Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites
Acquisition Has Increased Costs, Reduced Capabilities, and Delayed Schedules Gao ID: GAO-09-596T April 23, 2009The Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the aid of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), plans to procure the next generation of geostationary operational environmental satellites, called the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R). GOES-R is to replace the current series of satellites, which will likely begin to reach the end of their useful lives in 2014. This series is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through the year 2028. GAO was asked to summarize its report being released today that (1) determines the status of the GOES-R program, (2) evaluates whether plans for the acquisition address problems experienced on similar programs, and (3) determines whether NOAA's plan will be adequate to support current data requirements.
NOAA has made progress on the GOES-R acquisition, but the program's cost, schedule, and scope have changed. The GOES-R program has awarded development contracts for key instruments and plans to award contracts for the spacecraft and ground segments by mid-2009. However, after reconciling program and independent cost estimates, the program established a new cost estimate of $7.67 billion--a $670 million increase from the prior $7 billion estimate. The program also reduced the number of products the satellites will produce from 81 to 34 and slowed the delivery of these products in order to reduce costs. More recently, the program also delayed key milestones, including the launch of the first satellite, which will likely be delayed from December 2014 until at least May 2015. This delay in the GOES-R launch runs counter to NOAA's policy of having a backup satellite in orbit at all times and could lead to gaps in satellite coverage if GOES-O or P fail prematurely. GOES-R has taken steps to address lessons from other satellite programs, but important actions remain to be completed. These actions include ensuring sufficient technical readiness of the system's components prior to key decisions. However, technical challenges remain on the ground segment and instruments, the program did not perform a comprehensive review after rebaselining a critical instrument, and it has not documented all of the reasons for cost overruns. Until these issues are addressed, NOAA faces an increased risk that the GOES-R program will repeat the same mistakes that have plagued other satellite programs. While NOAA and the science community expressed a continuing need for advanced products that were removed from the program, the agency has not developed plans or a timeline for meeting these requirements. Until a decision is made on whether and how to proceed in providing the advanced products, key system users, such as weather forecasters, will not be able to meet their goals for improving the accuracy of severe weather warnings.
GAO-09-596T, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: Acquisition Has Increased Costs, Reduced Capabilities, and Delayed Schedules
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United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
Testimony:
Before the Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, Committee on Science
and Technology, House of Representatives:
For Release on Delivery:
Expected at 10:00 a.m. EDT:
Thursday, April 23, 2009:
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites:
Acquisition Has Increased Costs, Reduced Capabilities, and Delayed
Schedules:
Statement of David A. Powner:
Director, Information Technology Management Issues:
GAO-09-596T:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-09-596T, a testimony before the Subcommittee on
Energy and Environment, Committee on Science and Technology, House of
Representatives.
Why GAO Did This Study:
The Department of Commerce‘s National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), with the aid of the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA), plans to procure the next generation of
geostationary operational environmental satellites, called the
Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R).
GOES-R is to replace the current series of satellites, which will
likely begin to reach the end of their useful lives in 2014. This
series is considered critical to the United States‘ ability to maintain
the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through the
year 2028.
GAO was asked to summarize its report being released today that (1)
determines the status of the GOES-R program, (2) evaluates whether
plans for the acquisition address problems experienced on similar
programs, and (3) determines whether NOAA‘s plan will be adequate to
support current data requirements.
What GAO Found:
NOAA has made progress on the GOES-R acquisition, but the program‘s
cost, schedule, and scope have changed. The GOES-R program has awarded
development contracts for key instruments and plans to award contracts
for the spacecraft and ground segments by mid-2009. However, after
reconciling program and independent cost estimates, the program
established a new cost estimate of $7.67 billion”a $670 million
increase from the prior $7 billion estimate. The program also reduced
the number of products the satellites will produce from 81 to 34 and
slowed the delivery of these products in order to reduce costs. More
recently, the program also delayed key milestones, including the launch
of the first satellite, which will likely be delayed from December 2014
until at least May 2015. This delay in the GOES-R launch runs counter
to NOAA‘s policy of having a backup satellite in orbit at all times and
could lead to gaps in satellite coverage if GOES-O or P fail
prematurely (see graphic below).
