NASA Program Costs

In response to concerns that Congress has been asked to authorize the start-up of new National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs estimated to cost hundreds of millions of dollars without having reasonably accurate estimates of their total funding requirements, GAO reviewed NASA's historical experience at estimating space program costs. Almost all of the 29 programs GAO reviewed required substantially more funding than the initial estimates given to Congress. Changes in estimates ranged from a 44-percent decrease to a 426-percent increase over the initial estimates; the median change was a 77-percent increase. General reasons NASA gave for differences between the initial and current estimate included insufficient definition studies, program and funding instability, overoptimism by program officials, and unrealistic contractor estimates. Specific reasons for changes in estimates included program redesigns, technical complexities, budget constraints, incomplete estimates, shuttle launch delays, and inflation. As a result of these factors, the content and schedule of many programs changed substantially between the initial and current cost estimates.

GAO found that: (1) 25 of the 29 programs reviewed required more funding than initially estimated; (2) the median estimate change for all programs was a 77-percent increase in space program costs; (3) general reasons given for differences in initial and current estimates included insufficient definition studies, program and funding instability, overoptimism by program officials, and unrealistic contractor estimates; (4) specific reasons for changes in estimates included program redesigns, technical complexities, budget constraints, incomplete estimates, shuttle launch delays, and inflationary effects; and (5) the content and schedule of many programs changed substantially between the initial and current cost estimates.