Environmental Satellites
Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity Gao ID: GAO-08-518 May 16, 2008The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is a triagency acquisition--managed by the Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)--that has experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and technical difficulties. These factors led to a June 2006 decision to restructure the program by reducing the number of satellites and sensors, increasing estimated costs to $12.5 billion, and delaying the first two satellites by 3 to 5 years. Among other objectives, GAO was asked to evaluate progress in restructuring the acquisition, assess the status of key program components and risks, and assess NASA's, NOAA's, and DOD's plans for obtaining the data originally planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors, but eliminated by the restructuring. To do so, GAO analyzed program and contractor data, attended program reviews, and interviewed agency officials.
The program office has completed most of the major activities associated with restructuring the NPOESS acquisition, but key activities remain to be completed. In the past year, the program redefined the program's deliverables, costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the NPOESS contract. However, agency executives have not yet finalized selected acquisition documents (including the tri-agency memorandum of agreement). Without the executive approval of key acquisition documents, the program lacks the underlying commitment needed to effectively manage a tri-agency program. Over the past year, the NPOESS program has continued to make progress in completing development activities, but key milestones have been delayed and multiple risks remain. Specifically, poor workmanship and testing delays caused an 8-month slip in the expected delivery of a technologically complex imaging sensor that is critical to weather and climate observations. This later delivery caused a corresponding 8-month delay in the expected launch date of a demonstration satellite, called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP). This demonstration satellite is intended to provide on-orbit experiences that can be used to reduce risks on NPOESS satellites and to provide interim weather and climate observations should predecessor weather and climate satellites begin to degrade or fail. Moving forward, risks remain in completing the testing of key sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and ensuring sufficient system security. The program office is aware of these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems could affect the program's overall schedule and cost. When the NPOESS restructuring decision removed four climate and space environment sensors from the program and reduced the functionality of four others, the program was directed to restore a limited version of one sensor and to restore the seven others if funded by entities outside the program office. NOAA, NASA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to restore the capabilities of selected sensors by prioritizing the sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions to mitigate near-term data gaps by adding two sensors to the NPP satellite. However, the agencies have not yet developed plans to mitigate the loss of these and other sensors on a long-term basis. Until such a plan is developed, the agencies may lose windows of opportunity for selecting cost effective options or they may resort to an ad hoc approach to restoring these sensors. Almost 2 years have passed since key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program; further delays in establishing a plan could result in gaps in the continuity of climate and space environment data.
RecommendationsOur recommendations from this work are listed below with a Contact for more information. Status will change from "In process" to "Open," "Closed - implemented," or "Closed - not implemented" based on our follow up work.
Director: Team: Phone:GAO-08-518, Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity
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Climate Data Continuity' which was released on June 19, 2008.
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Report to the Subcommittees on Energy and Environment and
Investigations and Oversight, Committee on Science and Technology,
House of Representatives:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
May 2008:
Environmental Satellites:
Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on
Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity:
GAO-08-518:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-08-518, a report to the Subcommittees on Energy and
Environment and Investigations and Oversight, Committee on Science and
Technology, House of Representatives.
Why GAO Did This Study:
The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System
(NPOESS) is a tri-agency acquisition”managed by the Department of
Commerce‘s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the
Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA)”that has experienced escalating costs, schedule
delays, and technical difficulties. These factors led to a June 2006
decision to restructure the program by reducing the number of
satellites and sensors, increasing estimated costs to $12.5 billion,
and delaying the first two satellites by 3 to 5 years.
Among other objectives, GAO was asked to evaluate progress in
restructuring the acquisition, assess the status of key program
components and risks, and assess NASA‘s, NOAA‘s, and DOD‘s plans for
obtaining the data originally planned to be collected by NPOESS
sensors, but eliminated by the restructuring. To do so, GAO analyzed
program and contractor data, attended program reviews, and interviewed
agency officials.
What GAO Found:
The program office has completed most of the major activities
associated with restructuring the NPOESS acquisition, but key
activities remain to be completed. In the past year, the program
redefined the program‘s deliverables, costs, and schedules, and
renegotiated the NPOESS contract. However, agency executives have not
yet finalized selected acquisition documents (including the tri-agency
memorandum of agreement). Without the executive approval of key
acquisition documents, the program lacks the underlying commitment
needed to effectively manage a tri-agency program.
Over the past year, the NPOESS program has continued to make progress
in completing development activities, but key milestones have been
delayed and multiple risks remain. Specifically, poor workmanship and
testing delays caused an 8-month slip in the expected delivery of a
technologically complex imaging sensor that is critical to weather and
climate observations. This later delivery caused a corresponding 8-
month delay in the expected launch date of a demonstration satellite,
called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP). This demonstration
satellite is intended to provide on-orbit experiences that can be used
to reduce risks on NPOESS satellites and to provide interim weather and
climate observations should predecessor weather and climate satellites
begin to degrade or fail. Moving forward, risks remain in completing
the testing of key sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and
ensuring sufficient system security. The program office is aware of
these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems
could affect the program‘s overall schedule and cost.
When the NPOESS restructuring decision removed four climate and space
environment sensors from the program and reduced the functionality of
four others, the program was directed to restore a limited version of
one sensor and to restore the seven others if funded by entities
outside the program office. NOAA, NASA, and DOD have taken preliminary
steps to restore the capabilities of selected sensors by prioritizing
the sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions
to mitigate near-term data gaps by adding two sensors to the NPP
satellite. However, the agencies have not yet developed plans to
mitigate the loss of these and other sensors on a long-term basis.
Until such a plan is developed, the agencies may lose windows of
opportunity for selecting cost effective options or they may resort to
an ad hoc approach to restoring these sensors. Almost 2 years have
passed since key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program; further
delays in establishing a plan could result in gaps in the continuity of
climate and space environment data.
What GAO Recommends:
GAO recommends that Commerce, NASA, and DOD coordinate to develop plans
on whether and how to restore climate and space weather sensors removed
from the NPOESS program. GAO is also reemphasizing a prior
recommendation for agency executives to finalize acquisition documents.
Agency officials agreed with both recommendations.
To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-08-518]. For more
information, contact David Powner at (202) 512-9286 or pownerd@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Contents:
Letter:
Results in Brief:
Background:
Major Restructuring Activities Have Been Completed, but Key Activities
Remain:
NPOESS Program Has Made Progress, but Key Milestones Have Been Delayed
and Risks Remain:
Program Office Identified Preferred Timelines for Decisions on
Restoring Sensors to NPOESS:
Agencies Have Undertaken Preliminary Steps to Restore Key Sensors, but
Lack Timely Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity:
Conclusions:
Recommendations for Executive Action:
Agency Comments:
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology:
Appendix II: Status of Key Acquisition Documents:
Appendix III: Comments from the Department of Commerce:
Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Defense:
Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration:
Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
Tables:
Table 1: Expected NPOESS Instruments, as of August 31, 2004 (critical
sensors are in bold):
Table 2: Summary of Changes to the NPOESS Program, as of June 2006:
Table 3: Key Program Milestones:
Table 4: Changes to NPOESS Instruments, as of June 2006 (critical
sensors in bold):
Table 5: Planned Configuration of Instruments on NPP and NPOESS
Satellites, as of January 2008 (critical sensors are in bold):
Table 6: Status of Ground Segment Components:
Table 7: Status of Selected Components of the Space Segment, as of
January 2008:
Table 8: Sensors That Could be Restored to NPOESS Satellites:
Table 9: Program's Timelines for Restoring Canceled Sensors:
Table 10: Summary of Studies on Impacts of the Loss of Sensors and
Priorities for Restoring Them:
Table 11: Status of NPOESS Acquisition Documents:
Figures:
Figure 1: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites:
Figure 2: Satellite Data Processing Steps:
Figure 3: POES Image of Hurricane Katrina in 2005:
Figure 4: Analysis of Ozone Concentration from POES Satellite Data:
Figure 5: Satellite Measurements of Ozone over Antarctica, from 1980 to
2005:
Figure 6: Agency Responsibilities within the NPOESS Integrated Program
Office:
Figure 7: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variances for the NPOESS Ground
Segment over a 12-month Period:
Figure 8: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space
Segment over a 12-Month Period:
Figure 9: Selected Options for Restoring Selected Climate Sensors, as
of January 2008:
Abbreviations:
CrIS: Cross-track infrared sounder:
DMSP: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program:
DOD: Department of Defense:
EDR: environmental data record:
IDPS: interface data processing system:
NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration:
NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information
Service:
NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
NPOESS: National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
System:
NPP: NPOESS Preparatory Project:
POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites:
VIIRS: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite:
[End of section]
United States Government Accountability Office:
Washington, DC 20548:
May 16, 2008:
The Honorable Nick Lampson:
Chairman:
The Honorable Bob Inglis:
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on Energy and Environment:
Committee on Science and Technology:
House of Representatives:
The Honorable Brad Miller:
Chairman:
The Honorable F. James Sensenbrenner Jr.
Ranking Member:
Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight:
Committee on Science and Technology:
House of Representatives:
The planned National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
System (NPOESS) program is expected to be a state-of-the-art,
environment-monitoring satellite system that will replace two existing
polar-orbiting environmental satellite systems. Polar-orbiting
satellites provide data and imagery that are used by weather
forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and monitor
changes in weather, climate, the oceans, and the environment. The
NPOESS program is considered critical to the United States' ability to
maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting
(including severe weather events such as hurricanes) and global climate
monitoring through the year 2026.
Three agencies share responsibility for the NPOESS acquisition: the
Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD)/United States
Air Force, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA). These agencies established a tri-agency integrated program
office to manage the NPOESS program. In recent years, this program
experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and technical
difficulties, leading to a June 2006 decision to restructure the
program. This decision decreased the complexity of the program by
reducing the number of satellites and sensors, increased the estimated
cost of the program to $12.5 billion, and delayed the launches of the
first two satellites by 3 to 5 years. The launch of a demonstration
satellite, called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP), was also
delayed by about 3 years. NPP is expected to reduce NPOESS risks by
providing an early opportunity to work with the sensors, ground
systems, and data processing systems. It is also envisioned to provide
continuity of weather and climate data should predecessor satellites
degrade or fail. In addition, when the restructuring decision removed
four climate and space environment sensors from the program and reduced
the functionality of four others, the program was directed to restore a
limited version of one sensor and to restore the seven others if
sponsored and funded outside the program.
This report responds to your request that we (1) evaluate the NPOESS
program office's progress in restructuring the acquisition, (2) assess
the status of key program components and risks, (3) identify how much
notice the program office would need if agency sponsors outside the
program choose to restore the eliminated or degraded sensors to the
NPOESS program, and (4) assess NASA's, NOAA's, and DOD's plans for
obtaining the environmental data originally planned to be collected by
NPOESS sensors, but then eliminated by the restructuring.