Figure: Potential Gap in GOES Satellite Coverage:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
GOES-13:
2009: Available as backup;
2010-2014: Expected operational life.
GOES-O:
2009: Launch date;
2009: Post launch test period;
2009-2011: Available as backup;
2012-2016: Expected operational life.
GOES-P:
2010: Launch date;
2010: Post launch test period;
2010-2014: Available as backup;
2014-2019: Expected operational life.
GOES-R:
2015: Launch date;
2015: Post launch test period;
2016: Available as backup;
2016-2020: Expected operational life.
GOES-S:
2016: Launch date;
2016: Post launch test period;
2017-2019: Available as backup;
2019-2020: Expected operational life.
Projected gap in backup coverage: 2015.
Source: GAO analysis of NOAA data.
[End of figure]
GOES-R has taken steps to address lessons from other satellite
programs, but important actions remain to be completed. These actions
include ensuring sufficient technical readiness of the system‘s
components prior to key decisions. However, technical challenges remain
on the ground segment and instruments, the program did not perform a
comprehensive review after rebaselining a critical instrument, and it
has not documented all of the reasons for cost overruns. Until these
issues are addressed, NOAA faces an increased risk that the GOES-R
program will repeat the same mistakes that have plagued other satellite
programs.
While NOAA and the science community expressed a continuing need for
advanced products that were removed from the program, the agency has
not developed plans or a timeline for meeting these requirements. Until
a decision is made on whether and how to proceed in providing the
advanced products, key system users, such as weather forecasters, will
not be able to meet their goals for improving the accuracy of severe
weather warnings.
What GAO Recommends:
In its report, GAO recommended that the program take steps to improve
management and oversight and determine whether and how to recover
certain capabilities that were removed from the program. In comments on
a draft of this report, the Acting Secretary of Commerce agreed with
GAO‘s recommendations and stated that the agency plans to implement
them.
To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-596T]. For more
information, contact David A. Powner, (202) 512-9286, pownerd@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:
Thank you for the opportunity to participate in today's hearing on our
nation's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R)
series. The GOES-R series is to replace the current series of
satellites, which will likely begin to reach the end of their useful
lives in approximately 2014. This new series is expected to mark the
first major technological advance in GOES instrumentation since 1994.
It is also considered critical to the United States' ability to
maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting
through the year 2028. As requested, this statement summarizes our
report being released today that (1) determines the status of the
program, (2) evaluates whether plans for the GOES-R acquisition address
problems experienced on similar programs, and (3) determines whether
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) plan to
address the capabilities that were planned for the satellites, but then
removed, will be adequate to support current data requirements.
[Footnote 1]
In preparing this testimony, we relied on our work supporting the
accompanying report. That report contains a detailed overview of our
scope and methodology. In addition, we updated factual information on
satellite launch schedules as warranted. All of our work for this
report was performed in accordance with generally accepted government
auditing standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform
the audit to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a
reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit
objectives. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable
basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives.
Background:
NOAA operates GOES as a two-satellite system that is primarily focused
on the United States. These satellites are uniquely positioned to
provide timely environmental data about the earth's atmosphere, its
surface, cloud cover, and the space environment to meteorologists and
their audiences. They also observe the development of hazardous
weather, such as hurricanes and severe thunderstorms, and track their
movement and intensity to reduce or avoid major losses of property and
life. Furthermore, the satellites' ability to provide broad,
continuously updated coverage of atmospheric conditions over land and
oceans is important to NOAA's weather forecasting operations.
To provide continuous satellite coverage, NOAA acquires several
satellites at a time as part of a series and launches new satellites
every few years (see table 1). NOAA's policy is to have two operational
satellites and one backup satellite in orbit at all times.
