2010 Census
Design Shows Progress, but Managing Technology Acquisitions, Temporary Field Staff, and Gulf Region Enumeration Require Attention Gao ID: GAO-07-779T April 24, 2007The decennial census is a Constitutionally-mandated activity that produces data used to apportion congressional seats, redraw congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal assistance. The Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates the 2010 Census will cost $11.3 billion, making it the most expensive in the nation's history. This testimony discusses the Bureau's progress in preparing for the 2010 Census to (1) implement operations to increase the response rate and control costs; (2) use technology to increase productivity; (3) hire and train temporary staff; and (4) plan an accurate census in areas affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The testimony is based on previously issued GAO reports and work nearing completion in which GAO observed recruiting, hiring, and training practices in the 2006 test, and visited localities that participated in the Local Update of Addresses Dress Rehearsal as well in the Gulf Coast region.
The Bureau has made progress towards implementing a re-engineered census design that holds promise for increasing the response rate, thereby controlling the cost of the census while promoting accurate results. The re-engineered design includes a short form only census designed to increase the response rate by about 1 percent and a targeted second mailing, which is expected to increase response by between 7 to 10 percent. Both of these initiatives are new, have been tested, and will be a part of the 2010 Census design. According to Bureau officials, a 1 percent increase in the response rate can save $75 million, making these initiatives critical to the new design. Uncertainty surrounds a keystone to the reengineered census, the mobile computing device (MCD). The MCD allows the Bureau to automate operations and eliminate the need to print millions of paper questionnaires and maps used by census workers to conduct census operations and to assist in managing payroll. The MCD, tested in the 2004 and 2006 census tests, was found to be unreliable. While a contractor has developed a new version of the MCD, the device will not be field tested until next month, leaving little time to correct problems that might emerge during the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. The Bureau faces challenges in recruiting, hiring, and training an estimated 600,000 temporary employees. For example, opportunities exist for the Bureau to hone its recruiting efforts to identify individuals who would be more likely to be effective at census work and willing to work throughout an operation. Also, census workers indicated a need for additional training on reluctant respondents as well as location-specific challenges they encounter. The Bureau must also be prepared to accurately count the population affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The Bureau has contacted local officials in the Gulf Area and is developing a plan that includes workshops and special staffing considerations.
GAO-07-779T, 2010 Census: Design Shows Progress, but Managing Technology Acquisitions, Temporary Field Staff, and Gulf Region Enumeration Require Attention
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Testimony:
Before the Subcommittee on Information Policy, Census, and National
Archives, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, House of
Representatives:
United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:
For Release on Delivery Expected at 2:00 p.m. EDT:
Tuesday, April 24, 2007:
2010 Census:
Design Shows Progress, but Managing Technology Acquisitions, Temporary
Field Staff, and Gulf Region Enumeration Require Attention:
Statement of Mathew J. Scirč:
Director, Strategic Issues:
GAO-07-779T:
GAO Highlights:
Highlights of GAO-07-779T, testimony before the Subcommittee on
Information Policy, Census, and National Archives, Committee on
Oversight and Government Reform, House of Representatives
Why GAO Did This Study:
The decennial census is a Constitutionally-mandated activity that
produces data used to apportion congressional seats, redraw
congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars in federal
assistance. The Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates the 2010 Census will
cost $11.3 billion, making it the most expensive in the nation‘s
history. This testimony discusses the Bureau's progress in preparing
for the 2010 Census to (1) implement operations to increase the
response rate and control costs; (2) use technology to increase
productivity; (3) hire and train temporary staff; and (4) plan an
accurate census in areas affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
The testimony is based on previously issued GAO reports and work
nearing completion in which GAO observed recruiting, hiring, and
training practices in the 2006 test, and visited localities that
participated in the Local Update of Addresses Dress Rehearsal as well
in the Gulf Coast region.
What GAO Found:
The Bureau has made progress towards implementing a re-engineered
census design that holds promise for increasing the response rate,
thereby controlling the cost of the census while promoting accurate
results. The re-engineered design includes a short form only census
designed to increase the response rate by about 1 percent and a
targeted second mailing, which is expected to increase response by
between 7 to 10 percent. Both of these initiatives are new, have been
tested, and will be a part of the 2010 Census design. According to
Bureau officials, a 1 percent increase in the response rate can save
$75 million, making these initiatives critical to the new design.
Uncertainty surrounds a keystone to the reengineered census, the mobile
computing device (MCD). The MCD allows the Bureau to automate
operations and eliminate the need to print millions of paper
questionnaires and maps used by census workers to conduct census
operations and to assist in managing payroll. The MCD, tested in the
2004 and 2006 census tests, was found to be unreliable. While a
contractor has developed a new version of the MCD, the device will not
be field tested until next month, leaving little time to correct
problems that might emerge during the 2008 Dress Rehearsal.
Table: Timeline of Selected Key Decennial Events:
Beginning and End Dates: Jan. 2007-Jan. 2010;
Decennial activity: Local Update of Census Addresses (localities assist
in updating address lists and maps).
Beginning and End Dates: Feb. 2006-June 2009;
Decennial activity: 2008 Dress Rehearsal (Bureau's rehearsal of all
planned decennial operations).
Beginning and End Dates: Jan. 2008;
Decennial activity: Opening of 12 Regional Census Centers.
Beginning and End Dates: Oct. 2008;
Decennial activity: Opening of 455 Local Census Offices.
Beginning and End Dates: Apr.-Sept. 2009;
Decennial activity: Address Listing Activities (Bureau field staff
validate address lists and maps).
Beginning and End Dates: Apr. 1, 2010;
Decennial activity: Census Day.
Beginning and End Dates: Apr.-July 2010;
Decennial activity: Nonresponse Follow-up (Field staff follow-up in
person at housing units of nonresponding persons).