To address our objectives, we reviewed program documentation including
the decision memo that restructured the program, status briefings,
milestone progress reports, and reports on program and agency plans for
restoring sensors to the NPOESS program. We analyzed earned value
management data obtained from the contractor to determine performance
against cost and schedule estimates. We also interviewed relevant
agency officials from NOAA, NASA, and DOD. In addition, this work
builds on reviews we have done on environmental satellites over the
last several years.[Footnote 1]
We conducted our work at the NPOESS Integrated Program Office
headquarters and at NOAA, NASA, and DOD facilities in the Washington,
D.C., metropolitan area. In addition, we conducted work at a
contractor's facility in Boulder, Colorado, and at the Air Force
Weather Agency in Omaha, Nebraska, because of the importance of these
sites to the planned integration and operations of the NPP satellite.
We conducted this performance audit from June 2007 to April 2008 in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
Additional details on our objectives, scope, and methodology are
provided in appendix I.
Results in Brief:
The NPOESS program office has completed most of the major activities
associated with restructuring the acquisition, but key activities
remain to be completed. In the past year, the program redefined the
program's deliverables, costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the
NPOESS contract. However, agency executives have not yet finalized
selected acquisition documents, including the tri-agency memorandum of
agreement and the acquisition program baseline. Without executive
approval of the memorandum of agreement and other key acquisition
documents, the program lacks the underlying commitment needed to
effectively manage a tri-agency program.
In the past year, the NPOESS program has made progress in completing
development and testing activities associated with the spacecraft,
sensors, and ground systems. However, key milestones have been delayed
and multiple risks remain. Specifically, poor workmanship and testing
delays caused an 8-month slip in the delivery of a complex imaging
sensor called the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS).
This late delivery caused a corresponding 8-month delay in the expected
launch date of the NPP demonstration satellite, moving it from late
September 2009 to early June 2010. Any delay in this launch date
shortens the time available for identifying lessons learned from NPP
while it is in orbit and incorporating these lessons in the development
of the first NPOESS satellite. NPP delays could also lead to gaps in
weather and climate data continuity if existing satellites begin to
degrade or fail. Moving forward, risks remain in completing the testing
of key sensors and integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, resolving
interagency disagreements about the appropriate level of system
security, and revising outdated operations and support cost estimates.
The program office is aware of these risks and is working to mitigate
them, but continued problems could affect the program's overall
schedule and cost.
When the NPOESS restructuring decision removed and degraded climate and
space weather sensors from the program in order to reduce the risk and
complexity of the system, it allowed for the sensors to be restored if
funded by entities outside the program office. The NPOESS program
office has requested that any entities that are willing to fund efforts
to restore a sensor provide them 6 years' advance notice before the
launch of the target satellite. This includes 4 years for the sensor to
be developed and tested, and 2 years for integration and testing on the
spacecraft. These milestones are based on historical data about how
long it takes to build and integrate sensors. However, agency officials
believe that these time frames could be shorter if the sensor has
already been developed and the technology is well understood.
NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to restore the
capabilities of selected climate and space weather sensors that were
removed from the NPOESS program by prioritizing the sensors, assessing
options for restoring them, and making decisions to mitigate near-term
data continuity needs by restoring two sensors to the NPP satellite.
However, the agencies have not yet developed plans on whether and how
to replace sensors on a long-term basis. Until such a plan is
developed, the agencies may lose their windows of opportunity for
selecting cost-effective options or they may resort to an ad hoc
approach to restoring these sensors. Almost 2 years have passed since
key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program; further delays in
establishing a plan could result in gaps in the continuity of climate
and space data.
We are making recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and
Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to coordinate with partner
agencies to develop plans on whether and how to restore the climate and
space weather sensors removed from the NPOESS program. In addition, we
are reemphasizing our prior recommendation that the appropriate
executives immediately finalize key acquisition documents. The
Department of Commerce, DOD, and NASA provided written comments on a
draft of our report (see apps. III, IV, and V). All three agencies
agreed with our recommendations.
Background:
Since the 1960s, the United States has operated two separate
operational polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems: the Polar-
orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) series, which is
managed by NOAA, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
(DMSP), which is managed by the Air Force. These satellites obtain
environmental data that are processed to provide graphical weather
images and specialized weather products. These satellite data are also
the predominant input to numerical weather prediction models, which are
a primary tool for forecasting weather 3 or more days in all advance--
including forecasting the path and intensity of hurricanes. The weather
products and models are used to predict the potential impact of severe
weather so that communities and emergency managers can help prevent and
mitigate their effects. Polar satellites also provide data used to
monitor environmental phenomena, such as ozone depletion and drought
conditions, as well as data sets that are used by researchers for a
variety of studies such as climate monitoring.
Unlike geostationary satellites, which maintain a fixed position
relative to the earth, polar-orbiting satellites constantly circle the
earth in an almost north-south orbit, providing global coverage of
conditions that affect the weather and climate. Each satellite makes
about 14 orbits a day. As the earth rotates beneath it, each satellite
views the entire earth's surface twice a day. Currently, there are two
operational POES satellites and two operational DMSP satellites that
are positioned so that they can observe the earth in early morning,
midmorning, and early afternoon polar orbits. Together, they ensure
that, for any region of the earth, the data provided to users are
generally no more than 6 hours old. Figure 1 illustrates the current
operational polar satellite configuration. Besides the four operational
satellites, six older satellites are in orbit that still collect some
data and are available to provide limited backup to the operational
satellites should they degrade or fail. In the future, the Air Force
plans to continue to launch an additional DMSP satellite every few
years; the last is currently expected to launch in 2012.[Footnote 2]
NOAA plans to launch the final remaining POES satellite in 2009.
Figure 1: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites:
[See PDF for image]
This figure is an illustration of the orbits of operational polar
satellites. Noted on the illustration are the following equatorial
crossing times:
DMPS: 0730 hours;
POES: 0830 hours;
DMPS: 0530 hours;
POES: 1330 hours.
Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.
[End of figure]
Polar Satellite Data and Products:
Polar satellites gather a broad range of data that are transformed into
a variety of products. Satellite sensors observe different bands of
radiation wavelengths, called channels, which are used for remotely
determining information about the earth's atmosphere, land surface,
oceans, and the space environment. When first received, satellite data
are considered raw data. To make them usable, the processing centers
format the data so that they are time-sequenced and include earth
location and calibration information. After formatting, these data are
called raw data records. The centers further process these raw data
records into channel-specific data sets, called sensor data records and
temperature data records. These data records are then used to derive
weather and climate products called environmental data records (EDR).
EDRs include a wide range of atmospheric products detailing cloud
coverage, temperature, humidity, and ozone distribution; land surface
products showing snow cover, vegetation, and land use; ocean products
depicting sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and wave height; and
characterizations of the space environment. Combinations of these data
records (raw, sensor, temperature, and environmental data records) are
also used to derive more sophisticated products, including outputs from
numerical weather models and assessments of climate trends. Figure 2 is
a simplified depiction of the various stages of satellite data
processing, and figures 3 and 4 depict examples of EDR weather
products. Specifically, figure 3 depicts a product used in weather
forecasting, and figure 4 depicts a product used in climate monitoring.
Figure 5 depicts a derived product that demonstrates how climate
measurements can be aggregated over time to identify long-term trends.
In commenting on a draft of this report, NOAA officials noted that
while EDRs can be a valuable source of climate data, the scientific
community also needs climate data records. These records require their
own algorithms, data handling systems, and calibration/validation in
order to ensure consistency in processing and reprocessing over years
and decades.
Figure 2: Satellite Data Processing Steps:
[See PDF for image]
This figure is an illustration of satellite data processing steps, as
follows:
Satellite Data Processing Steps:
1) Raw data;
2) Raw data records;
3) Sensor data records and temperature data records;
4) Environmental data records;
5) Derived products and output from numerical weather prediction
models.
Source: GAO analysis of NOAA information.
[End of figure]
Figure 3: POES Image of Hurricane Katrina in 2005:
[See PDF for image]
Satellite image of Hurricane Katrina.
Source: NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information
Service.
[End of figure]
Figure 4: Analysis of Ozone Concentration from POES Satellite Data:
[See PDF for image]
Printout of SBUV/2 Total Zone, Southern Hemisphere.
Source: NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information
Service.
[End of figure]
Figure 5: Satellite Measurements of Ozone over Antarctica, from 1980 to
2005:
[See PDF for image]
This figure is a graph indicating satellite observations from 1980 to
the present. These observations are in minimum total ozone (Dobson
units). Also depicted is the range of atmospheric model predictions.
Source: Fahey, D.W. (Lead Author), Twenty Questions and Answers About
the Ozone Layer: 2006 Update, World Meteorological Organization,
Geneva, 2007. [Reprinted from Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion:
2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report No.50,
World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 2007.].
[End of figure]
NPOESS Overview:
With the expectation that combining the POES and DMSP programs would
reduce duplication and result in sizable cost savings, a May 1994
Presidential Decision Directive required NOAA and DOD to converge the
two satellite programs into a single satellite program capable of
satisfying both civilian and military requirements.[Footnote 3] The
converged program, NPOESS, is considered critical to the United States'
ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather
forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2026. To
manage this program, DOD, NOAA, and NASA formed the tri-agency
Integrated Program Office, located within NOAA.
Within the program office, each agency has the lead on certain
activities: NOAA has overall program management responsibility for the
converged system and for satellite operations; DOD's Air Force has the
lead on the acquisition; and NASA has primary responsibility for
facilitating the development and incorporation of new technologies into
the converged system. NOAA and DOD share the costs of funding NPOESS,
while NASA funds specific technology projects and studies. Figure 6
depicts the organizations that make up the NPOESS program office and
lists their responsibilities.
The NPOESS program office is overseen by an executive committee that is
made up of the administrators of NOAA and NASA and the Undersecretary
of the Air Force.
Figure 6: Agency Responsibilities within the NPOESS Integrated Program
Office:
[See PDF for image]
This figure is an illustration of Agency Responsibilities within the
NPOESS Integrated Program Office, as follows:
NPOESS Integrated Program Office:
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration;
Responsibility: Overall program management and satellite operations;
Funding: Shared funding for NPOESS.
Agency: United States Air Force;
Responsibility: Acquisition;
Funding: Shared funding for NPOESS.
Agency: National Aeronautics and Space Administration;
Responsibility: Technologies;
Funding: Specific technology projects and studies.
Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.
[End of figure]
NPOESS is a major system acquisition that was originally estimated to
cost about $6.5 billion over the 24-year life of the program from its
inception in 1995 through 2018. The program is to provide satellite
development, satellite launch and operation, and ground-based satellite
data processing. These deliverables are grouped into four main
categories: (1) the space segment, which includes the satellites and
sensors; (2) the integrated data processing segment, which is the
system for transforming raw data into EDRs and is to be located at the
four processing centers; (3) the command, control, and communications
segment, which includes the equipment and services needed to support
satellite operations; and (4) the launch segment, which includes the
launch vehicle services.