Table 1: Summary of the Procurement History of GOES:
Series name: Original GOES[B];
Procurement duration[A]: 1970-1987;
Satellites: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.
Series name: GOES I-M;
Procurement duration[A]: 1985-2001;
Satellites: 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.
Series name: GOES-N;
Procurement duration[A]: 1998-2010;
Satellites: 13, O, P, Q[C].
Series name: GOES-R;
Procurement duration[A]: 2008-2016;
Satellites: R, S.
Source: GAO analysis of NOAA data.
[A] Duration includes time from contract award to final satellite
launch.
[B] The procurement of these satellites consisted of four separate
contracts for (1) two early prototype satellites and GOES-1, (2) GOES-
2 and -3, (3) GOES-4 through -6, and (4) GOES-G (failed on launch) and
GOES-7.
[C] NOAA decided not to exercise the option for this satellite.
[End of table]
Four GOES satellites--GOES-10, GOES-11, GOES-12, and GOES-13--are
currently in orbit. Both GOES-11 and GOES-12 are operational
satellites, with GOES-12 covering the east and GOES-11 the west. GOES-
13 is currently in an on-orbit storage mode. It is a backup for the
other two satellites should they experience any degradation in service.
GOES-10 is at the end of its service life, but it is being used to
provide limited coverage of South America. The others in the series,
GOES-O and GOES-P, are planned for launch over the next 2
years.[Footnote 2] NOAA is also planning the next generation of
satellites, known as the GOES-R series, which are planned for launch
beginning in 2015.
GOES-R Program--An Overview:
NOAA plans for the GOES-R program to improve on the technology of prior
series, in terms of both system and instrument improvements. The system
improvements are expected to fulfill more demanding user requirements
by updating the satellite data more often and providing satellite
products to users more quickly. The instrument improvements are
expected to significantly increase the clarity and precision of the
observed environmental data. NOAA originally planned to acquire six
different types of instruments.
In September 2006, however, NOAA decided to reduce the scope and
technical complexity of the GOES-R program because of expectations that
total costs, which were originally estimated to be $6.2 billion, could
reach $11.4 billion.[Footnote 3] Specifically, NOAA reduced the minimum
number of satellites from four to two, canceled plans for developing a
critical instrument--the Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (which
reduced the number of planned satellite products from 81 to 68), and
divided the Solar Imaging Suite into two separate acquisitions. The
agency estimated that the revised program would cost $7 billion. In
addition to the reductions in scope, NOAA also delayed the launch of
the first satellite from September 2012 to December 2014.
NOAA is solely responsible for GOES-R program funding and overall
mission success. However, since it relies on the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration's (NASA) acquisition experience and technical
expertise to help ensure the success of its programs, NOAA implemented
an integrated program management structure with NASA for the GOES-R
program. Within the program office, there are two project offices that
manage key components of the GOES-R system--the flight and ground
segment project offices. The flight project office, managed by NASA, is
responsible for awarding and managing the spacecraft segment contract,
delivering flight-ready instruments to the spacecraft segment
contractor for integration onto the satellites, and overseeing the
systems engineering and integration. The ground segment project office,
managed by NOAA, oversees the ground contract, satellite data product
development and distribution, and on-orbit operations of the
satellites.
GOES-R Is in Development, but Costs Have Increased, Envisioned
Functionality Has Been Reduced, and Schedules Have Been Delayed:
NOAA and NASA have made progress on the GOES-R program. In January
2008, NOAA approved the program's move from the preliminary design and
definition phase to the development phase of the acquisition life
cycle. This approval also gave the program the authority to issue the
requests for proposals for the spacecraft and ground segment projects-
-which it did in January 2008 and May 2008, respectively. The program
office plans to award the prime contract for the spacecraft segment in
May 2009 and the contract for the ground segment in June 2009. In
addition, between September 2004 and December 2007, the GOES-R program
awarded contracts for the development of five key instruments.[Footnote
4] These instruments are currently in varying stages of development.
