Space Transportation

The $1.3 billion X-33 Program, cosponsored by NASA and Lockheed Martin, is to develop and demonstrate advanced techniques and technologies needed for future reusable launch vehicles, including lightweight internal fuel tanks, advanced rocket engines, a durable heat shield, and rapid turnaround, low-cost operations. NASA and Lockheed-Martin expect the X-33 program to achieve technical requirements, such as demonstrating the feasibility of building large liquid hydrogen fuel tanks made of graphite composite material. However, the program will not meet some original cost, schedule, and performance objectives. Problems encountered by Lockheed Martin have increased costs, delayed the test vehicle's first flight, and revised some performance objectives. Resolving technical problems caused Lockheed Martin's estimated contribution to grow to $286.6 million--$75 million above the original estimate. Part of the increase, however, will be borne by the government. Procurement regulations allow companies to recover allowable independent research and development costs by including them as overhead in the pricing for other government contracts. Thus, Lockheed Martin's and its partners' shares may actually be lower. Also, estimated government costs for NASA civil service personnel working on the program not included in NASA's X-33 program budget also rose. Together, these estimated costs rose from nearly $217 million to more than $274 million, as of March 1999. As a result, GAO believes that a more accurate representation of the government's estimated share of the X-33 program is $1.23 billion, while industry's estimated share is $125.4 million. Several issues will need to be evaluated before NASA decides to use Venture Star reusable launch vehicles for the international space station. First, the results of the X-33 program must provide enough information for NASA to determine that the risks have been sufficiently reduced and that continuation of activities leading to the agency's use of Venture Star reusable launch vehicles is warranted. Second, even though Venture Star reusable launch vehicles are intended to be commercially owned and operated, government financial incentives will likely be needed to initiate such a venture. Third, NASA would have to pay for either two crew modules or modifications to Venture Star vehicles if the crew return vehicles being developed for the space station are chosen as a means for Venture Star to carry people. Fourth, because the Venture Star reusable launch vehicle would not carry as much cargo as the space shuttle, more flights would be needed. The more frequent docking activities could reduce the amount of stable time available for some science operations.

GAO noted that: (1) NASA and Lockheed Martin X-33 program managers anticipate that the program will achieve technical requirements; (2) however, the program will not meet some original cost, schedule, and performance objectives; (3) problems encountered by Lockheed Martin while working toward the X-33 Program's technical requirements have caused cost increases, delay of the test vehicle's first flight, and revision of some performance objectives; (4) the technical problems occurred during development and fabrication of the X-33 vehicle's internal fuel tanks, rocket engines, and thermal protection system, the three key advanced technologies the program seeks to demonstrate; (5) the estimated costs increased from $216.9 million to $274.3 million as of March 1999; (6) the first flight of the X-33 vehicle was delayed 16 months, from March 1999 to July 2000; (7) this could delay NASA's decision about whether to invest in space shuttle fleet upgrades or rely on new launch vehicles such as Venture Star; (8) the technical problems and schedule constraints also resulted in changes to program performance objectives; (9) to implement the terms of the X-33 cooperative agreement, NASA assigned to Lockheed Martin the leadership role in executing the X-33 Program; (10) according to NASA's X-33 program manager, the agency's oversight is different from that used for traditional development contracts, as it relies on insight gained from NASA employees working alongside Lockheed Martin personnel; (11) several issues will need to be evaluated before NASA decides to use Venture Star RLVs to support the International Space Station; (12) the results of the X-33 Program must provide sufficient information for NASA to determine that the risks have been sufficiently reduced and that continuation of activities leading to the agency's use of Venture Star as a customer is warranted; (13) even though Venture Star RLVs are intended to be commercially owned and operated, government financial incentives will likely be needed to initiate such a venture; (14) NASA would have to pay for either two crew modules or modifications to Venture Star vehicles if the crew return vehicle being developed for the International Space Station is chosen as a means for Venture Star to carry people; (15) because the Venture Star RLV would not carry as much cargo as the space shuttle, additional flights would be needed; and (16) NASA's Fiscal Year 2000 Performance Plan does not include performance targets that establish a clear path leading from the X-33 Program flight-test vehicle to an operational single-stage-to-orbit vehicle.

Recommendations

Our recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.

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