When the NPOESS engineering, manufacturing, and development contract
was awarded in August 2002, the cost estimate was adjusted to $7
billion. Acquisition plans called for the procurement and launch of six
satellites over the life of the program, as well as the integration of
13 instruments--consisting of 10 environmental sensors and 3
subsystems. Together, the sensors were to receive and transmit data on
atmospheric, cloud cover, environmental, climatic, oceanographic, and
solar-geophysical observations. The subsystems were to support
nonenvironmental search and rescue efforts, sensor survivability, and
environmental data collection activities. The program office considered
4 of the sensors to be critical because they provide data for key
weather products; these sensors are in bold in table 1, which describes
each of the expected NPOESS instruments.
Table 1: Expected NPOESS Instruments, as of August 31, 2004 (critical
sensors are in bold):
Instrument: Advanced technology microwave sounder (critical sensor);
Description: Measures microwave energy released and scattered by the
atmosphere and is to be used with infrared sounding data from the cross-
track infrared sounder to produce daily global atmospheric temperature,
humidity, and pressure profiles.
Instrument: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
Description: Retrieves specific measurements of clouds and aerosols
(liquid droplets or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere, such
as sea spray, smog, and smoke).
Instrument: Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder (critical sensor);
Description: Collects microwave images and data needed to measure rain
rate, ocean surface wind speed and direction, amount of water in the
clouds, and soil moisture, as well as temperature and humidity at
different atmospheric levels.
Instrument: Cross-track infrared sounder (critical sensor);
Description: Collects measurements of the earth's radiation to
determine the vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and
pressure in the atmosphere.
Instrument: Data collection system;
Description: Collects environmental data from platforms around the
world and delivers them to users worldwide.
Instrument: Earth radiation budget sensor;
Description: Measures solar short-wave radiation and long-wave
radiation released by the earth back into space on a worldwide scale to
enhance long-term climate studies.
Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite;
Description: Collects data needed to measure the amount and
distribution of ozone in the earth's atmosphere. Consists of two
components (limb and nadir), which can be provided separately.
Instrument: Radar altimeter;
Description: Measures variances in sea surface height/topography and
ocean surface roughness, which are used to determine sea surface
height, significant wave height, and ocean surface wind speed and to
provide critical inputs to ocean forecasting and climate prediction
models.
Instrument: Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system;
Description: Detects and locates aviators, mariners, and land-based
users in distress.
Instrument: Space environmental sensor suite;
Description: Collects data to identify, reduce, and predict the effects
of space weather on technological systems, including satellites and
radio links.
Instrument: Survivability sensor;
Description: Monitors for attacks on the satellite and notifies other
instruments in case of an attack.
Instrument: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Description: Monitors and captures total and spectral solar irradiance
data.
Instrument: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS)(critical
sensor);
Description: Collects images and radiometric data used to provide
information on the earth's clouds, atmosphere, ocean, and land
surfaces.
Source: GAO, based on NPOESS program office data.
[End of table]
In addition, a demonstration satellite, called the NPOESS Preparatory
Project (NPP), was planned to be launched several years before the
first NPOESS satellite in order to reduce the risk associated with
launching new sensor technologies and to ensure continuity of climate
data with NASA's Earth Observing System satellites. NPP was to host
three of the four critical NPOESS sensors, as well as one other no
critical sensor and to provide the program office and the processing
centers an early opportunity to work with the sensors, ground control,
and data processing systems.[Footnote 4]
When the NPOESS development contract was awarded, the schedule for
launching the satellites was driven by a requirement that the
satellites be available to back up the final POES and DMSP satellites
should anything go wrong during the planned launches of these
satellites. Early program milestones included (1) launching NPP by May
2006, (2) having the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the
final POES satellite launch in March 2008, and (3) having the second
NPOESS satellite available to back up the final DMSP satellite launch
in October 2009. If the NPOESS satellites were not needed to back up
the final predecessor satellites, their anticipated launch dates would
have been April 2009 and June 2011, respectively.
Continuing Cost Increases, Schedule Delays, and Technical Problems Led
to a Decision to Restructure the NPOESS Program:
Over several years, we reported that NPOESS had experienced continued
cost increases, schedule delays, and serious technical
problems.[Footnote 5] By November 2005, we estimated that the cost of
the program had grown from $7 billion to over $10 billion. In addition,
the program was experiencing major technical problems with the VIIRS
sensor and expected to delay the launch date of the first satellite by
almost 2 years. These issues ultimately required difficult decisions to
be made about the program's direction and capabilities.
The Nunn-McCurdy law requires DOD to take specific actions when a major
defense acquisition program growth exceeds certain cost thresholds.
[Footnote 6] Key provisions of the law require the Secretary of Defense
to notify Congress when a major defense acquisition is expected to
overrun its baseline by 15 percent or more and to certify the program
to Congress when it is expected to overrun its baseline by 25 percent
or more.[Footnote 7] In November 2005, NPOESS exceeded the 25 percent
threshold, and DOD was required to certify the program. Certifying a
program entails providing a determination that (1) the program is
essential to national security, (2) there are no alternatives to the
program that will provide equal or greater military capability at less
cost, (3) the new estimates of the program's cost are reasonable, and
(4) the management structure for the program is adequate to manage and
control costs. DOD established tri-agency teams--made up of DOD, NOAA,
and NASA experts--to work on each of the four elements of the
certification process.
In June 2006, DOD (with the agreement of both of its partner agencies)
certified a restructured NPOESS program, estimated to cost $12.5
billion through 2026.[Footnote 8] This decision approved a cost
increase of $4 billion over the prior approved baseline cost and
delayed the launch of NPP and the first 2 satellites by roughly 3 to 5
years. The new program also entailed reducing the number of satellites
to be produced and launched from 6 to 4, and reducing the number of
instruments on the satellites from 13 to 9--consisting of 7
environmental sensors and 2 subsystems. It also entailed using NPOESS
satellites in the early morning and afternoon orbits and relying on
European satellites for midmorning orbit data.[Footnote 9] Table 2
summarizes the major program changes made under the Nunn-McCurdy
certification decision.
Table 2: Summary of Changes to the NPOESS Program, as of June 2006:
Key area: Life cycle range;
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 1995-2020;
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 1995-2026.
Key area: Estimated life cycle cost;
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: $8.4 billion;
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: $12.5 billion.
Key area: Launch schedule;
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision:
* NPP by October 2006;
* First NPOESS by November 2009;
* Second NPOESS by June 2011;
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision:
* NPP by January 2010[A];
* First NPOESS by January 2013;
* Second NPOESS by January 2016.
Key area: Management structure;
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision:
* System Program Director reports to a tri-agency steering committee
and the tri-agency Executive Committee;
* Independent program reviews noted insufficient system engineering and
cost analysis staff;
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision:
* System Program Director is responsible for day-to-day program
management and reports to the Program Executive Officer;
* Program Executive Officer oversees program and reports to the tri-
agency Executive Committee.
Key area: Number of satellites;
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 6 (in addition to NPP);
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 4 (in addition to NPP).
Key area: Number of orbits;
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 3 (early morning, midmorning,
and afternoon);
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 2 (early morning and
afternoon; will rely on European satellites for midmorning orbit data).
Key area: Number and complement of instruments;
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 13 instruments (10 sensors
and 3 subsystems);
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 9 instruments (7 sensors and 2
subsystems); 4 of the sensors are to provide fewer capabilities.
Key area: Number of EDRs;
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 55;
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 39 (6 are to be degraded
products).
Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data.
[A] Although the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision specifies NPP is
to launch by January 2010, NASA planned to launch it by September 2009
to reduce the possibility of a climate data continuity gap.
[End of table]
The Nunn-McCurdy certification decision established new milestones for
the delivery of key program elements, including launching NPP by
January 2010,[Footnote 10] launching the first NPOESS satellite (called
C1) by January 2013, and launching the second NPOESS satellite (called
C2) by January 2016. These revised milestones deviated from prior plans
to have the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES
satellite should anything go wrong during that launch. Table 3
summarizes changes in key program milestones over time.
Table 3: Key Program Milestones:
Milestones: Final POES launch[A];
As of the August 2002 contract award: March 2008;
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: March 2008;
As of the June 2006 certification decision: February 2009;
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: Not applicable.
Milestones: NPP launch;
As of the August 2002 contract award: May 2006;
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: October 2006;
As of the June 2006 certification decision: January 2010[B];
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: 44-month delay.
Milestones: First NPOESS satellite planned for launch;
As of the August 2002 contract award: April 2009;
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: November 2009;
As of the June 2006 certification decision: January 2013;
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: 38-month delay.
Milestones: Final DMSP launch[A];
As of the August 2002 contract award: October 2009;
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: May 2010;
As of the June 2006 certification decision: April 2012;
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: Not applicable.
Milestones: Second NPOESS satellite planned for launch;
As of the August 2002 contract award: June 2011;
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: June 2011;
As of the June 2006 certification decision: January 2016;
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: 55-month delay.
Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data.
[A] POES and DMSP are not part of the NPOESS program. Their launch
dates are provided to indicate the increased risk of satellite data
gaps between when these systems launch and when the NPOESS satellites
launch.
[B] Although the certification decision specified NPP is to launch by
January 2010, NASA planned to launch it by September 2009 to reduce the
possibility of a gap in climate data continuity.
[End of table]
Delaying the launch of the first NPOESS satellite meant that if the
final POES satellite fails on launch, satellite data users would need
to rely on the existing constellation of environmental satellites until
NPP data becomes available--almost 2 years later. Although NPP was not
intended to be an operational asset, NASA agreed to move NPP to a
different orbit so that its data would be available in the event of a
premature failure of the final POES satellite. If the health of the
existing constellation of satellites diminishes--or if NPP data is not
available, timely, and reliable--there could be a gap in environmental
satellite data.
In order to reduce program complexity, the Nunn-McCurdy certification
decision decreased the number of NPOESS sensors from 13 to 9 and
reduced the functionality of 4 sensors. Specifically, of the 13
original sensors, 5 sensors remain unchanged (but 2 are on a reduced
number of satellites), 3 were replaced with older or less capable
sensors, 1 was modified to provide less functionality, and 4 were
canceled. Table 4 delineates the changes made.
Table 4: Changes to NPOESS Instruments, as of June 2006 (critical
sensors in bold):
Instrument: Advanced technology microwave sounder (critical sensor);
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged; to
be included on NPP and on afternoon satellites.
Instrument: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was
canceled[A].
Instrument: Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder (critical sensor);
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was canceled;
program office to procure a less complex microwave imager/sounder for
inclusion beginning on the second NPOESS satellite.
Instrument: Cross-track infrared sounder (critical sensor);
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged; to
be included on NPP and on afternoon satellites.
Instrument: Data collection system;
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: No change; subsystem
is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites.
Instrument: Earth radiation budget sensor;
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was canceled;
is to be replaced by a legacy sensor[A].
Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite;
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: One part of the
sensor (limb) was canceled; remaining part is to be included on NPP and
on all four NPOESS satellites[A].
Instrument: Radar altimeter;
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was
canceled[A].
Instrument: Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system;
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged;
subsystem is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites.
Instrument: Space environmental sensor suite;
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was canceled;
is to be replaced by a less capable, less expensive legacy sensor[A].
