Aviation Weather
FAA and the National Weather Service Are Considering Plans to Consolidate Weather Service Offices, but Face Significant Challenges Gao ID: GAO-09-761 September 9, 2009The National Weather Service's (NWS) weather products are a vital component of the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) air traffic control system. In addition to providing aviation weather products developed at its own facilities, NWS also provides on-site staff at each of FAA's en route centers--the facilities that control high-altitude flight outside the airport tower and terminal areas. Over the last few years, FAA and NWS have been exploring options for enhancing the efficiency of the aviation weather services provided at en route centers. GAO agreed to (1) determine the status and plans of efforts to restructure the center weather service units, (2) evaluate efforts to establish a baseline of the current performance provided by these units, and (3) evaluate challenges to restructuring them. To do so, GAO evaluated agency plans for the restructuring and for establishing performance measures. GAO also compared agency efforts to leading practices and interviewed agency officials.
NWS and FAA are considering plans to restructure the way aviation weather services are provided at en route centers, but it is not yet clear whether and how these changes will be implemented. In 2005, FAA requested that NWS restructure its services by consolidating operations to a smaller number of sites, reducing personnel costs, and providing services 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. NWS developed two successive proposals, both of which were rejected by FAA--most recently because the costs were too high. FAA subsequently requested that NWS develop another proposal by late December 2008. In response, NWS developed a third proposal that involves consolidating 20 of 21 existing center weather service units into two locations. NWS sent this proposal to FAA in early June 2009. FAA responded to NWS in August 2009 by requesting more information regarding NWS's proposal. In response to GAO's prior concerns that NWS and FAA lacked performance measures and a baseline of current performance, the agencies have agreed on five measures and NWS has proposed eight others. In addition, the agencies initiated efforts to establish a performance baseline for 4 of 13 potential performance measures. However, the agencies have not established baseline performance for the other 9 measures. NWS officials stated they are not collecting baseline information on the 9 measures for a variety of reasons, including that some of the measures have not yet been approved by FAA, and that selected measures involve products that have not yet been developed. While 4 of the 9 measures are tied to new products or services that are to be developed if NWS's latest restructuring proposal is accepted, the other 5 could be measured in the current operational environment. For example, both accuracy and customer satisfaction measures are applicable to current operations. It is important to obtain an understanding of the current level of performance in these measures before beginning any efforts to restructure aviation weather services. Without an understanding of the current level of performance, NWS and FAA may not be able to measure the success or failure of changes they make to the center weather service unit operations. As a result, changes to the current structure could degrade aviation operations and safety--and the agencies may not know it. NWS and FAA face challenges in their efforts to improve the current aviation weather structure. These include challenges associated with (1) interagency collaboration, (2) defining FAA's requirements, and (3) aligning any changes with the Next Generation Air Transportation System--a long-term initiative to increase the efficiency of the national airspace system. If the restructuring proposal is accepted, the agencies face three additional challenges in implementing it: (1) developing a feasible schedule that includes adequate time for stakeholder involvement, (2) undertaking a comprehensive demonstration to ensure no services are degraded, and (3) effectively reconfiguring the infrastructure and technologies. Unless and until these challenges are addressed, the proposed restructuring of aviation weather services at en route centers poses new risks and has little chance of success.
RecommendationsOur recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.
Director: Team: Phone:GAO-09-761, Aviation Weather: FAA and the National Weather Service Are Considering Plans to Consolidate Weather Service Offices, but Face Significant Challenges
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Report to the Chairman, Committee on Science and Technology, House of
Representatives:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
September 2009:
Aviation Weather:
FAA and the National Weather Service Are Considering Plans to
Consolidate Weather Service Offices, but Face Significant Challenges:
GAO-09-761:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-09-761, a report to the Chairman, Committee on
Science and Technology, House of Representatives.
Why GAO Did This Study:
The National Weather Service‘s (NWS) weather products are a vital
component of the Federal Aviation Administration‘s (FAA) air traffic
control system. In addition to providing aviation weather products
developed at its own facilities, NWS also provides on-site staff at
each of FAA‘s en route centers”the facilities that control high-
altitude flight outside the airport tower and terminal areas. Over the
last few years, FAA and NWS have been exploring options for enhancing
the efficiency of the aviation weather services provided at en route
centers.
GAO agreed to (1) determine the status and plans of efforts to
restructure the center weather service units, (2) evaluate efforts to
establish a baseline of the current performance provided by these
units, and (3) evaluate challenges to restructuring them. To do so, GAO
evaluated agency plans for the restructuring and for establishing
performance measures. GAO also compared agency efforts to leading
practices and interviewed agency officials.
What GAO Found:
NWS and FAA are considering plans to restructure the way aviation
weather services are provided at en route centers, but it is not yet
clear whether and how these changes will be implemented. In 2005, FAA
requested that NWS restructure its services by consolidating operations
to a smaller number of sites, reducing personnel costs, and providing
services 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. NWS developed two successive
proposals, both of which were rejected by FAA”most recently because the
costs were too high. FAA subsequently requested that NWS develop
another proposal by late December 2008. In response, NWS developed a
third proposal that involves consolidating 20 of 21 existing center
weather service units into two locations. NWS sent this proposal to FAA
in early June 2009. FAA responded to NWS in August 2009 by requesting
more information regarding NWS‘s proposal.
In response to GAO‘s prior concerns that NWS and FAA lacked performance
measures and a baseline of current performance, the agencies have
agreed on five measures and NWS has proposed eight others. In addition,
the agencies initiated efforts to establish a performance baseline for
4 of 13 potential performance measures. However, the agencies have not
established baseline performance for the other 9 measures. NWS
officials stated they are not collecting baseline information on the 9
measures for a variety of reasons, including that some of the measures
have not yet been approved by FAA, and that selected measures involve
products that have not yet been developed. While 4 of the 9 measures
are tied to new products or services that are to be developed if NWS‘s
latest restructuring proposal is accepted, the other 5 could be
measured in the current operational environment. For example, both
accuracy and customer satisfaction measures are applicable to current
operations. It is important to obtain an understanding of the current
level of performance in these measures before beginning any efforts to
restructure aviation weather services. Without an understanding of the
current level of performance, NWS and FAA may not be able to measure
the success or failure of changes they make to the center weather
service unit operations. As a result, changes to the current structure
could degrade aviation operations and safety”and the agencies may not
know it.
NWS and FAA face challenges in their efforts to improve the current
aviation weather structure. These include challenges associated with
(1) interagency collaboration, (2) defining FAA‘s requirements, and (3)
aligning any changes with the Next Generation Air Transportation System”
a long-term initiative to increase the efficiency of the national
airspace system. If the restructuring proposal is accepted, the
agencies face three additional challenges in implementing it: (1)
developing a feasible schedule that includes adequate time for
stakeholder involvement, (2) undertaking a comprehensive demonstration
to ensure no services are degraded, and (3) effectively reconfiguring
the infrastructure and technologies. Unless and until these challenges
are addressed, the proposed restructuring of aviation weather services
at en route centers poses new risks and has little chance of success.
What GAO Recommends:
GAO is recommending that the Departments of Commerce and Transportation
document baseline performance for several measures, and take steps to
address challenges. In commenting on a draft of this report, Commerce
officials agreed with the recommendations and identified steps to
address them; Transportation officials agreed to consider the
recommendations.
