American Battle Monuments Commission
New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates for its Foreign Currency Fluctuation Account
Gao ID: GAO-06-50R October 20, 2005
The conference report for the Fiscal Year 2005 Consolidated Appropriations Act required that we review the past and current methodologies used by the American Battle Monuments Commission (ABMC) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to estimate exchange rates used in preparing the budgets for ABMC's foreign currency fluctuation account. This account is intended to maintain the spending power of funds appropriated for ABMC operations in the event that the U.S. dollar depreciates against the currencies used to pay for these operations, which include designing, constructing, operating, and maintaining permanent American military burial grounds in foreign countries. In light of recent low foreign currency fluctuation account levels, the appropriations committees' conferees were concerned with the failure of OMB to adequately address the effect of foreign currency rate fluctuations on ABMC in its original budget submission for fiscal year 2005, or through a supplementary budget request. In response to this mandate, we examined (1) ABMC's method of forecasting exchange rates in preparing budgets for the foreign currency fluctuation account prior to its fiscal year 2006 budget submission and OMB guidance on that method; (2) changes that occurred in the ABMC foreign currency fluctuation fund as the dollar depreciated in value relative to the currencies used by ABMC in its operations; and (3) changes that ABMC made in preparing its fiscal year 2006 budget submission.
Prior to the budget proposal that it submitted for fiscal year 2006, ABMC used the same exchange rates as DOD did to estimate the amount of foreign currency per dollar for funding the foreign currency fluctuation account. In a prior report we explained DOD's approach, which allowed staff to exercise judgment in selecting often highly favorable exchange rates published in the DOD Program Budget Decision 660 (DOD PBD 660) for each fiscal year. We criticized this approach because it produced unrealistic results and allowed for substantial judgment and discretion in the selection of exchange rates for budgeting purposes. However, OMB concurred with ABMC and did not question this method. Further, OMB does not provide guidance, such as a central exchange rate forecast or a consistent forecasting method, for federal agencies to use in preparing their budgets. According to OMB officials, each agency is responsible for determining the appropriate exchange rate to convert its expected foreign currency spending into dollars for budgeting purposes. The administration does not publish foreign currency projections, according to OMB, because they could affect foreign currency markets. Beginning in fiscal year 2002, the euro appreciated substantially against the dollar and losses steadily decreased ABMC's currency fluctuation account as the commission increasingly drew upon it. ABMC continued to use DOD PBD 660 to set foreign currency rates and did not include a request for an additional appropriation for the account as part of its budget submission for fiscal years 2003 and 2004. Further, the President's budget did not request funding for the foreign currency fluctuation fund for fiscal year 2005. However, as fiscal year 2004 progressed, ABMC recognized that the account had fallen to a level that necessitated curtailing overall commission spending. Congress provided about $12 million in supplemental appropriations for fiscal year 2005. In the President's fiscal year 2006 budget submission, $15.25 million was requested for ABMC's foreign currency fluctuation account. In its budget submission for fiscal year 2006, ABMC stopped using exchange rates set by DOD PBD 660; instead, it used the exchange rate that prevailed on the date when it had to make its final submission to OMB. This method does not depend on staff judgment and discretion; we believe avoiding such judgment and discretion is appropriate in selecting exchange rates for budgetary purposes. Given the difficulty of forecasting exchange rates, this approach is reasonable.
GAO-06-50R, American Battle Monuments Commission: New Approach to Forecasting Exchange Rates for its Foreign Currency Fluctuation Account
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Washington, DC 20548:
United States Government Accountability Office:
October 19, 2005:
The Honorable Thad Cochran:
Chairman:
The Honorable Robert C. Byrd:
Ranking Minority Member:
Committee on Appropriations:
United States Senate:
The Honorable Kay Bailey Hutchison: Chairman:
The Honorable Dianne Feinstein:
Ranking Minority Member:
Subcommittee on Military Construction and Veterans Affairs: Committee
on Appropriations:
United States Senate:
The Honorable Jerry Lewis:
Chairman:
The Honorable David R. Obey:
Ranking Minority Member:
Committee on Appropriations:
House of Representatives:
The Honorable James T. Walsh:
Chairman:
The Honorable Chet Edwards:
Ranking Minority Member:
Subcommittee on Military Quality of Life and Veterans Affairs and
Related Agencies: Committee on Appropriations:
House of Representatives:
Subject: American Battle Monuments Commission: New Approach to
Forecasting Exchange Rates for its Foreign Currency Fluctuation
Account:
The conference report for the Fiscal Year 2005 Consolidated
Appropriations Act required that we review the past and current
methodologies used by the American Battle Monuments Commission (ABMC)
and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to estimate exchange
rates used in preparing the budgets for ABMC's foreign currency
fluctuation account.[Footnote 1] This account is intended to maintain
the spending power of funds appropriated for ABMC operations in the
event that the U.S. dollar depreciates against the currencies used to
pay for these operations, which include designing, constructing,
operating, and maintaining permanent American military burial grounds
in foreign countries. In light of recent low foreign currency
fluctuation account levels, the appropriations committees' conferees
were concerned with the failure of OMB to adequately address the effect
of foreign currency rate fluctuations on ABMC in its original budget
submission for fiscal year 2005, or through a supplementary budget
request.
