Energy Efficiency
Potential Fuel Savings Generated by a National Speed Limit Would Be Influenced by Many Other Factors
Gao ID: GAO-09-153R November 7, 2008
Gasoline prices are volatile and have increased greatly over the last several years, before dropping again recently. The national average of regular grade retail gasoline prices increased from about $2.24 the week of January 2, 2006, to a peak of $4.11 the week of July 14, 2008, an increase of almost 84 percent, before dropping to about $2.40 the week of November 3, 2008. High fuel prices have focused attention on conservation. Congress previously used a national speed limit as an approach to conserve fuel when, in 1974, it provided for a national 55 mile per hour (mph) speed limit to reduce gasoline consumption in response to the 1973 Arab oil embargo. The law prohibited federal funding of certain highway projects in any state with a maximum speed limit in excess of 55 mph. In 1987, Congress allowed states to raise the maximum speed limit to 65 mph on rural interstate routes. In 1995, the 55 mph speed limit was repealed. Since then, states have been free to set speed limits without the loss of federal highway funds. Congress expressed interest in obtaining information on using a national speed limit to reduce fuel consumption. In response to the request, we reviewed existing literature and consulted knowledgeable stakeholders on the following: (1) What is the relationship between speed and the fuel economy of vehicles? (2) How might reducing the speed limit affect fuel use?
For a vehicle traveling at high speed, reducing its speed increases fuel economy. In general, at speeds over approximately 35 to 45 mph, if a vehicle reduces its speed by 5 mph, its fuel economy can increase by about 5 to 10 percent, because air resistance, or drag, increases exponentially as a vehicle goes faster. Conversely, air resistance diminishes more rapidly as a vehicle slows down, thus increasing its fuel economy. According to existing literature and knowledgeable stakeholders, there is no single speed that optimizes fuel economy for all vehicles. Optimal speed for fuel economy for individual vehicles ranges widely, but is generally between 30 and 60 mph, depending on a vehicle's characteristics. However, a vehicle's fuel economy also depends on other factors besides air resistance. Factors that enhance fuel economy include engine efficiency enhancements (e.g., fuel injection), electronic and computer controls, more efficient transmissions, and hybrid technology. However, other factors decrease fuel economy. In general, over the last 2 decades, fuel economy gains resulting from advances in automotive technologies have largely been offset by increases in vehicle weight, performance, and accessory loads. Specifically, vehicles are heavier than in the past, because they are larger and include more technologies. Further, increased accessory loads, such as air conditioning and electronics, have also reduced fuel economy. According to EPA, from 1987 through 2004, on a fleetwide basis, technology innovation was utilized exclusively to support market-driven attributes other than fuel economy, such as performance. Beginning in 2005, however, according to EPA's analysis of fuel economy trends, technology has been used to increase both performance and fuel economy, while keeping vehicle weight relatively constant. Lowering speed limits can potentially reduce total fuel consumption. According to literature we reviewed examining the impact of the national speed limit enacted in 1974, the estimated fuel savings resulting from the 55 mph national speed limit ranged from 0.2 to 3 percent of annual gasoline consumption. According to DOE's 2008 estimate, a national speed limit of 55 mph could yield possible savings of 175,000 to 275,000 barrels of oil per day. This range is consistent with estimates of the impact of the past national speed limit. According to the Energy Information Administration, total U.S. consumption of petroleum for 2007 was about 21 million barrels of oil per day. However, other factors, including drivers' compliance with a reduced speed limit, would affect the actual impact of a lower speed limit on the amount of fuel savings. Reducing the speed limit does not necessarily mean that drivers will comply. Moreover, a national speed limit would not affect many of the miles driven in the United States, such as those in urban areas, where most vehicles are already traveling at lower speeds due to lower speed limits or congestion. Other external conditions also affect fuel economy, such as road conditions, including whether a road is steep or flat, and weather conditions, including wind speed and direction. Finally, other aspects of driver behavior may also affect fuel consumption. The speed limit is only one tool among many for potentially conserving fuel. Certain realities, such as congestion on our nation's roads, how people drive and maintain their vehicles, and emerging technologies, are other potential considerations as the nation looks for options to conserve fuel.
