, by the end of fiscal year 2006, at least 29 percent of
current controllers would be eligible for retirement at 10 centers--
Albuquerque, Atlanta, Boston, Fort Worth, Houston, Jacksonville, Los
Angeles, Memphis, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.
We are not alone in seeing a bow wave of controller retirements
approaching over the next several years. This month, FAA provided us
with projections that 329 controllers would retire in fiscal year 2004,
and that this level would double by fiscal year 2007 to over 650 in
that year, and double again to 1170 by fiscal year 2013. These levels
are significantly higher than the average of less than 200 retirements
per year over the past 5 years (1999-2003). Similarly, the Department
of Transportation Inspector General reported this month that increasing
numbers of controllers will become eligible to retire through 2012,
with a peak of retirement eligibility around fiscal year 2007, and that
FAA had estimated that nearly 7,100 controllers could leave FAA by
fiscal year 2012.
FAA Faces Challenges to Hiring and Training an Adequate Number of Well-
Qualified Controllers but Lacks Strategies to Meet These Challenges:
There are several challenges related to hiring and training large
numbers of air traffic controllers in the short amount of time
available. Although we identified these challenges in 2002 and
recommended that FAA create a comprehensive workforce plan that
addresses these challenges, FAA has not yet created a plan. Moreover,
its recent actions suggest that it has not implemented strategies to
meet these challenges and put into place a system that will bring on
board air traffic controllers in time to deal with the projected
retirements of many controllers. However, senior FAA officials told us
that the agency's new Air Traffic Organization is currently preparing a
comprehensive business plan, including a comprehensive controller
workforce plan, which is due to the Congress in December 2004.
A key component of workforce planning is ensuring that appropriately
skilled employees are available when and where they are needed to meet
an agency's mission. This means that an agency continually needs
trained employees to become available in time to fill newly opened
positions. We reported in 2002 that FAA's hiring practice was generally
to hire new employees only when current employees leave, which does not
adequately account for the time needed to train controllers to fully
perform their functions. The amount of time it takes new controllers to
gain certification depends on the facility at which they work, but
generally, training takes from 2 to 4 years and can take up to 5 years
at some of the busiest and most complex facilities. Moreover, during
the training period, the current training process depends upon
substantial one-on-one training, during which an experienced controller
works directly with a controller in training, monitoring the trainee's
actions, so there must be an overlap of experienced controllers and
newly hired controllers. FAA regional officials, who are responsible
for ensuring that FAA's air traffic facilities are adequately staffed,
were particularly concerned about FAA's general hiring practice.
Specifically, the officials were concerned that significant increases
in retirements would leave facilities short of qualified controllers
while new trainees were hired and trained.
Our report also noted that the lack of experienced controllers could
have many adverse consequences. For example, several FAA regional
officials stated that if a facility becomes seriously short of
experienced controllers, the remaining controllers might have to slow
down the flow of air traffic though their airspace. If the situation
became dire, FAA could require airlines to reduce their schedules, but
this would be an unlikely, worst-case scenario, according to some FAA
regional officials. Also, because there would be fewer experienced
controllers available to work, some FAA facility officials stated that
those controllers could see increased workloads and additional,
potentially mandatory, overtime. In addition to potentially resulting
in increased work-related stress and sick leave usage, it could also
cause experienced controllers to retire sooner than they otherwise
might. For example, based on our 2002 survey of controllers, we
estimated that 33 percent of controllers would accelerate their
decision to retire if forced to work additional mandatory overtime.
Identifying sources of future potential employees with the requisite
skills and aptitude is also important. Efficiency in hiring will become
even more important as FAA faces the wave of controller retirements,
for hiring people who do not make it through the training process
wastes money and time--and may affect both the cost of the controller
workforce and the ability of FAA to fill positions quickly enough to
maintain a sufficient controller workforce to meet its mission. FAA has
historically hired new controllers from a variety of sources, including
graduates from institutions in FAA's collegiate training institute
program, the Minneapolis Community and Technical College, former FAA
controllers who were fired by President Reagan in 1981, and former
Department of Defense controllers. FAA can also hire off-the-street
candidates to become controllers. The success of hiring candidates who
actually become controllers depends in large part on identifying
potential candidates who have the appropriate aptitude for controllers'
work. Historically, FAA used its initial entry-level training at its
academy to screen out candidates who could not become successful
controllers. According to FAA officials, as many as 50 percent of off-
the-street applicants have dropped out before finishing the required
training program, at a cost of $10 million per year, a rate that
highlights the difficulty of successfully hiring candidates to replace
the thousands of new controllers expected to retire. FAA has recently
begun to test a new screening exam that it hopes will better ensure
that potential new hires have the skills and abilities necessary to
become successful controllers. It will take a number of years to
determine if the new test has the desired results.