In response to this mandate, we examined (1) ABMC's method of
forecasting exchange rates in preparing budgets for the foreign
currency fluctuation account prior to its fiscal year 2006 budget
submission and OMB guidance on that method; (2) changes that occurred
in the ABMC foreign currency fluctuation fund as the dollar depreciated
in value relative to the currencies used by ABMC in its operations; and
(3) changes that ABMC made in preparing its fiscal year 2006 budget
submission.
To accomplish these objectives we interviewed OMB officials and ABMC's
budget officer, and reviewed ABMC documents and OMB and Department of
Defense (DOD) budget guidance. We also reviewed balances of the ABMC
foreign currency fluctuation account for fiscal years 2000-2005, levels
of the euro-dollar exchange rate over the same period, and ABMC's
budget request for fiscal year 2006. We conducted our work between
April and September 2005 in accordance with generally accepted
government auditing standards.
Results in Brief:
Prior to the budget proposal that it submitted for fiscal year 2006,
ABMC used the same exchange rates as DOD did to estimate the amount of
foreign currency per dollar for funding the foreign currency
fluctuation account. In a prior report[Footnote 2] we explained DOD's
approach, which allowed staff to exercise judgment in selecting often
highly favorable exchange rates published in the DOD Program Budget
Decision 660 (DOD PBD 660) for each fiscal year. We criticized this
approach because it produced unrealistic results and allowed for
substantial judgment and discretion in the selection of exchange rates
for budgeting purposes. However, OMB concurred with ABMC and did not
question this method. Further, OMB does not provide guidance, such as a
central exchange rate forecast or a consistent forecasting method, for
federal agencies to use in preparing their budgets. According to OMB
officials, each agency is responsible for determining the appropriate
exchange rate to convert its expected foreign currency spending into
dollars for budgeting purposes. The administration does not publish
foreign currency projections, according to OMB, because they could
affect foreign currency markets.
Beginning in fiscal year 2002, the euro appreciated substantially
against the dollar and losses steadily decreased ABMC's currency
fluctuation account as the commission increasingly drew upon it (see
fig. 1). ABMC continued to use DOD PBD 660 to set foreign currency
rates and did not include a request for an additional appropriation for
the account as part of its budget submission for fiscal years 2003 and
2004. Further, the President's budget did not request funding for the
foreign currency fluctuation fund for fiscal year 2005. However, as
fiscal year 2004 progressed, ABMC recognized that the account had
fallen to a level that necessitated curtailing overall commission
spending. Congress provided about $12 million in supplemental
appropriations for fiscal year 2005. In the President's fiscal year
2006 budget submission, $15.25 million was requested for ABMC's foreign
currency fluctuation account.
Figure 1: Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate and ABMC Foreign Currency
Fluctuation Account, FY 2000-2005:
[See PDF for image]
[End of figure]
In its budget submission for fiscal year 2006, ABMC stopped using
exchange rates set by DOD PBD 660; instead, it used the exchange rate
that prevailed on the date when it had to make its final submission to
OMB. This method does not depend on staff judgment and discretion; we
believe avoiding such judgment and discretion is appropriate in
selecting exchange rates for budgetary purposes. Given the difficulty
of forecasting exchange rates, this approach is reasonable.
Background:
ABMC was created in 1923 and, as of September 30, 2004, maintained 24
cemeteries as well as 29 monuments, memorials, and markers
commemorating the achievements in battle of the United States Armed
Forces since 1917.[Footnote 3] All the cemeteries are located outside
the United States and inter about 131,000 U.S. military war dead and
U.S. civilians.[Footnote 4] Although ABMC receives appropriations in
dollars, about 70 percent of its funds are expended in foreign
currencies, principally the euro. ABMC also uses the British pound, the
Mexican peso, the Philippine peso, and the Tunisian dinar. ABMC uses
its budget dollars to purchase foreign currencies to pay a substantial
amount of its salaries and expenses.[Footnote 5]
In 1988, Congress created a foreign currency fluctuation account to pay
for ABMC's day-to-day operations if--because of exchange rate
fluctuations occurring after budget submissions to Congress--they
exceeded dollar appropriations[Footnote 6][Footnote 7] According to OMB
officials, few other federal agencies have similar accounts although
the Department of State, the Peace Corps, and other agencies do engage
in foreign currency transactions. Some of these federal agencies that
use foreign currencies do not require large amounts of foreign
currencies in relation to the size of their overall budgets and thus
are more easily able to absorb the impact of a depreciating dollar.
