Mortgage Financing
FHA's Fund Has Grown, but Options for Drawing on the Fund Have Uncertain Outcomes Gao ID: GAO-01-460 February 28, 2001The Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund has maintained an economic value of at least two percent of the Fund's insurance-in-force, as required by law. GAO's and the Department of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) analysis show that the Fund had an economic value of $15.8 billion (3.20 percent) and $16.6 billion (3.66 percent), respectively. Given the economic value of the Fund and the state of the economy at the end of fiscal year 1999, a two-percent capital ratio appears sufficient to withstand moderately severe economic downturns that could lead to worse-than-expected loan performance. However, under more severe economic conditions, the economic value of two percent of insurance-in-force would not be adequate. Because of the uncertainty and professional judgment associated with this type of economic analysis, GAO cautions against relying on one estimate or even a group of estimates to determine the adequacy of the Fund's reserves over the longer term. HUD could exercise several options under current legislative authority to reduce the capital ratio for the Fund. It is difficult, however, to reliably measure the impact of policy changes on the Fund's capital ratio and Federal Housing Administration borrowers without using tools designed to estimate the multiple impacts that policy changes often have. Nonetheless, any option that reduces the Fund's reserve, if not accompanied by a similar reduction in other government spending, would result in a budget surplus reduction or a deficit increase.
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