GAO-09-153R, Energy Efficiency: Potential Fuel Savings Generated by a National Speed Limit Would Be Influenced by Many Other Factors
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National Speed Limit Would Be Influenced by Many Other Factors' which
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November 7, 2008:
The Honorable John Warner:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on Private Sector and Consumer Solutions to Global Warming
and Wildlife Protection:
Committee on Environment and Public Works:
United States Senate:
Subject: Energy Efficiency: Potential Fuel Savings Generated by a
National Speed Limit Would Be Influenced by Many Other Factors:
Dear Senator Warner:
Gasoline prices are volatile and have increased greatly over the last
several years, before dropping again recently. The national average of
regular grade retail gasoline prices increased from about $2.24 the
week of January 2, 2006, to a peak of $4.11 the week of July 14, 2008,
an increase of almost 84 percent, before dropping to about $2.40 the
week of November 3, 2008 (see fig. 1).
Figure 1: Weekly U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular Grade, January
2006 through November 2008:
This figure is a line graph showing weekly U.S. retail gasoline prices,
regular grade, January 2006 through November 2008. The X axis
represents the month and date, and the Y axis represents dollars per
gallon.
Jan. 2006: 223.8;
Feb. 2006: 234.2;
Mar. 2006: 233.1;
Apr. 2006: 258.8;
May 2006: 291.9;
June 2006: 289.2;
July 2006: 293.4;
Aug. 2006: 303.8;
Sept. 2006: 272.7;
Oct. 2006: 231;
Nov. 2006: 220;
Dec. 2006: 229.7;
Jan. 2007: 233.4;
Feb. 2007: 219.1;
Mar. 2007: 250.5;
Apr. 2007: 270.7;
May 2007: 305.4;
June 2007: 315.7;
July 2007: 295.9;
Aug. 2007: 283.8;
Sept. 2007: 279.6;
Oct. 2007: 278.8;
Nov. 2007: 301.3;
Dec. 2007: 306.1;
Jan. 2008: 310.9;
Feb. 2008: 297.8;
Mar. 2008: 316.2;
Apr. 2008: 333.2;
May 2008: 361.3;
June 2008: 397.6;
July 2008: 411.4;
Aug. 2008: 388;
Sept. 2008: 368;
Oct. 2008: 348.4;
Nov. 2008: 240.
[See PDF for image]
Source: Energy Information Administration.
Note: Prices are in nominal terms and not adjusted for inflation.
[End of figure]
High fuel prices have focused attention on conservation. Congress
previously used a national speed limit as an approach to conserve fuel
when, in 1974, it provided for a national 55 mile per hour (mph) speed
limit to reduce gasoline consumption in response to the 1973 Arab oil
embargo. The law prohibited federal funding of certain highway projects
in any state with a maximum speed limit in excess of 55 mph.[Footnote
1] In 1987, Congress allowed states to raise the maximum speed limit to
65 mph on rural interstate routes.[Footnote 2] In 1995, the 55 mph
speed limit was repealed.[Footnote 3] Since then, states have been free
to set speed limits without the loss of federal highway funds.
You expressed interest in obtaining information on using a national
speed limit to reduce fuel consumption. In response to your request, we
reviewed existing literature and consulted knowledgeable stakeholders
on the following:
* What is the relationship between speed and the fuel economy of
vehicles?
* How might reducing the speed limit affect fuel use?
To address these two objectives, we relied on the expertise of GAO and
knowledgeable stakeholders to identify the most relevant economic and
transportation literature. Due to limited time and resources, we
reviewed these studies and limited our analyses to light-duty vehicles,
such as cars, sport utility vehicles, and pickup trucks. We identified
the knowledgeable stakeholders from previous relevant GAO work. (For
more details, see encl. I.) We provided the draft to the three agencies
that we spoke to--the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the
Department of Energy (DOE), and the Department of Transportation (DOT)-
-and incorporated relevant technical comments. We did not examine other
aspects of implementing a national speed limit, such as potential
safety impacts.