Instrument: Survivability sensor;
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Subsystem was
canceled[A].
Instrument: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was
canceled[A].
Instrument: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (critical sensor);
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged;
sensor is to be included on NPP and on all four NPOESS satellites.
Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data.
[A] While direct program funding for these sensors was eliminated,
these sensors could be reintegrated should other parties choose to fund
them. The Nunn-McCurdy certification decision notes that the satellite
bus is to include space for these sensors and funds to integrate them.
[End of table]
Table 5 shows the changes to NPOESS instruments, including the 4
critical sensors identified in bold, and the planned configuration for
NPP and the four satellites of the NPOESS program, called C1, C2, C3,
and C4. Program officials acknowledged that this configuration could
change if other parties decided to develop the sensors that were
canceled. However, they stated that the planned configuration of the
first satellite (C1) cannot change without increasing the risk that the
launch would be delayed.
Table 5: Planned Configuration of Instruments on NPP and NPOESS
Satellites, as of January 2008 (critical sensors are in bold):
Instrument: Advanced technology microwave sounder (critical sensor);
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite.
Instrument: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite.
Instrument: Microwave imager/sounder (replacing the Conical-scanned
microwave imager/sounder) (critical sensor);
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite.
Instrument: Cross-track infrared sounder (critical sensor);
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite.
Instrument: Data collection system;
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite.
Instrument: Earth radiation budget sensor (replaced on NPP and C1 by
the Clouds and the earth's radiant energy system sensor);
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite[A];
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite.
Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir);
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite.
Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite[B];
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite.
Instrument: Space environmental sensor suite;
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite.
Instrument: Space environment monitor[C] (replacing selected
capabilities of the space environmental sensor suite);
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite.
Instrument: Total solar irradiance sensor;
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite.
Instrument: Radar altimeter;
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite.
Instrument: Survivability sensor;
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
satellite.
Instrument: Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system;
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite.
Instrument: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (critical sensor);
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite.
Source: GAO analysis of program office data.
[A] The NPOESS Executive Committee recently decided to add the Clouds
and the earth's radiant energy system to the NPP satellite to reduce
the risk of a data gap of earth radiation budget data.
[B] The limb component of the Ozone mapper/profiler suite was added
back to NPP using NASA/NOAA funds from outside the NPOESS baseline
program.
[C] The space environment monitor is a limited version of the full
space environmental sensor suite.
[End of table]
The changes in NPOESS sensors affected the number and quality of the
resulting weather and environmental products, called EDRs. In selecting
sensors for the restructured program during the Nunn-McCurdy process,
decision makers placed the highest priority on continuing current
operational weather capabilities and a lower priority on obtaining
selected environmental and climate measuring capabilities. As a result,
the revised NPOESS system has significantly less capability for
providing global climate measures than was originally planned.
Specifically, the number of EDRs was decreased from 55 to 39, of which
6 are of a reduced quality. The 39 EDRs that remain include cloud base
height, land surface temperature, precipitation type and rate, and sea
surface winds. The 16 EDRs that were removed include cloud particle
size and distribution, sea surface height, net solar radiation at the
top of the atmosphere, and products to depict the electric fields in
the space environment. The 6 EDRs that are of a reduced quality include
ozone profile, soil moisture, and multiple products depicting energy in
the space environment.
Prior Report Recommended Steps to Mitigate Program Risks:
In April 2007, we reported that while the program office had made
progress in restructuring NPOESS since the June 2006 Nunn-McCurdy
certification decision, important tasks leading up to finalizing
contract changes remained to be completed.[Footnote 11] Specifically,
the program had established and implemented interim program plans
guiding the contractor's work activities in 2006 and 2007 and had made
progress on drafting key acquisition documents, including the system
engineering plan, the test and evaluation master plan, and the
memorandum of agreement between the agencies. However, executive
approval of those documents was about 6 months late at that time--due
in part to the complexity of navigating three agencies' approval
processes.
We also reported that the program office had made progress in
establishing an effective management structure, but that plans to
reassign the Program Executive Officer would unnecessarily increase
risks to an already risky program. Additionally, we found that the
program lacked a process and plan for identifying and filling staffing
shortages, which led to delays in key activities such as cost
estimating and contract revisions. We reported that until this process
is in place, the NPOESS program faced increased risk of further delays.
To address these issues, we recommended that the appropriate agency
executives finalize key acquisition documents by the end of April 2007
in order to allow the restructuring of the program to proceed. We also
recommended that NPOESS program officials develop and implement a
written process for identifying and addressing human capital needs and
that they establish a plan to immediately fill needed positions. In
addition, to reduce program risks, we recommended that DOD delay the
reassignment of the Program Executive Officer until all sensors were
delivered to NPP.
The agencies' response to these recommendations has been mixed. While
the program office is still working to complete selected acquisition
documents, program officials documented the program's staffing process
and have made progress in filling selected budgeting and system
engineering vacancies. DOD, however, reassigned the Program Executive
Officer in July 2007. A new Program Executive Officer is now in place.
Earned Value Management Techniques Provide Insight on Program Cost and
Schedule:
To effectively oversee an acquisition, project managers need current
information on a contractor's progress in meeting contract
deliverables. One method that can help project managers track this
progress is earned value management. This method, used by DOD for
several decades, compares the value of work accomplished during a given
period with that of the work expected in that period.
Differences from expectations are measured in both cost and schedule
variances. Cost variances compare the earned value of the completed
work with the actual cost of the work performed. For example, if a
contractor completed $5 million worth of work and the work actually
cost $6.7 million, there would be a -$1.7 million cost variance.
Schedule variances are also measured in dollars, but they compare the
earned value of the work completed with the value of work that was
expected to be completed. For example, if a contractor completed $5
million worth of work at the end of the month but was budgeted to
complete $10 million worth of work, there would be a -$5 million
schedule variance. Positive variances indicate that activities are
costing less or are completed ahead of schedule. Negative variances
indicate activities are costing more or are falling behind schedule.
These cost and schedule variances can then be used in estimating the
cost and time needed to complete the program.
Major Restructuring Activities Have Been Completed, but Key Activities
Remain:
The program office has completed major activities associated with
restructuring NPOESS, but key supporting activities remain--including
obtaining approval of key acquisition documents. Restructuring a major
acquisition program like NPOESS is a process that involves reassessing
and redefining the program's deliverables, costs, and schedules, and
renegotiating the contract. The restructuring process also involves
revising important acquisition documents such as the tri-agency
memorandum of agreement, the acquisition strategy, the system
engineering plan, the integrated master schedule defining what needs to
happen by when, and the acquisition program baseline.
During the past year, the program redefined the program's deliverables,
costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the NPOESS contract. To do so,
the program developed a new program plan and conducted an integrated
baseline review of the entire program, which validated that the new
deliverables, costs, and schedules were feasible. It also completed key
acquisition documents including the system engineering plan and the
integrated master schedule. The program and the prime contractor
renegotiated their agreement and signed a modified contract in July
2007.
However, key activities remain to be completed, including obtaining
executive approval of key acquisition documents. Specifically, even
though agency officials were expected to approve key acquisition
documents by September 2007, the appropriate executives have not yet
signed off on documents including the tri-agency memorandum of
agreement or the acquisition strategy report. They have also not signed
off on the acquisition program baseline, the fee management plan, the
test and evaluation master plan, and the two-orbit program plan (a plan
for how to use European satellite data with NPOESS). Appendix II
provides more information on the status of these documents.
Program officials stated that the program has been able to renegotiate
the contract and to proceed in developing sensors and systems without
these documents being signed because the documents have widespread
acceptance within the three agencies. They reported that the delays are
largely due to the complexity of obtaining approval from three
agencies. For example, program officials reported that an organization
within DOD suggested minor changes to the tri-agency memorandum of
agreement after months of coordination and after it had already been
signed by both the Secretary of Commerce and the Administrator of NASA.
The program office has now made the recommended changes and is re-
initiating the coordination process. In addition, NASA disagreed with
the fee management plan because it wanted to have an incentive
associated with the on-orbit performance of the NPP satellite. The
program office is currently trying to address NASA's concerns, but
stated that the current plan is in effect for this fiscal year and any
changes would have to wait until fiscal year 2009. These disagreements
further delay an already delayed restructuring process. Without
executive approval of key acquisition documents, the program lacks the
underlying commitment necessary to effectively manage a tri-agency
program. In our prior report, we recommended that the appropriate
executives immediately finalize key acquisition documents. This
recommendation remains open.
NPOESS Program Has Made Progress, but Key Milestones Have Been Delayed
and Risks Remain:
Over the last year, the NPOESS program has made progress by completing
planned development and testing activities on its ground and space
segments, but key milestones for delivering the VIIRS sensor and
launching NPP have been delayed by about 8 months. Moving forward,
risks remain in completing the testing of key sensors and integrating
them on the NPP spacecraft, in resolving interagency disagreements on
the appropriate level of system security, and in revising estimated
costs for satellite operations and support. The program office is aware
of these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems
could affect the program's overall schedule and cost. Given the tight
time frames for completing key sensors, integrating them on the NPP
spacecraft, and getting the ground-based data processing system
developed, tested, and deployed, it is important for the NPOESS
Integrated Program Office, the Program Executive Office, and the
Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of
milestones and risks.
Ground Segment--Progress Has Been Made, but Important Work Remains to
Be Done:
Development of the ground segment--which includes the interface data
processing system, the ground stations that are to receive satellite
data, and the ground-based command, control, and communications system-
-is under way and on track. For example, the Interface Data Processing
System has been installed at one of the two locations that are to
receive NPP data, and the command, control, and communications system
passed acceptance testing for use with NPP. However, important work in
developing the algorithms that translate satellite data into weather
products within the integrated data processing segment remains to be
completed. Table 6 describes each of the components of the ground
segment and identifies the program-provided risk level and status of
each.
Table 6: Status of Ground Segment Components:
Ground segment component/description: Interface Data Processing System
(IDPS); A ground-based system that is to process the sensors' data so
that they are usable by the data processing centers and the broader
community of environmental data users. IDPS will be deployed at the
four weather data processing centers;
Program-identified risk level: Low;
Status: IDPS software is being developed in a series of builds. In
2007, software developers required additional resources and fell behind
schedule on build 1.5 activities due to unanticipated complexities in
developing algorithms that will make use of data collected by the Ozone
mapper/profiler suite in orbit--as well as late delivery of key
information on this instrument. As of January 2008, IDPS build 1.5 had
been developed and was undergoing testing to check the quality of its
performance; additional builds are planned to be developed prior to
launch and will be used with NPP. In January 2008, IDPS hardware was
installed at one of the data processing centers (NOAA's National
Satellite Operations Facility in Suitland, Maryland) and is expected to
be installed at the Air Force Weather Agency in the spring. In
addition, the Air Force Weather Agency has begun early testing of
NPOESS data. Site acceptance testing for NPP is scheduled to be
completed in December 2008.
