The Changing Workforce

A highly publicized 1987 report entitled Workforce 2000: Work and Workers for the 21st Century issued dire warnings for the nation's employers in the next century, highlighting tight labor markets, mismatches between job requirements and workers' skills, and dramatic demographic changes. A companion report made similar predictions for the federal government. In examining the reports' implications for federal policymakers and workforce planners, GAO found that labor economists and other experts disagree that labor shortages and skill gaps are likely by the year 2000. Experts generally agree, however, that the demographic composition of the labor force has changed and will continue to do so in the future. While many of these workforce changes and conditions seem to be more prevalent in the federal workforce, federal workforce planners should not assume that labor shortages and skill gaps are a given. GAO believes that changes in the number of women, minorities, and older workers in the federal government can be addressed through a variety of human resources programs, such as child care, flexible work schedules, and diversity training.

GAO found that: (1) Department of Labor economists and other experts do not agree with the reports' conclusion that labor shortages and skill gaps are likely to occur by 2000; (2) experts agree that the demographic composition of the labor force has changed and will continue to change; (3) OPM and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data indicate that many demographic work-force changes and conditions are more prevalent in the federal work force than in the private sector; (4) changes in the number of women, minorities, and older workers in the federal government could be addressed through a variety of human resource policies and programs, including child care, flexible work schedules, diversity training, and reemployment incentives; (5) failure to respond to changing demographic conditions could make the federal government more uncompetitive, since nonfederal employers are increasingly offering such programs; and (6) demographic differences within the federal work force indicate that different policies and programs may be needed in different agencies and regions.