Most federal agencies have to absorb the effects of exchange rate
fluctuation subsequent to budget approval; they do so by reallocating
budgeted amounts or requesting supplemental appropriations. However,
DOD does have a Foreign Currency Fluctuation Defense Account that is
used to cover unforeseen losses due to foreign currency rate
fluctuations.[Footnote 8]
Before Fiscal Year 2006, ABMC Used DOD Method for Estimating Exchange
Rates, Which Produced Unreliable Forecasts:
Prior to the fiscal year 2006 budget, ABMC, with OMB agreement, used
DOD PBD 660 to estimate exchange rates in formulating its budget
request for the foreign currency adjustment account (see table 1). DOD
PBD 660 outlined a method intended to address changes in the dollar in
relation to other currencies after the President's budget was released
so that the correct amount of dollars could be budgeted to maintain the
purchasing power of the appropriation that was provided for in the
budget.
Table 1: Actual Average Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Versus DOD PBD Rates,
FY 2000-2005:
[See PDF for image]
Sources: DOD, ABMC, Federal Reserve, and GAO.
[A] Calculated average during the fiscal year from the January 1, 2000
inauguration of the euro to September 30, 2000.
[B] Not applicable; these budgets were prepared prior to the
inauguration of the euro.
[C] Average calculated through June 30, 2005.
Note: We calculated the actual average euro-dollar rate based on
Federal Reserve data on foreign exchange rates.
[End of table]
In past years, to develop the exchange rates, DOD tracked foreign
currency exchange rates in The Wall Street Journal on a daily basis
during the months immediately preceding the budget submission and then
selected the most favorable foreign currency exchange rates during this
time frame. The most favorable rate was the rate that provided the
highest amount of foreign currency per dollar. For the fiscal year 2004
budget submission, DOD selected the most favorable rates from August
through November 2002. Further, DOD did not revise its rates in its
fiscal year 2005 budget submission.
According to ABMC's budget officer and OMB officials, ABMC's use of DOD
PBD 660 worked reasonably well when the dollar was not quickly
depreciating. Moreover, OMB concurred with ABMC's use of DOD PBD 660
and did not question this method. However, both ABMC's budget officer
and OMB officials noted that ABMC's use of DOD PBD 660 led to serious
problems beginning in fiscal year 2004.
In particular, DOD PBD 660 did not anticipate the significant
depreciation of the dollar against the euro (see again table 1). We
discuss the effects of recent currency fluctuations in more detail in
the next section of this report.
We have criticized DOD's PBD 660 methodology.[Footnote 9] Exchange
rates respond directly to events--tangible and psychological--
including inflation rates, business cycles, interest rates, balance of
payment statistics, political developments, tax laws, stock market
news, inflationary expectations, international investment patterns, and
government and central bank policies. As a result, forecasting exchange
rates is inherently difficult and the methods used to do so must
address multiple and complex variables. In particular, we have noted
that DOD's method did not produce exchange rate forecasts that would
lead to realistic budgets. Unlike ABMC, DOD did continue to request
funding for its currency fluctuation fund. As we reported previously,
the use of the most favorable foreign currency rate underestimates the
impact of foreign currency fluctuations and reduces the dollar amount
in the foreign currency budget when the dollar depreciates relative to
foreign currencies. Because the ABMC foreign currency fluctuation
account is funded according to the exchange rate estimates, when the
estimates are wrong ABMC's spending power diminishes and the commission
must cut overall spending.
[End of table]
According to OMB officials, OMB does not provide guidance to federal
agencies on how to handle foreign currency fluctuations in budget
formulation, and each agency is responsible for determining the
appropriate exchange rate for budgeting purposes. For example, OMB
Circular A-11 does not provide guidance on addressing exchange rate
fluctuations in budgeting.[Footnote 10] The administration does not
publish foreign exchange projections because they could affect currency
markets. According to OMB officials, agencies that have foreign
operations have different amounts of currency exposure to different
currencies. That is, each federal agency that operates outside the
United States has its own mix of spending in foreign currencies,
necessitating agency-specific approaches to accommodating exchange rate
fluctuations in budgeting. According to these officials, at one time,
OMB performed several broad reviews of individual agency approaches,
but no common approach to budgeting for foreign currency risk was
developed for the government as a whole.