In summary, according to these stakeholders and the relevant studies,
reducing a vehicle's speed can potentially increase its fuel economy.
However, the extent depends on a vehicle's characteristics, for
example, its size and the efficiency of its engine and transmission.
Furthermore, even though a lowered speed limit could reduce total fuel
consumption, other factors--including driver behavior and road
conditions and congestion--also affect fuel consumption.
According to Literature and Stakeholders, Reducing a Vehicle's Speed
Can Potentially Increase Its Fuel Economy, Depending on the Vehicle's
Characteristics:
For a vehicle traveling at high speed, reducing its speed increases
fuel economy. In general, at speeds over approximately 35 to 45 mph, if
a vehicle reduces its speed by 5 mph, its fuel economy can increase by
about 5 to 10 percent, because air resistance, or drag, increases
exponentially as a vehicle goes faster.[Footnote 4] Conversely, air
resistance diminishes more rapidly as a vehicle slows down, thus
increasing its fuel economy.
According to existing literature and knowledgeable stakeholders, there
is no single speed that optimizes fuel economy for all vehicles.
Optimal speed for fuel economy for individual vehicles ranges widely,
but is generally between 30 and 60 mph, depending on a vehicle's
characteristics. For example, according to the most recent published
data--a 1997 study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, commissioned by
the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), that examined fuel economy
at different speeds for nine automobiles and light trucks from model
years 1988 through 1997--the optimal fuel economy for a 1994 Jeep Grand
Cherokee, a sport-utility vehicle, would be about 26 miles per gallon
at a steady 40 mph. In contrast, in a 2008 internal study by the
Argonne National Laboratory for the Department of Energy (DOE),
examining four vehicles, the optimal fuel economy for a 2005 Toyota
Echo, a subcompact car, is about 69 miles per gallon, achieved when
traveling at a steady 30 mph. Table 1 shows the speeds at which the 13
vehicles included in those two studies achieve their optimal fuel
economy.
Table 1: Optimal Speed for Fuel Economy for Studied Vehicles:
Vehicle and year: 1997 Toyota Celica[A];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 25;
Miles per gallon: 52.6.
Vehicle and year: 2005 Escape[B];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 30;
Miles per gallon: 32.4.
Vehicle and year: 1993 Subaru Legacy[A];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 30;
Miles per gallon: 39.7.
Vehicle and year: 2005 Echo[B];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 30;
Miles per gallon: 69.0.
Vehicle and year: 1994 Jeep Grand Cherokee[A];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 40;
Miles per gallon: 25.5.
Vehicle and year: 2005 Focus[B];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 40;
Miles per gallon: 45.1.
Vehicle and year: 1994 Chevrolet Pickup[A];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 45;
Miles per gallon: 27.3.
Vehicle and year: 1995 Geo Prizm[A];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 45;
Miles per gallon: 42.3.
Vehicle and year: 1988 Chevrolet Corsica[A];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 50;
Miles per gallon: 31.2.
Vehicle and year: 2005 Jaguar XJ8[B];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 50;
Miles per gallon: 37.8.
Vehicle and year: 1994 Oldsmobile Cutlass[A];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 55;
Miles per gallon: 29.1.
Vehicle and year: 1994 Mercury Villager[A];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 55;
Miles per gallon: 31.7.
Vehicle and year: 1994 Oldsmobile Olds 88[A];
Optimal steady speed (mph) for fuel economy: 55;
Miles per gallon: 34.6.
Source: GAO analysis of DOE and FHWA data.
Note: This table presents the most recently available data on speed and
fuel economy for individual vehicles from two sources.
[A] B.H. West, R.N. McGill, J.W. Hodgson, S.S. Sluder, D.E. Smith,
Development and Verification of Light-Duty Modal Emissions and Fuel
Consumption Values for Traffic Models. (Washington, D.C.: April 1997),
and additional project data, April 1998.
[B] Unpublished 2008 internal study by the Argonne National Laboratory
for the Department of Energy (DOE).