Beginning and End Dates: Dec. 31, 2010;
Decennial activity: Delivery of apportionment counts to the President.
Beginning and End Dates: Mar. 31, 2011;
Decennial activity: Complete delivery of redistricting data to states.
Source: GAO summary of Census Bureau data.
[End of table]
The Bureau faces challenges in recruiting, hiring, and training an
estimated 600,000 temporary employees. For example, opportunities exist
for the Bureau to hone its recruiting efforts to identify individuals
who would be more likely to be effective at census work and willing to
work throughout an operation. Also, census workers indicated a need for
additional training on reluctant respondents as well as location-
specific challenges they encounter. The Bureau must also be prepared to
accurately count the population affected by hurricanes Katrina and
Rita. The Bureau has contacted local officials in the Gulf Area and is
developing a plan that includes workshops and special staffing
considerations.
What GAO Recommends:
At this time, GAO is not making new recommendations, but past reports
recommended steps for the Bureau to enhance the mobile computing
devices and promote an accurate census in areas impacted by hurricanes
Katrina and Rita. The Bureau generally agreed with these
recommendations and has acted to implement some of them.
[Hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-779T].
To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on
the link above. For more information, contact Mathew J. Scire at (202)
512-6806 or sciremj@gao.gov.
[End of section]
Mr. Chairman, Mr. Turner, Members of the Subcommittee:
Thank you for the opportunity to be here today to discuss the status of
the Census Bureau's (Bureau) progress in preparing for the 2010 Census.
Based on issued and ongoing work, my testimony today addresses the
Bureau's efforts to prepare for the next decennial by (1) implementing
operations designed to improve the completeness and accuracy of the
census as well as to increase response rate and hence control costs,
(2) using automation and technology to increase productivity, (3)
recruiting, hiring, and training peak temporary staff of about 600,000
in 2010 in a challenging environment, and (4) planning how to ensure an
accurate population count in areas affected by hurricanes Katrina and
Rita.
As you know, Mr. Chairman, the census is a critical national effort
mandated by the Constitution. Census data are used to apportion seats
in the Congress, redraw congressional districts, allocate billions of
dollars in federal assistance to state and local governments, and for
numerous other public and private sector purposes. In addition, the
census is a complicated undertaking and substantial investment,
requiring careful planning, risk management, and oversight to ensure
its ultimate success. The Bureau estimates the 2010 Census will cost
$11.3 billion over its life-cycle, making it the most expensive census
in our country's history, even after adjusting for inflation. Since the
2000 Census, we have been examining how the Bureau is preparing for the
2010 Census, including incorporating lessons learned from the 2000
Census into its planning for the 2010 decennial. Given the importance
of a successful enumeration, for the last 3 decennials, we have
supported an approach to oversight that is timely, rigorous,
constructive, and holds the Bureau accountable for results.
Today's hearing is particularly timely. The Bureau is now conducting
the 2008 Dress Rehearsal's Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA)
program, where local, state, and tribal governments are given the
opportunity to review and suggest changes to Census Bureau address
lists and maps. Beginning in early May 2007, the Bureau will deploy the
hand-held mobile computing devices (MCDs)--a keystone to the
reengineered Census--to verify address data as part of the address
canvassing portion of the Dress Rehearsal. We plan to be on-hand to
observe the functionality and usability of the MCDs at the dress
rehearsal sites in North Carolina and California where the Bureau will
conduct a dry run of the full enumeration planned for 2010. "Census
Day" for this exercise is April 1, 2008.
As we have testified in the past, the Bureau's ongoing reengineering of
the decennial census--including changes in the survey design and
greater use of technology--could have important benefits in improved
efficiencies and cost-containment as well as the accuracy, quality, and
consistency of data collected. But these changes, as well as
intervening events, raise new risks that bear watching. Also, given the
sheer size of census operations, refinements to recruiting, hiring, and
training can have substantial results.
In summary, our recent work on the reengineering of and preparations
for the 2010 decennial have yielded a number of observations about
actions the Bureau has taken to promote an accurate and cost-effective
census.
* The Bureau has taken steps to increase response rates through such
measures as moving to a short form, and utilizing a second mailing.
* The MCD version being deployed during the upcoming dress rehearsal
will be used for the first time in the field--this is the prototype
under contract for the 2010 Census--and if it does not function as
expected or needed, little time will be left for the Bureau to take
corrective action. Overall, the Bureau's greater reliance on contractor-
developed automation and technology for the 2010 Census call for
greater focus on sound acquisition and management of these key
investments.
* The Bureau's efforts to recruit, hire, and train a sufficient
workforce to enumerate an increasingly hard-to-find and reluctant
population in a more technology-dependent census presents a unique
challenge for the Bureau to refine its recruiting practices and enhance
its training.
* The intervention of hurricanes Katrina and Rita have placed
additional demands on the Bureau to prepare for enumerating a large
population displaced by these devastating storms, in an environment in
which local governments' capacities are constrained and physical
infrastructure and services have not yet returned to normal.
Given these complexities, our message remains that the risks associated
with the decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and managed,
with mitigation plans in place where appropriate, to help ensure that
accurate results are delivered on time and within projected costs.
My remarks today are based primarily on reports that we have issued
from 2002 through July 2006 on the planning and development of the 2010
Census, as well as the results of work nearing completion. (Please see
app. I for a list of relevant reports.) For the 2004 field test, we
visited Queens, New York, and several counties in rural south-central
Georgia. We visited the Texas and South Dakota test sites during the
2006 field test. During these visits we observed such operations as the
address canvassing operation--where workers go door to door verifying
addresses and updating maps as part of the Bureau's effort to build a
complete and accurate address list, and we observed the non-response
follow-up operation (NRFU)--where enumerators collect information from
those households that do not return their initial questionnaire. We
also observed key recruiting, hiring, and training activities during
the 2006 test completed last summer. During the autumn of 2006, we
observed preparations for and the conduct of the Local Update of Census
Addresses (LUCA) phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal in sites located in
North Carolina and California, and in January 2007 we visited areas in
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas affected by hurricanes Katrina and
Rita. We conducted our work in accordance with generally accepted
government auditing standards.