Ground segment component/description: Ground stations for receiving
satellite data; 15 unmanned ground stations around the world (called
SafetyNet™) are to receive satellite data and send it to the four data
processing centers;
Program-identified risk level: Low;
Status: NOAA is working with domestic and foreign authorities to obtain
approval to operate ground stations to receive satellite data.
According to agency officials, the full complement of ground stations
will not be in place in time for the first NPOESS satellite launch. The
ground stations will be phased in by the launch of the second
satellite. To date, the program office has reached agreement with 4 of
15 ground station sites.
Ground segment component/description: Command, control, and
communications segment; Performs the day-to-day monitoring and command
of the spacecraft and sensors;
Program-identified risk level: Low;
Status: The command, control, and communications segment is being
developed in a series of builds. In August 2007, build 1.4 transitioned
from development to operations and support. In addition, the command,
control, and communications acceptance testing for NPP has been
completed.
Source: GAO summary of NPOESS program office data.
[End of table]
Using contractor-provided data, our analysis of the earned value data
for the ground segment indicates that cost and schedule performance
were generally on track between March 2007 and February 2008 (see fig.
7). Between these dates, the contractor completed slightly more work
than planned on both the IDPS and command, control, and communications
components. In addition, the contractor finished slightly over budget
for the IDPS component and slightly under budget for the command,
control, and communications component. This caused cost and schedule
variances that were less than 1 percent off of expectations.
Figure 7: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variances for the NPOESS Ground
Segment over a 12-month Period:
[See PDF for image]
This figure is a multiple line graph depicting the following data:
Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variances for the NPOESS Ground Segment
over a 12-month Period:
Date: March 7, 2007;
Cost variance: $0.5 million;
Schedule variance: $0.2 million.
Date: April 7, 2007;
Cost variance: $0.7 million;
Schedule variance: 0.
Date: May 7, 2007;
Cost variance: $0.9 million;
Schedule variance: 0.
Date: June 7, 2007;
Cost variance: $0.4 million;
Schedule variance: -$0.1 million.
Date: July 7, 2007;
Cost variance: $0.4 million;
Schedule variance: -$0.1 million.
Date: August 7, 2007;
Cost variance: $0.5 million;
Schedule variance: -$0.2 million.
Date: September 7, 2007;
Cost variance: $0.3 million;
Schedule variance: $0.3 million.
Date: October 7, 2007;
Cost variance: $0.1 million;
Schedule variance: $0.3 million.
Date: November 7, 2007;
Cost variance: $0.3 million;
Schedule variance: $0.4 million.
Date: December 7, 2007;
Cost variance: -$0.6 million;
Schedule variance: $0.2 million.
Date: January 8, 2008;
Cost variance: $0.3 million;
Schedule variance: $0.3 million.
Date: February 8, 2008;
Cost variance: $0.4 million;
Schedule variance: $0.2 million.
Source: GAO analysis based on contractor data.
[End of figure]
Space Segment: Progress Made, but One Sensor Has Been Delayed and
Sensors Continue to Face Risks:
Over the past year, the program made progress on the development of the
space segment, which includes the sensors and the spacecraft. Five
sensors are of critical importance because they are to be launched on
the NPP satellite.[Footnote 12] Initiating work on another sensor, the
Microwave Imager Sounder, is also important because this new sensor--
which is to replace the canceled Conical-scanned microwave imager/
sounder sensor--will need to be developed in time for the second NPOESS
satellite launch. Among other activities, the program has successfully
completed ambient testing of the VIIRS flight unit, structural
vibration testing of the flight unit of the Cross-track infrared
sounder, risk reduction testing of the flight unit of the Ozone mapper/
profiler suite, and thermal testing of the NPP spacecraft with three
sensors on board.[Footnote 13] In addition, the program made decisions
on how to proceed with the Microwave imager sounder and plans to
contract with a government laboratory by the end of April 2008.
However, the program experienced problems on VIIRS, including poor
workmanship on selected subcomponents and delays in completing key
tests. These issues delayed VIIRS delivery to the NPP contractor by 8
months. This late delivery will in turn delay the NPP launch from late
September 2009 to early June 2010. This delay in NPP shortens the time
available for incorporating lessons learned from NPP while it is in
orbit into future NPOESS missions and could lead to gaps in the
continuity of climate and weather data if predecessor satellites fail
prematurely. Also, the Cross-track infrared sounder sensor experienced
a cost overrun and schedule delays as the contractor worked to recover
from a structural failure. The status and risk level of each of the
components of the space segment is described in table 7.
Table 7: Status of Selected Components of the Space Segment, as of
January 2008:
Space segment component: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite;
Program-identified risk level: High;
Status: In April 2007, we reported that the contractor had identified a
problem with the VIIRS baseline filter during environmental testing
that caused degraded performance in the filter's image quality.
Specifically, this problem involves light leaking across the seams of
the filter, resulting in inaccurate measurements of ocean color. In
October 2007, the NPOESS Executive Committee decided to continue sensor
development with the baseline filter because changing it would increase
risks to sensor development, delay the delivery of the sensor, and risk
delays to the launch of NPP. An improved VIIRS filter is planned to be
included on the flight units on future NPOESS missions. More recently,
the VIIRS contractor experienced problems with workmanship on
electrical and cryoradiator components and delays in executing
tests.[A] These factors slowed the sensor's development. The VIIRS
flight unit was originally scheduled to be delivered to NPP by July
2008, but due to technical issues and testing schedule delays, VIIRS'
delivery to NPP is now planned for April 2009.
Space segment component: Cross-track infrared sounder (CrIS);
Program- identified risk level: Moderate;
Status: In April 2007, we reported that development of CrIS was put on
hold in October 2006 when the flight unit designated to go on NPP
experienced a major structural failure during its vibration testing.
Acceptance testing began again in mid-2007, and the structural
stability of the frame was approved in August 2007. The flight unit is
currently undergoing thermal vacuum testing. The flight unit was
expected to be delivered to NPP by February 2008, but it is now
expected to be delivered in May 2008.
Space segment component: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir and limb);
Program-identified risk level: Low;
Status: In April 2007, program officials had agreed to fund the
reintegration of the limb component on NPP. By December 2007, the first
flight unit completed key integration risk reduction testing. It is
expected to be delivered to the NPP contractor for integration in
August 2008.
Space segment component: Advanced technology microwave sounder;
Program-identified risk level: Low;
Status: The flight unit for NPP was developed by a NASA contractor and
delivered to the program in October 2005. The NPP contractor integrated
the flight unit on the spacecraft in December 2006 and is awaiting
delivery of the other sensors in order to complete integration testing.
Space segment component: Clouds and the earth's radiant energy system;
Program-identified risk level: Not yet rated;
Status: In January 2008, the NPOESS Executive Committee approved
including this instrument on NPP. The sensor has already been built but
requires some refurbishment. It is expected to be delivered to the NPP
spacecraft for integration in October 2008. In January 2008, the
program office was directed to develop an additional sensor for the C1
satellite.
Space segment component: Microwave imager/sounder;
Program-identified risk level: Not yet rated;
Status: A new microwave imager/sounder sensor is being planned to
replace the canceled Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder. The
program office anticipates awarding a contract to develop the sensor by
the end of April 2008.
Space segment component: Spacecraft;
Program-identified risk level: Low;
Status: Both the development of the spacecraft for NPP and the
spacecraft for NPOESS are on track. The NPP spacecraft was completed in
June 2005. The NPP contractor has completed over a year's worth of risk
reduction activities, which included thermal testing of the spacecraft
with three of the sensors on board. A preliminary audit of the
spacecraft design for NPOESS was completed on schedule in November
2007. However, a remaining risk involves a key control system, which
has caused a labor increase and is taking longer than anticipated to
resolve. The critical design review of the first NPOESS spacecraft is
scheduled to be completed in April 2009, with the launch date scheduled
for January 2013.
Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.
[A] The cryoradiator is a key component of the VIIRS sensor. It is
intended to cool down components of the sensor.
[End of table]
Our analysis of contractor-provided earned value data showed that the
NPOESS space segment has experienced negative cost and schedule
variances between March 2007 and February 2008 (see fig. 8).
Specifically, the contractor exceeded cost targets for the space
segment by $15.1 million --which is 5.1 percent of the $298.2 million
space segment budget for that time period. Similarly, the contractor
was unable to complete $2 million worth of work in the space segment--
which is less than 1 percent of the space segment budget for that time
period.
Figure 8: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space
Segment over a 12-Month Period:
[See PDF for image]
This figure is a multiple line graph depicting the following data:
Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space Segment over
a 12-Month Period:
Date: March 2007;
Cost variance: -$0.1 million;
Schedule variance: -$0.5 million.
Date: April 2007;
Cost variance: $0.5 million;
Schedule variance: -$1.5 million.
Date: May 2007;
Cost variance: -$1.5 million;
Schedule variance: -$2.9 million.
Date: June 2007;
Cost variance: -$2.0 million;
Schedule variance: -$1.6 million.
Date: July 2007;
Cost variance: -$2.4 million;
Schedule variance: -$2.9 million.
Date: August 2007;
Cost variance: -$5.8 million;
Schedule variance: -$4.4 million.
Date: September 2007;
Cost variance: -$7.9 million;
Schedule variance: -$6.8 million.
Date: October 2007;
Cost variance: -$11.2 million;
Schedule variance: -$7.3 million.
Date: November 2007;
Cost variance: -$12.3 million;
Schedule variance: -$5.2 million.
Date: December 2007;
Cost variance: -$17.4 million;
Schedule variance: -$3.4 million.
Date: January 2008;
Cost variance: -$14.5 million;
Schedule variance: -$1.5 million.
Date: February 2008;
Cost variance: -$15.1 million;
Schedule variance: -$2 million.
Source: GAO analysis based on contractor data.
[End of figure]
Program Risks Remain; Continued Oversight Is Needed to Prevent Further
Cost Increases and Schedule Delays:
Moving forward, the program continues to face risks. Over the next 2
years, it will need to complete the development of the key sensors,
test them, integrate and test them on the NPP spacecraft, and test
these systems with the ground-based data processing systems. In
addition, the program faces two other issues that could affect its
overall schedule and cost. One is that there continues to be
disagreement between NOAA and DOD on the appropriate level of system
security. To date, NPOESS has been designed and developed to meet DOD's
standards for a mission essential system, but NOAA officials believe
that the system should be built to meet more stringent standards.
Implementing more stringent standards could cause rework and retesting,
and potentially affect the cost and schedule of the system. Another
issue is that program life cycle costs could increase once a better
estimate of the cost of operations and support is known. The $12.5
billion estimated life cycle cost for NPOESS includes a rough estimate
of $1 billion for operations and support. Program officials have
identified the potential for this cost to grow as a moderate risk.