View [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-761] or key
components. For more information, contact David A. Powner at (202) 512-
9286 or at pownerd@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Contents:
Letter:
Background:
Proposal to Consolidate Center Weather Service Units Is under
Consideration:
NWS and FAA Are Working to Establish a Baseline of Current Performance,
but Are Not Assessing Key Measures:
NWS and FAA Face Challenges in Efforts to Modify the Current Aviation
Weather Structure:
Conclusions:
Recommendations for Executive Action:
Agency Comments and Our Evaluation:
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology:
Appendix II: Comments from the Department of Commerce:
Appendix III: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
Tables:
Table 1: Key Weather Products Provided by the Aviation Weather Center:
Table 2: Systems Used in the Center Weather Service Units:
Table 3: Key Products and Services Provided by Center Weather Service
Units:
Table 4: Chronology of Efforts by FAA and NWS:
Table 5: Approximate Costs (in millions) for the Transition:
Table 6: Performance Measures Identified by FAA and NWS:
Table 7: Status of Efforts to Identify Baseline Performance:
Table 8: Key Events in FAA and NWS Interactions:
Figures:
Figure 1: FAA Facilities Involved in Air Traffic Control:
Figure 2: Center Weather Service Unit Locations and Service Areas:
Figure 3: Proposed Center Weather Service Unit Structure:
Abbreviations:
FAA: Federal Aviation Administration:
NextGen: Next Generation Air Transportation System:
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
NWS: National Weather Service:
[End of section]
United States Government Accountability Office:
Washington, DC 20548:
September 9, 2009:
The Honorable Bart Gordon:
Chairman:
Committee on Science and Technology:
House of Representatives:
Dear Mr. Chairman:
The National Weather Service (NWS) plays a significant role in
providing weather services to the aviation community. NWS's weather
products and data are vital components of the Federal Aviation
Administration's (FAA) air traffic control system, providing weather
information to local, regional, and national air traffic management,
navigation, and surveillance systems. NWS aviation weather products
include forecasts and warnings of meteorological conditions that could
affect air traffic, including thunderstorms, air turbulence, and icing.
In addition to providing aviation weather products that are developed
at its own facilities, NWS also provides staff on site at each of FAA's
en route centers--the facilities that control high-altitude flight
outside the airport tower and terminal areas. This group of NWS
meteorologists--called a center weather service unit--provides air
traffic staff with forecasts, advisories, and periodic weather
briefings on regional conditions.
Over the last few years, FAA and NWS have been exploring options for
enhancing the efficiency of the aviation weather services provided at
en route centers. In September 2005, FAA asked NWS to restructure its
services to be more efficient. Since then, NWS has developed and
submitted two proposals to FAA, both of which were rejected. NWS
subsequently submitted another proposal. Because of your interest in
possible changes to NWS's aviation weather services, we agreed to (1)
determine the status and plans of efforts to restructure the center
weather service units, (2) evaluate efforts to establish a baseline of
the current performance provided by the center weather service units so
that FAA and NWS can ensure that any operational changes do not degrade
aviation weather services, and (3) evaluate challenges to restructuring
the center weather service units.
To address our objectives, we reviewed NWS's proposals and transition
plans for restructuring the service units and FAA's response to NWS's
proposals. We identified both agencies' efforts to establish a baseline
of current performance and compared these efforts to government
guidance and best practices of leading organizations in performance
management. To identify challenges, we compared the agencies' plans
with best practices of leading organizations in system development,
interagency collaboration, and architecture planning. We also
interviewed relevant agency officials.
We performed our work at FAA and NWS headquarters offices, and FAA's
Air Traffic Control System Command Center in the Washington, D.C.,
metropolitan area. We performed our work from August 2008 to September
2009 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing
standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit
to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable
basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for
our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. Additional
details on our objectives, scope, and methodology are provided in
appendix I.
Background:
FAA is responsible for ensuring safe, orderly, and efficient air travel
in the national airspace system. NWS supports FAA by providing aviation-
related forecasts and warnings at air traffic facilities across the
country. Among other support and services, NWS provides four
meteorologists at each of FAA's 21 en route centers to provide on-site
aviation weather services. This arrangement is defined and funded under
an interagency agreement.
FAA's Mission and Organizational Structure:
FAA's primary mission is to ensure safe, orderly, and efficient air
travel in the national airspace system. FAA reported that, in 2007, air
traffic in the national airspace system exceeded 46 million flights and
776 million passengers. In addition, at any one time, as many as 7,000
aircraft--both civilian and military--could be aloft over the United
States. In 2004, FAA's Air Traffic Organization was formed to, among
other responsibilities, improve the provision of air traffic services.
More than 33,000 employees within FAA's Air Traffic Organization
support the operations that help move aircraft through the national
airspace system. The agency's ability to fulfill its mission depends on
the adequacy and reliability of its air traffic control systems, as
well as weather forecasts made available by NWS and automated systems.
These resources reside at, or are associated with, several types of
facilities: air traffic control towers, terminal radar approach control
facilities, air route traffic control centers (en route centers), and
the Air Traffic Control System Command Center. The number and functions
of these facilities are as follows:
* 517 air traffic control towers manage and control the airspace within
about 5 miles of an airport. They control departures and landings, as
well as ground operations on airport taxiways and runways.
* 170 terminal radar approach control facilities provide air traffic
control services for airspace within approximately 40 miles of an
airport and generally up to 10,000 feet above the airport, where en
route centers' control begins. Terminal controllers establish and
maintain the sequence and separation of aircraft.
* 21 en route centers control planes over the United States--in transit
and during approaches to some airports. Each center handles a different
region of airspace. En route centers operate the computer suite that
processes radar surveillance and flight planning data, reformats them
for presentation purposes, and sends them to display equipment used by
controllers to track aircraft. The centers control the switching of
voice communications between aircraft and the center, as well as
between the center and other air traffic control facilities. Three of
these en route centers also control air traffic over the oceans.
* The Air Traffic Control System Command Center manages the flow of air
traffic within the United States. This facility regulates air traffic
when weather, equipment, runway closures, or other conditions place
stress on the national airspace system. In these instances, traffic
management specialists at the command center take action to modify
traffic demands in order to keep traffic within system capacity.
See figure 1 for a visual summary of the facilities that control and
manage air traffic over the United States.
Figure 1: FAA Facilities Involved in Air Traffic Control:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
Air Traffic Control System Command Center:
Preflight:
Air Traffic Control Tower.
Takeoff:
Air Traffic Control Tower.
Departure:
Terminal Radar Approach Control;
Air Route Traffic Control Center.
En route:
Air Route Traffic Control Center.
Descent:
Air Route Traffic Control Center;
Terminal Radar Approach Control.
Approach:
Terminal Radar Approach Control.
Landing:
Air Traffic Control Tower.
Source: GAO analysis of FAA data.
[End of figure]
NWS's Mission and Organizational Structure:
The mission of NWS--an agency within the Department of Commerce's
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)--is to provide
weather, water, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United
States, its territories, and its adjacent waters and oceans to protect
life and property and to enhance the national economy. In addition, NWS
is the official source of aviation-and marine-related weather forecasts
and warnings, as well as warnings about life-threatening weather
situations.
The coordinated activities of weather facilities throughout the United
States allow NWS to deliver a broad spectrum of climate, weather,
water, and space weather services in support of its mission. These
facilities include 122 weather forecast offices located across the
country that provide a wide variety of weather, water, and climate
services for their local county warning areas, including advisories,
warnings, and forecasts; 9 national prediction centers[Footnote 1] that
provide nationwide computer modeling to all NWS field offices; and 21
center weather service units that are located at FAA en route centers
across the nation and provide meteorological support to air traffic
controllers.
NWS Provides Aviation Weather Services to FAA:
As an official source of aviation weather forecasts and warnings,
several NWS facilities provide aviation weather products and services
to FAA and the aviation sector. These facilities include the Aviation
Weather Center, weather forecast offices located across the country,
and 21 center weather service units located at FAA en route centers
across the country.
Aviation Weather Center:
The Aviation Weather Center located in Kansas City, Missouri, issues
warnings, forecasts, and analyses of hazardous weather for aviation.
Staffed by 65 personnel, the center develops warnings of hazardous
weather for aircraft in flight and forecasts of weather conditions for
the next 2 days that could affect both domestic and international
aviation.
The center also produces a Collaborative Convective Forecast Product, a
graphical representation of convective occurrence at 2, 4, and 6 hours.
This is used by FAA to manage aviation traffic flow across the country.
The Aviation Weather Center's key products are described in table 1.
Table 1: Key Weather Products Provided by the Aviation Weather Center:
Weather product: Significant Meteorological Information;
Description: An advisory concerning the occurrence or expected
occurrence of potentially hazardous weather conditions that may affect
the safety of aircraft operations in the en route environment.
Weather product: Convective Significant Meteorological Information;
Description: A text product describing the occurrence or expected
occurrence of thunderstorms and related weather conditions over the
contiguous United States within 2 hours of issuance time.
Weather product: Airman's Meteorological Information;
Description: An advisory concerning the occurrence or expected
occurrence of certain weather conditions that may affect the safety of
aircraft in the en route environment, but at intensities that do not
meet the criteria to develop a Significant Meteorological Information
product.
