Space Shuttle

Incomplete Data and Funding Approach Increase Cost Risk for Upgrade Program Gao ID: NSIAD-94-23 May 26, 1994

The space shuttle, the only U.S. launch system capable of carrying people to and from space, has operated for more than a decade and is likely to be used well into the next century. As the shuttle ages, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) will need to update and replace various components due to obsolescence or to enhance safety. This report (1) determines the assumptions that NASA has made about the length of time the current shuttle fleet will be in operation and (2) NASA's processes and criteria for selecting needed safety and obsolescence upgrades.

GAO found that: (1) NASA has not made explicit assumptions about the current Shuttle fleet's operational status, but NASA budget projections and the new launch system approach suggest that the fleet cannot be replaced for at least another 12 to 15 years; (2) NASA does not plan to decide on a Shuttle replacement, which will take 7 to 10 years to develop, until at least 1998; (3) NASA has concluded that the best option is to develop a fully reusable single-stage-to-orbit launch vehicle fleet and phase out Shuttle use by 2008; (4) the NASA budget cannot simultaneously support development of the Space Station and a new launch system; (5) NASA does not always consider life-cycle cost as a criterion for evaluating potential safety upgrades or alternative approaches when selecting improvements; (6) NASA managers do not have a precise basis for estimating life-cycle costs because of the uncertainty about how long the current fleet will be operational, but NASA could use the 12-to-15-year operational period as a minimum basis for estimating life-cycle costs; and (7) the NASA approach to funding its shuttle upgrade program could increase program risks because of inadequate funding for approved upgrade projects, early design studies of other improvements, and unforseen contingencies.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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