Background:
The decennial census is the nation's largest, most complex survey. In
April 2009, address canvassing--a field operation for verifying and
correcting addresses for all households and street features contained
on decennial maps--will begin. One year later, the Bureau will mail
census questionnaires to the majority of the population in anticipation
of Census Day, April 1, 2010. Those households who do not respond will
be contacted by field staff through the NRFU operation to determine the
number of people living in the house on Census Day, among other
information. In addition to address canvassing and NRFU, the Bureau
conducts other operations, for example, to gather data from residents
from group quarters, such as prisons or college dormitories. The Bureau
also employs different enumeration methods in certain settings, such as
remote Alaska enumeration, in which people living in inaccessible
communities must be contacted in January 2010 in anticipation of the
spring thaw which makes travel difficult, or update/enumerate, a data
collection method involving personal interviews, used in communities
where many housing units may not have typical house number-street name
mailing addresses. Further, the efforts of state and local government
are enlisted to obtain a more complete address file through the LUCA
program.
The census is also conducted against a backdrop of immutable deadlines,
and the census's elaborate chain of interrelated pre-and post-Census
Day activities is predicated upon those dates. The Secretary of
Commerce is legally required to (1) conduct the census on April 1 of
the decennial year, (2) report the state population counts to the
President for purposes of congressional apportionment by December 31 of
the decennial year, and (3) send population tabulations to the states
for purposes of redistricting no later than 1 year after the April 1
census date. To meet these mandated reporting requirements, census
activities must occur at specific times and in the proper sequence. The
table below shows some dates for selected, key decennial activities.
Table 1: Timeline of Selected Key Decennial Events:
Beginning and End Dates: Jan. 2007-Jan. 2010;
Decennial activity: Local Update of Census Addresses (localities assist
in updating address lists and maps).
Beginning and End Dates: Feb. 2006-June 2009;
Decennial activity: 2008 Dress Rehearsal (Bureau's rehearsal of all
planned decennial operations).
Beginning and End Dates: Jan. 2008;
Decennial activity: Opening of 12 Regional Census Centers.
Beginning and End Dates: Oct. 2008;
Decennial activity: Opening of 455 Local Census Offices.
Beginning and End Dates: Apr.-Sept. 2009;
Decennial activity: Address Listing Activities (Bureau field staff
validate address lists and maps).
Beginning and End Dates: Apr. 1, 2010;
Decennial activity: Census Day.
Beginning and End Dates: Apr.-July 2010;
Decennial activity: Nonresponse Follow-up (Field staff follow-up in
person at housing units of nonresponding persons).
Beginning and End Dates: Dec. 31, 2010;
Decennial activity: Delivery of apportionment counts to the President.
Beginning and End Dates: Mar. 31, 2011;
Decennial activity: Complete delivery of redistricting data to states.
Source: GAO summary of Census Bureau data.
[End of table]
The Bureau estimates that the 2010 Census will cost $11.3 billion over
its life-cycle, making it the most expensive in the nation's history.
While some cost growth is expected, partly because the number of
housing units has increased, the estimated cost escalation has far
exceeded the housing unit increase. The Bureau estimates that the
number of housing units for the 2010 Census will increase by 10 percent
over 2000 Census levels, but the average 2010 cost to enumerate a
housing unit is expected to increase by about 29 percent from 2000
levels (from $56 to $72) (see fig. 1). As the Bureau plans for 2010,
maintaining cost effectiveness will be one of the single greatest
challenges confronting the agency.
Figure 1: Decennial Census Average Cost per Housing Unit (in Constant
Fiscal Year 2000 Dollars):
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau figures.
[End of figure]
According to the Bureau, the increasing cost of the census is caused by
various societal trends--such as increasing privacy concerns, more non-
English speakers, and people residing in makeshift and other
nontraditional living arrangements--making it harder to find people and
get them to participate in the census.
The Bureau Has Taken Steps to Increase Response Rates:
The Bureau has reengineered the decennial census, including
implementing new initiatives aimed at increasing the response rate.
Furthermore, the Bureau also plans to begin to implement its outreach
and communications campaign, an effort used in the 2000 Census that was
designed to increase awareness and encourage individuals to respond to
the census questionnaire. Increasing the decennial's response rate can
result in significant savings because the Bureau can reduce the
staffing and costs related to NRFU, as well as yield more complete and
accurate data. According to the Bureau, for every one-percentage point
increase in the response rate, the Bureau will be able to save $75
million.
The Bureau plans to increase response rate by several means, including
conducting a short-form-only census. The Bureau is able to do this
because in 1996 the Bureau began efforts to replace the decennial long
form with the American Community Survey. Since 1970, the overall mail
response rate to the decennial census has been declining steadily, in
part, because of the burden of responding to the long form, which was
sent to a sample of respondents. In the 1980 Census, the overall mail
response rate was 75 percent, 3 percentage points lower than it was in
the 1970 Census. In the 1990 census, the mail response rate dropped to
65 percent but in 2000 appeared to be leveling off at about 64 percent.
In the 2000 Census when comparing the short form to the long form the
Bureau found the short form response rate of 66.4 percent was 12.5
percentage points higher that the long form response rate of 53.9
percent. While the difference between the long and short form response
rates are significant, the Bureau in its initial assumption for the
2010 Census predicted that conducting a short-form-only census will
yield only a 1-percent increase in the overall mail response rate.
A targeted second mailing to households that fail to respond to the
initial census questionnaire can increase the ultimate response rate.