Weather product: Collaborative Convection Forecast Product;
Description: A graphical convection forecast developed for strategic
planning and management of en route air traffic. It is produced every 2
hours through collaboration - by way of an online chat room - among the
Aviation Weather Center, the Meteorological Services of Canada, airline
meteorology departments, FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command
Center, and the center weather service units. These collaborative
forecasts are produced between March 1 and October 31 every year.
Source: GAO analysis of NWS data.
[End of table]
Weather Forecast Offices:
NWS's 122 weather forecast offices issue terminal area forecasts for
approximately 625 locations every 6 hours or when conditions change,
consisting of the expected weather conditions significant to a given
airport or terminal area, and are primarily used by commercial and
general aviation pilots.
Center Weather Service Units:
NWS's center weather service units are located at each of FAA's 21 en
route centers and operate 16 hours a day, 7 days a week (see figure 2).
Each center weather service unit usually consists of three
meteorologists and a meteorologist-in-charge who provide strategic
advice and aviation weather forecasts to FAA traffic management
personnel. Governed by an interagency agreement, FAA currently
reimburses NWS approximately $12 million annually for this support.
Figure 2: Center Weather Service Unit Locations and Service Areas:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustrated map of the United States]
Service Areas are depicted on the map for the following Center Weather
Service Unit Locations:
Albuquerque, New Mexico;
Anchorage, Alaska;
Atlanta, Georgia;
Boston, Massachusetts;
Chicago, Illinois;
Cleveland, Ohio;
Denver, Colorado;
Fort Worth, Texas;
Houston, Texas;
Indianapolis, Indiana;
Jacksonville, Florida;
Kansas City, Missouri;
Los Angeles, California;
Memphis, Tennessee;
Miami, Florida;
Minneapolis, Minnesota;
New York City, New York;
Oakland, California;
Salt Lake City, Utah;
Seattle, Washington;
Washington, DC.
Sources: NWS (data), Map Resources (map).
[End of figure]
Center Weather Service Units: An Overview of Systems and Operations:
The meteorologists at the center weather service units use a variety of
systems to gather and analyze information compiled from NWS and FAA
weather sensors. Key systems used to compile weather information
include FAA's Weather and Radar Processor, FAA's Integrated Terminal
Weather System, FAA's Corridor Integrated Weather System, and a remote
display of NWS's Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System.
Meteorologists at several center weather service units also use NWS's
National Center Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System. Table 2
provides a description of selected systems.
Table 2: Systems Used in the Center Weather Service Units:
System: Weather and Radar Processor;
Description: FAA's Weather and Radar Processor is used in en route
centers and receives NWS products and data, information from automated
weather sensors located at airports, and data from other sources such
as weather satellites and radars. It compiles the information and
provides current weather and forecasts to air traffic supervisors,
traffic flow managers, and the center weather service unit
meteorologists.
System: Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System--Remote Display;
Description: NWS's Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
integrates hydrometeorological data from a variety of sources and
produces graphical displays at NWS weather forecast offices, river
forecast centers, and national centers. This system aids forecaster
analysis and decision making. Meteorologists at the en route centers
have access to this system through a Remote Display system, which
provides a dedicated connection to the supporting weather forecast
office. The Remote Display is funded by FAA, and maintenance is
provided by NWS.
System: Integrated Terminal Weather System;
Description: FAA's Integrated Terminal Weather System furnishes air
traffic controllers and meteorologists with full-color graphic displays
of weather information concerning airport terminal airspace within a 60-
mile radius. The system also projects movement of severe weather
systems up to 1 hour in the future and has been installed at 39
airports.
System: Corridor Integrated Weather System;
Description: FAA's Corridor Integrated Weather System is a prototype
decision support tool that gathers weather information to help
controllers select the most efficient routes for diverting traffic to
avoid severe weather conditions. This system provides traffic flow
managers with comprehensive convective weather data needed for tactical
modifications occurring within 2 hours to the operational plan. These
tactical modifications to the operational plan may include the weather
impacts on air traffic control capacity, a need to modify the
mitigation plan, and the execution of a modified mitigation plan.
System: National Center Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System;
Description: NWS's National Center Advanced Weather Interactive
Processing System is the meteorological data visualization and
integrated product generation system that provides a national scope of
weather information. It is composed of software that ingests, analyzes,
displays, and integrates various types of hydrometeorological data
including numerical model, surface, upper-air, satellite, radar, and
text data. This system is used in only a few center weather service
units.
Source: GAO analysis of FAA and NWS data.
[End of table]
NWS meteorologists at the en route centers provide several products and
services to the FAA staff, including meteorological impact statements,
center weather advisories, periodic briefings, and on-demand
consultations. These products and services are described in table 3. In
addition, center weather service unit meteorologists receive and
disseminate pilot reports, provide input every 2 hours to the Aviation
Weather Center's creation of the Collaborative Convective Forecast
Product, train FAA personnel on how to interpret weather information,
and provide weather briefings to nearby terminal radar approach control
facilities and air traffic control towers.
Table 3: Key Products and Services Provided by Center Weather Service
Units:
Product or service: Meteorological impact statement;
Description: An unscheduled forecast of weather conditions that are
expected to adversely impact the flow of air traffic in the en route
center's area of responsibility within 4 to 12 hours.
Product or service: Center weather advisory;
Description: A short-term, unscheduled warning of hazardous weather
conditions used primarily by air crews to anticipate and avoid adverse
weather conditions in the en route and terminal environments. It
describes current weather conditions or adverse weather conditions--
such as moderate to severe icing or turbulence, thunderstorms, low-
level wind shear, and low ceilings and visibility--beginning within the
next 2 hours.
Product or service: Briefings;
Description: Short updates provided by NWS meteorologists to FAA
supervisors twice a day; these briefings include current weather
warnings and advisories, a summary of forecasted weather across the
national airspace, terminal forecasts, and other pertinent
meteorological information.
Product or service: On-demand consultation;
Description: Unscheduled verbal presentations regarding ongoing or
expected weather conditions provided to FAA traffic control personnel,
supervisors, and other FAA facilities.
Source: GAO analysis of FAA and NWS data.
[End of table]
FAA Seeks to Improve Aviation Weather Services Provided at En Route
Centers:
In recent years, FAA has undertaken multiple initiatives to assess and
improve the performance of the center weather service units.[Footnote
2] Studies conducted in 2003 and 2006 highlighted concerns with the
lack of standardization of products and services at NWS's center
weather service units. To address these concerns, the agency sponsored
studies that determined that weather data could be provided remotely
using current technologies, and that private sector vendors could
provide these services. In 2005, the agency requested that NWS
restructure its aviation weather services by consolidating its center
weather service units to a smaller number of sites, reducing personnel
costs, and providing products and services 24 hours a day, 7 days a
week. NWS subsequently submitted a proposal for restructuring its
services, but FAA declined the proposal citing the need to refine its
requirements.
In December 2007, FAA issued revised requirements and asked NWS to
respond with proposals defining the technical and cost implications of
three operational concepts. The three concepts involved (1) on-site
services provided within the existing configuration of offices located
at the 21 en route centers, (2) remote services provided by a reduced
number of regional facilities, and (3) remote services provided by a
single centralized facility. NWS responded with three proposals, but
FAA rejected these proposals in September 2008, noting that while
elements of each proposal had merit, the proposed costs were too high.
FAA requested that NWS revise its proposal to bring costs down while
stating a preference to move toward a single center weather service
unit with a back-up site.
As a separate initiative, NWS initiated an improvement program for the
center weather service units in April 2008. The goal of the program was
to improve the consistency of the units' products and services. This
program involved standardizing the technology, collaboration, and
training for all 21 center weather service units and conducting site
visits to evaluate each unit. NWS reported that it has completed its
efforts to standardize the service units and plans to complete its site
visits by September 2009. Table 4 provides a chronology of the
agencies' assessment and improvement efforts.
Table 4: Chronology of Efforts by FAA and NWS:
Time frame: November 2003;
Activity: FAA performed a functional audit of center weather service
units and found that the services provided at different en route
locations were inconsistent, the products were not standardized, and
there was little communication and collaboration between neighboring
service units.