[End of table]
However, a vehicle's fuel economy also depends on other factors besides
air resistance. Factors that enhance fuel economy include engine
efficiency enhancements (e.g., fuel injection), electronic and computer
controls, more efficient transmissions, and hybrid technology. However,
other factors decrease fuel economy (see fig. 2).
Figure 2: Impact of Automotive Characteristics on Fuel Economy:
This figure is a chart of impact of automotive characteristics on fuel
economy.
Automotive characteristics: Engine efficiency (e.g., fuel injection);
Impact on fuel economy: Increase.
Automotive characteristics: Electronic and computer controls;
Impact on fuel economy: Increase.
Automotive characteristics: More efficient transmissions;
Impact on fuel economy: Increase.
Automotive characteristics: Hybrids;
Impact on fuel economy: Increase.
Automotive characteristics: Heavier vehicles;
Impact on fuel economy: Decrease.
Automotive characteristics: Bigger, more powerful engines;
Impact on fuel economy: Decrease.
Automotive characteristics: Increased accessory loads like air
conditioning and electronics;
Impact on fuel economy: Decrease.
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO.
Note: Impact on fuel economy assumes that all other factors are held
constant.
[End of figure]
In general, over the last 2 decades, fuel economy gains resulting from
advances in automotive technologies have largely been offset by
increases in vehicle weight, performance, and accessory loads.
Specifically, vehicles are heavier than in the past, because they are
larger and include more technologies. For example, average vehicle
weight has increased from 3,220 pounds in 1987 to 4,117 in 2008,
according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).[Footnote 5] In
addition, trends show that recent vehicles, on average, have bigger,
more powerful engines that yield better performance--i.e., acceleration
and greater speed--at the expense of fuel economy. For example,
according to the same EPA report, average horsepower has increased from
118 to 222 over the same period. Further, increased accessory loads,
such as air conditioning and electronics, have also reduced fuel
economy. According to EPA, from 1987 through 2004, on a fleetwide
basis, technology innovation was utilized exclusively to support market-
driven attributes other than fuel economy, such as performance.
Beginning in 2005, however, according to EPA's analysis of fuel economy
trends, technology has been used to increase both performance and fuel
economy, while keeping vehicle weight relatively constant.
According to Literature and Stakeholders, a Reduced Speed Limit Is Only
One of Many Factors That Could Affect Total Fuel Use:
Lowering speed limits can potentially reduce total fuel consumption.
According to literature we reviewed examining the impact of the
national speed limit enacted in 1974, the estimated fuel savings
resulting from the 55 mph national speed limit ranged from 0.2 to 3
percent of annual gasoline consumption. According to DOE's 2008
estimate, a national speed limit of 55 mph could yield possible savings
of 175,000 to 275,000 barrels of oil per day.[Footnote 6] This range is
consistent with estimates of the impact of the past national speed
limit. According to the Energy Information Administration, total U.S.
consumption of petroleum for 2007 was about 21 million barrels of oil
per day.
However, other factors, including drivers' compliance with a reduced
speed limit, would affect the actual impact of a lower speed limit on
the amount of fuel savings. Reducing the speed limit does not
necessarily mean that drivers will comply. In fact, in 1975, under the
previous national speed limit, about half of the states reported more
drivers exceeding the national speed limit of 55 mph than complying
with it. States may vary in their ability to enforce the reduced speed
limit, in part due to cost and limited resources, affecting driver
compliance.
Moreover, a national speed limit would not affect many of the miles
driven in the United States, such as those in urban areas, where most
vehicles are already traveling at lower speeds due to lower speed
limits or congestion. According to FHWA, fewer than one quarter of the
vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the United States would likely be
directly affected by a changed speed limit. In addition, congestion
forces some vehicles to travel slowly, no matter what the speed limit,
meaning a reduction would have little or no impact on fuel consumed on
congested roads.
Other external conditions also affect fuel economy, such as road
conditions, including whether a road is steep or flat, and weather
conditions, including wind speed and direction. Finally, other aspects
of driver behavior may also affect fuel consumption. For example,
driver behavior may be affected by fuel prices. Higher prices may cause
people to drive less or purchase more fuel-efficient vehicles.