According to Bureau studies, sending a second questionnaire could yield
a gain in overall response of 7 to 10 percentage points from non-
responding households, thus potentially saving the Bureau between $525
million to $700 million dollars (given that every 1 percentage point
increase in response may save $75 million). In reports, we have
highlighted that a targeted second mailing could boost the mail
response rate, which in turn would result in considerable savings by
reducing the number of costly personal visits enumerators would need to
make to nonresponding households.[Footnote 1] The Bureau has never
before included this operation as part of a decennial census and over
the decade has been testing its feasibility. A targeted second mailing
was a part of 2006 test and boosted the response rate by 8.8 percent at
the Austin, Texas test site. According to Bureau officials targeted
second mailing will be a part of the 2010 Census design.
For the 2010 Census the Bureau also intends to increase response rates
by undertaking a public awareness campaign as it did in the previous
census. In the 2000 Census that effort was comprised of two major
activities:
* conducting the first-ever paid advertising campaign aimed at
increasing the mail response rate, including the historically
undercounted populations, and:
* leveraging the value of local knowledge by building 140,000
partnerships at every level including state, local , and tribal
governments; community-based organizations; and the media and private-
sector organizations to elicit public participation in the census.
In 2001 we reported that for the 2000 Census, it appeared that
encouraging people to respond to the census questionnaire was
successful, in part due to the Bureau's partnership efforts.[Footnote
2] For example, according to the Bureau, it achieved an initial mail
response rate of about 64 percent, 3 percentage points higher that it
had anticipated when planning for NRFU. This was a noteworthy
accomplishment and, as a result, the Bureau had over 3 million fewer
housing units to follow-up with than it had initially planned.
The Bureau will soon begin its outreach and communication effort for
2010. The Bureau plans to award the communications contract in August
2007 and will begin hiring partnership specialists at headquarters
starting in fiscal year 2008.
The Bureau's Plans for Greater Use of Automation and Technology Demand
Greater Risk Management:
The MCD is a keystone to the reengineered census. It allows the Bureau
to automate operations and eliminate the need to print millions of
paper questionnaires and maps used by census workers to conduct address
canvassing and NRFU, as well as assisting to manage field staff's
payroll. The benefits of using the MCD were tested in the 2004 and 2006
tests. According to the Bureau, during the 2004 Census Test, the MCD
allowed the Bureau to successfully remove over 7,000 late mail returns
from enumerators' assignments, reducing the total NRFU workload by
nearly 6 percent. The ability to remove late mail returns from the
Bureau's NRFU workload reduces costs, because census field workers no
longer need to make expensive follow-up visits to households that
return their questionnaire after the mail-back deadline. If the Bureau
had possessed this capability during the 2000 Census, it could have
eliminated the need to visit nearly 773,000 late-responding households
and saved an estimated $22 million (based on our estimate that a 1-
percentage-point increase in workload could add at least $34 million in
direct salary, benefits, and travel costs to the price tag of
NRFU[Footnote 3]).
However, the Bureau's ability to collect and transmit data using the
MCD is not fully tested and, at this point, constitutes a risk to the
cost-effective implementation of the 2010 Census. During the 2004 test
of NRFU and the 2006 test of address canvassing, the MCDs experienced
significant reliability problems. For example, during the 2004 Census
Test, the MCDs experienced transmission problems, memory overloads, and
difficulties with a mapping feature--all of which added inefficiencies
to the NRFU operation.[Footnote 4] Moreover, during the 2006 test, the
MCD's global positioning system (GPS) receiver, a satellite-based
navigational system to help workers locate street addresses and collect
coordinates for each structure in their assignment area, was also
unreliable.
Bureau officials believe the MCD's performance problems will be
addressed through a contract awarded on March 30, 2006, to develop a
new MCD. A prototype of the MCD has been developed and delivered by the
contractor for use in the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. However, operational
testing of the MCD will not occur until May 2007, when address
canvassing for the 2008 Dress Rehearsal occurs, and if problems do
emerge, little time will be left to develop, test, and incorporate
refinements. In our May 2006 report, we highlighted the tight time
frames to develop the MCD and recommended that systems being developed
or provided by contractors for the 2010 Census--including the MCD--be
fully functional and ready to be assessed as part of the 2008 Dress
Rehearsal. We are currently reviewing the cost, schedule and
performance status of the contract for the MCDs.
We plan to visit the dress rehearsal sites to determine the
functionality of the devices to collect and transmit data. If after the
2008 Dress Rehearsal the MCD is found not to be reliable, the Bureau
could be faced with the daunting possibility of having to revert to the
costly, paper-based census used in 2000.
Although the greater use of automation offers the prospect of greater
efficiency and effectiveness, these actions also introduce new risks.
The automation of key census processes involves an extensive reliance
on contractors. Consequently, contract oversight and management becomes
a key challenge to a successful census. As part of the Bureau's plans
to increase the use of automation and technology for the 2010 Census,
the Bureau estimates that it will spend about $ 3 billion on
information technology (IT) investments. The Bureau will be undertaking
several major acquisitions, including the Decennial Response
Integration System (DRIS)--a system for integrating paper and telephone
responses; the Field Data Collection Automation (FDCA) program--the
systems and support equipment for field office data collection
activities including the MCDs to be used by enumerators; the Data
Access and Dissemination System (DADS II)--a system for tabulating and
disseminating data from the decennial census and other Bureau surveys
to the public; and the modernization of the Master Address File/
Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing (MAF/
TIGER) system, which provides the address list, maps, and other
geographic support services for the decennial and other Bureau surveys,
known as the MAF/TIGER Accuracy Improvement Project (MTAIP). Together
these and other systems are to support collection, processing, and
dissemination of census data.