Time frame: September 2005;
Activity: FAA requested that NWS restructure its aviation weather
services to provide improved services more efficiently. Specifically,
FAA requested that NWS consolidate 20 of the center weather service
units (excluding the unit in Alaska) to a smaller number of sites,
reduce NWS personnel costs by 20 percent, and deliver forecast products
and services 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Time frame: January 2006;
Activity: FAA initiated an analysis of the value of different
activities performed by the center weather service units. Similar to
the 2003 study, the results of this analysis noted the lack of
standardization of products, services, tools, and procedures. In
addition, the report found that quality assurance was provided on an
informal basis, there was no formal feedback process for products and
services, and meteorological training was not standardized.
Time frame: August 2006;
Activity: NWS conducted a prototype in which center weather service
unit products and services were completed and delivered remotely from
the closest weather forecast office. This prototype showed that remote
operations were possible and effective, but that they would be
difficult to implement because of the need for cultural change,
technology upgrades, and communication stability. Specifically,
forecasters in the prototype were not able to provide dedicated support
for the aviation mission because their other duties--including
forecasting severe weather at the weather forecast office--took
precedence. In addition, a collaboration technology used during the
prototype was not operationally ready to use, servers were unstable,
critical radar data were inconsistent with weather forecast office
data, and communications lines were unstable throughout the prototype.
Time frame: September 2006;
Activity: An FAA study confirmed that it is possible to deliver weather
information, products, and services from one or many remote locations
with currently available state-of-the-art technology platforms.
Time frame: October 2006;
Activity: FAA administered a market survey to determine whether the
private sector could provide remote weather services at a lower cost
than currently provided. Ten organizations, including private sector
firms and government-funded laboratories, responded that they could
provide the services that FAA wanted. Separately, NWS presented its
proposal for restructuring its aviation weather services to FAA. In
this proposal, NWS suggested moving meteorologists from the en route
centers to regional weather forecast offices, and providing remote
aviation weather services from the weather forecast offices.
Time frame: April 2007;
Activity: FAA declined NWS's proposal. Instead, FAA reported that it
would redefine its requirements for the functions provided by the
center weather service units.
Time frame: December 2007;
Activity: FAA transmitted its redefined requirements to NWS and
requested a written response detailing three different operational
concepts.
Time frame: April 2008;
Activity: NWS initiated a short-term improvement program for the center
weather service units. The goal of this program was to standardize the
technology and training for the units to improve the consistency of
products and services.
Time frame: May 2008;
Activity: In response to the new requirements, NWS provided FAA with
three proposals to restructure the center weather service units.
Time frame: September 2008;
Activity: FAA rejected NWS's three proposals, stating that while
elements of each proposal had merit, the agency could not accept them
because the proposed costs were too high. Additionally, FAA requested
that NWS deliver a revised proposal by December 2008, stating a
preference to move toward a single center weather service unit with a
back-up site.
Source: GAO analysis of NWS and FAA data.
[End of table]
Prior GAO Report Identified Concerns with Center Weather Service Units;
Recommended Steps to Improve Quality Assurance:
In January 2008, we reported on concerns about inconsistencies in
products and quality among center weather service units.[Footnote 3] We
noted that while both NWS and FAA have responsibilities for assuring
and controlling the quality of aviation weather observations, neither
agency monitored the accuracy and quality of the aviation weather
products provided at center weather service units. We recommended that
NWS and FAA develop performance measures and metrics for the products
and services to be provided by center weather service units, perform
annual evaluations of aviation weather services provided at en route
centers, and provide feedback to the center weather service units. The
Department of Commerce agreed with our recommendations, and the
Department of Transportation stated that FAA planned to revise its
requirements and that these would establish performance measures and
evaluation procedures.
Proposal to Consolidate Center Weather Service Units Is under
Consideration:
NWS and FAA are considering plans to restructure the way aviation
weather services are provided at en route centers. After a 6-month
delay, NWS sent FAA its latest proposal for restructuring the center
weather service units in June 2009.[Footnote 4] NWS's proposal involves
consolidating 20 of the 21 existing center weather service units into
two locations, with one at the Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City,
Missouri, and the other at a new National Centers for Environmental
Prediction office planned for the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area.
[Footnote 5] The Missouri center is expected to handle the southern
half of the United States while the Washington, D.C., center is
expected to handle the northern half of the United States. NWS plans
for the two new units to be staffed 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and
to function as back-up sites for each other. These new units would
continue to use existing forecasting systems and tools to develop
products and services. See figure 3 for a visual summary of the
proposed consolidated center weather service unit facilities that
control and manage air traffic over the United States.
Figure 3: Proposed Center Weather Service Unit Structure:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustrated map of the United States]
The map depicts the following:
Current (21) center weather service unit locations at en route
centers (refer to figure 2 for specific locations):
Albuquerque;
Anchorage;
Atlanta;
Boston;
Chicago;
Cleveland;
Denver;
Fort Worth;
Houston;
Indianapolis;
Jacksonville;
Kansas City;
Los Angeles;
Memphis;
Miami;
Minneapolis;
New York;
Oakland;
Salt Lake City;
Seattle;
Washington, DC.
Proposed (2) center weather service unit locations:
Kansas City;
Washington, DC metropolitan area.
Proposed area of responsibility for center weather service unit
North:
Boston;
Chicago;
Cleveland;
Denver;
Indianapolis;
Minneapolis;
New York;
Salt Lake City;
Seattle.
Proposed area of responsibility for center weather service unit
South:
Albuquerque;
Atlanta;
Fort Worth;
Houston;
Jacksonville;
Kansas City;
Los Angeles;
Memphis;
Miami;
Oakland.
Center weather service unit location not part of proposed
consolidation:
Anchorage.
Sources: NWS (data), Map Resources (map).
[End of figure]
While these new units would continue to use existing forecasting
systems and tools to develop products and services, NWS has also
proposed new products, services, and tools. Two new products are the
Collaborative Weather Impact Product and the terminal radar approach
control forecast. The former is expected to expand the Aviation Weather
Center's existing Collaborative Convective Forecast Product to include
convection, turbulence, icing, wind, ceiling/visibility, and
precipitation type/intensity. The latter is expected to extract data
from the Collaborative Weather Impact Product and include
precipitation, winds, and convection for the terminal area; the display
will allow the forecaster to layer this information on air traffic
management information such as jet routes. In addition, NWS plans to
create a Web portal to allow FAA and other users to access its
advisories, forecasts, and products as well as national, regional, and
local weather briefings. To support on-demand briefings at the new
center weather service units, NWS plans to use collaboration tools,
such as instant messaging and online collaboration software.
Given the reduced number of locations in the revised organizational
structure, NWS also proposed reducing the number of personnel needed to
support its operations from 84 to 50 full-time staff--a reduction of 34
positions. Specifically, the agency determined that it will require 20
staff members for each new center weather service unit; 4 staff members
at the Alaska unit; 5 additional forecasters at the Aviation Weather
Center to help prepare the Collaborative Weather Impact Product; and a
quality assurance manager at NWS headquarters. NWS anticipates the
staff reductions will be achieved through scheduled retirements,
resignations, and reassignments. However, the agency has identified the
transition of its existing workforce to the new centers as a high-
impact risk because staff may decline to move to the new locations.
NWS also proposed tentative time frames for transitioning to the new
organizational structure over a 3-year period. During the first year
after FAA accepts the proposal, NWS plans to develop a transition plan
and conduct a 9-month demonstration of the concept in order to ensure
that the new structure will not degrade its services. Agency officials
estimated that initial operating capability would be achieved by the
end of the second year after FAA approval and full operating capability
by the end of the third year.
NWS estimated the transition costs for this proposal at approximately
$12.8 million, which includes approximately $3.3 million for the
demonstration. In addition, NWS estimated that the annual recurring
costs will be about 21 percent lower than current annual costs. For
example, using 2009 prices, NWS estimated that the new structure would
cost $9.7 million--about $2.6 million less than the current $12.3
million cost. See table 5 for the estimated costs for transitioning the
centers.
Table 5: Approximate Costs (in millions) for the Transition:
Description: Legacy centers;
Year 1: $12.3;
Year 2: $12.7;
Year 3: $11.7;
Year 4: $1.6;
Year 5: $0;
Total cost: $38.2[A].
Description: Transition costs;
Year 1: $4.6;
Year 2: $4.0;
Year 3: $3.0;
Year 4: $1.1;
Year 5: $0;
Total cost: $12.8[A].