Similarly, driving at a consistent speed can reduce fuel consumption.
In contrast, aggressive driving such as accelerating or stopping
quickly can increase fuel consumption. In addition, proper vehicle
maintenance--including regularly changing automobile fluids and filters
and properly inflating tires--improves fuel economy.
The speed limit is only one tool among many for potentially conserving
fuel. Certain realities, such as congestion on our nation's roads, how
people drive and maintain their vehicles, and emerging technologies,
are other potential considerations as the nation looks for options to
conserve fuel.
We are sending copies of this report to interested congressional
committees, the Environmental Protection Agency Administrator, the
Secretary of Energy and the Secretary of the Department of
Transportation. We also will make copies available to others on
request. In addition, this report will be available at no charge on the
GAO Web site at [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov].
Sincerely yours,
Signed by:
Mark E. Gaffigan:
Director, Natural Resources and Environment:
Signed by:
Susan A. Fleming:
Director, Physical Infrastructure:
Enclosures-2:
[End of section]
Enclosure I: Scope and Methodology:
To identify literature pertaining to these two objectives, we relied on
the expertise of GAO to conduct an initial search of economic and
transportation literature. Through this search, we identified two
seminal studies that summarized the relevant research through 1997. We
subsequently conducted a search for literature published after 1997 in
databases such as National Technical Information Service (NTIS),
Transportation Research Information Services (TRIS), and EconLit using
key words such as "speed limit" and "energy use." This search
identified additional selected reports and studies issued by federal
and state agencies, transportation and energy research organizations,
and academia. We also interviewed officials from Department of
Transportation, Department of Energy, and Environmental Protection
Agency as well as representatives from various associations with
relevant experience and knowledge and asked them to identify recent
literature that may pertain to our two objectives. We identified the
knowledgeable stakeholders from previous relevant GAO work.
Using these methods, we identified studies that were mentioned in both
the literature and by the knowledgeable stakeholders. However, due to
limited time and resources, we were only able to review a limited
number of studies. As such, we identified a set of key studies from our
list of relevant research to include in our review. We selected these
studies judgmentally based on (1) relevance to the current work and (2)
soundness of the methodology. A GAO economist and a technologist
reviewed the methodology and scientific reasoning of these selected
literature and found them to be sound and sufficiently reliable for the
purposes of this report. Also, we limited our analyses to light-duty
vehicles, such as cars, sport utility vehicles, and pickup trucks. We
did not examine other aspects of implementing a national speed limit,
such as potential safety impacts.
[End of section]
Enclosure II: GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments:
GAO Contact:
Mark Gaffigan (202) 512-3841 or gaffiganm@gao.gov and Susan Fleming
(202) 512-2834 or flemings@gao.gov:
Staff Acknowledgments:
In addition to the contacts named above, key contributors to this
report were Karla Springer and Raymond Sendejas, Assistant Directors;
Cindy Gilbert; Terence C. Lam; Tina Y. Paek; Madhav S. Panwar; Amy
Rosewarne; Ilga Semeiks; Joseph D. Thompson; and Barbara Timmerman.
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] Pub. L. No. 93-239, §2, 87 Stat. 1046-1047 (1974). The prohibition
on funding was extended indefinitely in 1975. Pub. L. No. 93-643, §154,
88 Stat. 2281, 2286 (1975).
[2] Pub. L. No. 100-17, §174, 101 Stat. 132, 218 (1987).
[3] Pub. L. No. 104-59, §205(d), 109 Stat. 568, 577 (1995).
[4] National Research Council, Committee for Study of Impacts of
Highway Capacity Improvement on Air Quality and Energy Consumption,
Special Report 245, Expanding Metropolitan Highways: Implications for
Air Quality and Energy Use (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press,
1995), p. 63.
[5] Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975
through 2008 (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
September 2008)
[6] In calculating these estimates, DOE assumed, among other things, a
compliance rate of 50 percent and that the speed limit would affect 35
percent of on-road (highway) mileage, which means roughly a third of
travel is on roads where a decrease in the speed limit would have an
effect. DOE's estimates include savings from on-road heavy duty trucks.
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