In March 2006, we testified on the Bureau's acquisition and management
of two key information technology system acquisitions for the 2010
Census--FDCA and the DRIS.[Footnote 5] We reported on the Bureau's
progress in implementing acquisitions and management capabilities for
these initiatives. To effectively manage major IT programs,
organizations should use sound acquisition and management processes to
minimize risk and thereby maximize chances for success. Such processes
include project and acquisition planning, solicitation, requirement
development and management, and risk management. We reported that while
the project offices responsible for these two contracts have carried
out initial acquisition management activities, neither office had the
full set of capabilities they needed to effectively manage the
acquisitions, including implementing a full risk management process. We
also made recommendations for the Bureau to implement key activities
needed to effectively manage acquisitions. For example, we recommended
that the Bureau's project office for DRIS complete a project plan and
obtain stakeholder concurrence before initiating additional development
work and obtain validation, management, and customer approval of DRIS
requirements. In response to our recommendation, the Bureau has
finalized the project plan for DRIS and has obtained stakeholders'
commitment. As a result, the DRIS project office will have the
direction that it needs to successfully avoid unanticipated changes.
We are reviewing the cost, schedule, and performance status for DRIS,
FDCA, MTAIP, and DADS II to determine whether the Bureau is adequately
managing risks associated with these key systems. Effective risk
management includes identifying and analyzing risks, assigning
resources, developing risk mitigation plans and milestones for key
mitigation deliverables, briefing senior-level managers on high-
priority risks, and tracking risks to closure and is an important
project management discipline to ensure that key technologies are
delivered on time, within budget, and with the promised functionality.
This discipline is essentially important given the immovable decennial
census deadline. We are scheduled to complete our work on that
engagement by September 2007.
The Bureau Can Improve Its Recruiting, Hiring, and Training Efforts:
Prior to Census Day, Bureau field staff perform the address canvassing
operation, during which they verify the addresses of all housing units.
The Bureau estimates spending $350 million to hire about 74,000 field
workers for the address canvassing operation. About 1 year later, the
Bureau mails out questionnaires to about 130 million households
nationwide. However, the Bureau expects that about 40 million
households will not return the questionnaire. To collect information
from those households, the Bureau hires temporary field staff--based
out of local census offices--to visit each nonresponding household in
its NRFU operation. The Bureau expects to spend over $2 billion to
employ about 525,000 temporary field staff for that activity. As shown
in fig. 2, in total the Bureau will recruit and test 3.8 million
applicants for addressing canvassing and NRFU, hiring some 600,000
people for the 2010 Census.
Figure 2: The Bureau's Recruiting and Hiring Timeline for Temporary
Field Staff During the 2010 Census:
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO and U.S. Census Bureau.
[End of figure]
The Bureau Can Refine Its Approach to Recruiting and Hiring Temporary
Field Staff:
For the 2010 Census, the Bureau plans to use a similar approach to
recruit and hire workers as it used during Census 2000. These
strategies made the Bureau a more attractive employer to prospective
candidates and helped provide a steady stream of applicants during
Census 2000. Despite a tight labor market, the Bureau attracted about
3.7 million qualified applicants and hired about half a million
enumerators at peak. Some of the broad approaches from 2000 that the
Bureau plans on implementing for the 2010 census include:
* recruiting five times more applicants than the needed number of field
workers to ensure a considerable depth in the applicant pool from which
to hire;
* "frontloading" or hiring twice the number of people needed to do the
work in anticipation of high levels of turnover;
* exercising the flexibility to raise pay rates for local census
offices that were encountering recruiting difficulties; and:
* launching a recruitment advertising campaign, which totaled over $2.3
million for Census 2000.
As in 2000, the Bureau faces the daunting tasks of meeting its
recruiting and hiring goals. However, it also faces additional
challenges, such as demographic shifts whereby the population is
increasingly diverse and difficult to locate, and newer challenges,
like the Bureau's use of handheld computers for data collection in the
field. It does plan some improvements to how it recruits and hires its
temporary workforce to carry out the 2010 Census. For example, the
Bureau has conducted and incorporated information collected from
employee debriefings that could improve its recruiting and hiring
processes. Bureau officials believe this feedback would be helpful in
evaluating and refining its hiring and recruiting processes and intend
to incorporate some of that information for the 2008 Dress Rehearsal.
However, it can do more to target its recruitment of field staff.
The Bureau casts a wide net to recruit its temporary workforce to
ensure it has a large enough applicant pool from which to hire. In
commenting on a draft of this work, Commerce noted that the Bureau's
priority is to reach out as broadly a possible to the diverse
communities in the county to attract several million applicants. We
recognize that when recruiting and hiring for hundreds of thousands of
positions, the Bureau faces a challenge in assessing applicants'
potential success or willingness to work. However, opportunities exist
for the Bureau to hone its recruiting efforts to identify individuals
who would be more likely to be effective at census work and willing to
continue working throughout an operation. Along those same lines, the
Bureau could also evaluate the factors associated with an applicant's
success, willingness to work in an operation, and likelihood of
attrition to refine its hiring. Despite Commerce's reservations about
refining its current recruiting and hiring strategies, we believe that
the Bureau could do more to understand what makes for a successful
recruit and, by hiring such applicants, reduce operating costs.
Another recruiting and hiring issue we identified in our completed work
is related to how the crew leaders are selected. We found that the
Bureau's tools for hiring crew leaders could better distinguish the
skills needed for those positions. Crew leaders fill an important role
in the Bureau's field activities because they supervise the work of
crews of field workers; train field workers; and will be counted on to
troubleshoot the MCDs. We found that despite the different skill
requirements of crew leaders and other field staff--for example, while
it was important for field staff working in the NRFU operation to have
arithmetic and visual identification skills, crew leaders need those
skills as well as additional skills, such as management, leadership,
and creative thinking--the Bureau used the same set of hiring tools to
hire individuals for crew leaders and other field positions during the
2006 Census Test. In its review of the 2004 Census Test, the Department
of Commerce Office of Inspector General OIG also reported that Bureau
officials said that the applicants' the multiple-choice test does not
capture the technical or supervisory skills needed by crew
leaders.[Footnote 6]
The Bureau hired a contractor to assess whether the tools used during
the 2006 Census Test selected individuals with the skills necessary to
conduct field work using MCDs;[Footnote 7] however, the Bureau has no
current plans to make changes to its hiring process that would include
differentiated hiring tools for crew leaders and other positions.