Declining Value of the Dollar Depleted ABMC's Foreign Currency; as a
Result, the Account Required an Additional Appropriation:
Because ABMC used the approach in DOD PBD 660 when the dollar was
declining in relation to the euro and ABMC and OMB did not request
appropriations for the fluctuation account in fiscal years 2004 and
2005, ABMC had to curtail overall spending in fiscal year 2005. As we
noted previously, the forecasts derived from DOD PBD 660 underestimated
the dollar's decline relative to the euro. More specifically, ABMC
experienced significant budget problems in fiscal years 2004 and 2005,
when the dollar depreciated substantially against the euro. ABMC would
not have been able to cover its foreign currency obligations under the
estimates of the dollar's value incorporated in the foreign currency
fluctuation account. The foreign currency fluctuation account suffered
losses of more than $4.1 million in fiscal year 2003 and losses of more
than $4.7 million in fiscal year 2004 and the account balance
diminished to less than $1 million at the beginning of fiscal year 2005
(see table 2). With roughly 70 percent of ABMC's spending in foreign
currencies, and about 66 percent of its total budget allocated for
payrolls issued in foreign currencies, the agency did not have any
additional margin if the dollar depreciated substantially.
Table 2: ABMC Foreign Currency Fluctuation Account Activity, FY 2000-
2005:
[See PDF for image]
Sources: OMB and ABMC.
[A] These numbers are as of August 31, 2005, and are unaudited.
[B] Pub. L. No. 108-477 authorized $12 million in appropriations less a
.0080 recission of $96,000.
[C] Numbers shown reflect the net amount of gains or losses in the
foreign currency fluctuation account and the amount of funds
deobligated from prior years and transferred from ABMC's salaries and
expenses account into the foreign currency fluctuation account.
Parentheses indicate a loss.
[End of table]
According to ABMC's budget officer, because of the long time frames
needed to prepare budgets and the uncertainty of currency forecasting,
the commission could not have foreseen the dollar's depreciation during
fiscal years 2004 and 2005. OMB officials and the ABMC budget officer
acknowledged that neither agency requested an additional appropriation
for ABMC's currency fluctuation fund in the fiscal year 2005 budget.
However, during fiscal year 2005, Congress provided additional funding
for the ABMC foreign currency account (about $12 million). OMB did not
issue a Statement of Administration Policy or other communication
objecting to this additional funding.
ABMC Used a Different Method to Prepare Fiscal Year 2006 Budget Request
for Foreign Currency Fluctuation Account:
As a result of the problems incurred when using DOD PBD 660, beginning
with its fiscal year 2006 budget submission, ABMC, with OMB agreement,
began using the exchange rates (principally the euro-dollar rate)
prevailing when final budget numbers must be entered into OMB's budget
system[Footnote 11](see fig. 2). ABMC's budget request for FY 2006 was
$35.3 million for salaries and expenses and $15.25 million for the
foreign currency fluctuation account. In contrast to its previous
method, ABMC's revised approach is reasonable in that it is
nonjudgmental and has a transparent method--criteria that we believe
are appropriate for selecting exchange rates for budgetary purposes.
Further, ABMC and OMB officials told us that they are continuously
evaluating the new ABMC method of budgeting for exchange rate changes
as part of the ongoing budget review process.
More specifically, ABMC and OMB officials told us that the rate they
used in the fiscal year 2006 budget request for salaries and expenses
was based on spending estimates in the foreign currencies, converted
into dollars using the exchange rates prevailing during the budget
formulation process in the summer of 2004. Then, when ABMC was required
to submit its exchange rate estimate for the foreign currency
fluctuation account, the commission applied the rate prevailing in
December 2004. The euro-dollar rate used in the fiscal year 2006 budget
formulation process for the ABMC foreign currency fluctuation account
was €0.72 per $1.00. In contrast, the euro rate prevailing during July
2004 was €0.81 per $1.00, illustrating the potential movement of
exchange rates during preparation of a budget.
Figure 2: Timeline for ABMC's Fiscal Year 2006 Budget Formulation:
[See PDF for image]
[A] Used to develop budget amounts for salaries and expenses. Average
based on July 2004 data.
[B] This number is the average for December 2004 and was used to
develop the foreign currency fluctuation account budget amount.