Figure 1 depicts the schedule for both the program and key instruments.
Figure 1: Planned Schedule for GOES-R Program and Key Instruments:
[Refer to PDF for image: illustration]
Program start: 2003;
Contract award and completion dates for the development of five key
instruments:
Advanced Baseline Imager:
Award: Mid-2004;
Completion: Mid-2012.
Space Environmental In-Situ Suite:
Award: Mid-2006;
Completion: Mid-2012.
Extreme Ultraviolet/X-Ray Irradiance Sensor:
Award: Mid-2007;
Completion: Mid-2012.
Solar Ultraviolet Imager:
Award: Mid-2007;
Completion: Late-2012.
Geostationary Lightning Mapper:
Award: Late-2007
Completion: Mid-2012.
Development phase begins: 2008;
Space contract award: 2009.
Ground contract award: 2009.
Key instruments complete: 2012.
GOES-R launch: 2015.
GOES-S launch: 2018.
Program end: 2028.
Source: GAO analysis of NOAA data.
[End of figure]
GOES-R Cost Estimate Has Increased, Envisioned Functionality Has Been
Reduced, and Key Milestones Have Slipped:
NOAA has made several important decisions about the cost, scope, and
schedule of the GOES-R program. After reconciling the program office's
cost estimate with an independent cost estimate, the agency established
a new program cost estimate of $7.67 billion, an increase of $670
million from the previous estimate. Agency officials plan to revisit
this cost estimate after the spacecraft and ground segment contracts
are awarded but stated that it was developed with a relatively high
level of confidence and that they believe that any adjustments would be
well within the $7.67 billion program budget.
To mitigate the risk that costs would rise, program officials decided
to remove selected program requirements from the baseline program and
treat them as options that could be exercised if funds allow. These
requirements include the number of products to be distributed, the time
to deliver the remaining products (product latency), and how often
these products are updated with new satellite data (refresh rate).
Specifically, program officials eliminated the requirement to develop
and distribute 34 of the 68 envisioned products, including aircraft
icing threat, turbulence, and visibility. Program officials explained
that these products are not currently being produced by legacy GOES
satellites; they are new products that could be produced from the
advanced GOES-R instruments. In addition, the program slowed planned
product latency on the remaining products by as much as 10 minutes for
hurricane intensity and 6 minutes for volcanic ash detection and
height. It also reduced the refresh rates on these products by as much
as 55 minutes for sea surface temperatures, cloud top observations, and
vertical moisture profiles in the atmosphere. Program officials
included the restoration of the products, latency, and refresh rates as
options in the ground segment contract--items that could be acquired at
a later time.
NOAA also delayed GOES-R program milestones including the dates for
issuing the requests for proposals by up to 6 months and awarding the
contracts for the spacecraft and ground segments by 12 and 10 months,
respectively. The dates when the satellites would be available for
launch have also slipped by 4 months, with the first satellite launch
now scheduled for April 2015. Program officials attributed these delays
to providing more stringent oversight before releasing the requests for
proposals, additional time needed to evaluate the contract proposals,
and funding reductions in fiscal year 2008.
Recent events have raised doubts about the feasibility of the GOES-R
launch date. Specifically, after the spacecraft segment contract was
awarded and then protested in December 2008, NASA decided to re-
evaluate the proposals. NASA now plans to re-award the contract in May
2009. Because NASA has agreed to a 72-month development cycle for the
spacecraft segment (from contract award date to launch readiness), the
launch date of GOES-R will likely be delayed until at least May 2015.