Without hiring tools that distinguish between skills needed for the
crew leader and other positions, the Bureau does not have assurances
that it is selecting crew leaders that can best perform important
duties like providing training, managing other field staff, and
troubleshooting handheld computers. In commenting on our draft,
Commerce indicated that the Bureau needs to evaluate its hiring tools.
It is also working to identify and test what the appropriate skills are
for the crew leader position.
Finally, we found that the Bureau does not collect performance data
needed to rehire former workers from prior or ongoing operations to
whom it may give hiring priority. Officials say they try to exclude
those terminated for cause (such terminations can result when workers
have performance or conduct problems such as selling drugs or striking
another worker). Bureau officials point to its internal systems, which,
they say preclude the rehiring of employees who were terminated for
cause. However, the OIG and field officials told us that poor
performers may not always be terminated. Without better information on
employee performance, the Bureau cannot ensure that the weakest
performers are not rehired. Over the course of the 2006 Census Test,
almost 15 percent of all field staff were rehired. If this percentage
were to be rehired during the 2010 Census, the Bureau would not have
performance data to meaningfully evaluate whether to rehire
approximately 90,000 individuals. The Bureau believes that the pace of
the decennial, particularly NRFU, is such that local census officials
would not have enough time to consider past performance when making
hiring decisions. However, we believe that the Bureau has enough time.
For example, performance data could be collected during address
canvassing to be used to assess workers for NRFU, nearly one-year
later.
Opportunities Exist for the Bureau to Improve Training for Field Staff:
The Bureau has employed essentially the same approach to training since
the 1970 Census. To conduct training, the Bureau solicits free or low-
cost training spaces from local organizations, such as churches or
libraries. Training classes typically include 15 to 20 students. Crew
leaders usually train their crews, with the assistance of at least one
crew leader assistant, using a verbatim training approach, whereby crew
leaders read training scripts word-for-word over the course of several
days. Similarly, the crew leaders were themselves trained by their
supervisors in a "train-the-trainers" approach. The length of training
varies by operation; for NRFU, training took almost 42 hours over the
course of 6 days during the 2006 test.
The Bureau and others, including us, have reported that the Bureau
should consider alternate approaches to training delivery. Our review
of the 2004 Census Test found that, as a result of the demographic and
technological changes that have taken place since 1970, the Bureau
might want to explore alternatives to its verbatim approach to
training.[Footnote 8] Moreover, in 2004, the OIG suggested the Bureau
explore the use of interactive training methods, as the Bureau does for
other non-decennial surveys.[Footnote 9] For example, while many field
staff we contacted during the 2006 test said their overall impression
of training was generally positive, many added that videos or visuals
would or might improve training. In addition, while the Bureau is
providing some computer-based training on using the handheld computers
in key operations, overall the Bureau has made limited changes to the
approach it uses to deliver training and has not evaluated alternative
approaches to providing training. It is notable that observations
during the 2004 and 2006 tests showed that field staff may have missed
important parts of training. Contractor employees saw students playing
games on their MCDs during training for the 2006 test,[Footnote 10] and
in 2004 the OIG saw students not paying attention and falling asleep in
class, concluding that some may not have learned how to conduct census
operations.[Footnote 11]
The content of the Bureau's training for field staff also has not
changed substantially since Census 2000, despite the fact that,
according to the Bureau itself, collecting data from the nation's
population has become increasingly difficult. Field workers we spoke to
during the 2006 test noted two related issues on which they had not
received sufficient training--dealing with reluctant respondents and
handling location-specific challenges.
According to the Department of Commerce OIG, in 2004 field staff
complained that they felt unprepared to deal with reluctant
respondents; the OIG report recommended the Bureau consider adding
content to enhance training on this topic.[Footnote 12] Moreover, our
review of the Bureau's summaries of debriefings it conducted after the
2006 test indicated that field staff found respondent reluctance to be
a challenge.[Footnote 13] Crew leaders noted that this was the most
difficult task enumerators faced. In our field visits, we observed that
without adequate preparation in dealing with reluctant responders,
field staff developed their own strategies when confronted with these
situations, resulting in inconsistent and sometimes inappropriate data
collection methods. For example, when unable to contact respondents,
one Texas enumerator looked up respondent information online, tried to
find a phone number for another respondent from a neighborhood cat's
collar, and illegally went through residents' mail.
Field staff may also need more training in overcoming location-specific
challenges, such as rural conditions on the Cheyenne River Indian
Reservation in South Dakota; and counting the transient student
population in Austin, Texas. For example, in Austin, one crew leader
explained that training spent a lot of time on mobile homes--which did
not exist in his area--but very little time on apartment buildings,
which are common there. Based on our observations of the 2004 test, we
suggested that the Bureau supplement the existing training with modules
geared toward addressing the particular enumeration challenges that
field staff are likely to encounter in specific locales.[Footnote 14]
During this review, the Bureau told us that it works with regional
offices to develop 10-minute training modules for specific locations.
For example, in 2000, Bureau officials said enumerators in Los Angeles
were trained to look for small, hidden housing units, such as
apartments in converted garages. Bureau officials said they provide
guidance on the length of the modules and when they should be
presented. However, they said they were not sure how often this kind of
specialized training took place, nor had they allocated time during
training to present specialized information.