The NPOESS program office is working closely with the contractor and
subcontractors to resolve these program risks. To address sensor risks,
the program office and officials from NASA's Goddard Space Flight
Center commissioned an independent review team to assess the
thoroughness and adequacy of practices being used in the assembly,
integration, and testing of the VIIRS and CrIS instruments in
preparation for the NPP spacecraft. The team found that the contractors
for both sensors had sound test programs in place, but noted risks with
VIIRS's schedule and with CrIS's reliability and performance. The
program office adjusted the VIIRS testing schedule and is monitoring
the CrIS testing results. In addition, the program office recently
instituted biweekly senior-level management meetings to review progress
on VIIRS's development, and program officials noted that both the prime
contractor and the program executive office will have senior officials
onsite at the contractor's facility to provide extensive, day-to-day
oversight of management activities to assist in resolving issues.
To address the risk posed by changing security requirements late in the
system's development, program officials commissioned a study to
determine the effect of more stringent standards on the system. This
study was completed by the end of March 2008, but has not yet been
released. To address the risk of cost growth due to poor estimates of
operations and support costs, DOD's cost analysis group is currently
refining this estimate. A revised estimate is expected by June 2008.
The program office is aware of program risks and is working to mitigate
them, but continued problems could affect the program's overall
schedule and cost. Given the tight time frames for completing key
sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and getting the ground-
based data processing system developed, tested, and deployed, it is
important for the NPOESS program office, the Program Executive Office,
and the Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of
milestones and risks.
Program Office Identified Preferred Timelines for Decisions on
Restoring Sensors to NPOESS:
When the Nunn-McCurdy restructuring agreement removed certain sensors
from NPOESS, the program was instructed to plan for the reintegration
of those sensors. Specifically, the certification decision directed the
program to build each NPOESS spacecraft with enough room and power to
accommodate the sensors that were removed from the program and to fund
the integration and testing of any sensors that are later restored.
Agency sponsors external to the program are responsible for justifying
and funding the sensor's development, while the NPOESS Executive
Committee has the final decision on whether to include the sensor on a
specific satellite. Table 8 denotes sensors that were canceled under
the Nunn-McCurdy agreement, but could be restored to the different
satellites.
Table 8: Sensors That Could be Restored to NPOESS Satellites:
Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
this satellite.
Sensor: Advanced technology microwave sounder;
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.
Sensor: Cross-track infrared sounder;
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Currently planned for this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.
Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor;
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
this satellite.
Sensor: OMPS (limb);
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
this satellite.
Sensor: Radar altimeter;
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.
Sensor: Space environmental sensor suite;
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.
Sensor: Survivability sensor;
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.
Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
this satellite;
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.
Source: GAO analysis of agency data.
Note: In order to mitigate risks, program officials do not plan to
consider any changes to the first NPOESS satellite (C1).
[End of table]
The NPOESS program office has requested that any entities that plan to
restore a sensor to an NPOESS satellite provide them 6 years' notice.
This includes 4 years for the sensor to be developed and tested, and 2
years for integration and testing on the spacecraft. Table 9 provides a
listing of dates based on current launch dates for each NPOESS
satellite.
Table 9: Program's Timelines for Restoring Canceled Sensors:
Satellite: C1[A];
Sensor notice preferred by (date): n/a;
Sensor needed for integration and testing: n/a;
Planned satellite launch: January 2013.
Satellite: C2;
Sensor notice preferred by (date): January 2010;
Sensor needed for integration and testing: January 2014;
Planned satellite launch: January 2016.
Satellite: C3;
Sensor notice preferred by (date): January 2012;
Sensor needed for integration and testing: January 2016;
Planned satellite launch: January 2018.
Satellite: C4;
Sensor notice preferred by (date): January 2014;
Sensor needed for integration and testing: January 2018;
Planned satellite launch: January 2020.
Source: NPOESS Integrated Program Office.
[A] In order to mitigate risks, program officials do not plan to
consider changes to the first NPOESS satellite (C1).
[End of table]
The program office developed its tentative timelines using historical
data for similar programs, but program officials reported that more or
less time might be required depending on the status of the sensor to be
added. For example, a sensor based on existing sensors may require less
time, while a more advanced sensor could require more time.
Agencies Have Undertaken Preliminary Steps to Restore Key Sensors, but
Lack Timely Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity:
NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to restore the
capabilities of selected climate and space weather sensors that were
degraded or removed from the NPOESS program by prioritizing the
sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions to
restore two sensors in order to mitigate near-term data gaps. However,
the agencies have not yet developed plans to mitigate the loss of these
sensors on a long-term basis. Best practices in strategic planning
suggest that agencies develop and implement long-term plans to guide
their short-term activities. Until such plans are developed, the
agencies may lose their windows of opportunity for selecting cost-
effective options or they may resort to an ad hoc approach to restoring
these sensors. Lacking plans almost 2 years after key sensors were
removed from the NPOESS program, the agencies face increased risk of
gaps in the continuity of climate and space environment data.
While NPOESS was originally envisioned to provide only weather
observations, this mission was later expanded to include long-term
continuity for key climate data. Maintaining the continuity of climate
and space data over decades is important to identify long-term
environmental cycles (such as the 11-year solar cycle and multiyear
ocean cycles including the El Niño effect) and their impacts, and to
detect trends in climate change and global warming. The Nunn-McCurdy
restructuring decision removed four sensors[Footnote 14] and degraded
the functionality of four other sensors that were to provide these
data. DOD, NASA, and NOAA are now responsible for determining what to
restore, how to restore it, and the means for doing so. This
responsibility includes justifying the additional funding needed to
develop these sensors within their respective agencies' investment
decision processes. Best practices of leading organizations call for
defining a strategic plan to formalize priorities and plans for meeting
mission goals. Such a plan would include the agency's long-term goals
for climate and space weather measurements, the short-term activities
needed to attain these goals, and the milestones and resources needed
to support the planned activities.
NASA, NOAA, and DOD Have Identified Priorities, Assessed Options, and
Made Decisions to Restore Two Sensors:
Since the June 2006 restructuring, NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken
preliminary steps to restore sensor capabilities by determining
priorities for restoring sensor capabilities, assessing options for
obtaining sensor data over time, and making decisions to restore
selected sensors. Specifically, in August 2006, the NPOESS Senior User
Advisory Group--a group representing NASA, NOAA, and DOD system users-
-assessed the impact of the canceled or degraded sensors and identified
priorities for restoring them. In January 2007, a NOAA and NASA working
group on climate sensors prioritized which of the sensors were most
important to restore for climate purposes and proposed possible
solutions and mitigation efforts. In addition, the National Research
Council (NRC) reported on the impact of the canceled sensors.[Footnote
15] Table 10 summarizes the results of these studies.
Table 10: Summary of Studies on Impacts of the Loss of Sensors and
Priorities for Restoring Them:
Sensor/Description: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
Likely impact of sensor loss:
* Decreased ability to improve air quality monitoring over time;
* Decreased ability to improve understanding of aerosol's impact on the
earth's radiation budget; that is, whether aerosols play a role in
global warming;
* Decreased ability to study the global distribution of aerosols and
the impact of aerosols on climate;
* Decreased ability to improve military munitions targeting and
intelligence collection;
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 6;
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 7.
Sensor/Description: Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder, to be
replaced by the Microwave imager/sounder;
Likely impact of sensor loss:
* Cancellation of the Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder raised
concerns about the loss of critical environmental data including sea
surface temperatures, ice and snow cover, and ocean surface wind speed;
* The Microwave imager/sounder is intended to replace the Conical-
scanned microwave imager/sounder. However, because the new sensor's
capabilities have not yet been fully defined, the impact of the
cancellation of the Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder is not
clear;
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 5;
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 2.
Sensor/Description: Earth radiation budget sensor (being replaced on
selected satellites by an existing sensor, the Clouds and the earth's
radiant energy system);
Likely impact of sensor loss:
* Decreased ability to measure the amount of energy entering and
leaving the earth;
* Reduced ability to determine the causes of climate variability and
change;
* Disruption of an over 28-year measurement heritage of earth radiation
budget data, which is needed to assess long-term trends;
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 2;
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 6.
Sensor/Description: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
Likely impact of sensor loss:
* Decreased ability to understand the health of the ozone layer which
absorbs solar ultraviolet radiation that is potentially harmful to
humans;
* Decreased ability to improve global warming and air quality models to
differentiate the impact of changing ozone levels within the
atmosphere;
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 4;
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 4.
Sensor/Description: Space environmental sensor suite (to be replaced on
selected satellites by an existing technology sensor, the Space
environment monitor);
Likely impact of sensor loss:
* Decreased understanding of the effect of space weather on military
and civilian communications and electrical systems;
* Decreased situational awareness for missile intercept capabilities;
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: unranked;
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 1.
Sensor/Description: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Likely impact of sensor loss:
* Decreased ability to understand the influence of natural causes of
climate change;
* Disruption of an over 28-year measurement heritage of solar
irradiance data, which is needed to assess long-term trends;
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 1;
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 5.
Sensor/Description: Radar altimeter;
Likely impact of sensor loss:
* Reduced number of sea surface height and other ocean measurements
used in climate monitoring;
* Decreased ability to measure sea-air interactions that affect
regional weather patterns, such as El Niño;
* Decreased understanding of storm intensification (e.g., hurricanes),
coastal turbulence, and underwater features important to sailors;
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 3;
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 3.
Sensor/Description: Survivability sensor;
Likely impact of sensor loss:
* Sensor was to identify possible threats to the NPOESS spacecraft and
has no impact on climate observations;
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: unranked;
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 8.
Source: GAO analysis of NASA, NOAA, DOD, and NRC data.
[End of table]
In addition to prioritizing the sensors, NASA, NOAA, and DOD identified
a variety of options for obtaining key sensor data over the next two
decades and continue to seek other options. The agencies identified
options including adding sensors back to a later NPOESS satellite,
adding sensors to another planned satellite, and developing a new
satellite to include several of the sensors. Examples of options for
several sensors are provided in figure 9. In addition, in December
2007, NOAA released a request for information to determine whether
commercial providers could include selected environmental sensors on
their satellites.
Figure 9: Selected Options for Restoring Selected Climate Sensors, as
of January 2008:
[See PDF for image]
This figure is an illustration of selected options for restoring
selected climate sensors, as of January 2008, as follows:
Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
Mission: Glory [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2009-2013.
Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
Mission: NPOESS C1 [Current or planned mission that will carry
sensor(s)];
Year: 2013-2019.
Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
Mission: NPOESS C3 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2018-2024.
Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2020-2025.
Sensor: Altimeter;
Mission: Jason-1 [Current or planned mission that will carry
sensor(s)];
Year: 2007-2009.
Sensor: Altimeter;
Mission: OSTM [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2008-2013.
Sensor: Altimeter;
Mission: Jason-3 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2013-2016.
Sensor: Altimeter;
Mission: NPOESS C2 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2016-2022.
Sensor: Altimeter;
Mission: Jason-4/Adv Alt 1 [Possible mission that could carry
sensor(s)];
Year: 2017-2020.
Sensor: Altimeter;
Mission: NPOESS C4 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2020-2026.
Sensor: Altimeter;
Mission: Jason-X/Adv Alt X [Possible mission that could carry
sensor(s)];
Year: 2021-2024.
Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
energy system;
Mission: Terra, Aqua [Current or planned mission that will carry
sensor(s)];
Year: 2007-2009.
Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
energy system;
Mission: NPP [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2010-2016.
Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
energy system;
Mission: NPOESS C1 [Current or planned mission that will carry
sensor(s));
Year: 2013-2019.
Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
energy system;
Mission: Climate Sat 1 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2014-2019.
Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
energy system;
Mission: NPOESS C3 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2018-2024.
Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
energy system;
Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2020-2025.
Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
Mission: Aura [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2007-2009.
Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
Mission: NPP [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2010-2016.
Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
Mission: NPOESS C1 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2013-2019.
Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
Mission: Climate Sat 1 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2014-2019.
Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
Mission: NPOESS C3 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2018-2024.
Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2020-2025.
Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Mission: SORCE [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2007-2013.
Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Mission: Glory [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2009-2013.
Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Mission: LandSat Data Continuity Mission [Planned mission that could
carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2011-2017.
Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Mission: Climate Sat 1 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2014-2019.
Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Mission: NPOESS C2 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2016-2022.
Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Mission: Flight of opportunity [Possible mission that could carry
sensor(s)];
Year: 2017-2022.
Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2020-2025.
Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
Mission: NPOESS C4 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2020-2026.
Source: DOD, NASA, and NOAA data.
Notes: The satellites Terra, Aqua, Aura, Glory, and the Solar radiation
and climate experiment (SORCE) are all NASA missions. The Landsat data
continuity mission is a joint mission between NASA and the U.S.
Geological Survey, Jason-1 is a joint mission between NASA and France,
and the Ocean surface topography mission (OSTM) is a joint mission
between NASA, NOAA, France, and the European Organization for the
Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites.
The MIS sensor is not included in this chart because NOAA, NASA, and
DOD have already agreed to include it on the second, third, and fourth
NPOESS satellites. Options for the Space environment sensor suite/Space
environment monitor and the Survivability sensor are not included
because DOD has not yet released them.
[End of figure]
In addition to prioritizing sensors and identifying options, over the
last year, NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken steps to restore two sensors
on a near-term basis. Specifically, in April 2007, the NPOESS Executive
Committee decided to restore the limb component of the Ozone mapper/
profiler suite to the NPP satellite and, in January 2008, to add the
Clouds and the earth's radiant energy system to NPP. These decisions
are expected to provide continuity for these sensors through
approximately 2015. NASA officials noted that they also took steps to
mitigate a potential gap in total solar irradiance data by proposing to
fund an additional 4 years of the SORCE mission (from 2008 to 2012).
Agencies Lack Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity:
While NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to address the
climate and space sensors that were removed from the NPOESS program
almost 2 years ago, they do not yet have plans for restoring climate
and space environment data on a long-term basis. The Office of Science
and Technology Policy, an organization within the Executive Office of
the President, is currently working with NASA, NOAA, and DOD to sort
through the costs and benefits of the various options and to develop
plans. However, this effort has been under way for almost 2 years and
officials could not estimate when such plans would be completed.
Delays in developing a comprehensive strategy for ensuring climate and
space data continuity may result in the loss of selected options. For
example, NASA and NOAA estimated that they would need to make a
decision on whether to include a Total solar irradiance sensor on its
planned Landsat Data Continuity Mission by March 2008, and on whether
to build another satellite to obtain ocean altimeter data in 2008.
Also, the NPOESS program office estimated that if any sensors are to be
restored to an NPOESS satellite, it would need a decision about 6 years
in advance of the planned satellite launch. Specifically, for a sensor
to be included on the second NPOESS satellite, the sponsoring agency
would need to commit to do so by January 2010.
Without a timely decision on a plan for restoring satellite data on a
long-term basis, NASA, NOAA, and DOD risk losing their windows of
opportunity on selected options and restoring sensors in an ad hoc
manner. Ultimately, the agencies risk a break in the continuity of
climate and space environment data. As national and international
concerns about climate change and global warming grow, these data are
more important than ever to try to understand long-term climate trends
and impacts.
Conclusions:
Over the past year, program officials have completed major activities
associated with restructuring the NPOESS program and have made progress
in developing and testing sensors, ground systems, and the NPP
spacecraft. However, agency executives have still not signed off on key
acquisition documents that were to be completed in September 2007, and
one critical sensor has experienced technical problems and schedule
delays that have led program officials to delay the NPP launch date by
about 8 months. Any delay in the NPP launch date shortens the time
available for incorporating lessons learned from NPP onto future NPOESS
missions and could also lead to gaps in critical climate and weather
data.
When selected climate and space weather sensors were removed from the
NPOESS program during its restructuring, NASA, NOAA, and DOD became
responsible for determining what sensors to restore and how to restore
them. This responsibility includes justifying the additional funding
needed to develop these sensors within their respective agency's
investment decision processes. In the 2 years since the restructuring,
the agencies have identified their priorities and assessed their
options for restoring sensor capabilities. In addition, the agencies
made decisions to restore two sensors to the NPP satellite in order to
mitigate near-term data gaps. However, the agencies lack plans for
restoring sensor capabilities on a long-term basis. Without a timely
decision on a long-term plan for restoring satellite data, the agencies
risk a break in the continuity of climate and space environment data.
With the increased concern about climate change and global warming,
these data are more important than ever to try to understand long-term
climate trends and impacts.
Recommendations for Executive Action:
In order to bring closure to efforts that have been under way for
years, we are making recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and
Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to establish plans on whether
and how to restore the climate and space sensors removed from the
NPOESS program by June 2009, in cases where the sensors are warranted
and justified.
In addition, we are reemphasizing our prior recommendation that the
appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DOD executives immediately finalize key
acquisition documents.
Agency Comments:
We received written comments on a draft of this report from the
Secretary of the Department of Commerce (see app. III), the Deputy
Assistant Secretary for Networks and Information Integration of the
Department of Defense (see app. IV), and the Associate Administrator
for the Science Mission Directorate of the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (see app. V). In their comments, all three
agencies concurred with our recommendations. In addition, both the
Department of Commerce and NASA reiterated that they are working with
their partner agencies to finalize plans for restoring sensors to
address the nation's long-term needs for continuity of climate
measurements. Further, Commerce noted that DOD and NASA executives need
to weigh in to resolve issues at, or immediately below, their levels in
order to ensure prompt completion of the key acquisition documents.
NASA noted that difficulties in gaining consensus across all three
NPOESS agencies have delayed the signature of key acquisition
documents, and reported that they are committed to moving these
documents through the signature cycle once all of the issues and
concerns are resolved.
All three agencies also provided technical comments, which we have
incorporated in this report as appropriate.
As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents
of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days
from the report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report
to interested congressional committees, the Secretary of Commerce, the
Secretary of Defense, the Administrator of NASA, the Director of the
Office of Management and Budget, and other interested parties. In
addition, this report will be available at no charge on our Web site at
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov].
If you have any questions on matters discussed in this report, please
contact me at (202) 512-9286 or by e-mail at pownerd@gao.gov. Contact
points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs
may be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made major
contributions to this report are listed in appendix VI.
Signed by:
David A. Powner:
Director, Information Technology Management Issues:
[End of section]
Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology:
Our objectives were to (1) evaluate the National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program office's
progress in restructuring the acquisition, (2) assess the status of key
program components and risks, (3) identify how much notice the program
office would need if agency sponsors outside the program choose to
restore the eliminated or degraded sensors to the NPOESS program, and
(4) assess plans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA) for obtaining the environmental data
originally planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors, but then
eliminated under the restructuring.
To evaluate the NPOESS program office's progress in restructuring the
acquisition program, we reviewed the program's Nunn-McCurdy
certification decision memo, a later addendum to this decision, and
program documentation including copies of required documentation,
status briefings, and milestone progress reports. We also interviewed
program office officials and attended senior-level management program
review meetings to obtain information on the program's acquisition
restructuring.
To evaluate the status of key program components and risks, we reviewed
program documentation associated with the program and its key
components. We analyzed briefings and monthly program management
documents to determine the status and risks of the program and key
program segments. We also analyzed earned value management data
obtained from the contractor to assess the contractor's performance
against cost and schedule estimates. We obtained adequate assurance
that these agency-provided data had been tested and were sufficient for
our assessment purposes. We reviewed cost reports and program risk
management documents and interviewed program officials to determine
program and program segment risks that could negatively affect the
program's ability to maintain the current schedule and cost estimates.
We also interviewed agency officials from NASA, NOAA, DOD, and the
NPOESS program office to determine the status and risks of the key
program segments. Finally, we observed senior-level management review
meetings to obtain information on the status of the NPOESS program.
To identify how much notice the program office would need if agency
sponsors outside the program choose to restore the eliminated or
degraded sensors to the NPOESS program, we reviewed the restoration
requirements in the program's Nunn-McCurdy certification decision memo
and documentation related to the program's planning efforts. We also
interviewed senior officials in the NPOESS program office and the
Program Executive Office to obtain information on program plans related
to sensor restoration, the historical basis for these time frames, and
the flexibility of these time frames for different sensor technologies.
To assess agency plans for obtaining the environmental data originally
planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors but then eliminated under the
restructuring, we reviewed reports and briefings produced by NASA,
NOAA, DOD, and the National Research Council on the impact of
eliminated sensors and priorities for restoring them. We also
interviewed agency officials from NASA, NOAA, and DOD, and sought and
received answers to questions from the Office of Science and Technology
Policy regarding decisions to restore two sensors to the NPOESS
Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite.
We primarily performed our work at the NPOESS Integrated Program Office
and at DOD, NASA, and NOAA offices in the Washington, D.C.,
metropolitan area. In addition, we conducted work at NOAA offices in
Suitland, Maryland, and at the Air Force Weather Agency in Omaha,
Nebraska, because these sites will be the first two sites to host the
NPOESS data processing system and to receive NPP data. We also
conducted audit work at the Boulder, Colorado, facility of the
contractor that is to integrate sensors on the NPP satellite. We
conducted this performance audit from June 2007 to April 2008 in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
[End of section]
Appendix II: Status of Key Acquisition Documents:
Table 11 identifies the key NPOESS acquisition documents as well as
their original and revised due dates. Original due dates were specified
in the June 2006 restructuring decision memo. The revised due dates
were specified in an addendum to that memo, dated June 2007. Documents
that are in bold are overdue.
Table 11: Status of NPOESS Acquisition Documents:
Acquisition document: Alternative Management Plan;
Original due date: June 2007;
Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
Status: Completed.
Acquisition document: Award Fee Plan/Fee Management Plan (overdue);
Original due date: Unspecified;
Revised due date: October 1, 2007;
Status: Not completed.
Acquisition document: Acquisition Program Baseline (overdue);
Original due date: September 1, 2006;
Revised due date: December 1, 2007;
Status: Not completed.
Acquisition document: Acquisition Strategy Report (overdue);
Original due date: September 1, 2006;
Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
Status: Not completed.
Acquisition document: Test and Evaluation Master Plan (overdue);
Original due date: September 1, 2006;
Revised due date: March 1, 2008;
Status: Not completed.