Description: New centers;
Year 1: $0;
Year 2: $0;
Year 3: $4.8;
Year 4: $10.8;
Year 5: $11.0;
Total cost: $26.6.
Description: Total;
Year 1: $16.9;
Year 2: $16.7;
Year 3: $19.5;
Year 4: $13.5;
Year 5: $11.0;
Total cost: $77.6.
Source: GAO analysis of NWS data.
[A] Numbers do not add correctly due to rounding.
[End of table]
However, it is not clear when and if the agencies will move forward
with the proposal. FAA responded to NWS in August 2009 by requesting
more information regarding NWS's proposal. One consideration that may
affect the proposal involves the current interagency agreement. The
most recent agreement between the two agencies, signed in December
2007, is to expire at the end of September 2009. Before it expires, the
two agencies could choose to exercise an option to continue this
agreement for another year, terminate the agreement, or sign a new
agreement. An FAA official reported that the agency wanted to create a
new agreement that includes key dates from the proposal, such as those
related to the concept demonstration. This official added that such
agreements typically take time to develop and coordinate between the
agencies.
NWS and FAA Are Working to Establish a Baseline of Current Performance,
but Are Not Assessing Key Measures:
According to best practices in leading organizations, performance
should be measured in order to evaluate the success or failure of
programs.[Footnote 6] Performance measurement involves identifying
performance goals and measures, establishing performance baselines,
identifying targets for improving performance, and measuring progress
against those targets. Having a clear understanding of an
organization's current performance--a baseline--is essential to
determining whether new initiatives (like the proposed restructuring)
result in improved or degraded products and services.
In January 2008, we reported that NWS and FAA lacked performance
measures and a baseline of current performance for the center weather
service units and recommended that they develop performance measures.
[Footnote 7] In response to this recommendation, FAA established 5
performance standards for the center weather service units. FAA also
recommended that NWS identify additional performance measures in its
proposal for restructuring the center weather service units. While NWS
subsequently identified 8 additional performance measures in its
proposal, FAA has not yet approved these measures. All 13 performance
measures are listed in table 6.
Table 6: Performance Measures Identified by FAA and NWS:
Performance measure: Service provision (organizational);
Description: A measure of time that the unit is operating (either
through on-site staff or through off-site staff providing back-up
operations);
Source: Required by interagency agreement.
Performance measure: Product participation;
Description: A measure of the unit's participation in the development
of the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product when convection is
expected to occur within the unit's domain;
Source: Required by interagency agreement.
Performance measure: Format consistency;
Description: A measure of the consistency of product formats, content,
and procedures for the issuance of key existing products;
Source: Required by interagency agreement.
Performance measure: Service provision (briefings);
Description: A measure of the unit's provision of twice-daily stand-up
briefings;
Source: Required by interagency agreement and proposed by NWS.
Performance measure: Forecast accuracy;
Description: A measure of the accuracy of forecasts used in traffic
management decisions;
Source: Required by interagency agreement and proposed by NWS.
Performance measure: Customer satisfaction;
Description: A measure of satisfaction with product quality,
timeliness, accuracy, and customer service, as well as the number of
complaints received;
Source: Proposed by NWS.
Performance measure: Service delivery conformity;
Description: A measure of the conformity of both standardized and
customized services to a checklist of components;
Source: Proposed by NWS.
Performance measure: Timeliness of on-demand services;
Description: A measure of the time taken to respond to requests for on-
demand service;
Source: Proposed by NWS.
Performance measure: Training completion;
Description: A measure of completion of standardized training;
Source: Proposed by NWS.
Performance measure: Product consistency;
Description: A measure of the consistency of the proposed Collaborative
Weather Impact Product with other products;
Source: Proposed by NWS.
Performance measure: Timeliness of information updates;
Description: A measure of NWS's ability to provide timely updates to
the proposed Collaborative Weather Impact Product;
Source: Proposed by NWS.
Performance measure: Product availability;
Description: A measure of the availability of products via a proposed
Web portal;
Source: Proposed by NWS.
Performance measure: Timeliness of management reports on the
restructuring;
Description: A measure of NWS's ability to provide timely management
reports associated with the restructuring;
Source: Proposed by NWS.
Source: GAO analysis of NWS and FAA data.
[End of table]
NWS officials reported that they have historical data for 1 of the 13
performance measures--participation in the Collaborative Convective
Forecast Product--and are working to obtain a baseline for 3 other
performance measures. Specifically, in January 2009, NWS and FAA began
evaluating how the center weather service units are performing and, as
part of this initiative, are collecting data associated with
organizational service provision, format consistency, and briefing
service provision. As of June 2009, the agencies had completed
evaluations of 13 service units and plan to complete evaluations for
all 21 service units by September 2009.
However, the agencies have not established a baseline of performance
for the 9 other performance measures. NWS officials reported that they
are not collecting baseline information for a variety of reasons,
including that the measures have not yet been approved by FAA and that
selected measures involve products that have not yet been developed. A
summary of the status of efforts to establish baselines and reasons for
not establishing baselines is provided in table 7.
Table 7: Status of Efforts to Identify Baseline Performance:
Performance measure: Service provision (organizational);
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Performance at 21
sites is being documented during site visits;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: Not applicable--is
being measured.
Performance measure: Product participation;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Historical
performance is being captured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: Not applicable--is
being measured.
Performance measure: Format consistency;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Performance at 21
sites is being documented during site visits;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: Not applicable--is
being measured.
Performance measure: Service provision (briefings);
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Performance at 21
sites is being documented during site visits;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: Not applicable--is
being measured.
Performance measure: Forecast accuracy;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Not measured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: More work is
needed to determine how to measure accuracy.
Performance measure: Customer satisfaction;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Not measured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: FAA has not
approved this measure; in addition, NWS officials stated they do not
currently have the resources to develop and implement this measure.
Performance measure: Service delivery conformity;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Not measured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: FAA has not
approved this measure.
Performance measure: Timeliness of on-demand services;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Not measured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: FAA has not
approved this measure.
Performance measure: Training completion;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Not measured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: FAA has not
approved this measure.
Performance measure: Product consistency;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Not measured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: This product has
not yet been developed.
Performance measure: Timeliness of information updates;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Not measured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: This product has
not yet been developed.
Performance measure: Product availability;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Not measured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: This product has
not yet been developed.
Performance measure: Timeliness of management reports on the
restructuring;
Status of efforts to identify baseline performance: Not measured;
NWS reason for not capturing a performance baseline: These reports
involve an initiative that has not yet been approved.
Source: GAO analysis of NWS and FAA data.
[End of table]
While 4 of the potential measures are tied to new products or services
under the restructuring, the other 5 could be measured using current
products and services. For example, accuracy and customer satisfaction
are measures that could be tracked for current operations. NWS
continually measures the accuracy of a range of weather products--
including hurricane and tornado forecasts. Customer satisfaction
measures could be determined by surveying the FAA managers who receive
the aviation weather products.
It is important to obtain an understanding of the current level of
performance in these measures before beginning any efforts to
restructure aviation weather services. Without an understanding of the
current level of performance, NWS and FAA will not be able to measure
the success or failure of any changes they make to the center weather
service unit operations. As a result, any changes to the current
structure could degrade aviation operations and safety--and the
agencies may not know it.
NWS and FAA Face Challenges in Efforts to Modify the Current Aviation
Weather Structure:
NWS and FAA face challenges in their efforts to modify the current
aviation weather structure. These include challenges associated with
(1) interagency collaboration, (2) defining requirements, and (3)
aligning any changes with the Next Generation Air Transportation System
(NextGen)--a long-term initiative to increase the efficiency of the
national airspace system. Specifically, the two agencies have had
difficulties in interagency collaboration and requirements development
leading to an inability to reach agreement on a way forward. In
addition, the restructuring proposals have not been aligned with the
national strategic vision for the future air transportation system.
Looking forward, if a proposal is accepted, the agencies could face
three additional challenges in implementing the proposal, including (1)
developing a feasible schedule that includes adequate time for
stakeholder involvement, (2) undertaking a comprehensive demonstration
to ensure no services are degraded, and (3) effectively reconfiguring
the infrastructure and technologies to the new structure. Unless and
until these challenges are addressed, the proposed restructuring of
aviation weather services at en route centers poses new risks and has
little chance of success.