We believe the Bureau could do more to assist local offices provide
training that recognizes local conditions. Specifically, based on work
we will be reporting shortly, we will recommend that the Bureau
centrally develop training modules covering enumeration strategies in a
variety of situations, such as mobile homes, large apartment buildings,
and migrant worker dwellings, which local officials can selectively
insert into their training if there is a need to train their field
staff on that topic. Such modules would enhance the effectiveness of
training by giving greater attention to the challenges field staff are
likely to face. In commenting on this recommendation, Commerce noted
that the Bureau works with managers in each regional census center to
customize a location-specific training module for local census offices.
Nonetheless, developing modules for different types of locations
centrally would allow the Bureau to control the consistency and quality
of training throughout the nation.
Bureau Is Designing Decennial Activities in the Geographic Area
Affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita:
As part of our evaluation of the Bureau's LUCA dress rehearsal, we
visited the localities along the Gulf Coast to assess the effect the
devastation caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita might have on LUCA
and possibly other operations. The effects of Hurricanes Katrina and
Rita are still visible throughout the Gulf Coast region. Hurricane
Katrina alone destroyed or made uninhabitable an estimated 300,000
homes; in New Orleans, local officials reported that Hurricane Katrina
damaged an estimated 123,000 housing units. Such changes in housing
unit stock continue to present challenges to the implementation of the
2010 LUCA Program in the Gulf Coast region and possibly other
operations. Many officials of local governments we visited in hurricane-
affected areas said they have identified numerous housing units that
have been or will be demolished as a result of hurricanes Katrina and
Rita and subsequent deterioration. Conversely, many local governments
estimate that there is new development of housing units in their
respective jurisdictions. The localities we interviewed in the Gulf
Coast region indicated that such changes in the housing stock of their
jurisdictions are unlikely to subside before local governments begin
reviewing and updating materials for the Bureau's 2010 LUCA Program--in
August 2007.[Footnote 15] Local government officials told us that
changes in housing unit stock are often caused by difficulties families
have in deciding whether to return to hurricane-affected areas. Local
officials informed us that a family's decision to return is affected by
various factors, such as the availability of insurance; timing of
funding from Louisiana's "Road Home" program;[Footnote 16] lack of
availability of contractors; school systems that are closed; and lack
of amenities such as grocery stores. As a result of the still changing
housing unit stock, local governments in hurricane-affected areas may
be unable to fully capture reliable information about their address
lists before the beginning of LUCA this year or address canvassing in
April 2009. Furthermore, operation of local governments themselves has
been affected by the hurricanes (see fig. 3). These local governments
are focused on reconstruction and at least two localities we spoke to
questioned their ability to participate in LUCA.
Figure 3: City Halls in Mississippi and Louisiana Have Been Destroyed
and City Officials Now Operate Out of Trailers:
[See PDF for image]
Source: GAO (January 2007).
Note: Pictures are from January 2007.
[End of figure]
The mixed condition of the housing stock in the Gulf Coast will
increase the Bureau's address canvassing workload. During our field
work, we found that hurricane-affected areas have many neighborhoods
with abandoned and vacant properties mixed in with occupied housing
units. Bureau staff conducting address canvassing in these areas may
have an increased workload due to the additional time necessary to
distinguish between abandoned, vacant and occupied housing units.
Another potential issue is that due to continuing changes in the
condition in the housing stock, housing units that are deemed vacant or
abandoned during address canvassing may be occupied on Census Day (Apr.
1, 2010). Bureau officials said that they recognize there are issues
with uninhabitable structures in hurricane-affected zones. They noted
that addresses marked as vacant or uninhabitable during address
canvassing in the Gulf Coast region will not be deleted from the MAF,
and said that they may adjust training for Bureau staff in hurricane-
affected areas.
Workforce shortages may also pose significant problems for the Bureau's
hiring efforts for address canvassing. The effects of hurricanes
Katrina and Rita caused a major shift in population away from the
hurricane-affected areas, especially in Louisiana. This migration
displaced many low-wage workers. Should this continue, it could affect
the availability of such workers for address canvassing and other
decennial census operations. Bureau officials recognize the potential
difficulty of attracting these workers, and have recommended that the
Bureau be prepared to meet hourly wage rates for future decennial staff
that are considerably higher than usual. It has noted that its Dallas
regional office, which has jurisdiction over hurricane-affected areas
in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, will examine local unemployment
rates to adjust pay rates in the region, and use "every single entity"
available to advertise for workers in the New Orleans area.
Early in 2006, we recommended that the Bureau develop plans (prior to
the start of the 2010 LUCA Program in August 2007) to assess whether
new procedures, additional resources, or local partnerships, may be
required to update the MAF/TIGER database along the Gulf Coast--in the
areas affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita.[Footnote 17] The Bureau
responded to our recommendations by chartering a team to assess the
effect of the storm damage on the Bureau's address list and maps for
areas along the Gulf Coast and develop strategies with the potential to
mitigate these effects. The chartered team recommended that the Bureau
consult with state and regional officials (from the Gulf Coast) on how
to make LUCA as successful as possible, and hold special LUCA workshops
for geographic areas identified by the Bureau as needing additional
assistance. While the Bureau (through its chartered team, headquarters
staff and Dallas regional office) has proposed several changes to the
2010 LUCA Program for the Gulf Coast region, there are no specific
plans for implementing the proposed changes.
In summary, Mr. Chairman, we recognize the Bureau faces formidable
challenges in successfully implementing a redesigned decennial census.
It must also overcome significant challenges of a demographic and
socioeconomic nature due to the nation's increasing diversity in
language, ethnicity, households, and housing type, as well as an
increase in the reluctance of the population to participate in the
census. The need to enumerate in the areas devastated by hurricanes
Katrina and Rita is one more significant difficulty the Bureau faces.