[End of figure]
Similarly, DOD has changed its approach to forecasting exchange rates
for budget purposes. Rather than using the most favorable or strongest
value of the dollar, DOD recently selected a statistical method
referred to as the "centered weighted average," which combines both a
long-run average of exchange rates and the most recently observed
exchange rates to predict future exchange rates. DOD chose this
approach because it was based on historical and current data and could
be universally replicated; therefore, it was not dependent on
subjective judgment. We recently reported that this was also a
reasonable approach for forecasting foreign currency rates and could
produce a more realistic estimate than DOD's historical
approach.[Footnote 12]
Conclusions:
ABMC has the important charter of overseeing cemeteries located outside
the United States that inter about 131,000 war dead, including overseas
memorials and markers that commemorate the achievements in battle of
the United States Armed Forces since 1917. Most of its appropriated
dollars must be converted and spent in foreign currencies. Recognizing
the changing value of the dollar in relation to other currencies, a
foreign currency fluctuation fund was created to maintain the spending
power of appropriated funds. ABMC relied on DOD estimates of exchange
rates in developing its budget requests for the fund.
In fiscal year 2004 the balance in this account diminished to less than
$1 million as the dollar continued to decline against the euro, forcing
ABMC to curtail spending. The exchange rate estimates used in preparing
the ABMC budget did not change while the dollar declined in value. The
President's budget for 2005 did not request funding for this account.
Congress provided supplemental appropriation for the account in fiscal
year 2005.
In the fiscal year 2006 budget, funds were requested for the foreign
currency fluctuation account and this request was based on the exchange
rate prevailing when the budget was finalized. This exchange rate
approach has the advantage of being transparent and avoids the judgment
that was incorporated in the DOD estimates that ABMC had used
previously. Recognizing the need to avoid future problems, ABMC and OMB
officials told us that they are continuously evaluating the new method
of budgeting for exchange rate changes as part of the ongoing budget
review process.
Agency Comments:
We provided a copy of a draft of this report to OMB and ABMC for
comment. OMB and ABMC did not provide formal comments. Their staffs did
provide technical comments that were incorporated as appropriate.
We are sending copies of this report to the Secretary of the Treasury,
the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the Chairman of
the American Battle Monuments Commission, and other interested parties.
In addition, this report will be available at no charge on the GAO Web
site at http://www.gao.gov.
Should you or your staff have any questions concerning this report,
please contact me at (202) 512-2717 or jonesy@gao.gov. Contact points
for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be
found on the last page of this report. GAO Staff who made major
contributions to this report were Patrick S. Dynes, James M. McDermott,
and Charles W. Perdue.
Signed by:
Yvonne Jones:
Director:
Financial Markets and Community Investment:
(250240):
FOOTNOTES
[1] Pub. L. No. 108-447; H. Rept. 108-792.
[2] GAO, Review of DOD's Report on Budgeting for Exchange Rates for
Foreign Currency Fluctuations, GAO-05-800R (Washington, D.C.: June 16,
2005).
[3] The Commission's enabling legislation is codified in 36 U.S.C.
Chapter 21.
[4] GAO, Financial Audit: American Battle Monuments Commission's
Financial Statements for Fiscal Years 2004 and 2003, GAO-05-298
(Washington, D.C.: Mar. 1, 2005).
[5] Codified at 31 U.S.C. 2109. OMB officials noted that under the
language authorizing its foreign currency adjustment account, DOD had
substantially greater flexibility in managing the account than ABMC had
with its smaller account.
[6] The U. S. government routinely holds foreign currencies to fund its
overseas operations. Foreign currencies acquired are either purchased
with dollars from commercial sources or received without direct
purchase for dollars. For example, non-purchase foreign currencies are
received in exchange for agricultural commodities, in repayment of
loans, and by other mechanisms. According to the Financial Management
Service of the Department of the Treasury, between October 1, 2004, and
March 31, 2005, the federal government reported $2.3 billion in foreign
currency purchased from commercial sources and a balance of $162.5
million as of March 31, 2005. See Financial Management Service,
Department of the Treasury, Foreign Currencies Held by the U.S.
Government: October 1, 2004 through March 31, 2005.
[7] GAO-05-800R.
[8] GAO-05-800R.
[9] Office of Management and Budget, Circular No. A-11: Preparation,
Submission, and Execution of the Budget (Washington, D.C.: July 2004).
[10] According to OMB, ABMC and OMB also review exchange rate trends to
ensure that the exchange rates used do not represent short term spikes
or drops in the dollar's value.
[11] GAO-05-800R.