Interagency Collaboration:
To date, FAA and NWS have encountered challenges in interagency
collaboration. We have previously reported on key practices that can
help enhance and sustain interagency collaboration.[Footnote 8] The
practices generally consist of two or more agencies defining a common
outcome, establishing joint strategies to achieve the outcome, agreeing
upon agency roles and responsibilities, establishing compatible
policies and procedures to operate across agency boundaries, and
developing mechanisms to monitor, evaluate, and report the results of
collaborative efforts.
While NWS and FAA have established policies and procedures for
operating across agencies through the interagency agreement and have
initiated efforts to establish a baseline of performance for selected
measures through their ongoing site evaluations, the agencies have not
defined a common outcome, established joint strategies to achieve the
outcome, or agreed upon agency responsibilities. Instead, the agencies
have demonstrated an inability to work together to resolve issues and
to accomplish meaningful change. Specifically, since 2005, FAA has
requested that NWS restructure its aviation weather services three
times, and then rejected NWS's proposals twice. Further, after
requesting extensions twice, NWS provided its proposal to FAA in June
2009. As a result, it is now almost 4 years since FAA first initiated
efforts to improve NWS aviation weather services and the agencies have
not yet agreed on what needs to be changed and how it will be changed.
Table 8 lists key events.
Table 8: Key Events in FAA and NWS Interactions:
Time frame: September 2005;
Activity: FAA requested that NWS restructure its aviation weather
services to consolidate operations in a smaller number of sites at a
reduced cost.
Time frame: October 2006;
Activity: NWS provided a proposal to FAA on how to restructure aviation
weather services; also, FAA administered a market study to determine
whether the private sector could provide remote aviation weather
services.
Time frame: April 2007;
Activity: FAA rejected NWS's proposal because it did not consolidate
the offices to a smaller number of sites and it involved higher
training costs. At that time, FAA decided to revise its requirements
for aviation weather provided at the center weather service units.
Time frame: December 2007;
Activity: FAA provided NWS with a new set of aviation weather
requirements.
Time frame: May 2008;
Activity: NWS provided FAA with three proposals to restructure the
center weather service units.
Time frame: September 2008;
Activity: FAA rejected all three proposals and sent NWS back to the
drawing board to create a hybrid solution at a lower cost by December
2008.
Time frame: December 2008;
Activity: NWS requested and FAA approved a 60-day extension on NWS's
proposal deadline to address public misperceptions regarding the
changes.
Time frame: February 2009;
Activity: NWS requested a 60-day extension on its proposal deadline to
allow the new NOAA administrator time to work with the then-unnamed FAA
administrator on the consolidation. FAA approved a 30-day extension.
Time frame: June 2009;
Activity: NWS provided FAA with a proposal that would consolidate 20 of
21 center weather service units into two locations.
Source: GAO analysis of FAA and NWS data.
[End of table]
Until the agencies agree on a common outcome, establish joint
strategies to achieve the outcome, and agree on respective agency
responsibilities, they are unlikely to move forward in efforts to
restructure weather services. Without sound interagency collaboration,
both FAA and NWS will continue to spend time and resources proposing
and rejecting options rather than implementing solutions.
Defining Requirements:
The two agencies' difficulties in determining how to proceed with their
restructuring plans are due in part to a lack of stability in FAA's
requirements for center weather service units. According to best
practices of leading organizations, requirements describe the
functionality needed to meet user needs and perform as intended in the
operational environment.[Footnote 9] A disciplined process for
developing and managing requirements can help reduce the risks
associated with developing or acquiring a system or product.
FAA released its revised requirements in December 2007 and NWS
subsequently provided proposals to meet these requirements. However,
FAA rejected all three of NWS's proposals in September 2008 on the
basis that the costs of the proposals were too high, even though cost
was not specified in FAA's requirements. NWS's latest proposal is based
on FAA's December 2007 requirements as well as detailed discussions
held between the two agencies in October 2008. However, FAA has not
revised its requirements to reflect the guidance provided to NWS in
those discussions, including reported guidance on handling the Alaska
center and moving to the two-center approach. Without formal
requirements developed prior to the development of the new products and
services, FAA runs the risk of procuring products and services that do
not fully meet its users' needs or perform as intended. In addition,
NWS risks continued investments in trying to create a product for FAA
without clear information on what the agency wants.
Alignment with the Next Generation Air Transportation System:
Neither FAA nor NWS has ensured that the restructuring of the center
weather service units fits with the national vision for NextGen--a long-
term initiative to transition FAA from the current radar-based system
to an aircraft-centered, satellite-based system. Our prior work on
enterprise architectures shows that connecting strategic planning with
program and system solutions can increase the chances that an
organization's operational and information technology environments will
be configured to optimize mission performance.[Footnote 10] Our
experience with federal agencies has shown that investing in
information technology without defining these investments in the
context of a larger, strategic vision often results in systems that are
duplicative, not well integrated, and unnecessarily costly to maintain
and interface.
The Joint Planning and Development Office[Footnote 11] is responsible
for planning and coordinating NextGen. As part of this program, the
Joint Planning and Development Office envisions restructuring air
traffic facilities, including en route centers, across the country as
well as transitioning to new technologies. However, NWS and FAA efforts
to restructure the center weather service units have not been aligned
with the Joint Planning and Development Office's vision for
transforming air traffic control under the NextGen program.
Specifically, the chair of NextGen's weather group stated that Joint
Planning and Development Office officials have not evaluated NWS's and
FAA's plans for restructuring the center weather service units, and
have not been asked to do so.
Other groups within FAA are responsible for aligning the agency's
enterprise architecture with the NextGen vision through annual roadmaps
that largely define near-and mid-term initiatives.[Footnote 12]
However, recent roadmaps for aviation weather do not include any
discussion of plans to restructure the center weather service units or
the potential impact that such a change could have on aviation weather
systems. Additionally, in its proposal, NWS stated that it followed
FAA's guidance to avoid tightly linking the transition schedule to
NextGen's expected initial operating capability in 2013, but
recommended doing so since the specific role of the center weather
service units in NextGen operations is unknown.
Until the agencies ensure that changes to the center weather service
units fit within the strategic-level and implementation plans for
NextGen, any changes to the current structure could result in wasted
efforts and resources.
Schedule Development:
Looking forward, if a proposal is accepted, both agencies could also
face challenges in developing a feasible schedule that includes
adequate time for stakeholder involvement. NWS estimated a 3-year
transition time frame from current operations to the two-center
approach. FAA officials commented they would like to have the two-
center approach in place by 2012. However, NWS may have difficulty in
meeting the transition time frames because activities that need to be
conducted serially are planned concurrently within the 3-year schedule.
For example, NWS may need to negotiate with its union before
implementing changes that affect working conditions--such as moving
operations from an en route center to a remote location.[Footnote 13]
NWS officials acknowledge the risk that these negotiations can be
prolonged and sometimes take years to complete. If the proposal is
accepted, it will be important for NWS to identify activities that must
be conducted before others in order to build a feasible schedule.
Demonstrating No Degradation of Service:
If a proposal is accepted, both agencies could face challenges in
demonstrating that existing services will not be degraded during the
restructuring. In its proposal, NWS identified preliminary plans to
demonstrate the new operational concept before implementing it in order
to ensure there is no degradation of service. Key steps included
establishing a detailed demonstration plan, conducting risk mitigation
activities, and implementing a demonstration that is to last at least 9
months. NWS also proposed that the demonstration will include an
independent evaluation by a team of government and industry both before
the demonstration, to determine if the demonstration is adequate to
validate the new concept of operations, and after, to determine the
success of the demonstration. In addition, throughout the 9-month
demonstration, NWS plans to have the independent team periodically
provide feedback, recommendations, and corrective actions.
However, NWS has not yet defined all of the performance measures it
will use to determine whether the prototype is successful. In its
proposal, NWS stated that the agencies will begin to document
performance metrics and develop and refine evaluation criteria during
the demonstration. If NWS waits to define evaluation criteria during
the evaluation, it may not have baseline metrics needed to compare to
the demonstration results. Without baseline metrics, NWS may be unable
to determine whether the demonstration has degraded service or not.
Technology Transition:
Both agencies could face challenges in effectively transitioning the
infrastructure and technologies to the new consolidated structure, if a
proposal is accepted. In its proposal, NWS planned to move its
operations from 20 en route centers to two sites within 3 years.