We applaud the moves the Bureau has undertaken to redesign the census;
we have stated in the past, and believe still, that the reengineering,
if successful, can help control costs and improve cost effectiveness
and efficiency. Yet, there is more that the Bureau can do in examining
and refining its recruiting, hiring, and training practices and in
preparing to enumerate in the hurricane-affected areas. Also, the
functionality and usability of the MCD--a key piece of hardware in the
reengineered census---bears watching as does the oversight and
management of information technology investments. All told, these areas
continue to call for risk mitigation plans by the Bureau and careful
monitoring and oversight by the Commerce Department, the Office of
Management and Budget, the Congress, GAO, and other key stakeholders.
As in the past, we look forward to supporting this subcommittee's
oversight efforts to promote a timely, complete, accurate, and cost-
effective census.
Contact and Acknowledgments:
For further information regarding this testimony, please contact Mathew
J. Scire on (202) 512-6806, or by email at sciremj@gao.gov.
Individuals making contributions to this testimony included Betty
Clark, Carlos Hazera, Shirley Hwang, Andrea Levine, Lisa Pearson, Mark
Ryan, Niti Tandon, and Timothy Wexler.
[End of section]
Appendix I: Related GAO Products:
2010 Census: Redesigned Approach Holds Promise, but Census Bureau Needs
to Annually Develop and Provide a Comprehensive Project Plan to Monitor
Costs. GAO-06-1009T. Washington, D.C.: July 27, 2006.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to Resolve Long-
standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges. GAO-06-272.
Washington, D.C.: June 15, 2006.
2010 Census: Costs and Risks Must be Closely Monitored and Evaluated
with Mitigation Plans in Place. GAO-06-822T. Washington, D.C.: June 6,
2006.
2010 Census: Census Bureau Generally Follows Selected Leading
Acquisition Planning Practices, but Continued Management Attention Is
Needed to Help Ensure Success. GAO-06-277. Washington, D.C.: May 18,
2006.
Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management of Key
2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done. GAO-06-444T. Washington,
D.C.: March 1, 2006.
2010 Census: Planning and Testing Activities Are Making Progress. GAO-
06-465T. Washington D.C.: March 1, 2006.
Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has Implemented Many
Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed. GAO-05-661.
Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005.
2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining Challenges Need
Prompt Resolution. GAO-05-09. Washington, D.C.: January 12, 2005.
Data Quality: Census Bureau Needs to Accelerate Efforts to Develop and
Implement Data Quality Review Standards. GAO-05-86. Washington, D.C.:
November 17, 2004.
Census 2000: Design Choices Contributed to Inaccuracies in Coverage
Evaluation Estimates. GAO-05-71. Washington, D.C.: November 12, 2004.
American Community Survey: Key Unresolved Issues. GAO-05-82.
Washington, D.C.: October 8, 2004.
2010 Census: Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Decennial
Census Would Not Be Cost-Effective. GAO-04-898. Washington, D.C.:
August 19, 2004.
2010 Census: Overseas Enumeration Test Raises Need for Clear Policy
Direction. GAO-04-470. Washington, D.C.: May 21, 2004.
2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon. GAO-04-
37. Washington, D.C.: January 15, 2004.
Decennial Census: Lessons Learned for Locating and Counting Migrant and
Seasonal Farm Workers. GAO-03-605. Washington, D.C.: July 3, 2003.
Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Hispanic
Subgroup Data Need Refinement. GAO-03-228. Washington, D.C.: January
17, 2003.
Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Data on the
Homeless and Others Without Conventional Housing Need Refinement. GAO-
03-227. Washington, D.C.: January 17, 2003.
2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective 2010
Census. GAO-03-40. Washington, D.C.: October 31, 2002.
The American Community Survey: Accuracy and Timeliness Issues. GAO-02-
956R. Washington, D.C.: September 30, 2002.
FOOTNOTES
[1] GAO, 2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining
Challenges Need Prompt Resolution, GAO-05-9 (Washington, D.C.: Jan. 12,
2005) and GAO, 2000 Census: Contingency Planning Needed to Address Risk
That Pose a Threat to a Successful Census, GAO/GGD-00-6 (Washington,
D.C.: Dec. 14, 1999).
[2] GAO, 2000 Census: Review of Partnership Program Highlights Best
Practices for Future Operations, GAO-01-579 (Washington, D.C.: Aug. 20,
2001).
[3] GAO/GGD-00-06.
[4] GAO-05-9.
[5] GAO, Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management
of Key 2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done, GAO-06-444T
(Washington, D.C.: Mar. 1, 2006).
[6] Department of Commerce, Office of Inspector General, Improving Our
Measure of America: What the 2004 Census Test Can Teach Us in Planning
for the 2010 Decennial Census, OIG-16949 (Washington, D.C.: September
2004).
[7] Bureau officials told us that final results of this study are not
yet available.
[8] GAO-05-9.
[9] Department of Commerce OIG, OIG-16949.
[10] The MCDs developed by Harris will not include software that will
allow field staff to play games during training.
[11] Department of Commerce OIG, OIG-16949.
[12] Department of Commerce OIG, OIG-16949.
[13] As previously discussed, these sessions aimed to obtain
information that will improve Bureau procedures, including training. We
reviewed summaries of debriefings conducted for three operations--NRFU,
update/enumerate, and address canvassing.
[14] GAO-05-9.
[15] The period for local review and update of addresses and maps for
the 2010 LUCA Program is August 2007-March 2008.
[16] The "Road Home" Program was implemented by the State of Louisiana
to provide compensation of up to $150,000 for eligible homeowners
affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
[17] GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to
Resolve Long-standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges, GAO-
06-272 (Wash. D.C.: June 15, 2006), and GAO, 2010 Census: Costs and
Risks Must be Closely Monitored and Evaluated with Mitigation Plans in
Place, GAO-06-822T (Wash. D.C.: June 6, 2006).
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