Any delays in the launch of the first GOES-R satellite run counter to
NOAA's policy of having a backup satellite in orbit at all times and
could lead to gaps in satellite coverage. This policy proved useful in
December 2008, when NOAA lost communication with GOES-12, but was able
to use GOES-13 as an operational satellite until communication was
restored. However, beginning in November 2014, NOAA expects to have two
operational satellites in orbit (O and P), but it will not have a
backup satellite in place until GOES-R is launched. If NOAA experiences
a problem with either of its operational satellites before GOES-R is in
orbit, it will need to rely on older satellites that are beyond their
expected operational lives and therefore may not be fully functional.
The GOES-R Program Office Has Taken Steps to Address Lessons Learned
from Other Satellite Programs, but Important Actions Remain:
GOES-R has taken steps to address lessons from other satellite
programs. These actions include ensuring sufficient technical readiness
of the spacecraft and ground segments prior to awarding the contracts.
However, key risks remain and important actions remain to be completed
in selected areas. Specifically, key technology risks remain--affecting
both the ground segment and the instruments. While the hardware that is
to be used for the ground segment is mature, key components have not
previously been integrated. In addition, the program office has
identified the Advanced Baseline Imager and the Geostationary Lightning
Mapper instruments as having a high level of risk associated with cost
due in part to the technical challenges posed by each instrument.
Program officials reported that they have sufficient management
reserves to address these risks.
To manage such risks, NOAA uses earned value management[Footnote 5], a
proven means for measuring progress against cost and schedule
commitments and thereby identifying potential cost overruns and
schedule delays early, when the impact can be minimized. Two key
aspects of this process are (1) conducting comprehensive integrated
baseline reviews to obtain agreement from stakeholders on the value of
planned work and validate the baseline against which variances are
calculated and (2) using monthly variance reports to provide
information on the current contract status, the reasons for any
deviations from cost or schedule plans, and any actions taken to
address these deviations.
To its credit, the GOES-R program office is using earned value
management to oversee the key instrument contracts and plans to use it
on the spacecraft and ground segment contracts. To date, the program
office has performed integrated baseline reviews on the instruments and
obtains and reviews variance reports for each of the instruments.
However, the program's integrated baseline review for the Advanced
Baseline Imager did not include a review of schedule milestones, the
adequacy of how tasks are measured, and the contractor's management
processes. Further, the variance reports for two instruments--the
Advanced Baseline Imager and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper--do not
describe all of the significant variances. Program officials explained
that they meet with the contractor on a monthly basis to discuss all of
the variances, but they were unable to provide documentation of these
discussions or the reasons for, impact of, or mitigation plans for the
variances. As a result of these shortfalls, the program office has less
assurance that key instruments will be delivered on time and within
budget, and it is more difficult for program managers to identify risks
and take corrective actions.
NOAA Has Not Developed Plans for Meeting Requirements for Advanced
Products:
Before it was canceled in September 2006, the Hyperspectral
Environmental Suite was originally planned as part of the GOES-R
satellite series to meet requirements for products that are currently
produced by GOES satellites as well as new technically-advanced
products not currently produced by GOES satellites. NOAA still
considers these requirements to be valid, and NOAA and the science
community still have a need for the advanced products.
NOAA had planned to use the new sounding products to improve its
performance goals, such as helping to increase the lead times
associated with severe thunderstorm warnings from an average of 18
minutes in 2000 to as much as 2 hours by 2025, and helping to increase
the lead times associated with tornado warnings from an average of 13
minutes in 2007 to as much as 1 hour by 2025.[Footnote 6] In addition,
NOAA had planned to use the new coastal waters imaging products to
provide more accurate and quantitative understanding of areas for which
NOAA has management responsibilities.[Footnote 7] In particular, the
coastal water imaging products could have been used to predict and
monitor the growth, spread, severity and duration of harmful algal
blooms. Recent studies suggest that harmful algal blooms are occurring
more frequently because of climate change.