However, to do so, the agencies will need to modify their aviation
weather systems and develop a communications infrastructure.
Specifically, NWS and FAA will need to modify or acquire systems to
allow both current and new products for an expanded view of the
country. Additionally, NWS will need to develop continuous two-way
communications in lieu of having staff on site at each en route center.
NWS has recognized the infrastructure as a challenge, and plans to
mitigate the risk through continuous dialogue with FAA. However, if
interagency collaboration does not improve, attempting to coordinate
the systems and technology of the two agencies may prove difficult and
further delay the schedule.
Conclusions:
For several years, FAA and NWS have explored ways to improve the
operations of the center weather service units by consolidating
operations and providing remote services. Meanwhile, the two agencies
have to make a decision on the interagency agreement, which will expire
at the end of September 2009. If FAA and NWS are to create a new
interagency agreement that incorporates key dates within the proposal,
decisions on the proposal will have to be made quickly.
An important component of any effort to improve operations is a solid
understanding of current performance. However, FAA and NWS are not
working to identify the current level of performance in five measures
that are applicable to current operations. Until the agencies have an
understanding of the current level of performance, they will not be
able to measure the success or failure of any changes to the center
weather service unit operations. As a result, any changes to the
current structure could degrade aviation operations and safety--and the
agencies may not know it.
If the agencies move forward with plans to restructure aviation weather
services, they face significant challenges including a poor record of
interagency collaboration, undocumented requirements, and a lack of
assurance that this plan fits in the broader vision of NextGen.
Moreover, efforts to implement the restructuring will require a
feasible schedule, a comprehensive demonstration, and a solid plan for
technology transition. Until these challenges are addressed, the
proposed restructuring of aviation weather services at en route centers
has little chance of success.
Recommendations for Executive Action:
To improve the aviation weather products and services provided at FAA's
en route centers, we are making six recommendations to the Secretaries
of Commerce and Transportation. Specifically, we are recommending that
the Secretaries direct the NWS and FAA administrators, respectively,
to:
* immediately identify the current level of performance for the five
potential measures that could be identified under current operations
(forecast accuracy, customer satisfaction, service delivery conformity,
timeliness of on-demand services, and training completion) so that
there will be a baseline from which to measure the impact of any
proposed operational changes;
* establish and approve a set of performance measures for the center
weather service units;
* improve interagency collaboration by defining a common outcome,
establishing joint strategies to achieve the outcome, and agreeing upon
each agency's responsibilities;
* establish and finalize requirements for aviation weather services at
en route centers;
* ensure that any proposed organizational changes are aligned with
NextGen initiatives by seeking a review by the Joint Program
Development Office responsible for developing the NextGen vision; and:
* before moving forward with any proposed operational changes, address
implementation challenges by:
- developing a feasible schedule that includes adequate time for
stakeholder involvement,
- undertaking a comprehensive demonstration to ensure no services are
degraded, and:
- effectively transitioning the infrastructure and technologies to the
new consolidated structure.
Agency Comments and Our Evaluation:
The Department of Commerce provided written comments on a draft of this
report, signed by the Secretary of Commerce (see appendix II). In the
department's letter, NOAA agreed with our recommendations and provided
additional information on steps the agency has taken or plans to take
to address the recommendations. For example, the agency reported that
it is working with FAA to refine its baseline metrics and plans to have
baseline metrics in place by the end of fiscal year 2009. NWS also
plans to establish a Quality Assurance Manager to work with FAA to
develop additional measures and metrics as appropriate. In addition,
NOAA reported that since submitting its proposal in May 2008 and
receiving a summary of our findings in June 2009, NWS and FAA have made
progress in working together. Specifically, NWS has assigned a liaison
to the FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center, met with
officials from the Joint Planning and Development Office to discuss the
linkage of plans for the center weather service units and NextGen, and
held discussions to strengthen the NWS and FAA partnership.
The Department of Transportation's Deputy Director of Audit Relations
provided comments on a draft of this report via e-mail. In those
comments, she noted that the department agreed to consider our
recommendations. In addition, she noted a slight concern involving our
discussion of the alignment of plans to restructure the center weather
service units with NextGen. Specifically, the department noted that
current NextGen plans (1) include modifications to the weather systems
used by center weather service units and (2) ensure the delivery of the
functions currently provided by center weather service units. However,
these statements do not alter the agencies' need to align any
restructuring plans with the NextGen initiative--and that has not
occurred. NextGen roadmaps do not include any discussion of plans to
restructure the center weather service units or the potential impact
that such a change could have on aviation weather systems. The
importance of this alignment is underscored by the NWS Director's
recommendation to FAA to provide linkage between restructuring plans
and NextGen plans since the specific role of the center weather service
units during NextGen operations is not yet known.
Both departments also provided technical comments that we incorporated
as appropriate.
We are sending copies of this report to interested congressional
committees, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Transportation,
the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and other
interested parties. In addition, this report will be available at no
charge on the GAO Web site at [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov].
If you have any questions about this report, please contact me at (202)
512-9286 or by e-mail at pownerd@gao.gov. Contact points for our
Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on
the last page of this report. GAO staff who made major contributions to
this report are listed in appendix III.
Sincerely,
Signed by:
David A. Powner:
Director, Information Technology Management Issues:
[End of section]
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology:
The objectives of our review were to (1) determine the status and plans
of efforts to restructure the center weather service units, (2)
evaluate efforts to establish a baseline of the current performance
provided by center weather service units so that the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) and National Weather Service (NWS) can ensure that
any operational changes do not degrade aviation weather services, and
(3) evaluate challenges to restructuring the center weather service
units.
To determine the status of NWS's plans for restructuring the center
weather service units, we reviewed the current interagency agreement,
FAA's proposed requirements, and NWS's draft and final proposals for
addressing FAA's requirements. We analyzed NWS's draft transition
schedules, cost proposals, and evaluation plans. We also interviewed
NWS and FAA officials to obtain clarifications on these plans.
To evaluate the agencies' efforts to establish a baseline of the
current performance provided by center weather service units, we
reviewed documentation including FAA's performance standards, the
current interagency agreement, NWS's restructuring proposals and
Quality Assurance Surveillance Plan, and the agencies' plans for
evaluating the centers. We compared the agencies' plans for creating a
baseline of current performance with best practices for performance
management by the Department of the Navy and General Services
Administration.[Footnote 14] We also interviewed NWS and FAA officials
involved in establishing a baseline of current performance provided by
center weather service units.
To evaluate challenges to restructuring the center weather service
units, we reviewed agency documentation, including FAA's requirements
document and NWS's proposals to restructure the center weather service
units. We also reviewed planning documents for the Next Generation Air
Transportation System. We compared these documents with best practices
for system development and requirements management from the Capability
Maturity Model® Integration for Development;[Footnote 15] and with
GAO's best practices in interagency collaboration and architecture
planning.[Footnote 16] In addition, we interviewed NWS, FAA, and Joint
Planning and Development Office officials regarding challenges to
restructuring the center weather service units.
We performed our work at FAA and NWS headquarters offices, and FAA's
Air Traffic Control System Command Center in the Washington, D.C.,
metropolitan area. We conducted this performance audit from August 2008
to September 2009, in accordance with generally accepted government
auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform
the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a
reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit
objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable
basis for findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
[End of section]
Appendix II: Comments from the Department of Commerce:
United States Department Of Commerce:
The Secretary of Commerce:
Washington, D.C. 20230:
August 11, 2009:
Mr. David A. Powner:
Director:
Information Technology Management Issues:
U.S. Government Accountability Office:
441 G Street, NW:
Washington, DC 20548:
Dear Mr. Powner:
Thank you for the opportunity to review and comment on the Government
Accountability Office's draft report entitled "Aviation Weather: FAA
and the National Weather Service Are Considering Plans to Consolidate
Weather Service Offices, But Face Significant Challenges" (GAO-09-761).
On behalf of the Department of Commerce, I have enclosed the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's programmatic comments to the
draft report.
Sincerely,
Signed by:
Gary Looke:
Enclosure:
[End of letter]
Department of Commerce:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Comments on the Draft
Government Accountability Office Report Entitled "Aviation Weather: FAA
and the National Weather Service Are Considering Plans to Consolidate
Weather Service Offices, But Face Significant Challenges" (GAO-09-761,
September 2009):
General Comments:
The Department of Commerce and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) appreciate the opportunity to review this report
on the restructuring of aviation weather services. We have some general
comments regarding collaboration between NOAA's National Weather
Service (NWS) and the Department of Transportation's Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA), which are presented below.