Training challenges include the limited capacity at the training center
in Oklahoma City and at the air traffic control facilities. In
addition, because of the significant amount of on-the-job training that
currently occurs through one-on-one training, to effectively handle a
large number of new controllers, there needs to be an overlap period
during which both experienced controllers likely to retire soon and
newly hired controllers are both on board. While this will result in a
temporary increase in the cost of the air traffic controller workforce,
eventually more senior, high salary controllers will retire and be
replaced by new controllers at lower salaries, possibly reducing
expenses; and the need for overlap between these two groups can be
reduced.
Our 2002 report recommended that FAA develop a comprehensive workforce
plan for controllers to deal with these challenges, but FAA has not
finalized a plan and its recent actions call into question whether it
will have adequate strategies to address these challenges. For example,
last year, FAA hired 762 controllers, but according to a senior
National Air Traffic Controllers Association official, many of these
hires took place at the end of the year, and because of limited space
in training facilities, many of those hired were unable to begin entry
level training immediately. Moreover, since hiring those controllers at
the end of the year to reach a level of 15,635, FAA has lost nearly 400
controllers and has hired only 1 new controller through May of this
year. Its fiscal year 2005 budget proposal does not request any funding
to hire additional controllers to address the wave of retirements.
Challenges Will Also Affect the Ability of the Controller Workforce to
Meet Future Changes in the Airline Industry and Use of Airspace:
There are also challenges in the broader context of the air traffic
control system that will affect the ability of the air traffic
controller workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and
use of airspace. These challenges need to be considered as FAA develops
and implements a comprehensive plan for its controller workforce.
Challenges include the need for FAA to (1) overcome significant and
longstanding management problems it has had with acquiring new systems
to modernize the air traffic control system intended to facilitate the
safe and efficient movement of air traffic by controllers and (2)
adjust to shifts in the use of airspace, including increases in the use
of smaller aircraft and changes in air traffic patterns around the
country.
Controller Workforce Planning Inextricably Linked to FAA's Air Traffic
Control Modernization Efforts:
Controller workforce planning needs to take place in the larger context
of FAA's Air Traffic Control modernization efforts in order to make
optimal use of the agency's investments. However, as our past work has
shown, FAA needs to address longstanding problems it has had in
deploying new air traffic control systems on schedule, within budget,
and with promised capabilities to facilitate the safe and efficient
flow of air traffic by controllers. These new systems are intended to
improve the safety and efficiency of the nation's air traffic control
system, with some offering the potential to improve the productivity of
the controller workforce. To maximize the usefulness of new systems to
controllers and to help ensure that safety is not eroded by the
introduction of new capabilities, sustained controller involvement is
needed as new systems are developed, deployed, and refined. When there
is an ineffective link between technology and needs, money and time
will be wasted, and the effectiveness of the air traffic controller
workforce may be reduced. Moreover, these new systems may change the
productivity of the controller workforce, an effect that will need to
be taken into account as FAA refines its estimates of future controller
workforce needs.
For example, our past work on the Standard Terminal Automation
Replacement System (STARS)--the workstations used by controllers near
airports to sequence and control air traffic--highlights the importance
of controller involvement in the development, deployment, and
refinement of air traffic control systems. In 1997, when FAA
controllers first tested an early version of this commercially
available system, they raised some concerns about the way aircraft
position and other data were displayed and updated on the controllers'
radar screens. For example, the controllers said the system's lack of
detail about an aircraft's position and movement could hamper their
ability to monitor traffic movement. In addition, controllers noted
that many features of the old equipment could be operated with knobs,
allowing controllers to focus on the screen. By contrast, STARS was
menu-driven and required the controllers to make several keystrokes and
use a trackball, diverting their attention from the screen. To address
these concerns, among others, FAA decided to develop a more customized
system and to deploy an incremental approach, thereby enabling
controllers to adjust to some changes before introducing others. This
incremental approach costs more and is taking longer to implement than
the original STARS project. Despite the importance of controller
involvement in the development, deployment, and refinement of new air
traffic control systems, such activities can be very time-consuming,
often take controllers off-line, and place additional pressure on an
already constrained workforce. FAA needs to take into account these
demands on the controller workforce as part of its comprehensive
workforce plan.
Increases in Use of Smaller Aircraft and Changes in Air Traffic
Patterns Around Country May Also Affect the Air Traffic Controller
Workforce:
Changes in patterns of aircraft usage are likely to affect the needs of
the air traffic controller workforce. The increased use of regional
jets, the possibly expanding use of air taxis, ongoing general aviation
aircraft usage, and fractional ownership, where individuals or
companies purchase a share in an aircraft for their occasional use,
could all increase the number of smaller aircraft in the sky, placing
increased demands on the air traffic controller workforce. In addition,
possible changes in air traffic patterns around the country may also
impact this workforce.