NOAA, NASA, and the Department of Defense assessed alternatives for
obtaining advanced sounding and coastal water imaging products from a
geostationary orbit. The results of the analysis recommended that NOAA
work with NASA to develop a demonstration sounder to fly on an as-yet
undetermined satellite and to evaluate other options for coastal waters
imaging. NOAA plans to assess the technical feasibility of various
options and to have the National Research Council make recommendations
on long-term options for coastal water imaging.
However, NOAA has not defined plans or a timeline for addressing the
requirements for advanced products. Further, agency officials were
unable to estimate when they would establish plans to fulfill the
requirements. Until a decision is made on whether and how to provide
the advanced products, key system users will not be able to meet their
goals for improving the lead times or accuracy of severe weather
warnings, and climate research organizations will not obtain the data
they need to enhance the science of climate, coastal, environmental,
and oceanic observations.
Implementation of Recommendations Could Improve Management and
Oversight:
In our report, we are making three recommendations that, if
implemented, could improve the management and oversight of the GOES-R
acquisition. These are: ensuring that any rebaselining of a key
instrument includes an assessment of milestones, adequacy of resources,
task and technical planning, and management processes; ensuring that
reasons for cost and schedule variances are fully disclosed and
documented; and, if feasible, developing a plan and timeline for
restoring the advanced capabilities removed from the program.
In written comments on a draft of this report, the Department of
Commerce agreed with our findings and recommendations and outlined
steps it is taking to implement them. The department also provided
technical comments on the report, which we incorporated as appropriate.
In summary, NOAA has made repeated and continuing efforts to learn from
problems experienced on other satellite programs. The GOES-R satellite
series is now in development, but program costs have increased, the
scope of the program has been reduced, and schedules have been delayed.
Further, unless the program exercises contract options, key benefits in
terms of new products and faster data updates will not be realized. Of
particular concern are the three years of launch delays since 2006. In
addition, recent events make it likely that the launch of GOES-R will
continue to slip, which increases the risk of having gaps in satellite
coverage. Until NOAA and NASA act to address this risk, the United
States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather
forecasting is in jeopardy. In addition, NOAA has not yet developed a
plan or a timeline for recovering the advanced capabilities that were
removed. Until such decisions and plans are made, the geostationary
user community may not be able to make significant improvements in
their severe weather forecasts, or their ability to monitor our coastal
environments.
Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee, this concludes our
statement. We would be pleased to respond to any questions that you or
other members of the Subcommittee may have at this time.
Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:
If you have any questions on matters discussed in this testimony,
please contact David A. Powner at (202) 512-9286 or by e-mail at
pownerd@gao.gov. Other key contributors to this testimony include
Colleen M. Phillips, Assistant Director; Carol Cha; William Carrigg;
Neil Doherty; Franklin Jackson; Kaelin Kuhn; Lee McCracken; and Eric
Winter.
[End of section]
Footnotes:
[1] GAO, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites:
Acquisition is Under Way, but Improvements Needed in Management and
Oversight, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-323]
(Washington, D.C.: April 2, 2009).
[2] Satellites in a series are identified by letters of the alphabet
when they are on the ground and by numbers once they are in orbit.
[3] GAO, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: Additional
Action Needed to Incorporate Lessons Learned from Other Satellite
Programs, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-1129T]
(Washington, D.C.: Sept. 29, 2006) and Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellites: Steps Remain in Incorporating Lessons Learned
from Other Satellite Programs, [hyperlink,
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-993] (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 6,
2006).
[4] A sixth instrument, the Magnetometer, is to be developed as part of
the space segment contract.
[5] Earned value management is a project management approach that, if
implemented appropriately, provides objective reports of project
status, produces early warning signs of impending schedule delays and
cost overruns, and provides unbiased estimates of a program's total
costs.
[6] In addition to advanced sounding, other activities such as
improvements in radar technologies are expected to help improve lead
times.
[7] While current and future satellite systems provide selected coastal
waters images, they lack the resolution, sampling frequency, and
spectral information (field of vision) needed to monitor coastal areas
and estuaries.
[End of section]
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