Page 23, second paragraph, second sentence:
We recommend modifying the sentence "Instead, the agencies have
demonstrated an inability to work together to resolve issues and to
accomplish meaningful change" to: "Although there has been an
improvement over the last year, the agencies have been unable to work
together to resolve issues and to accomplish meaningful change." Since
submitting our original response to FAA in May 2008 and based on
initial Government Accountability Office (GAO) feedback, NWS and FAA
have made significant progress in working together towards a common
goal of accomplishing meaningful change. The two agencies are now
working collaboratively, as evidenced by: the detailing of a senior NWS
liaison to the FAA Command Center; collaboration with officials from
the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) on center weather
service unit (CWSU) plans and their subsequent linkage to the Next
Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen); and collaborative
discussions at the senior executive level to strengthen NWS-FAA
partnerships.
Page 25, last paragraph:
NOAA agrees that strategic planning needs to be connected with program
and system solutions. To that end, NWS and FAA are working
collaboratively with regard to NextGen and are developing the necessary
linkages to ensure that the operational and IT environments will be
configured to optimize mission performance in the NextGen era.
NOAA Response to GAO Recommendations:
The draft GAO report states: "To improve the aviation weather products
and services provided at FAA's en route centers, we are making six
recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and Transportation.
Specifically, we are recommending that the Secretaries direct the NWS
and FAA administrators, respectively, to:"
Recommendation 1: "Immediately identify the current level of
performance for the five potential measures that could be identified
under current operations (forecast accuracy, customer satisfaction,
service delivery conformity, timeliness of on-demand services, and
training completion) so that there will be a baseline from which to
measure the impact of any proposed operational changes."
NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with this recommendation and will have
baseline metrics developed by the end of fiscal year 2009. NWS will
continue to work with FAA to refine these baseline metrics, as
appropriate.
Recommendation 2: "Establish and approve a set of performance measures
for the center weather service units."
NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with this recommendation. NWS is working
collaboratively with FAA to develop and track the metrics stated in the
first GAO recommendation. In addition, NWS is establishing a position,
Quality Assurance Manager, to work with FAA to develop additional
metrics and measures, as appropriate.
Recommendation 3: "Improve interagency collaboration by defining a
common outcome, establishing joint strategies to achieve the outcome,
and agreeing upon each agency's responsibilities."
NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with this recommendation. NWS will work
collaboratively with FAA to ensure further clarity in the definition of
roles and responsibilities, and will continue to work towards specific
objectives and expected outcomes related to the CWSU program.
Recommendation 4: "Establish and finalize requirements for aviation
weather services at en route centers."
NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with this recommendation. NWS has worked
with FAA to identify and document requirements and will ensure that any
changes that have occurred based on the NWS-FAA collaboration are
reflected in updated requirements documents.
Recommendation 5: "Ensure that any proposed organizational changes are
aligned with NextGen initiatives by seeking a review by the Joint
Program Development Office responsible for developing the NextGen
vision."
NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with this recommendation. NWS has worked
with JPDO; however, we recognize that tighter collaboration is needed.
The NWS team working on the CWSU response held a meeting on July 14,
2009, with the JPDO official mentioned in the GAO statement of facts.
This JPDO official reviewed the current NWS response to FAA and has
provided comments. We will continue to work with JPDO to ensure
successful alignment with NextGen.
Recommendation 6: "Before moving forward with any proposed operational
changes, address implementation challenges by:
* developing a feasible schedule that includes adequate time for
stakeholder involvement;
* undertaking a comprehensive demonstration to ensure no services are
degraded; and;
* effectively transitioning the infrastructure and technologies to the
new consolidated structure."
NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with this recommendation and notes the
following:
1. NWS has proposed a schedule intended to allow for adequate time for
stakeholder and independent third-party assessment.
2. NWS has proposed a comprehensive nine-month demonstration and plans
to work with FAA and independent and neutral experts to establish
sustainable metrics to measure service delivery (including performance
and quality).
3. NWS has proposed a transition plan intended to adequately address
infrastructure and technology changes.
NWS will take appropriate steps to ensure relevant documents clearly
articulate these plans.
[End of section]
Appendix III: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
GAO Contact:
David A. Powner, (202) 512-9286, or pownerd@gao.gov:
Staff Acknowledgments:
In addition to the contact person named above, Colleen Phillips,
Assistant Director; Gerard Aflague; Kate Agatone; Neil Doherty; Rebecca
Eyler; and Jessica Waselkow made key contributions to this report.
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] These centers include the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction Central Operations, Aviation Weather Center, Environmental
Modeling Center, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Ocean
Prediction Center, Storm Prediction Center, Tropical Prediction Center/
National Hurricane Center, Climate Prediction Center, and Space
Environment Center.
[2] FAA is also involved in a longer-term initiative to increase the
efficiency of the national airspace system and to improve its overall
safety. This initiative, called the Next Generation Air Transportation
System, is a joint effort of the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, the White House Office of Science and Technology
Policy, and the Departments of Transportation, Homeland Security,
Defense, and Commerce. FAA anticipates that this initiative may lead to
major changes in the aviation weather program that would supersede its
current restructuring efforts.
[3] GAO, Aviation Weather: FAA Is Reevaluating Services at Key Centers;
Both FAA and the National Weather Service Need to Better Ensure Product
Quality, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-258]
(Washington, D.C.: Jan. 11, 2008).
[4] NWS sought two extensions to the December 2008 deadline in order to
allow NWS and FAA a chance to address public misperceptions, to brief
the incoming administration, and to arrange discussions between the
appropriate NWS and FAA executives.
[5] NWS proposed that the center weather service unit located in
Anchorage, Alaska, remain unchanged.
[6] Department of the Navy, Office of the Chief Information Officer,
Guide for Developing and Using Information Technology (IT) Performance
Measurements (Washington, D.C., October 2001); General Services
Administration, Office of Governmentwide Policy, Performance-Based
Management: Eight Steps To Develop and Use Information Technology
Performance Measures Effectively (Washington, D.C., 1996).
[7] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-08-258].
[8] GAO, Results-Oriented Government: Practices that Can Help Enhance
and Sustain Collaboration among Federal Agencies, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-15] (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 21,
2005).
[9] Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute,
Capability Maturity Model® Integration for Development, Version 1.2
(Pittsburgh, Pa., August 2006). Capability Maturity Model® and
Capability Maturity Modeling are registered in the U.S. Patent and
Trademark Office. CMM is a service mark of Carnegie Mellon University.
[10] GAO, Enterprise Architecture: Leadership Remains Key to
Establishing and Leveraging Architectures for Organizational
Transformation, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-831]
(Washington, D.C.: Aug. 14, 2006).
[11] The Joint Planning and Development Office has multiple federal
partners, including FAA; the Departments of Transportation, Commerce,
Defense, and Homeland Security; the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration; and the White House Office of Science and Technology
Policy.
[12] These groups include the NextGen and Operations Planning Service
Unit's Aviation Weather Office, Systems Engineering Office, and NextGen
Integration and Implementation Office.
[13] NWS's agreement with its union includes the need to negotiate on
the impact and implementation of any changes affecting working
conditions before those changes can be implemented. As such, any effort
to realign the center weather service units will involve negotiations
between union employees and NWS management.
[14] Department of the Navy, Office of the Chief Information Officer,
Guide for Developing and Using Information Technology (IT) Performance
Measurements (Washington, D.C., October 2001); General Services
Administration, Office of Governmentwide Policy, Performance-Based
Management: Eight Steps To Develop and Use Information Technology
Performance Measures Effectively (Washington, D.C., 1996).
[15] Carnegie Mellon University Software Engineering Institute,
Capability Maturity Model® Integration for Development, Version 1.2
(Pittsburgh, Pa., August 2006).
[16] GAO, Results-Oriented Government: Practices that Can Help Enhance
and Sustain Collaboration among Federal Agencies, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-15] (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 21,
2005); Enterprise Architecture: Leadership Remains Key to Establishing
and Leveraging Architectures for Organizational Transformation,
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-831] (Washington, D.C.:
Aug. 14, 2006).
[End of section]
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