In 2001, we reported that we had found consensus among the studies we
reviewed and the industry experts we interviewed that the growing
number of regional jets had contributed to congestion in our national
airspace.[Footnote 3] The industry experts we spoke with repeatedly
expressed concern about the impact of adding so many aircraft so
quickly to airspace whose capacity is already constrained. Because
hundreds of new aircraft had been added to already congested airspace
while comparatively few turboprops had been taken out of service, many
of the experts believed it was inevitable that congestion and delays
would increase. They also noted that with many more regional jets on
order, congestion and delays were not likely to diminish in the near
future. Earlier this month, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of
AirTran Airways noted that the air traffic control system may have
difficulty absorbing the hundreds of regional jets now on
order.[Footnote 4]
In coming years, air taxis may also add to crowding in the skies. FAA
officials told us that they have been briefed on proposals for using
air taxis to carry about four passengers each in selected metropolitan
areas where there is heavy surface traffic congestion. The use of such
air taxis could increase the demand on controllers to provide air
traffic services in these metropolitan areas, where it is likely that
there is already heavy air traffic. Furthermore, it is possible that
any increases in general aviation or fractional ownership could also
increase the amount of traffic in the skies--traffic that must be
effectively directed by air traffic controllers to ensure the safety of
the airways. Moreover, because fees collected for the Aviation Trust
Fund are based largely on ticket taxes assessed on paying airline
passengers, the change in the mix of aircraft could have implications
for the Aviation Trust Fund.
Given the dynamic nature of the airline industry, in which major
airlines and low cost airlines may change their flight patterns by
adding or removing hubs, the number of flights in any one location may
spike or drop abruptly. Recent examples include Independence Air's move
to set up operations at Washington Dulles International Airport and
reports by industry sources of a US Airways plan to reduce service to
Pittsburgh. These types of potential shifts in the location of demand
for air traffic services underscore the need for a nimble air traffic
control system that can seamlessly continue to provide services as
demand shifts.
Concluding Observations:
FAA faces a complex task in effectively addressing the bow wave of
controller retirements that is heading its way. The number of factors
involved, including the need to time hiring so as not to overload
training capacities and the need to be responsive to the changing
demands of a dynamic industry, highlight the importance of a carefully
considered, comprehensive workforce plan. This plan needs to include
strategies for addressing the full range of challenges in order to
seamlessly transition from the current workforce to a future workforce
that is well qualified, trained, and can accommodate changes in the use
of our airspace. However, although we recommended to FAA 2 years ago
that it develop a comprehensive plan for this purpose, it has not yet
finalized a plan. Senior FAA officials told us that the Air Traffic
Organization is currently preparing a comprehensive business plan,
including a comprehensive controller workforce plan, which is due to
the Congress in December 2004. This is an important opportunity to
establish strategies to meet the challenges ahead. Today these
challenges continue to underscore the need for action in developing
strategies that take into account (1) the expected timing and location
of anticipated retirements, (2) the length of the hiring and training
processes, (3) limitations on training capacities, and (4) changes in
the airline industry and use of airspace that may affect the air
traffic controller workforce in coming years. Without focused and
timely action on all of these fronts, the gap created by the expected
bow wave of controller retirements could reduce the effectiveness of
the air traffic control workforce to meet its mission just as increased
activity in the skies makes its effectiveness more critical than ever
to the safety of our airways.
This concludes my statement. I would be pleased to respond to any
questions that you or other Members of the Subcommittee may have at
this time.
Contacts and Acknowledgments:
For further information on this testimony, please contact JayEtta Z.
Hecker at (202) 512-2834 or by e-mail at heckerj@gao.gov. Individuals
making key contributions to this testimony include, David Lichtenfeld,
Beverly Norwood, Raymond Sendejas, Glen Trochelman, and Alwynne Wilbur.
FOOTNOTES
[1] Air Traffic Control: FAA Needs to Better Prepare for Impending Wave
of Controller Attrition (GAO-02-591, June 14, 2002).
[2] Opportunities to Improve FAA's Process for Placing and Training Air
Traffic Controllers In Light of Pending Retirements, (Department of
Transportation Inspector General, Report Number: AV-2004-060, June 2,
2004).
[3] Aviation Competition: Regional Jet Service Yet to Reach Many Small
Communities (GAO-01-344, February 14, 2001).
[4] Testimony of Joseph Leonard, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
of AirTran Airways before the Subcommittee on Aviation, House Committee
on Transportation and Infrastructure, June 3, 2004.