Acquisition document: System Engineering Plan;
Original due date: September 1, 2006;
Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
Status: Completed.
Acquisition document: Two-Orbit Plan (overdue);
Original due date: November 15, 2006;
Revised due date: October 1, 2007;
Status: Not completed.
Acquisition document: Human Capital Management Plan (to fill vacancies
in the Integrated Program Office);
Original due date: August 4, 2006;
Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
Status: Completed.
Acquisition document: Logistics Support Plan;
Original due date: September 2006;
Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
Status: Completed.
Acquisition document: Diminishing Manufacturing Sources/Parts
Obsolescence Plan;
Original due date: September 2006;
Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
Status: Completed.
Acquisition document: Tri-agency Memorandum of Agreement (overdue);
Original due date: August 4, 2006;
Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
Status: Not completed.
Acquisition document: Integrated Master Plan;
Original due date: April 2007; Revised due date:
September 1, 2007;
Status: Completed.
Acquisition document: Quarterly Integrated Baseline Review;
Original due date: September 2006;
Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
Status: Completed.
Source: GAO analysis of DOD and NPOESS program office data.
[End of table]
[End of section]
Appendix III: Comments from the Department of Commerce:
The Secretary Of Commerce:
Washington, D.C. 20230:
April 3, 2008:
Mr. David A. Powner:
Director:
Information Technology Management Issues:
U.S. Government Accountability Office:
441 G Street, NW:
Washington, D.C. 20548:
Dear Mr. Powner:
Thank you for the opportunity to review and comment on the Government
Accountability Office's draft report entitled Environmental Satellites:
Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on
Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity (GAO-08-518). On
behalf of the Department of Commerce, I enclose the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration's comments on the draft report.
Sincerely,
Signed by: Carlos M. Gutierrez:
Enclosure:
Department of Commerce:
Comments on the Draft GAO Report Entitled "Environmental Satellites:
Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on
Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity"
(GAO-08-518/April 2008):
General Comments:
The Department of Commerce (DOC) appreciates the opportunity to review
this report on the National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite
System (NPOESS) program. The Government Accountability Office (GAO)
makes two recommendations, which it anticipates will bring closure to
efforts underway. Both recommendations are directed to DOC, as well as
to the Department of Defense (DoD) and the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA). Overall, the report was fair and balanced
and highlighted actions that are already underway for the program. DOC
is committed to ensuring the successful execution of the NPOESS
program.
NOAA Response to GAO Recommendations:
Recommendation 1: "In order to bring closure to efforts that have been
underway for years, we are making recommendations to the Secretaries of
Commerce and Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to establish
plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space sensors
removed from the NPOESS program by June 2009, in cases where the
sensors are warranted and justified."
NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with the recommendation and continues to
work with NASA, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), and
the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on long-term plans to restore
the climate sensors de-manifested from the NPOESS program. This
supplements coordination with DoD and NASA as part of the triagency
NPOESS Executive Committee. The FY 2009 President's Budget demonstrates
this commitment by advancing plans already underway to re-manifest two
key climate sensors through at least FY 2013. NOAA continues to work to
finalize plans for restoring additional sensors, in coordination with
NASA, OSTP, OMB, and DoD to address the nation's long-term need for
continuity of these critical climate measurements.
Recommendation 2: "In addition, we are reemphasizing our prior
recommendation that the appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DOD executives
immediately finalize key acquisition documents."
NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with this recommendation. Executive
attention and prompt resolution of the issues surrounding the
documentation required by the Acquisition Decision Memorandum is
required. All acquisition decision memorandum documents are proceeding
through coordination at DOC, DoD and NASA. DoD and NASA executives need
to weigh in to resolve issues at or immediately below their level.
[End of section]
Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Defense:
Office Of The Assistant Secretary Of Defense:
Networks And Information Integration:
6000 Defense Pentagon:
Washington, DC 20301-6000:
April 1, 2008:
Mr. David A. Powner
Director, Information Technology and Management Issues:
U.S. Government Accountability Office:
441 G Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20548:
Dear Mr. Powner,
This is the Department of Defense (DoD) response to the GAO Draft
Report, GAO-08-518, "Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite
Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure
Climate Data Continuity," dated March 6, 2008 (GAO Code 310848).
The DoD acknowledges receipt of this draft report and concurs with GAO
recommendations (attached).
Signed by:
Dr. Ronald C. Jost:
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (C3, Space and Spectrum):
Enclosure(s): As stated:
GAO Draft Report Dated March 6, 2008:
GAO-08-518 (GAO Code 310848)
"Environmental Satellites: Polar-Orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces
Delays; Decisions Needed On Whether And How To Ensure Climate Data
Continuity"
Department Of Defense Comments To The GAO Recommendations:
General Comments: The report recognizes the positive effects of the
restructured management for the program and also recognizes the
significant work ahead on the program. The draft GAO findings are
technically and programmatically consistent with the current NPOESS
program,
Recommendation 1: The GAO recommends that the Secretary of Defense
establish plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space
sensors removed from the National Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellite System program by June 2009, in cases where the
sensors are warranted and justified. (Page 43/GAO Draft Report)
DOD Response: Concur.
Recommendation 2: In addition, the GAO is reemphasizing a prior
recommendation that the appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DoD executives
immediately finalize key acquisition documents. (Page 43/GAO Draft
Report)
DOD Response: Concur. The System Engineering Plan was approved on 8 Nov
07.
Attachment:
[End of section]
Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration:
National Aeronautics and Space Administration:
Headquarters:
Washington, DC 20546-0001:
Reply to Attn of: SMD/Earth Science Division:
Mr. David A. Powner:
Director:
Information Technology Management Issues:
Government Accountability Office:
Washington, DC 20548:
Dear Mr. Powner:
Thank you for the opportunity to review your draft report entitled
"Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays: Decisions Needed on
Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity," (GAO-08-518)
specific to the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite System (NPOESS) program. The draft report contains two
recommendations applicable to NASA and we concur with both of these
recommendations.
We agree with the importance of signing the programmatic documentation
across all agencies. As documented in previous reports, the difficulty
of gaining consensus across all three NPOESS agencies has delayed the
signature on the remaining documents. We are committed to moving these
documents through the signature cycle as quickly as possible once all
of the issues and concerns are resolved.
With respect to a long-term plan for flying the demanifested NPOESS
sensors, NASA has taken significant steps to fly the Ozone Mapping and
Profiling Suite (OMPS) Limb sensor and the Clouds and the Earth's
Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors on the NPOESS Preparatory Project
(NPP) in order to mitigate the possibility of near term data gaps. This
effort has afforded us the opportunity consider many options for flight
of the remaining sensors for the long term. We have been working
closely with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
on the details of our long-term plans and will keep you informed of our
progress.
We will continue to work with NOAA and DoD toward the success of the
NPP and NPOESS programs. Thank you again for the opportunity to review
this draft report, and we are looking forward to your final report to
Congress.
If you have any questions or require additional information, please
contact Andrew Carson on (202) 358-1702.
Sincerely,
Signed by:
Edward J. Weiler:
Associate Administrator for Science Mission Directorate:
cc:
Science Mission Directorate/C.Gay:
T. May:
M. Freilich:
A. Carson:
M. Luther:
S. Volz:
[End of section]
Appendix VI GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
GAO Contact:
David A. Powner, (202) 512-9286, or pownerd@gao.gov:
Staff Acknowledgments:
In addition to the contact named above, Colleen Phillips (Assistant
Director), Carol Cha, Neil Doherty, Nancy Glover, Kathleen S. Lovett,
and Kelly Shaw made key contributions to this report.
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] GAO, Environmental Satellite Acquisitions: Progress and Challenges;
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1099T]
(Washington, D.C.: July 11, 2007); Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellites: Restructuring Is Under Way, but Challenges
and Risks Remain, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-
910T] (Washington, D.C.: June 7, 2007); Polar-orbiting Operational
Environmental Satellites: Restructuring Is Under Way, but Technical
Challenges and Risks Remain, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-
bin/getrpt?GAO-07-498] (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 27, 2007); Polar-
orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Cost Increases Trigger
Review and Place Program's Direction on Hold, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-573T] (Washington, D.C.: Mar.
30, 2006); Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites:
Technical Problems, Cost Increases, and Schedule Delays Trigger Need
for Difficult Trade-off Decisions, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-
bin/getrpt?GAO-06-249T] (Washington, D.C.: Nov. 16, 2005); Polar-
orbiting Environmental Satellites: Information on Program Cost and
Schedule Changes, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-
1054] (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 30, 2004); Polar-orbiting Environmental
Satellites: Project Risks Could Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian
and Military Users, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-
03-987T] (Washington, D.C.: July 15, 2003); and Polar-orbiting
Environmental Satellites: Status, Plans, and Future Data Management
Challenges, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-02-684T]
(Washington, D.C.: July 24, 2002).
[2] Three DMSP satellites remain to be launched. DOD has the option of
delaying the launch of the final DMSP satellite until 2016 if it is
needed to extend coverage in a different orbit.
[3] Presidential Decision Directive NSTC-2, May 5, 1994.
[4] The four sensors are the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite,
the Cross-track infrared sounder, the Advanced technology microwave
sounder, and the Ozone mapper/profiler suite.
[5] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-573T],
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-249T], [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-1054], [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-987T], and [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-02-684T].
[6] 10 U.S.C. § 2433 is commonly referred to as Nunn-McCurdy.
[7] 10 U.S.C. § 2433 has recently been amended by Pub. L. No. 109-163,
§ 802 (Jan. 6, 2006) and Pub. L. No. 109-364, § 213 (a) (Oct. 17,
2006). The law now also includes cost growth thresholds from the
program's original baseline.
[8] DOD estimated that the acquisition portion of the certified program
would cost $11.5 billion. The acquisition portion includes satellite
development, production, and launch, but not operations and support
costs after launch. When combined with an estimated $1 billion for
operations and support after launch, this brings the program life cycle
cost to $12.5 billion.
[9] The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological
Satellites' MetOp program is a series of three polar-orbiting
satellites dedicated to operational meteorology. MetOp satellites are
planned to be launched sequentially over 14 years. The first of these
satellites was launched in 2006 and is currently operational.
[10] According to program officials, although the Nunn-McCurdy
certification decision specifies NPP is to launch by January 2010, NASA
planned to launch it by September 2009 to reduce the possibility of a
climate data continuity gap.
[11] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-498].
[12] NPP is to include the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite,
Cross-track infrared sounder, Advanced technology microwave sounder,
Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir and limb), and the Clouds and the
earth's radiant energy system.
[13] The three sensors included the flight unit for the Advanced
technology microwave sounder and engineering design units for the
Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite and the Cross-track infrared
sounder.
[14] The restructuring decision provided for replacing one of the
removed sensors (the Conical microwave imager/sounder) with a sensor
with reduced functionality (the Microwave imager/sounder).
[15] National Research Council, Options to Ensure the Climate Record
from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (Washington,
D.C.: 2007. Prepublication)
[End of section]
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